China vs Taiwan and other potential invasions/conflicts of concern (previously included Russia & Ukraine)

[squizzler]

George Monbiot recently talked about how the Cold War was based on two extreme ideologies that are/were both doomed to fail: extreme individualism (US and allies) and extreme collectivism (USSR).

Maybe in the Reagan and Thatcher era, but up till the 1980s we were the free world with good standard of life, redistributive economic policies and so forth. No reason why we can't go back to redistributing wealth, give everyone a good standard of living, add environmental justice, except for the pernicious belief it cannot be done, or is in some way taboo.

 

[GS250]

Maybe in the Reagan and Thatcher era, but up till the 1980s we were the free world with good standard of life, redistributive economic policies and so forth. No reason why we can't go back to redistributing wealth, give everyone a good standard of living, add environmental justice, except for the pernicious belief it cannot be done, or is in some way taboo.

This is getting into some very deep territory to say the least! However I tend to agree that absolutely rampant and self centred individualism are now slowly but surely being questioned. And the key word is 'individualism'. This doesn't necessarily equate to capitalism in my opinion. Some of the most selfish and 'individualistic' people I know claim to be left wing but advocate socialist methodologies to purely make their own life better.

The West is without doubt slowly but surely fracturing itself. The question is though...who is actually pushing some of these divisive agendas? Is it the Western leadership? Is it the banks? Is it Russia or China? Is it those who lurk in the shadows? Quite possibly they are aware of what an overly individualistic society can do in the long term and maybe prefer this method of conquering as opposed to conventional methods?

We can speculate as to what's going on in Ukraine at present. I see the Russians are performing a perfectly routine nuclear drill. Naturally some elements of social media have taken this as the precursor to WW3. Exactly the same as what they do whenever a Typhoon intercepts a Bear over the North Sea. Either way, I'm not sure who I distrust the most out of the two superpowers. The macho, swashbuckling Putin. Or the alleged 'good guy' Biden.

 

[squizzler]

Either way, I'm not sure who I distrust the most out of the two superpowers. The macho, swashbuckling Putin. Or the alleged 'good guy' Biden.

The rest of us are. Otherwise a good post.

 

[Gostav]

THat's my chief fear. The authoritarian countries cannot win, because its leaders are only interested in themselves and hearing what they want to hear, but the "West" is perfectly capable of destroying itself. It seems that the Free World is increasingly not what the press term the "West" but countries in the far east such as South Korea, China (albeit only the Taiwanese republic thereof) and so forth. Sad to say but English speaking world seems to have run its course, but out of the traditional "Western counties" it seems to me the EU - that Britain separated from by choice - seems to be flourishing.

If your memory is good enough, you will see that government really started to increased control of the news and internet is after the rise of ISIS. Prior to this, Westerners generally established an assumption: Westerners' "enemies" do not understand propaganda machines, and anti-Western regimes do not understand how to use the Internet. In this hypothetical situation, "freedom of the press" and "freedom of information" can be realized.
But the reality is: extremists know how to use the Internet, they use the Internet to recruit Westerners, and they use Western media and social platforms - Twitter, Facebook, YouTube to spread extremism. At this time, governments of various countries suddenly no longer advertise "Internet freedom" and "Internet is without borders". With that comes more regulation in the name of anti-terrorism and "child protection"

 

[GWRtom]

The "Donetsk People's Republic" puppet government have just announced that they plan to evacuate civillians to Russia, claiming that the Ukrainian army is preparing an offensive to retake the territory.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022...region-to-evacuate-civilians-to-russia-a76452

They are also claiming that they stopped a group of POLISH speaking Ukrainian army personal after a firefight from blowing up Chorline gas storage cylinders near the town of Horlivka, they've released supposed helmet cam footage of this incident.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494648104850755594?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1494648104850755594|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FLiveuamap2Fstatus2F1494648104850755594widget=Tweet

^ This is pretty much what Blinken warned about yesterday, when it comes to building a pretext...

 

[nanstallon]

Apart from the fact that Ukraine is perfectly entitled to take action to regain control of its own country, this looks like the false flag that will give Putin the excuse to move into Ukraine.

 

[GWRtom]

And now the head of the "Luhansk People's republic" is also calling for evacuation of the civillian population to Russia.

 

[oldman]

Fascism is the name for a type of politics, a type Putin doesn't follow. Being nationalistic can be done by those on any side of the political spectrum; see the SNP. Would you call them far right? So to answer the question, it's their respective politics.

The SNP are nationalists but Putin is an authoritarian dictatorial nationalist, as was Mussolini. That is the difference. You may have your own particular definition of fascism (there are a lot around) but mine is simple - authoritarian nationalist.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The SNP are nationalists but Putin is an authoritarian dictatorial nationalist, as was Mussolini. That is the difference. You may have your own particular definition of fascism (there are a lot around) but mine is simple - authoritarian nationalist.

Without wanting to go too much off-topic, that seems to me such a wide definition of fascism as to completely devalue the word. 'Authoritarian nationalist' would to a good approximation cover just about every non-democratic Government that's ever existed! I appreciate there's no single agreed definition, but I'd expect that, before labelling a regime as 'fascist', that regime would need to have a fair bit more in common with the typical characteristics of fascism. That would probably mean things like, overt militarism, a belief in the natural order of things being for that group to rule - to the point where even faked elections are not considered necessary, a publicly expressed admiration for regimes like those of Mussolini or Franco - none of which seem to be characteristics of the Putin regime. Personally, I would consider Putin to be a corrupt and nationalistic autocrat, but I don't think I'd describe him as a fascist.

 

[AlterEgo]

George Monbiot recently talked about how the Cold War was based on two extreme ideologies that are/were both doomed to fail: extreme individualism (US and allies) and extreme collectivism (USSR). The former ideology was not actually vindicated by the collapse of the latter, all that happened was the latter collapsed first. Now arguably we're seeing the extreme individualism ideology starting to fail, not least because there are not enough resources to satisfy everyone having whatever they want and disregarding others. The collapse could see any combination of fascism, civil war and/or general chaos, with a peaceful transition hard to see.

You think extreme individualism is starting to fail? It’s never been more popular in the west.

The SNP are nationalists but Putin is an authoritarian dictatorial nationalist, as was Mussolini. That is the difference. You may have your own particular definition of fascism (there are a lot around) but mine is simple - authoritarian nationalist.

Well that’s not what a fascist is, that’s like claiming an apple is an orange because you personally deem it so.

Putin is bad - as bad as a fascist, but not actually a fascist in any meaningful way.

 

[GWRtom]

A car bomb has just gone off in Donetsk, in the car park of the main "government" building.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1494707113616150541

Edit:
Reportedly the car belonged to the DPR's "Chief of the people's militia directorate" (Military head), Denis Sinenkov. Not Good.

 

[ainsworth74]

Yeah it's not massively encouraging that there's an increasing drip drip of "provocations" which is basically exactly what you'd expect before an attack.

 

[DarloRich]

Yeah it's not massively encouraging that there's an increasing drip drip of "provocations" which is basically exactly what you'd expect before an attack.

all part of the game plan.

 

[brad465]

You think extreme individualism is starting to fail? It’s never been more popular in the west.

If something cannot physically be sustained, then it will fail, regardless of how popular it is.

 

[yorksrob]

THat's my chief fear. The authoritarian countries cannot win, because its leaders are only interested in themselves and hearing what they want to hear, but the "West" is perfectly capable of destroying itself. It seems that the Free World is increasingly not what the press term the "West" but countries in the far east such as South Korea, China (albeit only the Taiwanese republic thereof) and so forth. Sad to say but English speaking world seems to have run its course, but out of the traditional "Western counties" it seems to me the EU - that Britain separated from by choice - seems to be flourishing.

The key to maintaining freedom is in not succumbing to unfettered market ideology. As I said about the proposed TTIP, how the economy functions is the primary part of how a society operates. You can't have a democracy by enshrining all economic decisions in an unchangeable international treaty for ever more and just leaving people with the choice of what day the bins are taken out. Once the West grasps this it will be fine.

 

[kristiang85]

A car bomb has just gone off in Donetsk, in the car park of the main "government" building.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1494707113616150541

Edit:
Reportedly the car belonged to the DPR's "Chief of the people's militia directorate" (Military head), Denis Sinenkov. Not Good.

Another false flag.

Evaculations are underway for the Russians living there - it feels like something is going to happen very soon.

 

[GWRtom]

Another false flag.

Evaculations are underway for the Russians living there - it feels like something is going to happen very soon.

Russia is conducting their annual nuclear readiness drills tomorrow which were supposed to take place in several months time, and were moved presumably to keep NATO occupied while Zelensky as things stand will be away in Munich.

Looks like Russia could make their move within the next 48hrs.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I know the drills are annual and pre-planned, but I can’t help but be worried that the Russian forces may ‘accidentally’ fire a weapon towards Ukraine in the process.

 

[GS250]

I know the drills are annual and pre-planned, but I can’t help but be worried that the Russian forces may ‘accidentally’ fire a weapon towards Ukraine in the process.

They've got a history of firing missiles towards 'accidental' targets!

 

[kylemore]

It does appear the Ukrainians are escalating the situation with a series of provocations against the Donbass Republics. If the escalation continues I would expect Russia to go to the UN Security Council in the first instance to propose a de-escalation and return to the ceasefire lines.

However I would also expect the US and their lickspittle sidekicks, the UK, to stymie any attempt to calm the situation and indeed would probably egg on their Ukrainian pawns.

The result may well be a justifiable intervention by Russia and recognition of the Donbass republics by Russia. Of course this would be portrayed as a pre-planned Russian aggression and the famous "sanctions" would follow.

We now get to the nub of the matter - Nordstream2. That will be the first "sanction" - to stop it before it starts operating, that in reality is what this "Crisis" is all about. This sanction will cause much more harm to Germany than Russia and it will be interesting to see how the Germans react. There is every indication that both the Germans and the French have seen through the US position - the question is will they stand up for themselves?

 

[Scotrail314209]

It does appear the Ukrainians are escalating the situation with a series of provocations against the Donbass Republics. If the escalation continues I would expect Russia to go to the UN Security Council in the first instance to propose a de-escalation and return to the ceasefire lines.

I don't think we can call who's at fault for the explosions in Donbas, it could be Russia or it could be Ukraine. But we know the west will pin it as a false-flag carried out by Russia.

Whoevers fault it is, it's quite a serious escalation and I hope diplomacy can be found.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It does appear the Ukrainians are escalating the situation with a series of provocations against the Donbass Republics. If the escalation continues I would expect Russia to go to the UN Security Council in the first instance to propose a de-escalation and return to the ceasefire lines.

Yeah.... right.... So Russia has something like 190K troops positioned around Ukraine's borders sited where they it appears they can easily invade if Russia so chooses, but it's Ukraine that's escalating the situation?

Now pull the other one....

I don't think we can call who's at fault for the explosions in Donbas, it could be Russia or it could be Ukraine. But we know the west will pin it as a false-flag carried out by Russia.

Whoevers fault it is, it's quite a serious escalation and I hope diplomacy can be found.

Realistically, you have to look at who's interest it would be to escalate. Given the vast numbers of Russian forces around Ukraine's borders, it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to escalate - all they'd be doing is inviting an invasion by a country that's far bigger and more powerful than they are. Russia on the other hand has a very strong vested interest in having something happening that could give a pretext for military action. And they also have a long history of underhand tactics in that region. So while I agree that we can't definitely call it based on the information that's publicly available so far, it seems pretty implausible that Ukraine is responsible.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Yeah.... right.... So Russia has something like 190K troops positioned around Ukraine's borders sited where they it appears they can easily invade if Russia so chooses, but it's Ukraine that's escalating the situation?

Now pull the other one....



Realistically, you have to look at who's interest it would be to escalate. Given the vast numbers of Russian forces around Ukraine's borders, it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to escalate - all they'd be doing is inviting an invasion by a country that's far bigger and more powerful than they are. Russia on the other hand has a very strong vested interest in having something happening that could give a pretext for military action. And they also have a long history of underhand tactics in that region. So while I agree that we can't definitely call it based on the information that's publicly available so far, it seems pretty implausible that Ukraine is responsible.

I absolutely agree. I think there needs to be more information that comes out which isn't the US and NATO screaming that it's a false flag before anyone can make a reasonable call on who is responsible.

It seems highly likely it's Russia, but anything is possible no matter how unlikely.

I am definitely suspicious of tomorrow's tests, and I would count on the West keeping an extremely close eye on it for any signs of malicious intent.

 

[DarloRich]

It does appear the Ukrainians are escalating the situation with a series of provocations against the Donbass Republics. If the escalation continues I would expect Russia to go to the UN Security Council in the first instance to propose a de-escalation and return to the ceasefire lines.

However I would also expect the US and their lickspittle sidekicks, the UK, to stymie any attempt to calm the situation and indeed would probably egg on their Ukrainian pawns.

The result may well be a justifiable intervention by Russia and recognition of the Donbass republics by Russia. Of course this would be portrayed as a pre-planned Russian aggression and the famous "sanctions" would follow.

We now get to the nub of the matter - Nordstream2. That will be the first "sanction" - to stop it before it starts operating, that in reality is what this "Crisis" is all about. This sanction will cause much more harm to Germany than Russia and it will be interesting to see how the Germans react. There is every indication that both the Germans and the French have seen through the US position - the question is will they stand up for themselves?

this is an "interesting" take. I would hate to see what Russian escalation looks like!

EDIT - not everything is a CIA conspiracy to take over the world.

 

[nanstallon]

It does appear the Ukrainians are escalating the situation with a series of provocations against the Donbass Republics. If the escalation continues I would expect Russia to go to the UN Security Council in the first instance to propose a de-escalation and return to the ceasefire lines.

However I would also expect the US and their lickspittle sidekicks, the UK, to stymie any attempt to calm the situation and indeed would probably egg on their Ukrainian pawns.

The result may well be a justifiable intervention by Russia and recognition of the Donbass republics by Russia. Of course this would be portrayed as a pre-planned Russian aggression and the famous "sanctions" would follow.

We now get to the nub of the matter - Nordstream2. That will be the first "sanction" - to stop it before it starts operating, that in reality is what this "Crisis" is all about. This sanction will cause much more harm to Germany than Russia and it will be interesting to see how the Germans react. There is every indication that both the Germans and the French have seen through the US position - the question is will they stand up for themselves?

Why on earth would Ukraine want to escalate the situation?

 

[Strathclyder]

It does appear the Ukrainians are escalating the situation with a series of provocations against the Donbass Republics. If the escalation continues I would expect Russia to go to the UN Security Council in the first instance to propose a de-escalation and return to the ceasefire lines.

Pull the other one. Why on earth would Ukraine seek to escalate a crisis in which they'd be the ones who'd draw the shortest straw in virtually every possible outcome? And as for Russia going to the UNSC to propose a de-escalation of any kind here, it's just as well I wasn't drinking anything when I read that.

If they really, really, really wanted to - they obviously don't, otherwise they wouldn't have sparked this crisis in the first place - they can easily and significantly de-escalate the situation themselves by withdrawing their personnel and hardware from around the border with Ukraine without the recommendation or intervention, god forbid, of anyone else.

I'm gonna wait for more information to come out before pointing any definitive fingers as to who is to blame for the Donbas blasts, but to say Ukraine is responsible is beyond ludicrous given the circumstances they're in. Same goes for trying to pin the blame on Ukraine for this mess in general.

 

[GWRtom]

Massive oil pipeline explosion in Luhansk about 30 minutes ago, the separatists are of course blaming it on Ukrainian saboteurs & RT was reporting on it within minutes.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1494784319084187655

Apparently it's the Druzhba pipeline which supplies oil to most of eastern Europe.
ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline

 

[Scotrail314209]

Massive oil pipeline explosion in Luhansk about 30 minutes ago, the separatists are of course blaming it on Ukrainian saboteurs & RT was reporting on it within minutes.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1494784319084187655

Apparently it's the Druzhba pipeline which supplies oil to most of eastern Europe.
ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline

They really aren’t being subtle with the whole false flag stuff are they. Do they seriously think we’ll believe that Ukraine blew up a gas pipeline?

 

[Cowley]

They really aren’t being subtle with the whole false flag stuff are they. Do they seriously think we’ll believe that Ukraine blew up a gas pipeline?

I think they feel that the west are so uncertain of themselves these days that any amount of misinformation seems to make us hesitant and wrong footed enough to take advantage of.
Plus there’s a direct line straight into our lives via social media these days which is an option that was never available during the Cold War.

 

[Gloster]

They really aren’t being subtle with the whole false flag stuff are they. Do they seriously think we’ll believe that Ukraine blew up a gas pipeline?

They don’t really think that we will believe it or care either. It is all for internal consumption in order to gain the support or, at least, tacit acceptance of the Russian populace. And how are we going to produce rock-solid proof that it is a false flag operation if they hold the territory?