Conservative Party after the election

[telstarbox]

Who will be the leader and will they go more to the centre or stay on the populist / near Reform angle?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

That really is an excellent question. Obviously the leader would have to come from a safe Conservative constituency- it would make most sense.

 

[telstarbox]

If there is such a thing as a safe seat...

 

[dosxuk]

There will definitely still be a party - it's only whether they have a notable number of MP's that is at question. There'll still be a lot of them in the Lords for the foreseeable at the very least.

If things go as badly as the polls predict, could we see a split form?

 

[SynthD]

Rebecca Harris won Castle Point (south Essex) with 76% of the vote, highest for any Tory. One noteworthy point about this constituency is that it has one of the lowest levels of university graduates.

With Farage working for US ‘news’ broadcasters, Reform will not do well. This will let their dream of success continue for another year, kept alive by the media. In that case, the Tories will still be pulled in that direction for the rest of the year. They may have a come to Jesus moment, but it will be a supply-side Jesus.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think the question is impossible to answer right now because it will all depend on how badly the Tories do at the next election. Plus, if they do as badly as some polls are predicting, a number of their MPs who might have become their next leader will have become ineligible by losing their seats, so a lot could depend on which ones are actually still MPs. The only thing I'd be confident in predicting is that there is going to be a lot of soul-searching, arguing, division, and basically tearing themselves to bits amongst the Tories for the next couple of years.

 

[sor]

hard to answer. not all tories have even declared their intentions, let alone who ends up keeping their seats. IIRC, Tory party rules mandate that the leader must be an MP, so it's not like they can just give it to Lord Dave for a bit while they figure out what to do

but disregarding any of that, i'm still thinking it'll be between mordaunt and badenoch of the sane vs insane wings respectively

 

[Energy]

We'll see a repeat of the early 2000s, after long enough the Conservative HQ will have thrown out the far-right figures and will return to more centralist conservatism.

The party will struggle as long as they keep on trying to appeal to the far right, Reform has got that small market while extreme views and unpopular figures like Suella Braverman alienate the rest of the country.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

------- i'm still thinking it'll be between Mordaunt --

Not a bad shout come to think of it.
Rishi seat is safe relatively isn't it?

 

[3141]

I think the question is impossible to answer right now because it will all depend on how badly the Tories do at the next election. Plus, if they do as badly as some polls are predicting, a number of their MPs who might have become their next leader will have become ineligible by losing their seats, so a lot could depend on which ones are actually still MPs. The only thing I'd be confident in predicting is that there is going to be a lot of soul-searching, arguing, division, and basically tearing themselves to bits amongst the Tories for the next couple of years.

I agree that's how it's likely to go. There will be many arguments among the various factions about why their loss has been so great and what should have been done to avoid it. A leader will be chosen from among the remaining MPs. Whom they choose will depend on who is available and the views of the majority of Conservative MPs in the new Parliament; if most of them are right-wingers they are likely to choose one of those. How things subsequently develop will depend partly on how well the new government performs and what sort of majority it has. Conservatives might be facing a prolonged period in opposition during which they may re-define themselves in some way. External events will inevitably have an impact: if Russia invades other countries, or other members of the EU decide to exit, such events will help shape what the UK must do and the policies that UK political parties adopt.

 

[SteveM70]

https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/MPs?order_by=majority_descent

This might be interesting for people trying to work out who may end up as Tory leader after the election and Sunak's likely exit to California - a list of all MPs ordered by the size of their majority.

 

[Busaholic]

https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/MPs?order_by=majority_descent

This might be interesting for people trying to work out who may end up as Tory leader after the election and Sunak's likely exit to California - a list of all MPs ordered by the size of their majority.

This must hinge on whether Sunak retains his seat; if he doesn't, then a leader must be chosen from one of the remaining rump of Tories. If he does, would he show his gratitude to the people of Richmond, Yorkshire, by quitting immediately? That should be a rhetorical question, but I wouldn't put it past him doing the dirty on them. Much talk in political circles the last few months both of Johnson attempting a comeback and Farage being allowed back into the party, with what in mind you might ask. Neither would wish for a backbench life.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

This must hinge on whether Sunak retains his seat; if he doesn't, then a leader must be chosen from one of the remaining rump of Tories. If he does, would he show his gratitude to the people of Richmond, Yorkshire, by quitting immediately? That should be a rhetorical question, but I wouldn't put it past him doing the dirty on them. Much talk in political circles the last few months both of Johnson attempting a comeback and Farage being allowed back into the party, with what in mind you might ask. Neither would wish for a backbench life.

I'd be amazed if Sunak actually lost his seat but how long he hangs around afterwards is another question. Can't see Farage even wanting back in, his current position talking his own brand of nonsense on tv and getting paid for it is a much easier screw. A Johnson comeback is perfectly possible if only to avoid having a real loony as leader.

 

[edwin_m]

We'll see a repeat of the early 2000s, after long enough the Conservative HQ will have thrown out the far-right figures and will return to more centralist conservatism.

The party will struggle as long as they keep on trying to appeal to the far right, Reform has got that small market while extreme views and unpopular figures like Suella Braverman alienate the rest of the country.

For the purposes of this thread I think we take it as read that they lose badly. Sunak will be out as leader whether he keeps his seat or not, and will have little relevance to what some next.

After the 1997 defeat there were a fair few more moderate Tory MPs remaining, but most of those remaining were thrown out by Johnson. So the party is even more likely to conclude it wasn't right wing enough and move further in that direction, and to take longer to head back to the centre if it ever does.

I'd say this is unlikely for at least 10 years. If we have electoral reform by then, it's likely there would be a centre-right party and a further right party, and the two might govern in coalition or the centre-right might form a coalition with a party of the centre or even centre-left. Which, if any, inherits the Conservative name is an open question.

 

[Busaholic]

I'd be amazed if Sunak actually lost his seat but how long he hangs around afterwards is another question. Can't see Farage even wanting back in, his current position talking his own brand of nonsense on tv and getting paid for it is a much easier screw. A Johnson comeback is perfectly possible if only to avoid having a real loony as leader.

I'd be pleasantly surprised too, but I remember a poll last year of, I think, over 10,000 people when Labour were 21 0r 22% ahead that showed he'd lose it under those circumstances. If Reform stood and got even three or four thousand, he could well lose.

For the purposes of this thread I think we take it as read that they lose badly. Sunak will be out as leader whether he keeps his seat or not, and will have little relevance to what some next.

After the 1997 defeat there were a fair few more moderate Tory MPs remaining, but most of those remaining were thrown out by Johnson. So the party is even more likely to conclude it wasn't right wing enough and move further in that direction, and to take longer to head back to the centre if it ever does.

I'd say this is unlikely for at least 10 years. If we have electoral reform by then, it's likely there would be a centre-right party and a further right party, and the two might govern in coalition or the centre-right might form a coalition with a party of the centre or even centre-left. Which, if any, inherits the Conservative name is an open question.

I'm afraid that, for once, I'm not following you. What's Johnson got to do with the 1997 result, when John Major was the leader of the Tories and retained his seat? It was three leaders later under Michael Howard that the buffoon Johnson was given his first chance to make a ministerial cock-up, which he duly did of course.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm afraid that, for once, I'm not following you. What's Johnson got to do with the 1997 result, when John Major was the leader of the Tories and retained his seat? It was three leaders later under Michael Howard that the buffoon Johnson was given his first chance to make a ministerial cock-up, which he duly did of course.

My thought was that in 1997 the party had a much broader range of viewpoints including significant numbers of centre-right, but still swerved to the right after their defeat until it returned somewhat to the centre under Cameron. This year, I think it will do the same, but with far fewer moderate voices amongst their MPs (for reasons including their sacking by Johnson) it will go further that way and for longer.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

My thought was that in 1997 the party had a much broader range of viewpoints including significant numbers of centre-right, but still swerved to the right after their defeat until it returned somewhat to the centre under Cameron. This year, I think it will do the same, but with far fewer moderate voices amongst their MPs (for reasons including their sacking by Johnson) it will go further that way and for longer.

That's something like what I would expect too. You have the fact that 'centre-right' voices are currently in a minority in the Tory party, combined with the usual tendency of parties that lose elections to head away from the centre as their activists demand more ideological purity - as well evidenced by Labour in the past as well as the Tories post-1997. Until 10 or so years later they belatedly realise that they are never going to win an election until they move back to the centre (Tony Blair in 1997, David Cameron in 2010, and very likely Keir Starmer today).

 

[Bald Rick]

They are in big trouble.

The bookies have them absolutely nailed on to lose 200+ seats. That would put them as a rather smaller party in parliament than even the 1997 election - could be as few as 120-130 seats. Given that quite a few Conservative MPs with very large majorities are leaving office, the losses could be even bigger. There won’t be many of them that feel completely secure, even in Tory heartlands, especially if Reform stand against them (which they will, generally).

As said above I agree that it will come down to a choice between Morduant and The Wolf(TM), and I suspect that the latter will be more popular with those of lesser control of their eye movements, and so will win the leadership, thus consigning the Conservatives to losing the next election too.

 

[SteveM70]

As said above I agree that it will come down to a choice between Morduant and The Wolf(TM), and I suspect that the latter be more popular with those of lesser control of their eye movements, and so will win the leadership, thus consigning the Conservatives to losing the next election too.

Mordaunt is by no means sure of winning her seat

 

[DelW]

As said above I agree that it will come down to a choice between Morduant and The Wolf(TM), and I suspect that the latter be more popular with those of lesser control of their eye movements, and so will win the leadership, thus consigning the Conservatives to losing the next election too.

60506 or 87027 though?

 

[nw1]

Rebecca Harris won Castle Point (south Essex) with 76% of the vote, highest for any Tory. One noteworthy point about this constituency is that it has one of the lowest levels of university graduates.

A curious constituency by the looks of it - Labour even won it for a time in 1997, for one term, unlike say Canterbury which was solid Tory throughout the Blair years.

The Tory majorities in 2010 or even 2015 weren't immense, though 2010 was complicated by the presence of the previous Tory MP Bob Spink standing as an independent.

All that said there was one idea of Rebecca Harris that I did fervently support - all year round BST.

Mordaunt is by no means sure of winning her seat

Not a certainty but I suspect local following and the conservatism of that half of Portsmouth means that she is more likely to hold it than other comparable seats.

https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/MPs?order_by=majority_descent

This might be interesting for people trying to work out who may end up as Tory leader after the election and Sunak's likely exit to California - a list of all MPs ordered by the size of their majority.

Marc Francois or Gavin Willamson! (or, slightly less interestingly, Steve Barclay).

 

[Bald Rick]

the previous Tory MP Bob Spink

Comfortably the least pleasant MP I ever had the ‘pleasure’ of meeting.

 

[Cross City]

Penny Mordaunt and they will move to the centre. The vote on the right will be split for a long time.

 

[JamesT]

Penny Mordaunt and they will move to the centre. The vote on the right will be split for a long time.

I think it depends who stands. Absent any shenanigans like those that gave us Sunak (i.e. nobody else standing, Mordaunt withdrew before it got to a ballot), the MPs will supply two candidates to the membership. I fully expect them to then pick the rightmost of the two.
Looking at the previous leadership election the last two eliminated before the final two were Mordaunt and Badenoch. According to the most recent ConservativeHome poll https://conservativehome.com/2024/0...et-league-table-douglas-ross-in-fourth-place/ Badenoch was easily the most popular member of the Cabinet.

 

[Gloster]

I think that a lot will depend on the balance of the party after the election. I read somewhere that a lot of those being selected for winnable seats, although this was a while back and the meaning of ‘winnable’ may have changed, were on the right side of the party spectrum. If this is still true and also reflects the political balance of the survivors, the likelihood would be an even more right-wing leader and a further shift to the right: it does seem likely, based on the last two leadership contests, that the MPs would offer the party membership a choice between two right-wingers.

 

[DerekC]

There are a lot of chickens being counted whilst still at the egg stage here. I hope you aren't tempting fate! It might just be Rishi Triumphant with a paper-thin majority. Has anyone mentioned Mr Farage yet?

 

[dangie]

One could argue, that should the unthinkable happen and the Conservatives get re-elected, the Labour Party in its current guise is maybe not finished, but major changes are required.

 

[nw1]

Comfortably the least pleasant MP I ever had the ‘pleasure’ of meeting.

Indeed, having read up a bit more on him I'm inclined to agree that this is likely the case.

There are a lot of chickens being counted whilst still at the egg stage here. I hope you aren't tempting fate! It might just be Rishi Triumphant with a paper-thin majority. Has anyone mentioned Mr Farage yet?

That would be really extraordinary; what makes you think that might happen?

 

[takno]

Penny Mordaunt and they will move to the centre. The vote on the right will be split for a long time.

Penny Mordaunt is at best on the centrist end of the right wing of the party. Compared to the party of even 10 years ago she's a fully-signed-up right-wing nutcase.

 

[Gloster]

I have to agree that as long as there is a possibility of Reform doing a deal, there is a chance that Labour will not get an absolute majority. It is even within bounds that a Conservative/Reform/DUP coalition could form the next government. If Reform do run a proper campaign, then I think it is almost certain that Labour will be the largest party and probably have a workable majority. Only if something truly bizarre or horrific happens can I see the Conservatives winning if Reform fight.