It seems to me, despite the more left leaning brigade, that the biggest threat to the current TOC model is the complete lack of profits (or in many cases, horrendous losses).
I haven't seen a TOC deliver more than 3-5% return on capital, which is dreadful considering most private companies deliver anywhere between 10-50% depending on the sector. If you combine this with the massive losses that are easy to make (because of delayed infrastructure and other stuff out of the TOCs hands), this is a fools game.
We've already seen a collapse in the number of bidders for future TOCs. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if there are 0 or just 1 bidder in future, which makes a mockery of the whole process.
Could it be, ironically, that privatised trains are so hard to make money out of that the whole thing grinds to a halt. This, of course, wouldn't be without precedent, as the original rail system from Victorian times until nationalisation was pretty spectacularly unprofitable.
I haven't seen a TOC deliver more than 3-5% return on capital, which is dreadful considering most private companies deliver anywhere between 10-50% depending on the sector. If you combine this with the massive losses that are easy to make (because of delayed infrastructure and other stuff out of the TOCs hands), this is a fools game.
We've already seen a collapse in the number of bidders for future TOCs. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if there are 0 or just 1 bidder in future, which makes a mockery of the whole process.
Could it be, ironically, that privatised trains are so hard to make money out of that the whole thing grinds to a halt. This, of course, wouldn't be without precedent, as the original rail system from Victorian times until nationalisation was pretty spectacularly unprofitable.