Whilst theres a case in some parts of the country, Im amazed that any proponent of guided busways would suggest commuter routes into central London. Theres certainly a role for guided busways (Im not so blinkered that I assume that heavy rail is the answer to every problem), but heavy rail is the clear winner on that market.
For a start, youre never going to be able to replace a heavily loaded twelve coach train with an equivalent number of seats on a bus think of the logistics of hundreds of buses chasing each other along a busway several times a minute - e.g. if you assume that a double decker bus has around seventy five seats which is essentially as many as a single railway carriage though the commuter layout on modern units means that they can accommodate maybe a hundred passengers, maybe more, so a twelve coach train every five minutes at rush hour might need to be replaced by fifteen double deckers (maybe twenty is theres no standing?) in the same five minute window.
Logically, how do you park all of those buses in central London and get them back out again?
How do you deal with safe breaking distances (when theres a fast bus every twenty seconds at rush hour)?
How do you get all of those people off as quickly as the two wide doors on each train carriage?
Whilst railway staff arent cheap, replacing one driver and one conductor with twenty bus drivers is a false economy!
How do you deal with the fuel bills, given that fifteen/twenty buses will require more fuel than one EMU?
What about the pollution of putting lots more diesel buses through central London (in place of an electric train), at a time when theres a move to lower emissions?
The whole thing is a non starter.
Now, if you wanted to suggest a guided busway then there are some areas that seem good candidates.
Washington (Tyne & Wear) could be a possibility, given that its a large place not served by rail, where the spread of housing, employment and shopping would make it hard for heavy rail to penetrate most of the town.
A guided busway from Heworth (either on the path of the Leamside line or a different alignment) would allow a frequent service from Tyneside to Washington (either through services from Newcastle, or connecting with the Metro at Heworth), but then allow different routes to serve Concord/ Galleries/ Nissan/ residential areas/ retail parks etc much more effectively than one train station could.
Same goes for Northumberland where a guided busway could funnel the large amount of traffic from Blyth/ Ashington/ Bedlington/ Cramlington into Newcastle, but heavy rail wouldnt be able to serve the variety of places very easily (given how spread out the towns are, especially Cramlington).
Plus, as weve seen in Edinburgh, a successful guided busway can be upgraded to a tram route at a later stage.
This is something that those complaining about the successful guided busway in Cambridgeshire forget a heavy rail service wouldnt be able to reach the various residential areas of St Ives, nor would it serve attractions like the Hospital in Cambridge the Cambridgeshire scheme couldnt be as easily served by the bluntness of heavy rail.
However, if you are talking commuter routes into London then high capacity heavy rail is the clear winner if you can pack a thousand people onto a commuter train doing point to point journeys then theres nothing that beats heavy rail. BUT, thats not to say that heavy rail is always the solution for everything and that theres no role for guided buses just not the one that this Think Tank is suggesting. Trouble is, any suggestion on here that heavy rail isnt always the answer risks being accused of being a Serpel apologist...
Bit of an own goal for them to chose an example where heavy rail is the clear winner. If theyd used the example of where a guided busway may be more effective than reopening a line to heavy rail (where theres been a move to low density suburbia, office parks and out of town retail parks, meaning a station in the old town centre wouldnt be as attractive as when a line was closed in the 1960s) then they may have made a better point. But then, I suspect that this was more about getting short term press releases into the media than offering any sensible long term strategy.