China vs Taiwan and other potential invasions/conflicts of concern (previously included Russia & Ukraine)

[dk1]

Oil price heading towards $100/barrel this morning.

 

[squizzler]

I hope that the Ukrainians use utmost force to resist any incursions into its territories.

Things are looking pretty bleak. If Western leaders really want to stop Putin's salami slicing of Ukraine they need to stop giving him opportunities to show off his large table and do the following:

- close the convenient loopholes that let Russian oligarchs use the London property market to launder their dirty money, and reform Party funding so Russian billionaires can't influence Tory (or Labour) policy through political donations.

- cancel Nord Stream 2. Germany and other European countries need to reduce their reliance on Russian gas.

- make clear to Putin that if there is a conflict in Ukraine, he will personally be charged with war crimes and an international arrest warrant will be served.

Absolute minimum. It should be backed with military action. Putin's position is weak and he knows it. This attempted invasion represents, to put it lightly, an overplaying of his hand that will rapidly crumble in the face of any resistance.

Many consider his recent speech exhibited mental health issues, and is in a bubble that even his closest staff are unwilling to pop.

 

[daodao]

I hope that the Ukrainians use utmost force to resist any incursions into its territories.

Absolute minimum. It should be backed with military action. Putin's position is weak and he knows it. This attempted invasion represents, to put it lightly, an overplaying of his hand that will rapidly crumble in the face of any resistance.

Many consider his recent speech exhibited mental health issues, and is in a bubble that even his closest staff are unwilling to pop.

Do you want WW3? Putin's move in the Donbass is cautious and carefully done; it merely regularises the existing arrangements. The West can't do anything practical about it that isn't going to backfire. Putin is extremely wily, and is no bumbling idiot like the comedian acting as the Ukrainian president or for the matter Bojo (although the latter has guile).

 

[Monty]

There will be no Findlandisation of Ukraine, only annexation. Putin literally said last night it 'isn't a real country' and he saw no reason why it and places like the Baltic states should have its independence.

People need to come to terms that we have been engaged with a Proxy war with the Russians for the best part of 20 years and a direct armed conflict between Nato and Russia is a possible prospect.

 

[squizzler]

How can it regularise anything - nobody who matters takes seriously Russia’s claim over that area.

Even Israel with America’s backing never managed to make their occupation of Palestinian territory outside their recognised 1960s borders stick, even decades later.

 

[nanstallon]

Is this realistic? Putin has merely made a cautious move that regularises the de facto situation in the 2 Donbass oblasts and may help to stabilise it.

As for your suggestions:

1. The Deripaska affair illustrates the degree of links between the 2 main UK political parties and Russian "dirty" money. There is also so much other "dirty" money swilling around London, that attempts to clamp down on it will affect many powerful, wealthy and influential individuals who would put up great resistance to any such action by Westminster.
2. Reducing use of Russian gas by European countries (including the UK) would be cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. With energy prices already increasing at an astronomic rate, this would be economic suicide.
3. A war crime? Pull the other one. I doubt that the world-wide international community would endorse an international arrest warrant.

For the Ukraine to survive as an integral whole, it needs to recognise the geo-political reality and accept "Finlandisation", regional autonomy and language duality for its inhabitants. The Ukraine:

• is currently literally led by a puppet comedian, whose strings seem to stretch to Brussels and Washington.
• has little historical legitimacy and no tradition of genuine statehood; it was only created post WW1 and its boundaries have fluctuated since then. It is merely a part of Russia that since the dissolution of the original Russian state (Kievan Rus) has been at least partly under different rulers and has slightly different traditions to the rest of Russia, e.g. in terms of language variation and religion, more so the further west one goes.
• would become a threat to Russia if it joined NATO, which since the end of the Cold War has taken a distinct aggressive and expansionist stance and meddled in areas outside its remit.

The current situation is a disaster, resulting from the overthrow by a Western-backed neo-fascist putsch in February 2014, of the democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovich (born in the Donetsk Oblast), who had an understanding of the need for the Ukraine to work with its more powerful neighbour.

Appeasement. Very clearly, Putin has no respect for international law, and has shown himself to be a bully.

I accept that Russia has legitimate security interests, but so does Ukraine and everybody else. Russia's behaviour in the past, and present, is the reason why her neighbours want to join NATO. Nobody forces any country to join NATO.

There are no saints in this. After the implosion of the USSR, the West had a golden opportunity to treat Russia as a partner for peace, but instead claimed 'victory' in the Cold War. Russia is a proud country and rightly so in spite of a history of bad government; Western hubris is to a large extent responsible for the rise of Putin, just as the humiliation of Germany at Versailles eventually led to the rise of Hitler. And although there was no 'neo-fascist putsch' in Ukraine in 2014, the government in Kyiv has over the years neglected the east of the country - under the Minsk accord Kyiv could have granted some autonomy to the disputed territories. But none of this justifies military action and blatant breaches of international law. Any suggestion that Ukraine started hostilities is a lie, but then we should be used to that from Moscow.

 

[Monty]

Do you want WW3? Putin's move in the Donbass is cautious and carefully done; it merely regularises the existing arrangements. The West can't do anything practical about it that isn't going to backfire. Putin is extremely wily, and is no bumbling idiot like the comedian acting as the Ukrainian president or for the matter Bojo (although the latter has guile).

Nobody wants war, ironically I doubt Putin does either but you either fight now or you watch as he pushes and pushes for more territory. He might call it a bufferzone, but 80 years ago it was called Lebansraum. If we are not prepared to show force with force we may as well pack up now and give Russia whatever it wants.

 

[squizzler]

Nobody wants war, ironically I doubt Putin does either but you either fight now or you watch as he pushes and pushes for more territory.

Appeasement. Very clearly, Putin has no respect for international law, and has shown himself to be a bully.

Quite. War with Russia is looking inevitable. Better to grasp the nettle and do it now whilst Putin is in power - and clearly losing his grip on reality and whose decisions are likely to be a liability to his own side - rather than risk somebody more competent taking over who wants to continue in the same vein.

 

[nanstallon]

This is well worth listening to - it shows how African nations have dealt with the difficulties caused by colonialism, and a maturity that the more powerful countries would do well to follow.

Kenya's envoy to UN cites colonial past as he condemns Russian move into Ukraine – video

Kenya urges diplomacy as Russia sends peacekeeping forces to eastern Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

 

[jon0844]

Things are looking pretty bleak. If Western leaders really want to stop Putin's salami slicing of Ukraine they need to stop giving him opportunities to show off his large table and do the following:

- close the convenient loopholes that let Russian oligarchs use the London property market to launder their dirty money, and reform Party funding so Russian billionaires can't influence Tory (or Labour) policy through political donations.

Boris will no doubt talk about this, while he has to, but will be hoping people soon forget as the narrative moves on so it can get forgotten and no action is taken at all.

We rely on that money, and many politicians (including Labour ones) have received money and quite possibly other benefits, some of which may be used to blackmail them and prevent them taking firm action. Think of how that money has helped property developers and loads of other people, and all of this is one of the reasons we had Brexit - so as to stop the pesky EU making it harder for us to be the money laundering capital of Europe (perhaps even the world).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Boris will no doubt talk about this, while he has to, but will be hoping people soon forget as the narrative moves on so it can get forgotten and no action is taken at all.

We rely on that money, and many politicians (including Labour ones) have received money and quite possibly other benefits, some of which may be used to blackmail them and prevent them taking firm action. Think of how that money has helped property developers and loads of other people, and all of this is one of the reasons we had Brexit - so as to stop the pesky EU making it harder for us to be the money laundering capital of Europe (perhaps even the world).

Yet despite that money and the allegations of influence, the UK appears to be, of all the countries in Western Europe, the one that has over the last month most forcefully opposed Russian actions and defended Ukraine, as well as supplying Ukraine with logistical support and defensive weaponry. I don't doubt that we do need to do more to ensure Russians connected to Putin's regime can't use UK institutions to make a profit, but on first sight, it certainly doesn't look like that money/donations has significantly influenced our policy towards Ukraine.

 

[nanstallon]

Yet despite that money and the allegations of influence, the UK appears to be, of all the countries in Western Europe, the one that has over the last month most forcefully opposed Russian actions and defended Ukraine, as well as supplying Ukraine with logistical support and defensive weaponry. I don't doubt that we do need to do more to ensure Russians connected to Putin's regime can't use UK institutions to make a profit, but on first sight, it certainly doesn't look like that money/donations has significantly influenced our policy towards Ukraine.

Agreed, but there is no harm in cleaning up our act.

 

[DarloRich]

I don't doubt that we do need to do more to ensure Russians connected to Putin's regime can't use UK institutions to make a profit, but on first sight, it certainly doesn't look like that money/donations has significantly influenced our policy towards Ukraine.

I agree up to a point - I think we need to see exactly what sanctions are imposed, on whom and for how long. It is easy to talk the talk. it is less easy to walk the walk when you are neck deep ( both economically & politically) in dodgy Russian money!

 

[JonasB]

Is it really within Russia’s interests to take the whole of Ukraine, or will Putin settle for the separatist states?

My guess it that he just wants to stir things up a bit. I'm not surprised if Putin actually sees Ukraine a threat, because Ukraine has shown that it is possible for a former Soviet country to get rid of corrupt leaders. I'm sure he doesn't want ordinary russians to see that and get any ideas.

If you have 40 minutes left, this is a pretty good summary on recent Ukranian history:

 

[Scotrail314209]

NS2 scrapped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

The certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline cannot go ahead given Russia's latest actions, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says.

The pipeline between Russia and Germany was completed last September but is not yet operating.

 

[DarloRich]

So walking the walk consists of sanctioning 5 banks and 3 rich blokes who are mates of Putin. That must be terrifying for him. Bound to call it all off now.

BBC:
Boris Johnson has announced sanctions against five Russian banks: Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank.

The Prime Minister has also sanctioned three "high net worth" individuals: Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg,

"Any assets they hold in the UK will be frozen, the individuals concerned will be banned from travelling here and we will prohibit all UK individuals and entities from having any dealings with them," Johnson said

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

The London Laundromat seems to be open for business still.

 

[GS250]

I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.

Not only that, without naming names, some were clearly not at ease with Britain returning to a full sovereign status. So I'm not sure what the fascination with Ukraine is.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.

Not only that, without naming names, some were clearly not at ease with Britain returning to a full sovereign status. So I'm not sure what the fascination with Ukraine is.

A consequence being the earth getting 1000x hotter than it is via very big explosions.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.

Not only that, without naming names, some were clearly not at ease with Britain returning to a full sovereign status. So I'm not sure what the fascination with Ukraine is.

Yes, but as others have pointed out, appeasement has a historical habit of ultimately creating the exact same effect.

 

[GS250]

A consequence being the earth getting 1000x hotter than it is via very big explosions.

Hotter....very temporarily. Then a lot cooler and very radioactive for a long time. Not my idea of fun.....

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So walking the walk consists of sanctioning 5 banks and 3 rich blokes who are mates of Putin. That must be terrifying for him. Bound to call it all off now.

That seems very disappointingly mild. Putin is basically going to laugh at that.

I'm utterly aghast at certain social commentators brazenly suggesting the 'West' should be doing more to defend Ukraine's sovereignty. This is a generation that have little idea about the nature of military escalation and the potential consequences for doing so.

For about 45 years after the end of WWII we kept peace in Europe against (mostly) Russia precisely by being prepared to escalate if it proved necessary to avoid being invaded.

Not being willing to risk military escalation has bad consequences too - which we saw play out all too well during the 1930s (albeit there were other factors at work then too).

 

[DarloRich]

That seems very disappointingly mild. Putin is basically going to laugh at that.

Johnson does stress this is the start of sanctions being imposed but it is a laughable start!

 

[ainsworth74]

Johnson does stress this is the start of sanctions being imposed but it is a laughable start!

I dunno I think the US managed to be even more laughable last night when Biden signed an executive order that prohibits new investment, trade and financing by US persons to the separatist regions. The total of that must easily amount to two or three whole dollars!

 

[brad465]

NS2 scrapped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

At least Germany have now picked their low hanging fruit.

The London laundromat is our low hanging fruit, except for Johnson, who paid Russians to dig a hole under the tree so the fruit is harder to reach.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Watched some live cameras in Donetsk and Luhansk. Everybody is going about their business with no sign of preparation or anything coming. Only difference is that the streets are slightly quieter and some businesses are closed.

 

[GS250]

Watched some live cameras in Donetsk and Luhansk. Everybody is going about their business with no sign of preparation or anything coming. Only difference is that the streets are slightly quieter and some businesses are closed.

According to the MSM the scenes there were akin to the film 'Threads'.

 

[brad465]

I think a major reason why we're going slow and soft on Russia is because it isn't "the wrong sort of dictatorship". Were Russia still Communist, or were we talking about Cuba or North Korea, then sanctions would be being issued before most of a population knew the reason for them, and would be as hard hitting as possible.

But Russia, Saudi Arabia, and some other like-minded dictatorships that have very valuable commodities and/or are not planned economies, make them very attractive to associate with, giving said regimes almost a free pass. The US have even supported coups to bring in an ideal dictator, as they did in Chile with Pinochet.

I'm not suggesting we condone Communist dictatorships, what annoys me is the double standard hypocrisy on display here. We should treat all dictatorships equally (arguably equally hostile towards them), not pick and choose based on the different economic principles.

 

[DarloRich]

I dunno I think the US managed to be even more laughable last night when Biden signed an executive order that prohibits new investment, trade and financing by US persons to the separatist regions. The total of that must easily amount to two or three whole dollars!

I think both responses are what's known in the diplomatic trade as "weak as pi$$". Putin must be laughing his little kremlin off. What's is the next stage of our response? A strongly worded letter? Withdrawal of invites to tennis parties? ffs.

They haven't even docked Chelsea points!

 

[brad465]

Something to lighten the mood:

 

[GWRtom]

Russia now pulling out all of their diplomatic personal.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/22/russia-to-evacuate-diplomats-from-kyiv-a76528

Ukrainians protested in front of the Russian Embassy in Kyiv after Moscow recognized the independence of separatists in the east.
Russia on Tuesday said it would soon evacuate its diplomatic staff from Ukraine to "protect their lives," after lawmakers allowed President Vladimir Putin to use force abroad.
"To protect the lives and safety [of diplomats], the Russian leadership decided to evacuate the personnel of Russian foreign missions in Ukraine, which will be implemented in the near future," Moscow's foreign ministry said in a statement.
The ministry said that its diplomats have received threats and that its embassy and consulate has been under "repeated attacks."
"Ukraine has plunged deeper into chaos," the statement said.