She's moderate compared to some of them, but not always: "He stands up for me Lee".
What a cocktail. The current Tory party supported by two hard-right fringe parties.
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Conservative Party after the election
- Thread starter telstarbox
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She's moderate compared to some of them, but not always: "He stands up for me Lee".
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R
RailUK Forums
There is almost no chance of a Conservative government in any form. They will be the second largest party, in the same way that Notts County are the second largest football team in Nottingham.
The chances of Reform winning any seats is slim - the bookies are offering 5/1 that they win 1 or 2 seats, and 7/1 that they win 3 or 4 seats.
317 forever
Established Member
An MP with similar views but a more gentle temperament would be Claire Coutinho. She is comparatively unassuming and less likely to feel the public have a duty to elect her as Prime Minister. Plus her constituency of East Surrey is a safer Tory seat.
Halwynd
Member
I'll go for a complete wild card...
Andy Street stands for Parliament, is elected, and then replaces Sunak when the inevitable happens.
He's an adult and seems to have his head screwed on the right way. The Tories could, and probably will, do a lot worse.
Andy Street stands for Parliament, is elected, and then replaces Sunak when the inevitable happens.
He's an adult and seems to have his head screwed on the right way. The Tories could, and probably will, do a lot worse.
That is probably where they need to go, but I imagine that they’re already dusting off their blunderbusses ready to take aim at their own feet.
I really am quite pleased to see this make a reappearance.
I see that the Conservatives are proposing bringing back National Service. How many of the Hang, Flog and National Service did me a world of good (not) generation are still around.
Put that in the Manifesto among other things and will take the title of the longest suicide note in history from the 1983 Labour Manifesto.
Put that in the Manifesto among other things and will take the title of the longest suicide note in history from the 1983 Labour Manifesto.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Yes, that is probably the best outcome we can expect.
Look out for whether Street is trying to get himself a seat. Which Tory MPs in the West Midlands have recently announced they are standing down, so their local parties may be in urgent need of a replacement?
AlanL
Member
The Conservatives are in a terrible mess (created by internal corrupt right wing influences) and they will probably become a fringe extremist party and will have to face many years in the political wilderness - what a fall from grace from the once 'one nation' centre right party!
I saw Bill Cash was standing down the other day. Stone is a safe Tory seat.
I agree Street would probably be one of the top candidates to steer the Tories in a better direction. While I am not a Tory voter, I would welcome a move back to the centre ground, as it means that if they got back in again in 2029, say, they would be a good deal more palatable.
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edwin_m
Veteran Member
Answering my own question, I found this interactive map of MPs standing down, colour-coded by party and with name and date of announcement on a popup. It looks like all the ones in the Wet Midlands announced their decisions some time ago, so they probably have replacements already in place.
Which MPs are standing down before the next election? Full list mapped
Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay becomes the latest in a post-war record number of Tory MPs to be standing down.
Halwynd
Member
Answering my own question, I found this interactive map of MPs standing down, colour-coded by party and with name and date of announcement on a popup. It looks like all the ones in the Wet Midlands announced their decisions some time ago, so they probably have replacements already in place.
Which MPs are standing down before the next election? Full list mapped
Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay becomes the latest in a post-war record number of Tory MPs to be standing down.uk.yahoo.com
Stratford upon Avon might be a good bet?
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Here's a story from the Stratford Herald from two days ago that lists some not-Street names before disappearing behind a paywall.
Who’s in and who’s out? The search for Stratford’s new Conservative candidate
From David Cameron’s sister-in-law to the chairman of Stratford Town FC - find out who may be in the frame for the role.
It's also copy protected so I'm not posting a quote.
It looks like it's just a list of local councillors. If Central Office decided to parachute Street in then I'm not sure they'd get much choice. On the other hand I don't know if Central Office actually like Street very much. He's not exactly a pure blue-blooded baby boiler, and that wing of the party still seems very much in control.Here's a story from the Stratford Herald from two days ago that lists some not-Street names before disappearing behind a paywall.
Who’s in and who’s out? The search for Stratford’s new Conservative candidate
From David Cameron’s sister-in-law to the chairman of Stratford Town FC - find out who may be in the frame for the role.www.stratford-herald.com
It's also copy protected so I'm not posting a quote.
D6130
Established Member
I take it that you've never met Craig Whittaker (Con. Calder Valley) then?
The last time I spoke to Whittaker he had his then protege (and employee) Scott Benton with him, so amazingly Whittaker wasn't even the most unpleasant politician in the room
(Whittaker was actually a nice bloke until he went into politics, we were neighbours in Heptonstall for a few years)
D6130
Established Member
The one and only time I met him he spent most of the time 'admiring' my wife's breasts.
I really am quite pleased to see this make a reappearance.
Thought you might!
I haven’t. There’s a lot of MPs I haven‘t met though!
D6130
Established Member
You're lucky.....especially if you had met him while accompanied by your wife/partner. (See my post # 47).
Recent history suggests that any of the current crop of Tories who make it into the new parliament would be well advised to keep their heads down if they have aspirations to be Prime Minister one day. It seems unlikely that Labour will lose the next election if they get a reasonable majority in July, and any Tory leader losing an election would probably be expected to fall on their sword. It's quite likely that the next Tory PM is not currently an MP and quite possible that they may not even be amongst the modest batch of new Tory MPs who will be elected in July.
Well let's hope so.
They might not even be born yet. We can hope…
Had the 1997 election been one year later in 1998 (which could have happened if there had been a 1988 election and then a 1993 election) it could have been theoretically possible for a Labour MP to be elected who wasn't born by 3 May 1979 when they were last in power, I guess.
The Conservatives are - depending on how much they get thumped - probably likely to have a good couple of years licking their wounds, regrouping and developing a more centrist / sensible platform to be able to challenge Labour in the mid-2030s.
Unlikely. Normally most parties have a shelf-life of 15-20 years (Thatcher/Major was 18, Blair/Brown was 13). So we'd expect them to at worst be in power early '40s. I imagine the next Tory [insert right wing party] PM will probably be someone born in the 20th century.
Of course if the party completely implodes/splinters then that's another matter!
Unlikely. Normally most parties have a shelf-life of 15-20 years (Thatcher/Major was 18, Blair/Brown was 13). So we'd expect them to at worst be in power early '40s. I imagine the next Tory [insert right wing party] PM will probably be someone born in the 20th century.
Of course if the party completely implodes/splinters then that's another matter!
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Exactly my thinking too. Labour is by no means certain to win. All it takes is the "Shy Tory" factor, as in 1992, and Sunak will remain as PM but with a much reduced majority. That is how I think the result will pan out. I feel that the press are overestimating Labour's lead - Starmer needs a huge swing just to get a majority of one.
I just don't understand why you think that.
Are you saying the opinion polls and the local elections count for absolutely nothing and are completely wrong?
This is nothing like 1992. Labour's lead is vastly more than in 1992 (when the Tories were often level or even ahead in the 12 months before the election). Further more the Tories are not led by a moderate John Major figure. They are led by clueless, right-wing authoritarians.
You say Starmer needs a huge swing, that ignores how atypical the 2019 election was. The Tories got an impressive-looking majority but many of those gains were very marginal and will be easily wiped out. And more importantly, there was the Boris factor. There is no Boris to save them this time. 2017 is probably a better comparator. If there had not been a 2019 election, we'd probably have had a 2022 election in the wake of Covid and partygate. and I can just imagine how that would have panned out. Not well for the Tories, so the anomalous 2019 election would never have happened.
People might not be that enamoured by Starmer but there is a lot of intense dislike for the Tories.
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There is a differnece between ‘certainty’ (guaranteed) and ‘overwhelmingly likely’. I would says Labour win is in the latter category.
The bookies are rarely wrong in such matters, and a Conservative Governement of any type - Majority, Minority, or in coalition (with anyone!) is in the region of 30/1. For what is essentially a two horse race, those are very, very long odds.
Labour do need a large swing, true, of around 12%. However there have been 7 by elections in the last 8 months, and with the exception of Galloway’s result in Rochdale (which obviously was a very specific local campaign and does not reflect national trends), the other 6 all had swings to Labour of 16%+, and 5 of them 20%+. I would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the 12% swing required will happen.
Re ‘Shy Tory’ - yes that is a factor, however we have somethign this year that I’ve rarely seen before, and that is shy Tories coming out and saying they are shy Tories and won’t be voting for them this time.
Cross City
Member
It's pure copium.
The bookies are indeed rarely wrong - money at stake really sharpens the focus!
You also have to consider some of the whopping by-election swings from Tories > Lib Dems (North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, Somerton and Frome) as evidence that they will also eat away at any Tory majority in selected seats.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
In 1992 the Tories had a credible record on the economy, and their negatives on the poll tax and other legacy issues were largely nullified by getting rid of Thatcher. This year it's honestly difficult to see them having any sort of track record that would make people want to vote for them at all.
There's also much more public awareness of the possibilities of tactical voting.
There's also much more public awareness of the possibilities of tactical voting.
Backroom_boy
Member
My one doubt about Andy Street is his bonkers partner....