Arriva Buses (including Greenline)

[Surreyman]

That rather over-simplifies the story of the ABC network. It was designed to look at some areas after the loss of right to operate through university grounds. This meant they were competing with Safeguard. Safeguard's passengers stuck with them, but also competed on the Bellfields Route (3, then B), which terminated conveniently near their new (larger) depot. As Arriva had annoyed the passengers with the swap to minibuses with no frequency increase passengers gave Safeguard a try. The C to Stoughton was only suspended in covid times and is yet to restart. The fact that Guildford is still operating reduced timetables and has recently had a delivery of even-older-than-old buses suggests it isn't suitably profitable.

Hmm, not trying to defend Arriva particularly but the transfer in of older Mercs was all to do with needing to comply with London LEZ (Euro 6 etc) in other places.
Re the ABC set up, I include myself as a loyal Safeguard customer, (well pre covid I was)but from personal observation (Not exactly scientific I know), the Royal Surrey Hospital generates increasing numbers of passengers, many of which are to/from the rail station, most will jump on the first bus going to/from the hospital - Arriva/Safeguard, some try to board Stagecoach 1/2 even though it takes longer via UNI & drivers are fed with telling them.
On the plus side we have seen the back of the Streetlites (I personally detest Streetlites - ok, ok personal taste etc).
Having now read the Telegraph article, it seems that Arriva UK is going to be around for a while yet, the writer believes that the Arriva Transport empire (excluding UK) is now being divided up into keep/dispose parts.

 

[Robertj21a]

I don't know what the success of Metrobus was in Crawley. Local management? Attention to detail? Investment? Certainly, the record of that part of Go-Ahead is consistently good.

As for who could acquire Guildford, should Arriva elect to sell, you'd think that there was sufficient competition locally to allow Stagecoach to buy, but you could also have Rotala relatively close by.

Metrobus Crawley succeeded where Arriva failed largely down to the quality of the managements involved.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

On the plus side we have seen the back of the Streetlites (I personally detest Streetlites - ok, ok personal taste etc).
Having now read the Telegraph article, it seems that Arriva UK is going to be around for a while yet, the writer believes that the Arriva Transport empire (excluding UK) is now being divided up into keep/dispose parts.

The Streetlites may have gone but the age of the fleet is quite mature in Guildford with some rather peachy Citaros and e200s. Not certain a 14 year old e200 is worse than a Streetlite.

I think there's a certain fraternity who get quite excited about who could buy what. As was shown in the First thread, people got very excited about Livingston depot being sold (to Lothian or Go-Ahead) and yet failed to predict the sale of the London ops. Arriva UK Bus is still a cash generative business (or was til 16 March 2020-ish) but it needs to be freed from the malaise of DB's deal or no deal (lack of direction and ambition, limits on capex) as well as the wider Arriva culture.

Metrobus Crawley succeeded where Arriva failed largely down to the quality of the managements involved.

Yes, though I think how the better quality management changed things is the pertinent point.

 

[duncombec]

Hmm, not trying to defend Arriva particularly but the transfer in of older Mercs was all to do with needing to comply with London LEZ (Euro 6 etc) in other places.
[...]
On the plus side we have seen the back of the Streetlites (I personally detest Streetlites - ok, ok personal taste etc).
[...]

The Streetlites may have gone but the age of the fleet is quite mature in Guildford with some rather peachy Citaros and e200s. Not certain a 14 year old e200 is worse than a Streetlite.
[...]

That it was the LEZ this time around is true, but previous occasions have removed newer vehicles from Guildford.

Having said Streetlites now appear on his local route (minus branding, still in Sapphire colours), I'll take the 14 year old Enviro over a 5 year old Streetlite any day. At least I come off the former with my hearing intact. On the bright side, three of them were painted last month - in Derby!

 

[A0wen]

Metrobus Crawley succeeded where Arriva failed largely down to the quality of the managements involved.

You're assuming the management team was new and wasn't TUPE'd over as could easily have been the case in the event of a sale.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

You're assuming the management team was new and wasn't TUPE'd over as could easily have been the case in the event of a sale.

Depends what level of management. The local day-to-day management (e.g. supervisors) would have transferred across but perhaps not the senior management (MD, FD, etc) who would have been running the former London and Country business? Mind you, it's been hacked around so much, can't remember when Arriva in Surrey/Sussex was merged into Southern Counties.

 

[Robertj21a]

You're assuming the management team was new and wasn't TUPE'd over as could easily have been the case in the event of a sale.

The Metrobus management was new to Crawley and replaced the Arriva management that had lost respect and credibility with their staff.

 

[KendalKing]

This was said so many times during the First period post 2012 that if someone comes along with the right money.....

The reality is that Arriva UK Bus is still seen as a core business. There will be the odd opportunity (I can think of a couple of ones) as a tactical divestment but not really. However, to save people the time and trouble of endless speculation, looking at the map and saying X would be a good fit for Y...

Arriva operation	Spurious purchaser	"Logic"
Colchester	First/Go Ahead	Would be a good fit for First Essex or Hedingham
Southend	First/Ensign	Would be a good fit for First Essex or Ensign who might wish to grow their business
Kent and Sussex	Go Ahead/Stagecoach	Go Ahead run into Tunbridge Wells with Metrobus and Brighton & Hove, whilst Stagecoach run into Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells from Hastings and Ashford
Wales	Stagecoach	Already share Chester and could be a way to develop their limited Wirral/Chester business
Manchester (NW)	First	Share the Arriva Bolton depot already and might want to add some more sites to bolster their Oldham operations

....and you can go on ad infinitum, and the logic is indisputable. A bit like the study into ley lines that showed not only were they aligned to important structures by and large but, by employing the same logic, they were also aligned with Woolworths stores

I think the sale of Arriva is going to be less interesting.

ps It's not aimed at you but we did have many similar speculative statements on First

First taking-over Bolton, would make a lot of sense. Especially when you consider that Bolton depot, is owned by the Jarvis family, and Andrew Jarvis, is a senior manager at First.

 

[markymark2000]

Manchester will likely be held onto unless they get a very generous offer as they will just end up milking TFGMs 'generous' compensation if they buy the depots and operations.

Why give something up cheaply when you know a PTE will bite your arm off for the ops. The only other potential for Manchester I think is Abelio trying to get their foot in the door early.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Manchester will likely be held onto unless they get a very generous offer as they will just end up milking TFGMs 'generous' compensation if they buy the depots and operations.

What is the compensation offered by TfGM?

 

[markymark2000]

What is the compensation offered by TfGM?

I'm sure it was mentioned in one of the documents that operators would be generously compensated.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'm sure it was mentioned in one of the documents that operators would be generously compensated.

I genuinely not certain what was mentioned. I seem to recall it was pretty hard nosed. It was certainly the case that there is no compensation for loss of "goodwill" or the worth of the business. Similarly, they aren't taking on the fleet. What they were going to do was to compulsorily purchase some of the depot premises at a "fair market value". Those that were listed at strategic ones included the Rotala Bolton depot but not the Arriva one? Not certain on Wythenshawe

Now I think there's been some change on the depot side of things so that you're not now obliged to sell the depot and you can retain it if you wish. I confess I'm not up to speed on the changes but I don't think there's anything generous just the market value of 10 depot sites.

 

[markymark2000]

I genuinely not certain what was mentioned. I seem to recall it was pretty hard nosed. It was certainly the case that there is no compensation for loss of "goodwill" or the worth of the business. Similarly, they aren't taking on the fleet. What they were going to do was to compulsorily purchase some of the depot premises at a "fair market value". Those that were listed at strategic ones included the Rotala Bolton depot but not the Arriva one? Not certain on Wythenshawe

Now I think there's been some change on the depot side of things so that you're not now obliged to sell the depot and you can retain it if you wish. I confess I'm not up to speed on the changes but I don't think there's anything generous just the market value of 10 depot sites.

If things have changed, maybe they won't wait then. I can't see them doing much though unless they get a generous off since selling the depot for franchising if the combined authority will take it, it's an easy way of ridding the depot. Buses can be moved to other divisions if they have any left.

 

[Ken H]

If things have changed, maybe they won't wait then. I can't see them doing much though unless they get a generous off since selling the depot for franchising if the combined authority will take it, it's an easy way of ridding the depot. Buses can be moved to other divisions if they have any left.

Whats to stop an operator moving out of county then running in competition with the franchised services on a commercial basis?

 

[markymark2000]

Whats to stop an operator moving out of county then running in competition with the franchised services on a commercial basis?

Similar to as in London, they will likely have a permit scheme in place to ensure that any routes from outside companies do not unfairly compete with the franchised network and only compliment it.

 

[Typhoon]

Death by a thousands cuts does seem to be standard, in line with the comments on profitability posted upthread by @M803UYA . Not sure about KCC routes, aside from the Sunday 401, they seem to mainly Evening/Sunday tenders. They are more exposes to contracts in Medway, though, albeit not on major routes. Also worth noting the Fastrack routes at Northfleet and the X1/X2 to Kings Hill are, I believe, some form of tender (the current vehicles on Fasttrack were "borrowed" from elsewhere to meet seating requirements).

My fault, I intended to ignore Northfleet/ Thameside as I don't know much about it but got carried away (also there is some subsidy arrangement with developers over routes on Ebbsfleet Valley where they have replaced the conventional routes by Arriva Click). I think there is a similar deal with Liberty, the developers, over the Kings Hill routes. I'm not certain how involved Kent County Council (KCC) are, except the buses that were used formerly ran on Fastrak routes.
For some reason I thought Go-Coach ran the 401. I note that the scheduled Sunday service is markedly better than that on any other day of the week!

Most current Kent independents seem fairly happy with their territory and know their limits. Most "expansion" has been on the back of tenders, and whilst there is nothing to say they wouldn't be interested in a route of two (who'd have picked Compass Bus for the 228/229?) I can't see any "purchases". Presumably Chalkwell could have put in an offer for Sheerness depot had they wished, but instead focussed on the specific routes being given up, on similar timetables, rather than promising the earth.

Exactly, they expand gradually, confident that they can take on additional work without too much hassle. I notice that Chalkwell have lost a couple of school runs well outside their area, maybe they feel they don't need them anymore. The Sheppey work they have timetabled will only require 4 or 5 buses, probably not worth taking on the depot.
228/ 229 went to Seaford and District first (an even odder choice), I would have thought someone like Autocar was a better fit, however, I'm not that convinced there is much money in the service. I travelled on it a couple of times in the Arriva days, the drivers seemed glad of the company. Crowborough rather seems like car country, and the Tunbridge to Crowborough is replicated by Brighton & Hove so perhaps they wisely decided not to bid. Compass seem to be rather more expansive than Kent independents and were in Uckfield and East Grinstead already.

I believe the 6X is a hospital contract, so whether they keep it or not is not entirely in their control!

Agreed, I am sure they would like to keep it, though. Pre-pandemic I used it from time to time, although my day saver wasn't always popular; it tended to be pretty full.

 

[duncombec]

My fault, I intended to ignore Northfleet/ Thameside as I don't know much about it but got carried away (also there is some subsidy arrangement with developers over routes on Ebbsfleet Valley where they have replaced the conventional routes by Arriva Click). I think there is a similar deal with Liberty, the developers, over the Kings Hill routes. I'm not certain how involved Kent County Council (KCC) are, except the buses that were used formerly ran on Fastrak routes.
For some reason I thought Go-Coach ran the 401. I note that the scheduled Sunday service is markedly better than that on any other day of the week!

I'm not sure how Click works, but I'm fairly certain the other two (Fastrack and Kings Hill) are Kent County Council (KCC) contracts with developer funding. There is a press release here for the X1/X2, https://kccmediahub.net/launch-kings-hill-connect-x1-x2-services745, which says

The services will be operated by Arriva using KCC-owned vehicles. The service is being funded through the development at Kings Hill by Liberty Property Trust, the Kings Hill estate developer.

which sounds like Sec. 106 or similar to me. Fastrack is here, https://www.communityad.co.uk/arriva-wins-contract-fastrack-b-service-13th-year/,

Arriva has successfully retained the Fastrack B contract for the Kent Thameside area. This will be the 13th year that the bus operator has worked to deliver the award winning route on behalf of Kent County Council.

Go-Coach do run the 401 (now numbered 1) between Sevenoaks and Westerham during the week, but the Sunday service is a hybrid of that and the 402, running through to Tunbridge Wells on KCC tender.

228/ 229 went to Seaford and District first (an even odder choice), I would have thought someone like Autocar was a better fit, however, I'm not that convinced there is much money in the service. I travelled on it a couple of times in the Arriva days, the drivers seemed glad of the company. Crowborough rather seems like car country, and the Tunbridge to Crowborough is replicated by Brighton & Hove so perhaps they wisely decided not to bid. Compass seem to be rather more expansive than Kent independents and were in Uckfield and East Grinstead already.

It was originally picked up (again, not "sold") by Seaford in their expansionist phase. The Uckfield/East Grinstead services and the 228/9 passed to Compass when Seaford withdrew from that sphere of operation. It is basically a Crowborough and Jarvis Brook local service with a run to Tunbridge Wells tacked on, competing as you say with the Brighton & Hove 29. Whether it is picking up more people whilst the 29 remains half-hourly off-peak I'm not sure. The fact that it was a 30-minute commercial service and is now a 90-minute subsidised service is perhaps telling...

There is also a press release from KCC in March that they have given the go-ahead for a Dover Fastrack scheme here: https://kccmediahub.net/kent-county-council-approve-plans-for-dover-fastrack745;

Kent County Council has approved plans for Dover Fastrack, a rapid bus transit system connecting Whitfield with Dover town centre and Dover Priory railway station. [...] Construction is expected to start in early 2022 with the first buses running from summer 2023.

I think we can pretty certain Arriva won't be running that one!

 

[317 forever]

I agree - I was not expecting one of these smaller companies to buy Arriva K&S, but to take on selected routes or group of routes near their existing operating territory.



How did Metrobus make such a success of Crawley when Arriva couldn't? Was it just lucky timing in that Airport routes were just starting to be popular when Arrive pulled out? Did Metrobus invest time and money in establishing what routes and frequencies were required? Did they enhance frequencies and market the network effectively?



But who could take over Guildford? Safeguard is probably too small; Metrobus is too far away. Would Stagecoach take over completely?

I doubt Stagecoach would purchase Arriva Guildford but may step in if they withdrew certain routes, such as routes 34 & 35 to Camberley.

 

[Robertj21a]

Stagecoach, Compass and Safeguard could mop up all the Arriva Guildford routes if necessary.

 

[Surreyman]

Stagecoach, Compass and Safeguard could mop up all the Arriva Guildford routes if necessary.

They might be a bit pushed for Depot space!
Stagecoach have a depot in Peasmarsh, which consists of a single story maintenance block, and a basic yard for parking.
Compass simply have an outstation in Dunsfold Park.
Safeguard took a long time to find their current depot in Jacobs Well, it can accomodate the current fleet, not much room for any more.
Arriva's Leas Road depot would be a very valuable site if demolished and used for housing.

 

[Typhoon]

Notices and Proceedings for London and the South East record Stagecoach registering services X3, X4 - Canterbury - Sittingbourne - Maidstone, extending the current 3X service (and reinstating the service via Ospringe during the off-peak) from 1st August. The latter section duplicates the existing 334 Arriva route operated by the soon-to-close Sheerness Depot. Either Stagecoach is being predatory (that section of route is not that well used that it can justify 4 buses an hour) or Arriva's retrenchment in Kent is not over. If it is the latter, it leaves the remaining part of the 334 - Sheerness to Sittingbourne unserved. It also may call into question the continued provision of the Sittingbourne locals.

There is a timetable for X3 and X4 on bustimes.org.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Notices and Proceedings for London and the South East record Stagecoach registering services X3, X4 - Canterbury - Sittingbourne - Maidstone, extending the current 3X service (and reinstating the service via Ospringe during the off-peak) from 1st August. The latter section duplicates the existing 334 Arriva route operated by the soon-to-close Sheerness Depot. Either Stagecoach is being predatory (that section of route is not that well used that it can justify 4 buses an hour) or Arriva's retrenchment in Kent is not over. If it is the latter, it leaves the remaining part of the 334 - Sheerness to Sittingbourne unserved. It also may call into question the continued provision of the Sittingbourne locals.

There is a timetable for X3 and X4 on bustimes.org.

That is an interesting development, and like you, I'd be intrigued to see what the truth of the matter is. It would fit with the template that has been successfully employed by Stagecoach in the past in nibbling away at the margins of an existing (and complacent) operator through tendered or commercial developments.

 

[TitanMike]

That is an interesting development, and like you, I'd be intrigued to see what the truth of the matter is. It would fit with the template that has been successfully employed by Stagecoach in the past in nibbling away at the margins of an existing (and complacent) operator through tendered or commercial developments.

I believe the X3/XX4 will have no Sunday service from what I can see. Even so I should imagine the Sheerness to Maidstone route 334 does well, so hopefully this will remain. Its just the Maidstone to Sittingbourne section which could possibly be over bussed.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I believe the X3/XX4 will have no Sunday service from what I can see. Even so I should imagine the Sheerness to Maidstone route 334 does well, so hopefully this will remain. Its just the Maidstone to Sittingbourne section which could possibly be over bussed.

I think @Typhoon was suggesting that it might be a nudge to get Arriva out of Sittingbourne. Faversham was historically the boundary between Maidstone & District (Arriva) and East Kent (Stagecoach) so it's an incursion.

 

[Typhoon]

I think @Typhoon was suggesting that it might be a nudge to get Arriva out of Sittingbourne. Faversham was historically the boundary between Maidstone & District (Arriva) and East Kent (Stagecoach) so it's an incursion.

I think you have hit the nail on the head with 'might', we know what is due to happen but not why; if it had just appeared on bustimes.org, I wouldn't have bothered with reporting but the registration is something else (the other two registrations recorded are definitely going ahead). The first announcements that Arriva were pulling out of Sheerness were on social media and the local media, then local independents before Arriva. Stagecoach extended the 3 to Sittingbourne from Faversham a few years ago, as a result two years ago Arriva cut their 333 back to operate just between Sittingbourne and Faversham, and trimmed the number of journeys six months later; as an occasional user of the service I know that there will have been passengers who would then have to change at Sittingbourne for school/ college or work, maybe Stagecoach have picked up on that. Arriva culled the 333 at the very start of this year leaving a section unbussed which Stagecoach picked up during peaks. Stagecoach must think it is worth extending the route to Maidstone, they are doing so because they think they can make money from it. They could be wrong, they were with the M2. It could be that they don't think Arriva is up for a fight (the last time I was in Sittingbourne - just before the pandemic - Arriva was a dirty word regarding punctuality and reliability, the A249 over Detling Hill is notorious for traffic jams). Alternatively, they may have heard rumours.

Previously Stagecoach has experimented within their own area, maybe infringing on the work of an independent, but this is different. As you report, Faversham had long been the boundary town but by offering an alternative route to Sittingbourne, which ulimately drove Arriva out, the boundary moved back to Sittingbourne which itself is precarious with Sheerness being due for closure. Arriva will operate the locals from Gillingham, despite them having no bus service between the two towns. Whatever has caused Stagecoach to introduce these routes, we will need to wait and see but from August, they will have a fairly significant presence in the town, from nothing just a few years ago.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I think you have hit the nail on the head with 'might', we know what is due to happen but not why; if it had just appeared on bustimes.org, I wouldn't have bothered with reporting but the registration is something else (the other two registrations recorded are definitely going ahead). The first announcements that Arriva were pulling out of Sheerness were on social media and the local media, then local independents before Arriva. Stagecoach extended the 3 to Sittingbourne from Faversham a few years ago, as a result two years ago Arriva cut their 333 back to operate just between Sittingbourne and Faversham, and trimmed the number of journeys six months later; as an occasional user of the service I know that there will have been passengers who would then have to change at Sittingbourne for school/ college or work, maybe Stagecoach have picked up on that. Arriva culled the 333 at the very start of this year leaving a section unbussed which Stagecoach picked up during peaks. Stagecoach must think it is worth extending the route to Maidstone, they are doing so because they think they can make money from it. They could be wrong, they were with the M2. It could be that they don't think Arriva is up for a fight (the last time I was in Sittingbourne - just before the pandemic - Arriva was a dirty word regarding punctuality and reliability, the A249 over Detling Hill is notorious for traffic jams). Alternatively, they may have heard rumours.

Previously Stagecoach has experimented within their own area, maybe infringing on the work of an independent, but this is different. As you report, Faversham had long been the boundary town but by offering an alternative route to Sittingbourne, which ulimately drove Arriva out, the boundary moved back to Sittingbourne which itself is precarious with Sheerness being due for closure. Arriva will operate the locals from Gillingham, despite them having no bus service between the two towns. Whatever has caused Stagecoach to introduce these routes, we will need to wait and see but from August, they will have a fairly significant presence in the town, from nothing just a few years ago.

As I think we agree, we don't know the full facts behind this. Are Arriva drawing in their horns further or is this a speculative incursion by Stagecoach? Certainly, the M2 was a bold move and those things don't always pay off. This is an existing corridor though with insufficient revenues to sustain two operators I'd suggest.

There has long been a pattern whereby Stagecoach have incrementally extended their patch in various territories. What sort of reaction we see from Arriva will be interesting.

 

[Typhoon]

As I think we agree, we don't know the full facts behind this. Are Arriva drawing in their horns further or is this a speculative incursion by Stagecoach? Certainly, the M2 was a bold move and those things don't always pay off. This is an existing corridor though with insufficient revenues to sustain two operators I'd suggest.

There has long been a pattern whereby Stagecoach have incrementally extended their patch in various territories. What sort of reaction we see from Arriva will be interesting.

Put much more succinctly than I did. Not something we have seen much of in the south east though, except when they have taken over the work of (usually ailing) independents.

 

[JL1]

Personally I think Arriva should sell Southend and maybe Colchester as well. I have heard very good things about Ensignbus so it would be great if they were to take over Arriva's routes in Southend

 

[Robertj21a]

Personally I think Arriva should sell Southend and maybe Colchester as well. I have heard very good things about Ensignbus so it would be great if they were to take over Arriva's routes in Southend

Ensign's are too good for Southend or Colchester.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Personally I think Arriva should sell Southend and maybe Colchester as well. I have heard very good things about Ensignbus so it would be great if they were to take over Arriva's routes in Southend

It would seem that Colchester is a more marginal operation that Arriva have already sold once and has a fleet profile that reflects that. Southend has seemingly been able to justify investment so assume that is more profitable and won't be something that Arriva would be interested in disposing of.