Exactly my thinking too. Labour is by no means certain to win. All it takes is the "Shy Tory" factor, as in 1992, and Sunak will remain as PM but with a much reduced majority. That is how I think the result will pan out. I feel that the press are overestimating Labour's lead - Starmer needs a huge swing just to get a majority of one.
There is a differnece between ‘certainty’ (guaranteed) and ‘overwhelmingly likely’. I would says Labour win is in the latter category.
The bookies are rarely wrong in such matters, and a Conservative Governement of any type - Majority, Minority, or in coalition (with anyone!) is in the region of 30/1. For what is essentially a two horse race, those are very, very long odds.
Labour do need a large swing, true, of around 12%. However there have been 7 by elections in the last 8 months, and with the exception of Galloway’s result in Rochdale (which obviously was a very specific local campaign and does not reflect national trends), the other 6 all had swings to Labour of 16%+, and 5 of them 20%+. I would say it is overwhelmingly likely that the 12% swing required will happen.
Re ‘Shy Tory’ - yes that is a factor, however we have somethign this year that I’ve rarely seen before, and that is shy Tories coming out and saying they are shy Tories
and won’t be voting for them this time.