Commuting 'not coming back': Harper

[yorkie]

I was disappointed by how low passenger numbers were yesterday between York and Leeds, despite absolutely huge gaps in the service (reduced service plus cancellations/delays).

The idea that passenger journeys are back to what they were pre-Covid is totally absurd. But if anyone claims no-one is commuting that's also completely absurd. As usual, the truth is somewhere in between!

Before the train I caught (which didn't depart until around 1817!), the 1744 from York to Plymouth was only 4 cars and yet when I saw it depart, it did not appear to be full and standing as I suspected it would be when I saw it was only 4 cars, and this is despite the removal of the fast XC trains via Doncaster. Where on earth are the extra several hundred people who would have previously been travelling? I suspect XC is succeeding in their attempts to price them off the railway, at the behest of the DfT.

The prices are so high and the service so dire, I know so many people who simply travel by car and won't consider the train. This mentality is completely different to much of western manland Europe.

 

[Master29]

I take most things that he says with a pinch of salt.

Exactly. What a crock of manure.

 

[dk1]

Pretty much everyone I know who has an agile working policy works in the office Mon - Thu and works from home on Friday, me included.

I had noticed that many years ago. Always seemed such a shame as Friday afternoon & evenings were so full of life around the bars in the square mile.

 

[mirodo]

The only quiet day for commuting seems to be Friday. I suspect a lot of people adopt the old ‘POETS’ day philosophy & work from home. Certainly commuting around Birmingham is very busy.

If you don’t know about ‘POETS’ day, ask a responsible adult, better still irresponsible adult

There's another acronym for those who work from home on days either side of the weekend, and only commute in to work on Tuesdays, Wednesdays And Thursdays...

 

[jon0844]

There's another acronym for those who work from home on days either side of the weekend, and only commute in to work on Tuesdays, Wednesdays And Thursdays...

Will we see you next Tuesday?

 

[mirodo]

Will we see you next Tuesday?

No chance! I have a regular early Tuesday morning meeting, so if I do go in, it's usually Wednesday or Thursday.

 

[JonathanH]

I do wonder whether certain infrastructure projects are worth taking forward in the current environment. Croydon remodelling for example is mostly about increasing commuter capacity.

It seems pretty clear that projects of this nature that mainly affect commuter capacity will not be taken forward. What is a little surprising is that Network Rail still have a page for this on their website.

 

[newtownmgr]

There's another acronym for those who work from home on days either side of the weekend, and only commute in to work on Tuesdays, Wednesdays And Thursdays...

Umm! let me think on that!

 

[SussexSeagull]

It seems pretty clear that projects of this nature that mainly affect commuter capacity will not be taken forward. What is a little surprising is that Network Rail still have a page for this on their website.

In an ideal world it would go forward in an attempt to future proof and build capacity but I imagine it is way down the list now.

The actual station does need work though.

 

[7031]

I was disappointed by how low passenger numbers were yesterday between York and Leeds, despite absolutely huge gaps in the service (reduced service plus cancellations/delays).

The idea that passenger journeys are back to what they were pre-Covid is totally absurd. But if anyone claims no-one is commuting that's also completely absurd. As usual, the truth is somewhere in between!

Indeed - completely anecdotal admittedly but where I live at least I can say that the trains are certainly busy again, no doubt, but they're also clearly much less busy than they were pre-pandemic.

What I have also observed (again, anecdotal) is that more people are having late starts so whilst the early trains are less busy there's still a pretty solid stream of people getting the train in a bit later.

 

[bramling]

It seems pretty clear that projects of this nature that mainly affect commuter capacity will not be taken forward. What is a little surprising is that Network Rail still have a page for this on their website.

That strategy is seriously risky, as we’ve been there before where capacity has been stalled, then demand grows and there is a massive problem. The attrition of fleet sizes will probably lead to this for sure, especially if surplus fleets like 350/2 and 379 find themselves being disposed of.

I agree it’s probably what’s going to happen though, rightly or wrongly, and if the money really isn’t there at the moment then there probably isn’t much choice.

 

[Starmill]

The Full hansard debate is here: https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commo...D947-674D-42D2-925F-CC8419FDB131/RailServices

The relevant answer is in Column 33 here: https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commo...ribution-70352E30-AA76-450C-98A4-BFB23A978708

Thank you. So he's not being misquoted then, he's just wrong. If he had said there would be a small permanent reduction in office commuting, especially to London and especially over medium and longer distance, then he would be right.

 

[Starmill]

I do wonder whether certain infrastructure projects are worth taking forward in the current environment. Croydon remodelling for example is mostly about increasing commuter capacity.

Many people would say that the enhancements capital budget is larger already than it should be with such a narrow maintenance and renewal scope. This is likely to get worse in the next control period rather than better i.e. over time the net condition of the infrastructure on aggregate will get worse rather than better.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Has he seen London Bridge over the past few months?

 

[brad465]

Sounds more like a threat than factual, but I might just be a massive cynic.

Jacob Rees-Mogg and other luddites must be livid at what Harper said, threat or no threat.

 

[Fleetmaster]

Fridays is definitely the new Saturday, certainly in the provinces. Ironically this may only be detectable to people whose lives already a!low them to be out and about on Fridays, both early doors and during the day. Dual carriageways are clear at peak times, buses run to time all day, town centres and parks and gyms are just busier in general.

Weirdly, this might even be affecting school truancy, becoming the day of choice that parents schedule routine doctor's or dentist's appointments. It perhaps feels less wrong with teachers on perma-strike and doctors/dentists still in short supply.

Even Mondays still feel a little odd, judging by who is standing at the bus stop after 9am. No longer just parents and pensioners, but real people with real lives to live, whether happy or sad, definitely not indifferent.

 

[baz962]

It is indeed! Some clearly just have agenda to moan and criticise constantly. It gets a little wearing.

They aren’t describing the railway I work on and use almost every day, I imagine it’s the same for you!

Other than one or two early afternoon trains it's brutal. Pretty much every inter city I work I have to climb over people to access my cab from the inside ( I prefer to do this as the lock is practically platform level outside).

 

[northwichcat]

To a large extent this is self-limiting. The number of commuters into a city won't exceed the number of desks they have to work at. Of course it's not quite that simple - the same amount of floorspace may accommodate more people if they are collaborating rather than sitting at individual desks - but a lot of collaborative events aren't over a whole day so the related travel may be off-peak.

Yes the post-pandemic level can't go above the pre-pandemic level, unless there was unused space prior to the pandemic or more offices have been built. However, it's worth remembering prior to the pandemic you might have had one company employing 50 people taking up the entire floor. Now you could have three companies, each employing 100, based on that floor, even though there's unlikely to be a situation where all 300 employees will be there on the same day at the same time. If you have remote employees commuting long distances, who are able to claim travel back on expenses, then the off-peak train ticket times will likely have an effect on the start and end times of collaboration sessions.

The biggest losers are the small towns and it's also caused hospitality firms based in small towns to see their weekday revenues plummet. Generally the small towns are the ones that won't have lots of rail commuters, as there tends to be less good public transport and roads tend to be less congested. There are some exceptions though like Wilmslow due to the ICO being based there and Knutsford due to Barclays locating their technology centre there.

 

[Edsmith]

Indeed. As many of us keep attempting to point out. Unfortunately, office commuting is recovering, though it may not return to the 2019 level for years yet, but business travel is another story.

It won’t return to pre pandemic levels because many former office blocks have been converted to flats.

 

[al78]

Even Mondays still feel a little odd, judging by who is standing at the bus stop after 9am. No longer just parents and pensioners, but real people with real lives to live, whether happy or sad, definitely not indifferent.

Aren't parents and pensioners real people with real lives to live?

 

[Starmill]

It won’t return to pre pandemic levels because many former office blocks have been converted to flats.

It's always very dangerous to predict far into the future.

 

[jon0844]

It won’t return to pre pandemic levels because many former office blocks have been converted to flats.

Did that really happen at any significant level? Most of the offices turned apartments actually seems to have happened pre-Covid.

 

[Fleetmaster]

A fair few people now also live in flats made from repurposed local retail units, whose only real selling point is surely that your front door is yards from a bus stop at worst.

 

[Class15]

As a regular commuter, it looks like the busiest days are Tuesday - Thursday.

 

[InkyScrolls]

I've just heard the Transport Secretary saying in answer to a question in parliamant this afternoon (around 16.12) that he doesn't think commuter rail will be coming back post-pandemic- at:

Parliamentlive.tv

House of Commons

www.parliamentlive.tv

Time to expect increasing timetables to facilitate leisure travel (esp weekends and off-peak) and fewer 'rush-hour commuter trains'; that should take pressure out of the system- fewer traincrew needed at peak times; fewer trains stood in sidings most of the day.

Which is complete nonsense, as anyone who has seen Leeds station at rush hour will testify!

 

[mrmartin]

There's also another angle to this. I'm sure I read a while ago that new housing developments weren't being allowed near many stations as they were too overcrowded. Now that's not the case (presumably), can more housing projects go ahead (at least in London?)

 

[DC1989]

Certainly it won't go back to how it was, as others have mentioned Friday were lower anyway. Increasing number of companies are offering 4 days a week too.

 

[Fleetmaster]

There's also another angle to this. I'm sure I read a while ago that new housing developments weren't being allowed near many stations as they were too overcrowded. Now that's not the case (presumably), can more housing projects go ahead (at least in London?)

As far as I knew and certainly see often, housing (estates) are still being built in the easiest/cheapest places to build them, farmland on the edge of town. Railways literally aren't even a factor, other than the fact they usually allow quick access to a trunk road which hopefully gets you to a parkway station somewhere before noon.

I've seen estates built right next to an in use line, but no sign of anyone thinking what a great idea it would be to open a station. It was twenty years before urban creep infilled a stretch of tramway I know, before it actually led to an extra stop. That took about ten different organisations working together. They had the cheek to open it with a ribbon cutting ceremony. They could have combined it with the primary school graduations of the kids born to families in the next door estate!

 

[swissrailpassion]

The official figures show rail use is at 100% of pre pandemic levels.

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1635955580522184707?t=9QE3HYd4-3lr-v3FLAjWjA&s=19

As for TPE, the service is so dire and unpredictable that many passengers have simply abandoned travel with them.

6 hr service gaps at Cleethorpes have destroyed any sense of reliability.

 

[Edsmith]

Did that really happen at any significant level? Most of the offices turned apartments actually seems to have happened pre-Covid.

Yes it was happening pre-pandemic but it certainly seems to have accelerated recently.

As a regular commuter, it looks like the busiest days are Tuesday - Thursday.

That's very much my experience as well.