dk1
Veteran Member
Oil price heading towards $100/barrel this morning.
Absolute minimum. It should be backed with military action. Putin's position is weak and he knows it. This attempted invasion represents, to put it lightly, an overplaying of his hand that will rapidly crumble in the face of any resistance.Things are looking pretty bleak. If Western leaders really want to stop Putin's salami slicing of Ukraine they need to stop giving him opportunities to show off his large table and do the following:
- close the convenient loopholes that let Russian oligarchs use the London property market to launder their dirty money, and reform Party funding so Russian billionaires can't influence Tory (or Labour) policy through political donations.
- cancel Nord Stream 2. Germany and other European countries need to reduce their reliance on Russian gas.
- make clear to Putin that if there is a conflict in Ukraine, he will personally be charged with war crimes and an international arrest warrant will be served.
Do you want WW3? Putin's move in the Donbass is cautious and carefully done; it merely regularises the existing arrangements. The West can't do anything practical about it that isn't going to backfire. Putin is extremely wily, and is no bumbling idiot like the comedian acting as the Ukrainian president or for the matter Bojo (although the latter has guile).I hope that the Ukrainians use utmost force to resist any incursions into its territories.
Absolute minimum. It should be backed with military action. Putin's position is weak and he knows it. This attempted invasion represents, to put it lightly, an overplaying of his hand that will rapidly crumble in the face of any resistance.
Many consider his recent speech exhibited mental health issues, and is in a bubble that even his closest staff are unwilling to pop.
Appeasement. Very clearly, Putin has no respect for international law, and has shown himself to be a bully.Is this realistic? Putin has merely made a cautious move that regularises the de facto situation in the 2 Donbass oblasts and may help to stabilise it.
As for your suggestions:
For the Ukraine to survive as an integral whole, it needs to recognise the geo-political reality and accept "Finlandisation", regional autonomy and language duality for its inhabitants. The Ukraine:
- The Deripaska affair illustrates the degree of links between the 2 main UK political parties and Russian "dirty" money. There is also so much other "dirty" money swilling around London, that attempts to clamp down on it will affect many powerful, wealthy and influential individuals who would put up great resistance to any such action by Westminster.
- Reducing use of Russian gas by European countries (including the UK) would be cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. With energy prices already increasing at an astronomic rate, this would be economic suicide.
- A war crime? Pull the other one. I doubt that the world-wide international community would endorse an international arrest warrant.
The current situation is a disaster, resulting from the overthrow by a Western-backed neo-fascist putsch in February 2014, of the democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovich (born in the Donetsk Oblast), who had an understanding of the need for the Ukraine to work with its more powerful neighbour.
- is currently literally led by a puppet comedian, whose strings seem to stretch to Brussels and Washington.
- has little historical legitimacy and no tradition of genuine statehood; it was only created post WW1 and its boundaries have fluctuated since then. It is merely a part of Russia that since the dissolution of the original Russian state (Kievan Rus) has been at least partly under different rulers and has slightly different traditions to the rest of Russia, e.g. in terms of language variation and religion, more so the further west one goes.
- would become a threat to Russia if it joined NATO, which since the end of the Cold War has taken a distinct aggressive and expansionist stance and meddled in areas outside its remit.
Do you want WW3? Putin's move in the Donbass is cautious and carefully done; it merely regularises the existing arrangements. The West can't do anything practical about it that isn't going to backfire. Putin is extremely wily, and is no bumbling idiot like the comedian acting as the Ukrainian president or for the matter Bojo (although the latter has guile).
Nobody wants war, ironically I doubt Putin does either but you either fight now or you watch as he pushes and pushes for more territory.
Quite. War with Russia is looking inevitable. Better to grasp the nettle and do it now whilst Putin is in power - and clearly losing his grip on reality and whose decisions are likely to be a liability to his own side - rather than risk somebody more competent taking over who wants to continue in the same vein.Appeasement. Very clearly, Putin has no respect for international law, and has shown himself to be a bully.
Things are looking pretty bleak. If Western leaders really want to stop Putin's salami slicing of Ukraine they need to stop giving him opportunities to show off his large table and do the following:
- close the convenient loopholes that let Russian oligarchs use the London property market to launder their dirty money, and reform Party funding so Russian billionaires can't influence Tory (or Labour) policy through political donations.
Boris will no doubt talk about this, while he has to, but will be hoping people soon forget as the narrative moves on so it can get forgotten and no action is taken at all.
We rely on that money, and many politicians (including Labour ones) have received money and quite possibly other benefits, some of which may be used to blackmail them and prevent them taking firm action. Think of how that money has helped property developers and loads of other people, and all of this is one of the reasons we had Brexit - so as to stop the pesky EU making it harder for us to be the money laundering capital of Europe (perhaps even the world).
Agreed, but there is no harm in cleaning up our act.Yet despite that money and the allegations of influence, the UK appears to be, of all the countries in Western Europe, the one that has over the last month most forcefully opposed Russian actions and defended Ukraine, as well as supplying Ukraine with logistical support and defensive weaponry. I don't doubt that we do need to do more to ensure Russians connected to Putin's regime can't use UK institutions to make a profit, but on first sight, it certainly doesn't look like that money/donations has significantly influenced our policy towards Ukraine.
I agree up to a point - I think we need to see exactly what sanctions are imposed, on whom and for how long. It is easy to talk the talk. it is less easy to walk the walk when you are neck deep ( both economically & politically) in dodgy Russian money!I don't doubt that we do need to do more to ensure Russians connected to Putin's regime can't use UK institutions to make a profit, but on first sight, it certainly doesn't look like that money/donations has significantly influenced our policy towards Ukraine.
My guess it that he just wants to stir things up a bit. I'm not surprised if Putin actually sees Ukraine a threat, because Ukraine has shown that it is possible for a former Soviet country to get rid of corrupt leaders. I'm sure he doesn't want ordinary russians to see that and get any ideas.Is it really within Russia’s interests to take the whole of Ukraine, or will Putin settle for the separatist states?
The certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline cannot go ahead given Russia's latest actions, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says.
The pipeline between Russia and Germany was completed last September but is not yet operating.
BBC:
Boris Johnson has announced sanctions against five Russian banks: Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank.
The Prime Minister has also sanctioned three "high net worth" individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg,
"Any assets they hold in the UK will be frozen, the individuals concerned will be banned from travelling here and we will prohibit all UK individuals and entities from having any dealings with them," Johnson said
A consequence being the earth getting 1000x hotter than it is via very big explosions.I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.
Not only that, without naming names, some were clearly not at ease with Britain returning to a full sovereign status. So I'm not sure what the fascination with Ukraine is.
I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.
Not only that, without naming names, some were clearly not at ease with Britain returning to a full sovereign status. So I'm not sure what the fascination with Ukraine is.
A consequence being the earth getting 1000x hotter than it is via very big explosions.
So walking the walk consists of sanctioning 5 banks and 3 rich blokes who are mates of Putin. That must be terrifying for him. Bound to call it all off now.
I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.
That seems very disappointingly mild. Putin is basically going to laugh at that.
I dunno I think the US managed to be even more laughable last night when Biden signed an executive order that prohibits new investment, trade and financing by US persons to the separatist regions. The total of that must easily amount to two or three whole dollars!Johnson does stress this is the start of sanctions being imposed but it is a laughable start!
At least Germany have now picked their low hanging fruit.
Watched some live cameras in Donetsk and Luhansk. Everybody is going about their business with no sign of preparation or anything coming. Only difference is that the streets are slightly quieter and some businesses are closed.
I think both responses are what's known in the diplomatic trade as "weak as pi$$". Putin must be laughing his little kremlin off. What's is the next stage of our response? A strongly worded letter? Withdrawal of invites to tennis parties? ffs.I dunno I think the US managed to be even more laughable last night when Biden signed an executive order that prohibits new investment, trade and financing by US persons to the separatist regions. The total of that must easily amount to two or three whole dollars!
Ukrainians protested in front of the Russian Embassy in Kyiv after Moscow recognized the independence of separatists in the east.
Russia on Tuesday said it would soon evacuate its diplomatic staff from Ukraine to "protect their lives," after lawmakers allowed President Vladimir Putin to use force abroad.
"To protect the lives and safety [of diplomats], the Russian leadership decided to evacuate the personnel of Russian foreign missions in Ukraine, which will be implemented in the near future," Moscow's foreign ministry said in a statement.
The ministry said that its diplomats have received threats and that its embassy and consulate has been under "repeated attacks."
"Ukraine has plunged deeper into chaos," the statement said.