Capacity Constraints Causing Higher Ticket Prices on EMR London Routes?

[Jozhua]

Hi,
I thought I'd start a dedicated thread, asking if constrained capacity due to engineering, the delays on class 810 introduction and general lack of rail capacity across the network is resulting in higher prices on EMR London to Nottingham/Sheffield routes.

Additionally, what impacts this has on your travel. E.g. do you use an alternative rail route, coaches or drive now due to the pricing?

From my perspective, I've noticed that the cheap advances sell faster and are more expensive than they used to be. Being a recently qualified driver, I've not used EMR to travel to London since, opting instead to drive closer and use Thameslink/West Midlands Trains from Peterborough or Milton Keynes.

 

[life210]

Travelling from Derby, I opt for Avanti from Lichfield Trent Valley. Generally save around a third with advances for the coming month - has a small impact of around 15 minutes but worth the saving

 

[43074]

Additionally, what impacts this has on your travel. E.g. do you use an alternative rail route, coaches or drive now due to the pricing?

There is an awful lot of demand from the catchment area served by EMR London trains which use alternative routes. To be fair to EMR the journey times are competitive on the whole (Sunday morning or Corby diversions excepted!) so it's definitely driven by the fares.

From the Leicester area I've heard of people driving down the M1 to Rugby, Luton Airport Parkway or Stanmore/Hendon and taking the train or tube from there. You can often get quite a good fare and reasonable journey time by rail via Nuneaton as well, albeit you have to do it with split tickets.

I doubt delayed 810 introduction has much of an impact as they only have around 50 extra Standard seats per 5-car unit compared to a 222, depending how many 10-cars EMR plan to run I can't imagine that causing a massive price drop but would be very happy to be proven wrong!

 

[A S Leib]

I go via Tamworth far more than via Kettering. The 'not via London' super off-peak returns* from Hemel Hempstead and St. Albans City to Derby are the same price (£49.20 with a railcard) but splitting at Tamworth brings it down to £31.35 compared to £39.50 splitting at Bedford and Kettering, and the need to change at Luton, Kettering and Leicester plus the bus to St. Albans makes Tamworth a lot more favourable.

*I use advance tickets most of the time anyway, but as you said, they're much easier to find for Trent Valley stations than for the Midland Mainline.

 

[QSK19]

I now proactively research & use split ticketing and will sometimes drive to Newark to catch the ECML. I’ll also sometimes swap to a 360 at Kettering when travelling to STP - it adds another half an hour onto the journey, but it’s worth it to have a much quieter, less crowded journey.

On the note of the ECML, despite the ironing board seats aboard the Azumas, I find LNER a more efficient and reliable service. The Meridians are overcrowded and tired: a shame, because I loved travelling on them when they first came to the MML.

The MML is the poor relation and it shows. Hopefully the 810s will restore some faith once they eventually enter service.

 

[Belperpete]

This seems a bit of a turnaround. When I lived in Derby, EMR were the cheap route to London, certainly compared to the West Coast. Okay, you could do it cheaper by going to Tamworth and then on the stopper to London, but that took forever.

I hated the Meridians, and rued the demise of the HSTs.

 

[Jozhua]

There is an awful lot of demand from the catchment area served by EMR London trains which use alternative routes. To be fair to EMR the journey times are competitive on the whole (Sunday morning or Corby diversions excepted!) so it's definitely driven by the fares.

From the Leicester area I've heard of people driving down the M1 to Rugby, Luton Airport Parkway or Stanmore/Hendon and taking the train or tube from there. You can often get quite a good fare and reasonable journey time by rail via Nuneaton as well, albeit you have to do it with split tickets.

I doubt delayed 810 introduction has much of an impact as they only have around 50 extra Standard seats per 5-car unit compared to a 222, depending how many 10-cars EMR plan to run I can't imagine that causing a massive price drop but would be very happy to be proven wrong!

I've wondered similar. I live in Nottingham and hardly use EMR to get south of Leicester.

It's not journey times that is the issue, rather cost, overcrowding and to an extent reliability (although ECML and WCML are hardly better).

Obviously there were many debates about the sufficiency of capacity the 810s were to deliver. While they obviously deliver an increase in seats, given how many people avoid using MML services altogether due to price and lack of seats, I doubt it'll be long before they are full again and people are priced back into road or other rail routes.

I'm going down south next week, needless to say I will be driving.

 

[tram21]

When booking really far in advance, EMR are always best.

However booking closer to the time, it's changing at Kettering for Connect services, or the coach. It's odd, because I've never really found the need to find a new route until the past month or so, where I've used the coach (for the first time!) twice.

 

[paul1609]

Travelling from the Kent Coast up to the north, EMR are consistantly the cheapest ex Intercity operator to the extent that its the often the cheapest way to get to Manchester or the Pennine towns via Sheffield. Outside of the school holidays the am north from London, pm return to London trains arent busy. In fact mid week in winter loadings of 15 to 25% are common.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Travelled to London on Sunday on the 0926 Sheffield-London (link to RTT)

Realtime Trains | 0926 Sheffield to St Pancras International | 11/08/2024

Real-time train running information for 0926 departure from Sheffield to St Pancras International on 11/08/2024. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Full with standing from Leicester, crush loaded after Wellingborough. I think customers trying to join at Bedford or Luton Pkway were instead directed to slower Thameslink services. I don't know whether EMR declassified on this trip.

The vestibule where I stood was extremely unpleasant and it was a relief at stops to be able to briefly open the doors and get some fresh air. Another passenger heading for a plane at Luton was not able to leave the train and got carried forward to St Pancras. I think the extra 60 seats in the new trains mean an 810 would not have been crush loaded, but still would have had significant numbers of people standing.

The sole saving grace was that it was switched to the fast lines at Harpenden to arrive a few minutes early to St Pancras.

higher prices on EMR London to Nottingham/Sheffield routes

With people I know, it is price, rather than overcrowding that seems to motivate people to drive to Rugby/Northampton/Bedford and elsewhere. It's been discussed many times previously how a lot of fares make an enormous (and in my opinion unjustified) jump between Bedford and Wellingborough.

 

[43066]

Outside of the school holidays the am north from London, pm return to London trains arent busy. In fact mid week in winter loadings of 15 to 25% are common.

Not sure when you were last on it but the loadings you describe haven’t generally been the case since the immediate aftermath of Covid, and I doubt many regular users would agree with your description in mid 2024.

Trains are consistently well loaded for most of the day (partly driven by ticketing - first “off peak” trains are often rammed) and weekends are consistently extremely busy, even without the seemingly regular major issues on either the WCML/ECML - last weekend being a case in point.

Those 810s are sorely needed…

 

[QSK19]

Full with standing from Leicester, crush loaded after Wellingborough. I think customers trying to join at Bedford or Luton Pkway were instead directed to slower Thameslink services. I don't know whether EMR declassified on this trip.

The vestibule where I stood was extremely unpleasant and it was a relief at stops to be able to briefly open the doors and get some fresh air.

Exactly why I swapped at Kettering to the 360 service. We were crammed in like sardines on the Meridian; but there were only 3 people in the whole of my carriage on the 360. Well worth the extra journey time.

 

[STINT47]

I do fear that whilst the new trains will provide more seats, there is so much superseded demand on EMR Intercity the extra capacity will soon be used up.

It's a shame electrification does not stretch further north. Some surplus EMUs could provide some crowd busting moves at busy times such as sporting events or the ECML being closed.

 

[Travelmonkey]

Capacity is definitely a kneecapper for the MML I too prefer to go via a LNWR/Avanti service from Lichfield rather than the EMR from Derby,

Although I do think it's a voyager family problem too, you only have to look at how crush loaded the Cross-country voyagers get, 4/5 coach trains on busy intercity corridors is a recipe for trouble,

 

[A0]

Exactly why I swapped at Kettering to the 360 service. We were crammed in like sardines on the Meridian; but there were only 3 people in the whole of my carriage on the 360. Well worth the extra journey time.

The OP did say it was a Sunday and on Sunday morning's there are no Connect services to/from St P until lunchtime, presumably due to engineering work.

 

[paul1609]

Not sure when you were last on it but the loadings you describe haven’t generally been the case since the immediate aftermath of Covid, and I doubt many regular users would agree with your description in mid 2024.

Trains are consistently well loaded for most of the day (partly driven by ticketing - first “off peak” trains are often rammed) and weekends are consistently extremely busy, even without the seemingly regular major issues on either the WCML/ECML - last weekend being a case in point.

Those 810s are sorely needed…

I last travelled up via Sheffield about 2 months ago.
If the trains are so crowded why can for the majority of next week I get an advance to Sheffield in the mid day northbound for around £25 to £30? On somedays its possible to get a £21.90 full price single. which I believe is the lowest tier, this is mid summer holidays less than 7 days in advance, something doesnt add up.
From Ashford Int. its barerly any more, if fact if I wanted to go to St Pancras on hs1 nest week it would be cheaper to book an advance to Sheffield and throw the ticket in the bin at St Pancras than buy a single.

 

[JonathanH]

If the trains are so crowded why can for the majority of next week I get an advance to Sheffield in the mid day northbound for around £25 to £30? On somedays its possible to get a £21.90 full price single. which I believe is the lowest tier, this is mid summer holidays less than 7 days in advance, something doesnt add up.

Isn't the point that the East Midlands to London flow in its peak (eg Saturday mornings towards London, Friday / Saturday / Sunday evening north, southbound on a weekday morning) is much busier than the reverse flow? I agree with you that you can often get good fares on EMR trains when making a journey outbound from London or inbound to London when the peak flow would be the opposite.

 

[InTheEastMids]

I swapped at Kettering to the 360 service

You can't do this on a Sunday until lunchtime. It's only 222s and in EMR's infinite wisdom, some of the late noticing services that conveniently get you to London just before lunch are not worth doubling up.

 

[Jozhua]

I last travelled up via Sheffield about 2 months ago.
If the trains are so crowded why can for the majority of next week I get an advance to Sheffield in the mid day northbound for around £25 to £30? On somedays its possible to get a £21.90 full price single. which I believe is the lowest tier, this is mid summer holidays less than 7 days in advance, something doesnt add up.
From Ashford Int. its barerly any more, if fact if I wanted to go to St Pancras on hs1 nest week it would be cheaper to book an advance to Sheffield and throw the ticket in the bin at St Pancras than buy a single.

Yeah, this is definitely running against the flows that typically go in and out of London.

It does suggest the ticket prices are very sensitive to capacity though, in how dramatically they swing.

Funnily enough, when I was using the trains on business, I was surprised how cheap they were, often getting services that arrive into London for 9am and leave around 6/7pm for less than £50 return. I often booked 3/4 weeks in advance, which helped, but I do wonder if the move towards leisure post pandemic has changed this all a lot.

In a more leisure focused railway, more standard and less first class seats seems sensible, given constrained capacity.

 

[Robertj21a]

I never use EMR, it's stupidly expensive for trips to London. Much easier and cheaper to drive to Rugby or Nuneaton.

 

[1D54]

Started going to Euston from Nuneaton but have gone back to EMR simply because i can't be doing with the hassle, i just want to get home as quickly as possible after a day out in London so i now get Leicester - Kettering tickets which sometimes can be extremely cheap for advance purchase and stay on the train using a Kettering - London zone 1-6 travel card. Having a railcard helps so it can come in at £38 which is fine with me.

 

[SLC001]

Were it ever thus? 20 years ago the MMR was far more expensive from Wellingborough to London than say Northampton to London. Our sons went to University in Loughborough or Nottingham and we always felt we were paying a premium to use the line.

 

[Jozhua]

Started going to Euston from Nuneaton but have gone back to EMR simply because i can't be doing with the hassle, i just want to get home as quickly as possible after a day out in London so i now get Leicester - Kettering tickets which sometimes can be extremely cheap for advance purchase and stay on the train using a Kettering - London zone 1-6 travel card. Having a railcard helps so it can come in at £38 which is fine with me.

Yeah anything in and out of Euston is a bit of a disaster imo. WCML bailed me out during a big storm we had a few months ago, stopped me becoming stranded in London, but other than that I steer clear.

From Nottingham I'm most tempted by Thameslink, although I've only tried the ECML offering from Peterborough.

 

[tram21]

One day in October there's engineering works between Luton & West Hampstead TL, and also between Peterborough and Doncaster, so I'm using a very interesting route!

EMR on diversion Nottingham-Leicester- Peterborough.
Then LNER from Peterborough to London, but the train starts there! It was so cheap it's like express Thameslink!

 

[ShadowKnight]

From Nottingham and driving to atherstone and getting the LNR train to Euston works well and is quite cheap. It's not much longer in total than the direct train from Nottingham

 

[yorksrob]

I definitely use the route a lot less since the HST's went. This is primarily due to overcrowding. Once I tried getting on an evening northbound service and it was only four carriages I think.

 

[Travelmonkey]

The only reason you'd need 4 coaches is for Long Eaton although there is SDO so the overhanging carriage don't release, although on doubled units calling at long Eaton the guards are typically warning from Leicester to move to the front train.

*Image: rear 222 driving cab coach that is too long for the Northbound platform at Long Eaton*

 

[yorksrob]

I assumed this was a short form of some description.

 

[jayah]

Travelled to London on Sunday on the 0926 Sheffield-London (link to RTT)

Realtime Trains | 0926 Sheffield to St Pancras International | 11/08/2024

Real-time train running information for 0926 departure from Sheffield to St Pancras International on 11/08/2024. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Full with standing from Leicester, crush loaded after Wellingborough. I think customers trying to join at Bedford or Luton Pkway were instead directed to slower Thameslink services. I don't know whether EMR declassified on this trip.

The vestibule where I stood was extremely unpleasant and it was a relief at stops to be able to briefly open the doors and get some fresh air. Another passenger heading for a plane at Luton was not able to leave the train and got carried forward to St Pancras. I think the extra 60 seats in the new trains mean an 810 would not have been crush loaded, but still would have had significant numbers of people standing.

The sole saving grace was that it was switched to the fast lines at Harpenden to arrive a few minutes early to St Pancras.


With people I know, it is price, rather than overcrowding that seems to motivate people to drive to Rugby/Northampton/Bedford and elsewhere. It's been discussed many times previously how a lot of fares make an enormous (and in my opinion unjustified) jump between Bedford and Wellingborough.

The 810s take them from 190 to 254 Standard seats on a 5 car formation. On the one hand that is 33%, on the other it is still barely half of an 8 car Class 360.

In 2005 both MML and GMWL ran 2+8 HSTs with 6 Standard trailers, each with around 375 Standard seats.

Today the latter has IETs with 580 Standard and on Sundays they are completely full for much of the day.

Meanwhile XC who probably had more like 400 Standard until 2002, as their HST buffets were Standard, have gone down to 160 on a 4 car Voyager from Plymouth to Aberdeen.

 

[RailWonderer]

Not sure when you were last on it but the loadings you describe haven’t generally been the case since the immediate aftermath of Covid, and I doubt many regular users would agree with your description in mid 2024.

Trains are consistently well loaded for most of the day (partly driven by ticketing - first “off peak” trains are often rammed) and weekends are consistently extremely busy, even without the seemingly regular major issues on either the WCML/ECML - last weekend being a case in point.

Those 810s are sorely needed…

Morning down trains have always been busier than evening up trains to London, but I'd say with a lot of passengers boarding at Leicester, capacity earlier this year when I used it was 70-80% to Sheffield and 40-50% on the return on the Friday, for Saturday the morning up trains were full.