China vs Taiwan and other potential invasions/conflicts of concern (previously included Russia & Ukraine)

[Trackman]

Why on earth would Ukraine want to escalate the situation?

Biden has just said near enough said the same thing about 15 mins ago in a press conference.
It's looking glum for Ukraine, Biden reckons invasion in next 48 hours or a week at a pinch. I think Biden has given up with diplomacy now with the way he was acting in the press conference.

 

[nanstallon]

They don’t really think that we will believe it or care either. It is all for internal consumption in order to gain the support or, at least, tacit acceptance of the Russian populace. And how are we going to produce rock-solid proof that it is a false flag operation if they hold the territory?

Might is right, sadly.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I think world leaders need to be careful what they say to avoid stoking fear in the general populace. Giving up on diplomacy and being convinced that there will be an invasion isn't a good sign.

One thing I do think should happen is that President Zelensky should not travel to Munich for a security conference, but instead remain in Ukraine to oversee his country rather than leave. His country should be the priority.

 

[yorksrob]

Our authoritarian competitors must just look at the West as a swirling whirlpool of discontent and disharmony.

Western societies need to be confident and content within themselves - Americans of America, Britons of Britain, Frenchmen of France etc. A sort of modern, inclusive patriotic Gaullism that keeps capitalism linked to the needs of populations is the only sensible political model to out compete the authoritarians in terms of living standards.

 

[adc82140]

We are in the midst of an information war. RT, Putin's spokesman etc are talking a lot of garbage. Similarly the BBC, Daily Telegraph, Joe Biden etc are also talking a lot of garbage. We really have no idea what's actually going on on the borders of Ukraine. Which is how Putin wants it to be.

 

[oldman]

We really have no idea what's actually going on on the borders of Ukraine.

We know there are massive Russian troop build-ups. We know that Russian media are reporting mysterious explosions on Russian-occupied territory. We know that Russian media are whipping up war fever (Novosti headline : In Donetsk it is thought Ukraine is ready for a military solution of the conflict).

But there are always people who say we can't be sure.

 

[daodao]

We know there are massive Russian troop build-ups. We know that Russian media are reporting mysterious explosions on Russian-occupied territory. We know that Russian media are whipping up war fever (Novosti headline : In Donetsk it is thought Ukraine is ready for a military solution of the conflict).

But there are always people who say we can't be sure.

The Ukraine has failed to adhere to the Minsk2 agreement, whose implementation and acceptance of negotiations even at this late stage could avert the crisis. The Kiev regime could enable extensive autonomy for the 2 Donbass oblasts, and recognise that is should never join NATO. Otherwise, Russia will retain the option to bring it to heel, particularly if it persists with provocations in the Donbass.

As for sanctions, do they ever work? Sanctions against Russia would be difficult to implement effectively and would be the EU cutting off its nose to spite its face. NATO is a paper tiger, which has been discredited following its over-expansion (in terms of membership and area of operation), as exemplified by its recent capitulation to the Taliban.

The geopolitical reality is that the Ukraine is Malaya Rossiya; that is the view of Russian opposition leaders such as Alexander Navalny as well. The puppet comedian Vladimir Zelensky needs to face facts.

 

[Gathursty]

I'd be happy for the East of Ukraine to secede to Russia as long as Putin doesn't seed more Russian people into further west parts of Ukraine for more land grabs. If Putin isn't happy running the world's largest country or having billions of rubles, he could retire and let someone else have a go. He is almost 70 years old, married, has a family and still is unsatisfied. It's tragic.

 

[daodao]

He is almost 70 years old, married, has a family.

He (Putin) was divorced in 2014 and allegedly has had other relationships.

 

[Gathursty]

He (Putin) was divorced in 2014 and allegedly has had other relationships.

He should probably seek happiness in his final years than play with idea of untold misery for hundreds of thousands for the sake of a relatively small portion of land (Eastern Ukraine NOT the whole country)

 

[kylemore]

He should probably seek happiness in his final years than play with idea of untold misery for hundreds of thousands for the sake of a relatively small portion of land (Eastern Ukraine NOT the whole country)

There are probably tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people alive in Syria today, who, if the "West" had had it's way would now be dead if it had not been for the Russian intervention. I bet they're glad Putin didn't retire too soon!

 

[Gathursty]

Putin came to the aid of Assad, not the people of Syria. If you genuinely feel Russia under Putin, where opposition activists and politicians can be arrested for trivial or made up claims, domestic violence taken almost for granted and winning Olympic medals at the cost of teenage girls being psychologically abused/given an array of drugs, is so much better ran than any NATO country, then I've got nothing left to say.

 

[squizzler]

I’m starting to think that it is inevitable that a NATO peacekeeping force will be dispatched to Eastern Ukraine. These mysterious explosions are a public safety nuisance which is intolerable on the doorstep of the EU.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I’m starting to think that it is inevitable that a NATO peacekeeping force will be dispatched to Eastern Ukraine. These mysterious explosions are a public safety nuisance which is intolerable on the doorstep of the EU.

It’s a possibility, but that might cause some divide as nobody has pledged sending troops into Ukraine. Even Biden had said that US service personnel will not go to Ukraine.

 

[yorksrob]

There are probably tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people alive in Syria today, who, if the "West" had had it's way would now be dead if it had not been for the Russian intervention. I bet they're glad Putin didn't retire too soon!

If you recall, the UK parliament took a direct decision not to intervene in the Syrian war, for better or worse.

 

[Gostav]

Putin came to the aid of Assad, not the people of Syria.

Assad or Baghdadi, choose one.

 

[squizzler]

If you recall, the UK parliament took a direct decision not to intervene in the Syrian war, for better or worse.

Definitely a good decision. Ukraine on the other hand has invited the Free World onto its territory.

 

[yorksrob]

Definitely a good decision. Ukraine on the other hand has invited the Free World onto its territory.

Indeed.

 

[adc82140]

It’s a possibility, but that might cause some divide as nobody has pledged sending troops into Ukraine. Even Biden had said that US service personnel will not go to Ukraine.

It's politically not palatable for the US to send troops in. The electorate, fresh from seeing what happened in Afghanistan, will see it as another endless foreign war where countless US soldiers will die for no discernible benefit. Throughout this information war, all the NATO countries have ruled out a shooting war directly with the Russians. Perhaps they should have kept quiet, to keep Putin guessing. "All options are on the table" normally does the trick.

 

[kylemore]

Both sides are reporting very light casualties from the increased shelling which is making some commentators suspect that much of the shelling is deliberately inaccurate and demonstrative in nature - who knows?

It is also interesting that Zelensky has decided to attend the Munich Security Conference against the very strong wishes of the US (indeed their fury) and will reportedly hold discussions with Macron who can be seen perhaps as some kind of honest broker.

It may well be that elements of the Ukrainian leadership see through the US and British warmongers and their attempts to use the Ukrainians as pawns in a bigger game (the cowardly evacuation of the Embassy was a strong hint as to how the US would stand by them), let's hope so.

 

[yorksrob]

Both sides are reporting very light casualties from the increased shelling which is making some commentators suspect that much of the shelling is deliberately inaccurate and demonstrative in nature - who knows?

It is also interesting that Zelensky has decided to attend the Munich Security Conference against the very strong wishes of the US (indeed their fury) and will reportedly hold discussions with Macron who can be seen perhaps as some kind of honest broker.

It may well be that elements of the Ukrainian leadership see through the US and British warmongers and their attempts to use the Ukrainians as pawns in a bigger game (the cowardly evacuation of the Embassy was a strong hint as to how the US would stand by them), let's hope so.

All that has to happen for there not to be a war is for Russia not to invade the Ukraine.

 

[nanstallon]

The Ukraine has failed to adhere to the Minsk2 agreement, whose implementation and acceptance of negotiations even at this late stage could avert the crisis. The Kiev regime could enable extensive autonomy for the 2 Donbass oblasts, and recognise that is should never join NATO. Otherwise, Russia will retain the option to bring it to heel, particularly if it persists with provocations in the Donbass.

As for sanctions, do they ever work? Sanctions against Russia would be difficult to implement effectively and would be the EU cutting off its nose to spite its face. NATO is a paper tiger, which has been discredited following its over-expansion (in terms of membership and area of operation), as exemplified by its recent capitulation to the Taliban.

The geopolitical reality is that the Ukraine is Malaya Rossiya; that is the view of Russian opposition leaders such as Alexander Navalny as well. The puppet comedian Vladimir Zelensky needs to face facts.

Do you work for Putin? Ukraine is a sovereign state, and has every right to apply to join NATO. Russia's behaviour is encouraging such an application; collective security against a bully. To accuse Ukraine of provocations is really turning truth on its head. The facts are that Russia seized Crimea by force, and since 2014 has been encouraging separatists in the Donbass - all this in pique at Ukraine becoming a genuine democracy. Perhaps that is what really worries him. It would be difficult to ask Alexander Navalny for his views; he has been locked up for daring to oppose Putin.

 

[adrock1976]

The Ukraine has failed to adhere to the Minsk2 agreement, whose implementation and acceptance of negotiations even at this late stage could avert the crisis. The Kiev regime could enable extensive autonomy for the 2 Donbass oblasts, and recognise that is should never join NATO. Otherwise, Russia will retain the option to bring it to heel, particularly if it persists with provocations in the Donbass.

As for sanctions, do they ever work? Sanctions against Russia would be difficult to implement effectively and would be the EU cutting off its nose to spite its face. NATO is a paper tiger, which has been discredited following its over-expansion (in terms of membership and area of operation), as exemplified by its recent capitulation to the Taliban.

The geopolitical reality is that the Ukraine is Malaya Rossiya; that is the view of Russian opposition leaders such as Alexander Navalny as well. The puppet comedian Vladimir Zelensky needs to face facts.

Regarding sanctions, it did work for the boycott, divestment, and sanctions against the South African Government during the apartheid era. This included refusing to play against South Africa in various sporting tournaments, musicians/bands refusing to play at Sun City, etc.

Fast forward to the present day, there has been a trade union led Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions against the Israeli Government, due to them constantly flouting international law, such as refusing to withdraw from occupied territory and adhering to the boundaries agreed back in 1967.

 

[Ediswan]

Both sides are reporting very light casualties from the increased shelling which is making some commentators suspect that much of the shelling is deliberately inaccurate and demonstrative in nature - who knows?

Look at the pictures of the kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska that was reportedly hit by a shell. There is a big hole in the wall. Does anybody see any evidence of an explosion ?

 

[brad465]

Johnson now saying Russia is planning the biggest war since 1945:

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson tells BBC that intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion encircling Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Evidence suggests Russia is planning "the biggest war in Europe since 1945", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.
He told the BBC's Sophie Raworth in an interview: "All the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun."
Intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion that will encircle Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Mr Johnson said.
"People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail," he said.
The prime minister was speaking from Munich, where world leaders are meeting for an annual security conference.
The latest estimates by the US government suggests the number of Russian troops now stationed along Ukraine's border, both in Russia and neighbouring Belarus, is between 169,000 and 190,000.

Western officials have warned in recent weeks that Russia could be preparing to invade at any time, but Russia has denied the claims, saying troops are conducting military exercises in the region.
Asked whether a Russian invasion is still thought to be imminent, Mr Johnson said: "I'm afraid that that is what the evidence points to, there's no burnishing it.
"The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun."
Mr Johnson was speaking after meeting with Western leaders and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The full interview will be broadcast on BBC One's Sunday Morning programme at 09:00 GMT.

Thinking about applying sanctions on Russia, if the main sanction was to target gas supplies, Russia has maybe left the invasion concept a bit too late, as we're almost out of winter and demand for gas across Europe will start to decline soon through to the autumn. Had they started in November, sanctions would have been much harder to agree on and/or more damaging to Europe as a whole.

Of course in the UK we need to literally be screaming at the Government to get rid of all Russian money in the City of London and Tory party immediately, and keep exposing them for as long as they don't seize it.

 

[Gloster]

Johnson now saying Russia is planning the biggest war since 1945:

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson tells BBC that intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion encircling Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Which may or may not be true. However, what Johnson says is largely influenced by what it will do for his public image. Either he is the Great Diplomat who prevented a massive war, or he is Winstoris Churchillson, the Great War Leader. Just start worrying if he takes to smoking cigars.

 

[nanstallon]

Johnson now saying Russia is planning the biggest war since 1945:

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson tells BBC that intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion encircling Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Thinking about applying sanctions on Russia, if the main sanction was to target gas supplies, Russia has maybe left the invasion concept a bit too late, as we're almost out of winter and demand for gas across Europe will start to decline soon through to the autumn. Had they started in November, sanctions would have been much harder to agree on and/or more damaging to Europe as a whole.

Of course in the UK we need to literally be screaming at the Government to get rid of all Russian money in the City of London and Tory party immediately, and keep exposing them for as long as they don't seize it.

Yes, for too long Britain has been happy to take in dirty money. Time to regain some self respect.

 

[Meerkat]

Yes, for too long Britain has been happy to take in dirty money. Time to regain some self respect.

Seizing all the dirty money would be quite handy for the budget at the moment!

 

[GWRtom]

Some developments tonight,

The Russians seem to have started applying IFF (Identify Friend or Foe) markings to their vehicles deployed along the border within the last 24-48 hours, used to prevent friendly fire & identify different task forces within an operation.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495144942410285065

A column of 200+ (Number claimed by person who filmed the video) Russian army vehicles was seen passing through a town approx. 10km from the Ukrainian border, in close proximity to Kharkiv.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1495170070565339143

 

[Scotrail314209]

Since the Olympics end tomorrow, I wonder if we'll see an invasion on Monday? Wasn't it widely speculated that Russia would invade after the Olympics?