China-Taiwan: the next conflict?

[brad465]

Hidden away by all the election news, China's holding military "punishment" drills surrounding Taiwan today:

China holds military drills around Taiwan as 'strong punishment'

The military manoeuvres come three days after William Lai was sworn in as Taiwan's president.

www.bbc.co.uk

China has started two days of military exercises around Taiwan, with its military calling them "strong punishment" for the self-ruled island's "separatist acts".
The drills come three days after the inauguration of President William Lai, who called on China to stop threatening the island and accept the existence of its democracy.
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control, but the island sees itself as distinct.
Taiwan's defence ministry condemned the Chinese drills as "irrational provocations".
Taipei dispatched naval, air, and ground forces to "defend the [island's] sovereignty", its defence ministry said.
Thursday's drills for the first time simulated a full-scale attack, Taiwanese military experts said, rather than an economic blockade.
The exercises took place all around the main island, and for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin which lie close to the Chinese coast, according to maps released by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Drills show China really doesn't like Taiwan's new president
The drills also included a component to the east of Taiwan - the island's rugged east coast on the other side of a mountain range has long been its military redoubt.
Taiwan has built much of its hardened military infrastructure along this coast, including a large underground airbase inside a mountain near the city of Hualien. It is also close to Japan’s southern islands, and a natural resupply route.
By sending naval and air patrols to the east of Taiwan, China aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
The PLA said its drills focused on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, precision strikes on key targets, and integrated operations inside and outside the island to test the "joint real combat capabilities" of its forces.
Taiwanese media cited military expert Chieh Chung saying the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan".

I'd be very surprised if there wasn't at least an ambition to invade Taiwan with drills of this nature taking place (a similar one occurred in 2022). The question is when might one be launched. President Xi is believed to be having domestic issues, including a struggling economy, so going to war would be a classic example of a failing dictator trying to distract from home issues. Furthermore, the US and allies are already stretched with Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, a third conflict involving China is the last thing we need, especially also given our dependence on China for commodities and on Taiwan for microchips (although the US passed legislation 2 years ago to bolster a domestic industry on this), if they launch this year. They could also weaken Biden somewhat by getting the US involved further militarily, however Trump's attitude towards China is well known and he could easily keep up any military action against China.

However, there are still problems for China, and also Russia and their other allies, should such a war take place. If sanctions are widely initiated this will hit their economy, which is already having problems (their data is widely believed to be inflated as well). China could also lose potential allies through the war's global impacts, and while China are providing aid for Russia's Ukraine actions, if China is focused on attacking Taiwan it won't have much if anything to spare for Russia, making life harder for them as well. Then there's what happens should China prevail in Taiwan and they decide to go further. While there are disputes with Western-aligned countries, China also has interests in far-east Russian land, India and a few others. They might be allies at the moment, but history is full of examples of dictatorship alliances eating each other later on.

 

[Cowley]

Hidden away by all the election news, China's holding military "punishment" drills surrounding Taiwan today:

China holds military drills around Taiwan as 'strong punishment'

The military manoeuvres come three days after William Lai was sworn in as Taiwan's president.

www.bbc.co.uk

I'd be very surprised if there wasn't at least an ambition to invade Taiwan with drills of this nature taking place (a similar one occurred in 2022). The question is when might one be launched. President Xi is believed to be having domestic issues, including a struggling economy, so going to war would be a classic example of a failing dictator trying to distract from home issues. Furthermore, the US and allies are already stretched with Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, a third conflict involving China is the last thing we need, especially also given our dependence on China for commodities and on Taiwan for microchips (although the US passed legislation 2 years ago to bolster a domestic industry on this), if they launch this year. They could also weaken Biden somewhat by getting the US involved further militarily, however Trump's attitude towards China is well known and he could easily keep up any military action against China.

However, there are still problems for China, and also Russia and their other allies, should such a war take place. If sanctions are widely initiated this will hit their economy, which is already having problems (their data is widely believed to be inflated as well). China could also lose potential allies through the war's global impacts, and while China are providing aid for Russia's Ukraine actions, if China is focused on attacking Taiwan it won't have much if anything to spare for Russia, making life harder for them as well. Then there's what happens should China prevail in Taiwan and they decide to go further. While there are disputes with Western-aligned countries, China also has interests in far-east Russian land, India and a few others. They might be allies at the moment, but history is full of examples of dictatorship alliances eating each other later on.

Interesting stuff. Worrying too obviously…

Is Xi going to throw his hat into the “Man of Destiny” ring? Or is he happy to mainly just intimidate and frighten people? That’s probably the question here.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Interesting stuff. Worrying too obviously…

Is Xi going to throw his hat into the “Man of Destiny” ring? Or is he happy to mainly just intimidate and frighten people? That’s probably the question here.

Xi, and others, must be thinking its either invade Taiwan now or not bother for the forseable future. Too many distractions in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East) means the West risks not being in a position to get involved in another area of conflict. We need to get ourselves back onto a cold war footing where we have bigger armies etc.

 

[Cowley]

Xi, and others, must be thinking its either invade Taiwan now or not bother for the forseable future. Too many distractions in the world (Ukraine and the Middle East) means the West risks not being in a position to get involved in another area of conflict. We need to get ourselves back onto a cold war footing where we have bigger armies etc.

Xi going all in on Taiwan is effectively launching an assault on western values, and I’m just not sure (with the caveats mentioned in my earlier post!) that he’s really up for doing that?
If he does, then the gloves are most definitely off and everything will change…

I personally don’t think that he’s that stupid. I get the feeling that the threat of doing it is more important from the point of view of showing their potential power than actually putting it to the test at the moment.

Obviously I’m hoping that this is the case!

 

[GusB]

Xi going all in on Taiwan is effectively launching an assault on western values, and I’m just not sure (with the caveats mentioned in my earlier post!) that he’s really up for doing that?
If he does, then the gloves are most definitely off and everything will change…

I personally don’t think that he’s that stupid. I get the feeling that the threat of doing it is more important from the point of view of showing their potential power than actually putting it to the test at the moment.

Obviously I’m hoping that this is the case!

Could it be that there's so much else going on in the world that nobody is paying attention to China and Xi simply doesn't like not being the centre of attention?

I don't honestly know what to make of the situation, but I think it'd be a massive mistake if he was to attack Taiwan. For a start, the US would be rather unhappy about it (no prizes for understatement of the year), but I think he underestimates the Taiwanese people. I don't think they're likely to let him march in and walk all over them.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Please no - the last thing we need.

 

[Cowley]

Could it be that there's so much else going on in the world that nobody is paying attention to China and Xi simply doesn't like not being the centre of attention?

I don't honestly know what to make of the situation, but I think it'd be a massive mistake if he was to attack Taiwan. For a start, the US would be rather unhappy about it (no prizes for understatement of the year), but I think he underestimates the Taiwanese people. I don't think they're likely to let him march in and walk all over them.

I’m really worried about making predictions, but (and I’ll say this very quietly), I think I agree.

 

[GusB]

I'm no expert on the situation, but I think that China's biggest fear is its population actually finding out what lengths its government will go to in order to suppress the truth. The "Great Firewall of China" is in place and there isn't really such thing as an "internet", but they can't hold back the tide forever. Hong Kong was handed back in 1997, but there are people who live there who will well remember the events of 1989 (Tianenmen Square) and who will have passed that knowledge on. There are too many people of Chinese origin who live outside China and have free access to "western" information in order to keep a real lid on it.

We should be fighting them at their own game and exploiting the gaps in that wall; secret police are only effective when they can actually keep secrets.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Xi going all in on Taiwan is effectively launching an assault on western values, and I’m just not sure (with the caveats mentioned in my earlier post!) that he’s really up for doing that?
If he does, then the gloves are most definitely off and everything will change…

I personally don’t think that he’s that stupid. I get the feeling that the threat of doing it is more important from the point of view of showing their potential power than actually putting it to the test at the moment.

Obviously I’m hoping that this is the case!

I would agree BUT the snag is Putin got involved in a war on Ukraine which he was led to believe would be a push over.

For Xi it is about the risk of a steady rising in rhetoric which ends up with the Chinese leadership talking themselves into a war. On a practical front Taiwan being an island makes invasion a little harder of course - but then it would be like the whole of Europe's resources (and more) being used to invade Britain.

I don't think China and Russia are the same type of territory grabber but China has been very obviously absorbing its neighbours. Not saying that is anything different to what the West was up to many centuries ago with our empires. Some were better at carrying the locals with us than others were but China might arguable be seen to be playing out the sort of thing we did centuries ago.

I'm no expert on the situation, but I think that China's biggest fear is its population actually finding out what lengths its government will go to in order to suppress the truth. The "Great Firewall of China" is in place and there isn't really such thing as an "internet", but they can't hold back the tide forever. Hong Kong was handed back in 1997, but there are people who live there who will well remember the events of 1989 (Tianenmen Square) and who will have passed that knowledge on. There are too many people of Chinese origin who live outside China and have free access to "western" information in order to keep a real lid on it.

We should be fighting them at their own game and exploiting the gaps in that wall; secret police are only effective when they can actually keep secrets.

I think some of it is we have to recognise who our enemies are and not shy away from responsibility hoping for the best. We have been in a state of ignorance is bliss for decades (since the cold war). I know how difficult it can be communicating with ordinary people in China. Some emails don't work and things like WhatsApp don't either.

I think complacency is the Wests enemy. The US dragging their heels over support for Ukraine speaks volumes. But then it is about time other Western nations pulled their weight. The Baltic states and even Denmark have upped their preparedness.

In the case of both Russia and China we have become far too dependant on them. They are less dependant on us - especially China, Russia is a bit of weakling by comparison.

 

[Belperpete]

What neighbours has China forcibly absorbed in recent times? It took back control of Hong Kong, but that was because we handed it back. Interesting to speculate if we hadn't, if we had say held a referendum there, would the Chinese have used force? But we didn't, so we will never know. They are using force and manoeuvring to increase their hold on disputed territories in the South China sea, where the Chinese can claim that they are defending what is already theirs. Okay, they could say the same about Taiwan, but Taiwan is not an uninhabited Island in the middle of nowhere.

China always claims that it is a peaceful nation. A forcible takeover of Taiwan would badly dent that claim. Personally, I don't see them doing so, unless Taiwan pushes them too far. Which the Taiwanese are generally very careful not to do.

Each act that Taiwan makes to demonstrate its independence is met by a drum beat from China to remind them and the world that China thinks differently. The latest military exercises are another such response.

The big difference between the Russian situation and China is that Russia needs Ukraine under its control. Its resources were strategically important to supplying Eastern Russia, which stretches a long, long way from Western Russia. It was prepared to tolerate an independent Ukraine provided that independence was purely nominal, and there was a Russian puppet or at worst ineffectual president in charge. Once Zelensky was elected and that independence became real, Putin had to do something about it. On the other hand, while China would like to have Taiwan under its control, it doesn't need it, it doesn't have the same strategic importance as Ukraine has to Russia.

 

[najaB]

Is Xi going to throw his hat into the “Man of Destiny” ring? Or is he happy to mainly just intimidate and frighten people? That’s probably the question here.

In a war between the China and the West (primarily the USA) nobody wins. I suspect it will be bluster for a while and then quiet down.

 

[Fermiboson]

What neighbours has China forcibly absorbed in recent times? It took back control of Hong Kong, but that was because we handed it back. Interesting to speculate if we hadn't, if we had say held a referendum there, would the Chinese have used force?

Yes. The first thing China did upon joining the UN was to remove HK from the list of colonies in order to remove HK’s right to a referendum. Every single Chinese move during the SBJD negotiations involved preventing any sort of direct democracy in HK, and they more or less forced out the 1995 directly elected LegCo at gunpoint - metaphorical or literal is a matter of opinion.

A 1982 poll conducted by Ming Pao indicated that of ~1000 HKers surveyed, the following result was obtained:
95% considered the colonial arrangement to be acceptable;
64% considered it acceptable for China to gain sovereignity but for the UK to continue administering;
42% considered it acceptable for HK to form an SAR (i.e. current arrangement)
37% considered independence acceptable;
26% considered it acceptable for full reunion with China.

They are using force and manoeuvring to increase their hold on disputed territories in the South China sea, where the Chinese can claim that they are defending what is already theirs. Okay, they could say the same about Taiwan, but Taiwan is not an uninhabited Island in the middle of nowhere.

Except it isn’t; the nine-dash line has about as much historical basis as a Chinese claim on the Japanese home islands (and this is more or less openly admitted, given the maps they show on state TV). In the end, virtually any East Asian country can be justified as “historically in the Chinese sphere of influence” - and for Korea and Vietnam this is probably more true than it is for Taiwan.

Each act that Taiwan makes to demonstrate its independence is met by a drum beat from China to remind them and the world that China thinks differently. The latest military exercises are another such response.

This is correct.

The big difference between the Russian situation and China is that Russia needs Ukraine under its control. Its resources were strategically important to supplying Eastern Russia, which stretches a long, long way from Western Russia. It was prepared to tolerate an independent Ukraine provided that independence was purely nominal, and there was a Russian puppet or at worst ineffectual president in charge. Once Zelensky was elected and that independence became real, Putin had to do something about it. On the other hand, while China would like to have Taiwan under its control, it doesn't need it, it doesn't have the same strategic importance as Ukraine has to Russia.

No, Russia doesn’t need Ukraine to survive; and Ukraine gained a true degree of independence in 2014 (which is also when Russia invaded), not 2019. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about imperialistic ambitions and obtaining great power status; in other words, exactly the same as Chinese motivations.

In a war between the China and the West (primarily the USA) nobody wins. I suspect it will be bluster for a while and then quiet down.

There are many levels of conflict that one can engage in before all out nuclear war. Russia and the West, for example, are currently engaged in one of these states of hybrid warfare.

I think some of it is we have to recognise who our enemies are and not shy away from responsibility hoping for the best. We have been in a state of ignorance is bliss for decades (since the cold war). I know how difficult it can be communicating with ordinary people in China. Some emails don't work and things like WhatsApp don't either.

I think complacency is the Wests enemy. The US dragging their heels over support for Ukraine speaks volumes. But then it is about time other Western nations pulled their weight. The Baltic states and even Denmark have upped their preparedness.

In the case of both Russia and China we have become far too dependant on them. They are less dependant on us - especially China, Russia is a bit of weakling by comparison.

This. The west has forgotten that the things it takes for granted needs defending.

Interesting stuff. Worrying too obviously…

Is Xi going to throw his hat into the “Man of Destiny” ring? Or is he happy to mainly just intimidate and frighten people? That’s probably the question here.

On the other hand, they will not invade Taiwan with two weeks’ notice. We’ll have months of photographs, rumours, and DoD announcements. The amount of material required for a successful amphibious invasion is simply far too large to assemble stealthily; in fact it is a matter of debate whether China even has the capacity as a whole.

When that happens, the west’s collective response will be the deciding factor. Unfortunately, I have zero confidence that the west will not simply react with cowardice and a complete lack of strategic ambiguity as they did with Ukraine.

 

[nw1]

I'd have expected China to be more pragmatic in the sense that they get a lot of their money through selling things to the West. Try something like that on and all that trade with the West will start to dry up as the West seek other places to source their goods - perhaps even here at home, in the actual West.

 

[Gostav]

I'd have expected China to be more pragmatic in the sense that they get a lot of their money through selling things to the West. Try something like that on and all that trade with the West will start to dry up as the West seek other places to source their goods - perhaps even here at home, in the actual West.

At present, China's export economy is stagnant, and the benefits to the domestic economy are becoming increasingly limited. The depressed environment also gave birth to a large number of nationalists.

There are too many people of Chinese origin who live outside China and have free access to "western" information in order to keep a real lid on it.

This is a small proportion compared to the huge population that has never experienced any international travel in China.

Unfortunately, I have zero confidence that the west will not simply react with cowardice and a complete lack of strategic ambiguity as they did with Ukraine.

This is a serious problem, since the Cold War, the Western world has given up too much industry, especially heavy industry, which is necessary to produce weapons. This is why we see Western aid to Ukraine weapons and ammunition are always in shortage. The Chinese government knows very well that in Europe, many industries for weapons cannot be established in the short term which means that even if Europe can prepare, it will not be able to provide more assistance to the Taiwan than it provides to Ukraine.

 

[Peter Sarf]

At present, China's export economy is stagnant, and the benefits to the domestic economy are becoming increasingly limited. The depressed environment also gave birth to a large number of nationalists, and there were some deeper differences between the South and the North as well as conspiracy theories.

And, history tells us, an economic slide is one way of getting to a war.