Class 195 and 331 breakdown of order

[Philip]

I thought I'd make a thread to discuss/predict how many 195s and 331s will be required for each route they're going to work on and subsequently how many will be available for strengthening and whether this will be enough to reduce overcrowding.

Class 195 routes: (55 units)

Manchester Airport-Barrow and Windermere = 5 units?
Manchester Airport-Bradford = 4 units?
Manchester Airport-Liverpool = 2 units?
Liverpool-Bradford/Leeds = 5 units?
Chester-Leeds = 6 units?
Blackpool-York = 7 units?
Nottingham-Bradford = 5 units?
Hull-Sheffield-Lincoln = 6 units?

Have I got those about right? If so it means 40 units will be required just to fully cover the initial services. Another 7 or 8 units would then be out of service for maintenance, leaving only 7 or 8 units left for strengthening services, which seems a low number given these will only be 2 and 3-car trains.

Class 331 (4-car variant, 12 units):

Manchester-Hadfield/Glossop = 2 units?
Manchester-Stoke = 2 units?
Manchester-Crewe via Stockport = 2 units?
Manchester-Alderley Edge = 2 units?
Manchester-Macclesfield = 2 units?

That's 10 in service leaving 2 for maintenance which seems straightforward.

 

[northwichcat]

Note the following:

Hull to Sheffield
this route will become part of the Northern Connect network, with at least 13 trains per day each way operated by brand new diesel trains (out of a total of 17). Key intermediate stations including Brough and Goole will also benefit

Leeds to Nottingham
this route will become part of the Northern Connect network, with at least 10 trains per day each way operated by brand-new diesel trains

Lincoln to Sheffield
Lincoln-Sheffield will become part of the Northern Connect network, operated by new trains, with a minimum of 10 trains per day in each direction running through to Meadowhall, Barnsley, Wakefield and Leeds

Also note all 158s are to be refurbished to meet Northern Connect standards, so it allows those 3 routes to be a mix of 195s and 158s. I'd suggest maybe the off-peak services only will be 195s so that at peak times they can be used to strengthen other Northern Connect services.

I'm not sure what reasoning you'd decided for your 4 car 331 allocations. Glossop is 3 diagrams but you seem to have decided they'll be 2 x 4 car diagrams.

 

[Philip]

Note the following:



Also note all 158s are to be refurbished to meet Northern Connect standards, so it allows those 3 routes to be a mix of 195s and 158s. I'd suggest maybe the off-peak services only will be 195s so that at peak times they can be used to strengthen other Northern Connect services.

I'm not sure what reasoning you'd decided for your 4 car 331 allocations. Glossop is 3 diagrams but you seem to have decided they'll be 2 x 4 car diagrams.

Two diagrams would be enough though to cover the Glossop service, considering the journey is less than an hour.

I thought 158s were going to be based in the Newcastle area mainly?

 

[northwichcat]

Two diagrams would be enough though to cover the Glossop service, considering the journey is less than an hour.

Wouldn't work at peak times when there are 3tph between Manchester and Glossop though.

I thought 158s were going to be based in the Newcastle area mainly?

Where have you heard that? One North East service has been confirmed as getting refurbished 158s but that doesn't mean around 50 x 158s are being based at Heaton (8 x 158s are coming from Scotrail which is probably enough alone to cover the one Northern Connect North East route.)

Arriva's platform lengthening plans suggests they'll be at least one 5 car 158 working on the Clitheroe line.

 

[Boysteve]

I thought I'd make a thread to discuss/predict how many 195s and 331s will be required for each route they're going to work on and subsequently how many will be available for strengthening and whether this will be enough to reduce overcrowding.

Class 195 routes: (55 units)

Manchester Airport-Barrow and Windermere = 5 units?
Manchester Airport-Bradford = 4 units?
Manchester Airport-Liverpool = 2 units?
Liverpool-Bradford/Leeds = 5 units?
Chester-Leeds = 6 units?
Blackpool-York = 7 units?
Nottingham-Bradford = 5 units?
Hull-Sheffield-Lincoln = 6 units?

Have I got those about right? If so it means 40 units will be required just to fully cover the initial services. Another 7 or 8 units would then be out of service for maintenance, leaving only 7 or 8 units left for strengthening services, which seems a low number given these will only be 2 and 3-car trains.

Well Manchester Airport to Liverpool is not possible with two units, the journey time will be between 1h05m & 1h10m. However if the fleet rotates between routes at Manchester Airport the total number of units maybe achievable.

 

[D6975]

Now it's beginning to look like the Airport - Windermere may be D319 operated. I'm not sure of the franchise requirements, but if the non electrification of the branch is the cause then Northern might not have to meet them.

 

[D6975]

Two diagrams would be enough though to cover the Glossop service, considering the journey is less than an hour.

It's a half hourly frequency with an end to end journey time of about 40 mins. That means a minimum of 4 units are required. At peak hours there's an extra one, making 5.

 

[Philip]

It's a half hourly frequency with an end to end journey time of about 40 mins. That means a minimum of 4 units are required. At peak hours there's an extra one, making 5.

How will 12 units (10 in service probably) cover Glossop half-hourly, Crewe half-hourly, Stoke, Macclesfield and Alderley Edge shuttles? I thought the 12 4-car 331s were to replace all of the 323 diagrams across South Manchester?

 

[northwichcat]

It's a half hourly frequency with an end to end journey time of about 40 mins. That means a minimum of 4 units are required. At peak hours there's an extra one, making 5.

It's done in 72 minutes from leaving Piccadilly to getting back to Piccadilly at peak times as it doesn't go back to Glossop after leaving Hadfield: http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y64740/2017/02/01

The train used on 13:46 departure from Piccadilly is the same one used on the 15:18 departure so it works with 3 units off-peak - only just though and apparently changing the traction from a 323 to a 319 would mean it wouldn't work with 3 units.

 

[northwichcat]

How will 12 units (10 in service probably) cover Glossop half-hourly, Crewe half-hourly, Stoke, Macclesfield and Alderley Edge shuttles? I thought the 12 4-car 331s were to replace all of the 323 diagrams across South Manchester?

'Temporary 4 car EMUs' being replaced by brand new 4 car EMUs in 2020 has been mentioned for the Glossop route, which will arrive in the same batch as the 3 car replacements for the 321s and 322s in Yorkshire.

I think the intention is for the 3 car EMUs in the North West to be mainly used on Northern Connect routes but doesn't automatically mean all 'South Manchester' services will be 4 cars. Given the Alderley Edge shuttle isn't that well loaded as a 3 car service I'm not sure it'll need an extra carriage!

 

[Philip]

'Temporary 4 car EMUs' being replaced by brand new 4 car EMUs in 2020 has been mentioned for the Glossop route, which will arrive in the same batch as the 3 car replacements for the 321s and 322s in Yorkshire.

I think the intention is for the 3 car EMUs in the North West to be mainly used on Northern Connect routes but doesn't automatically mean all 'South Manchester' services will be 4 cars. Given the Alderley Edge shuttle isn't that well loaded as a 3 car service I'm not sure it'll need an extra carriage!

Doesn't the Alderley Edge share the same diagram as the Crewe stopper?

Has it been decided yet whether the Northern Connect from Blackpool will also form the semi-fast to Crewe beyond Manchester Airport? Would make sense.

 

[edwin_m]

Now it's beginning to look like the Airport - Windermere may be D319 operated. I'm not sure of the franchise requirements, but if the non electrification of the branch is the cause then Northern might not have to meet them.

I'm sure Northern can get a variation to the franchise due to NR's non-delivery.

 

[edwin_m]

I thought I'd make a thread to discuss/predict how many 195s and 331s will be required for each route they're going to work on and subsequently how many will be available for strengthening and whether this will be enough to reduce overcrowding.

Class 195 routes: (55 units)

Manchester Airport-Barrow and Windermere = 5 units?
Manchester Airport-Bradford = 4 units?
Manchester Airport-Liverpool = 2 units?
Liverpool-Bradford/Leeds = 5 units?
Chester-Leeds = 6 units?
Blackpool-York = 7 units?
Nottingham-Bradford = 5 units?
Hull-Sheffield-Lincoln = 6 units?

Have I got those about right? If so it means 40 units will be required just to fully cover the initial services. Another 7 or 8 units would then be out of service for maintenance, leaving only 7 or 8 units left for strengthening services, which seems a low number given these will only be 2 and 3-car trains.

Class 331 (4-car variant, 12 units):

Manchester-Hadfield/Glossop = 2 units?
Manchester-Stoke = 2 units?
Manchester-Crewe via Stockport = 2 units?
Manchester-Alderley Edge = 2 units?
Manchester-Macclesfield = 2 units?

That's 10 in service leaving 2 for maintenance which seems straightforward.

The original fleet sizes would have been based on Windermere being a 331, but I'd guess only the one unit as the times when one is on its way to Manchester and another on the way back would probably be off-peak when there are spare units off another route. So with a bit of juggling the spare 331 can release a 319. Four Flex units are proposed, which seems reasonable as Windermere needs two at some times of day and a good number of spare units is needed to ensure two are available. The others can work plain 319 diagrams.

 

[D6975]

The train used on 13:46 departure from Piccadilly is the same one used on the 15:18 departure so it works with 3 units off-peak - only just though and apparently changing the traction from a 323 to a 319 would mean it wouldn't work with 3 units.

My bad. You're quite right, at peaks going round the triangle and tighter turnround at Picc means that they can squeeze it down to 3 units. At least I was right about the off peak, it does need 4.
Good point about the 319s, 323s are very quick off the mark, so 319s would lose time compared to a 323 on a journey with lots of stops.

 

[Philip]

It may not mean much at this stage but in the official brief from Northern regarding the new services and trains, it specifically mentions new trains for the following DMU 'Connect' routes:

Sheffield to Hull
Bradford to Manchester Airport
Bradford to Liverpool
Manchester Airport to Liverpool
Manchester Airport to Barrow

On all of the other DMU Connect routes, there is no mention of 'new trains'. Perhaps the above will be exclusive 195s and the others at best a mix of 158s and 195s?

Worth noting too that of all of the Connect Calder Valley routes, only the Chester and Blackpool services are confirmed to serve Leeds. It also states that the Southport service will originate from either Leeds or Bradford Interchange.

 

[northwichcat]

It may not mean much at this stage but in the official brief from Northern regarding the new services and trains, it specifically mentions new trains for the following DMU 'Connect' routes:

Sheffield to Hull
Bradford to Manchester Airport
Bradford to Liverpool
Manchester Airport to Liverpool
Manchester Airport to Barrow

On all of the other DMU Connect routes, there is no mention of 'new trains'. Perhaps the above will be exclusive 195s and the others at best a mix of 158s and 195s?

Worth noting too that of all of the Connect Calder Valley routes, only the Chester and Blackpool services are confirmed to serve Leeds. It also states that the Southport service will originate from either Leeds or Bradford Interchange.

If you look at the DfT interactive map it says things like

Leeds to Nottingham
The benefits are:
this route will become part of the Northern Connect network, with at least 10 trains per day each way operated by brand-new diesel trains

Which I've presumed to mean some 158s along 195s. Possibly 158s at peak times to allow 195s to be doubled up on other routes?

However, Chester to Leeds was a route where the DfT map suggested all services would be operated by new trains, while Sheffield to Hull mentioned 17 services with 13 being operated by new trains.

The former TPE routes are the ones where Northern are required to operate a 'Northern Connect' level service, while the other ones are the ones they choose which might explain the inclusion of Airport-Liverpool and Airport-Barrow in that list.

 

[Andyh82]

I can't see any route that would run with a 2 car 195 on its own, as surely that would be a reduction in capacity? The only way it wouldn't be is if they were being used on a route currently run by a pacer.

 

[northwichcat]

I can't see any route that would run with a 2 car 195 on its own, as surely that would be a reduction in capacity? The only way it wouldn't be is if they were being used on a route currently run by a pacer.

The new 2 car 195s will have as many seats as the 150/1s but in 2+2 formation instead of 3+2 formation.

I've travelled on Calder Valley and Lincoln-Sheffield services operated by 2 car Pacers and 2 car 150s.

 

[Class 170101]

The new 2 car 195s will have as many seats as the 150/1s but in 2+2 formation instead of 3+2 formation.

Sounds like the seat pitch and space between seats / seat backs will be severely reduced.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

The new 2 car 195s will have as many seats as the 150/1s but in 2+2 formation instead of 3+2 formation.

I've travelled on Calder Valley and Lincoln-Sheffield services operated by 2 car Pacers and 2 car 150s.

According to Wikipedia (which we all know to be correct ) the 195s will have 124 seats, which is also the lower capacity figure for the Northern 150s, with others being as high as 149, according to the same source. Is there a more trustworthy source that says differently?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Sounds like the seat pitch and space between seats / seat backs will be severely reduced.

Remember they are also 6m longer...


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[Bletchleyite]

According to Wikipedia (which we all know to be correct ) the 195s will have 124 seats, which is also the lower capacity figure for the Northern 150s, with others being as high as 149, according to the same source. Is there a more trustworthy source that says differently?

The /2s with airline seats have more than the /1s. Also the large bogs take up lots of space, while some 150s don't have them.

Edit: apols to Yorkie for the below, I thought I'd turned it off. Will try again.

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[Andyh82]

According to Wikipedia (which we all know to be correct ) the 195s will have 124 seats, which is also the lower capacity figure for the Northern 150s, with others being as high as 149, according to the same source. Is there a more trustworthy source that says differently?

The ones that FNW refurbished with facing seats and disabled toilets seat 124, the ex ATN ones that are in original condition with airline seating seat 149

 

[Frothy]

I can't see any route that would run with a 2 car 195 on its own, as surely that would be a reduction in capacity? The only way it wouldn't be is if they were being used on a route currently run by a pacer.

I can imagine Leeds-Sheffield-Lincoln running as a 2-car 195.

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[northwichcat]

According to Wikipedia (which we all know to be correct ) the 195s will have 124 seats, which is also the lower capacity figure for the Northern 150s, with others being as high as 149, according to the same source. Is there a more trustworthy source that says differently?

Yes the Northern franchise agreement confirms those figures.

The ex-LM 150/2s have more seats crammed in than the other 150s and the ex-FNW ones have less seats than the rest.

 

[northwichcat]

Remember they are also 6m longer...

Yes. The 2 car 195 seating figure is consistent with a standard class only 2 car 170.

 

[Philip]

Is it possible that Northern want to prioritise 158s on the Connect routes which are likely to take more long distance passengers (ie. going end-end)? The 158s are more suited for long distance travelling, less so for busy short-distance commutes. The 195s on the other hand will have a similar door layout to 185s so perhaps these will be priortised for routes dominated by short distance commuting?

Chester-Leeds: this seems to have the potential for a lot of end-end journeys (and beyond). Ideal for 158s?

Blackpool-York: not a huge market really.

Bradford-Liverpool: again not a big market.

Bradford-Man Airport: more of a case than the above two but perhaps Northern expect most end to end passengers to change at Leeds then TPE to Manchester Airport. This and the above two are all about an improved Calder Valley service, connecting the Calder Valley stations with the nearest big cities. Ideal for 195s?

Manchester-Barrow: once again not a big market for end-end journeys, this will be all about giving Wigan and Preston a fast service to Manchester. So 195s fit the bill.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The ex-LM 150/2s have more seats crammed in than the other 150s and the ex-FNW ones have less seats than the rest.

The ex-LM (and current LM) 150/2s are as built, the others have had seats removed e.g. to add big bogs.

150/1s had a less dense all-facing layout as built, but the ex-FNW ones have had seating reduced further because of the large bog.

 

[darloscott]

I would say the journeys via the Calder Valley ie Bradford-Man Airport and Leeds-Chester would be likely to get 195's with the amount of local journeys made across those routes. York to Blackpool similarly will have a lot of local usage. Can't put 195's everywhere though

 

[northwichcat]

For Liverpool-Manchester and Manchester-Chester Northern will be competing with other franchises so might want to show that they have some decent new trains, especially if they want to sell Advance fares without undercutting the rival operator.