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Controversial railway opinions (without a firm foundation in logic..)

yorksrob

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This is fantasy economics with huge costs both on Nationalisation and ongoing. Losing some money is not fine, though it can be a political choice.

You are right, it is not sustainable.

The UK tax burden is the highest it has been for 60 years. In macro terms there are no reductions to reverse.

The only way to get more tax revenue without tax rates going up is the grow the economy.

And why hasn't the economy been growing over the past few years.

Growth is generally driven by companies investing in their businesses.

Why aren't they investing ? - too many squirrelling their profits away to invest off shore, or pay to foreign shareholders instead perhaps.

British business seems to be little more than a buffet table for foreign multinationals.
 
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The Ham

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Just been thinking about the cost to provide public transport for free, per tax payer is likely to be a cost of about £1,000 per year, if not less (Compared with the current government spend per tax payer of £17,000).

£25bn (total cost of the railways) works out at less than £800 per tax payer, however there's already a chunk of that which is already being paid out by government.

Revenue for Stagecoach is circa £700 million, whilst First Group is circa £1bn, TfL is circa £5bn. If we assume something like £12bn for buses we'd not be far off, even allowing for a significant uplift in services.

25+12= 37

There's currently 37 million tax payers, so £37bn is £1,000 per tax payer.

As I said a chunk of that is already paid out for the railways anyway, likewise there's some subsidy of buses, so would be less than this.

That compares with an average car ownership cost of £3,600 per year (yes I know not all cars would be that costly - as I know how averages work).

Given 85% of the population lives in an urban settlement (definition of urban settlement is one with a population of 10,000 or more), so a significant number of people (with an increase in bus capacity) would be close to a bus route.

Part of the issue with buses is that as soon as you need to change buses, for a lot of people the frequency makes a change add a significant amount of time to their journey.

For those who could then travel by bus rather than car the extra taxes would be less than they would be paying for a car, by enough that even if they went from two cars to one car and they are both tax payers then the savings would be more that it would cost them.
 

317 forever

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I saw the posts reporting the problem with overcrowding on Cross Country.

What may be an idea is to split XC so that local shuttles are run where possible where not unduly short.

So, for example there would no longer be through trains from Reading to Newcastle, as such services would terminate at York. There would be an XC Reading-York shuttle and additional LNER trains between York and Newcastle.

This would streamline and simplify the TOCs, and for good measure reduce demand on overcrowded XC routes through some passengers who are put off travelling due to the need to change trains.
 

HSTEd

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This is peak modern railway thinking. Much easier to make the railway less appealing to passengers than actually invest and run a decent service...
The question is whether running a long, quite slow service is the best use of any resources that are provided to the railway.

I'd argue that "metro-isation" has proven enormously succesful repeatedly over the years. Simple timetables operated at the highest possible intensity have been shown to grow traffic over and over again.

Indeed the current overcrowding on XC is largely a result of this suceeding with the Operation Princess concept, even if it was cut back.
 

The Ham

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The question is whether running a long, quite slow service is the best use of any resources that are provided to the railway.

I'd argue that "metro-isation" has proven enormously succesful repeatedly over the years. Simple timetables operated at the highest possible intensity have been shown to grow traffic over and over again.

Indeed the current overcrowding on XC is largely a result of this suceeding with the Operation Princess concept, even if it was cut back.

Indeed, I do wonder if there's not a case for a rolling trail of running +1tph on route with low frequency to see if it generates enough extra passengers to justify it being kept.

For example, start with a list of routes where there's 1tph or 2tph and there's capacity to run more services (even if that's only to a large town to change to get to the major city) and starting with places with reasonable train loading trail for 18 months +1tph (or even +0.5tph).

The most likely to succeed are those which would run across a typical interchange station.

If it shows a decent level of passenger uplift (i.e. enough, or at least nearly enough, to justify the extra cost of running those services) then keep it, if not review to see why and either assist the trail or revert back to the old timetable.

Once you start getting to the point where the list is looking less likely to create services which would result in the services being maintained, then look at services with 3tph and 4tph and so the same again.

You might end up with some "odd" start/end points due to capacity issues.

For example (obviously subject to capacity) you could have a service running Andover to Farnborough or Basingstoke to Bracknell (as both would link services either side of a interchange station - Basingstoke and Reading).

As Andover to (nearly) Basingstoke is 2tph in each direction, so would be easy to path additional services (the tricky bit is the turning around), Basingstoke might be an issue (mostly heading westbound due to platform 1 being occupied far more than platform 4) but then the show lines up until Farnborough aren't that busy. Again finding a time to turn 1tph at Farnborough might be a little tricky.

Likewise, Basingstoke (platform 5) to Reading is likely to be fine other than the junction South of Reading (in time there might be a car for a platform 6 at Basingstoke, but that might not be needed for the trail). Through Reading might be tricky, as could through Wokingham. However, through to Bracknell should be fine, until you then look for a gap to reverse the service.

As it looks like there's no additional infrastructure required to turn the trains and so as long as the cost to run the trains is covered, the extra wear from the extra trains would likely be covered by the infrastructure charges (unlike a new line where there would be additional fixed costs in addition to the variable costs), so the cost of the subsidy to the government wouldn't change or may even go down slightly.

Yes, each such services are never going to materially change the cost to the government, however, if you could find 100 such services and they each make it that the cost of that infrastructure is covered by an extra 1 million passenger trips a year on each route which area an improvement then there could be enough of a change that it reduces the cost to the government (especially if it makes some longer distance travel more attractive as well - but reducing the risk of waiting a long time at an interchange location).

These examples might not be viable, however they're to illustrate the sort of options which could be looked at.
 

Magdalia

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And why hasn't the economy been growing over the past few years.

Growth is generally driven by companies investing in their businesses.

Why aren't they investing ? - too many squirrelling their profits away to invest off shore, or pay to foreign shareholders instead perhaps.

British business seems to be little more than a buffet table for foreign multinationals.
Part of the answer is global: the 2008 financial crash and the response to it.

But part is made in the UK. In particular the UK (like the US) had become dependent on running a large trade deficit (mainly in goods), which goes back to financial deregulation in the 1980s. The UK economy as a whole has been spending instead of saving for nearly 40 years. As a result the UK economy is up to its ears in debt and is heavily reliant on foreign investors who have the savings that UK consumers would rather spend on imports.

You are right that companies investing in their businesses drives growth. For established businesses that can be done from retained profit, but for growing businesses that requires external finance, either equity or debt. Those external funds mostly come from foreigners because they have the savings to invest. Foreign multinationals owning much of UK business and UK consumers spending on imported goods are two sides of the same coin. The UK has sold the family silver to feed its addiction to imported goods.

The UK economy is further hampered by supply side issues, most important of these are a very restrictive planning system and a badly managed labour market. In particular, these combine via the UK housing market to create a huge brake on economic growth by inhibiting job mobility. An important reason why the UK doesn't have decent economic growth is because it doesn't have the right people in the right places.

The result is public finances that struggle to raise the tax income to meet its obligations, including debt interest payments. That's why there is no money for fantasy schemes that increase the cost of the railway to taxpayers.
 

yorksrob

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Part of the answer is global: the 2008 financial crash and the response to it.

But part is made in the UK. In particular the UK (like the US) had become dependent on running a large trade deficit (mainly in goods), which goes back to financial deregulation in the 1980s. The UK economy as a whole has been spending instead of saving for nearly 40 years. As a result the UK economy is up to its ears in debt and is heavily reliant on foreign investors who have the savings that UK consumers would rather spend on imports.

I don't know what the answer is. I think we should have set up that sovereign wealth fund from North sea oil.

I try and avoid spending too much on imported goods and spend more on services based here.
 

physics34

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A complete ban on door alarms and chimes, 'see it say it sorted' and all other 'fluff' announcements.
 

ainsworth74

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A complete ban on door alarms and chimes, 'see it say it sorted' and all other 'fluff' announcements.
Door alarms and chimes do play a useful role, particularly for people who might have a visual impairment, but I do think that some of them are louder and more aggressive than they need to be in order to achieve the effect of warning of closing doors or prompting that doors are unlocked.
 

physics34

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Door alarms and chimes do play a useful role, particularly for people who might have a visual impairment, but I do think that some of them are louder and more aggressive than they need to be in order to achieve the effect of warning of closing doors or prompting that doors are unlocked.
I feel the constant sound of alarms and alerts has taken away the relaxing aspect of a railway journey.. as they are specifically there to 'ALERT' you. There has to be a better way. An alarm sounding for the whole time an automatic door is sliding open is overkill IMO
 

Zomboid

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I feel the constant sound of alarms and alerts has taken away the relaxing aspect of a railway journey.. as they are specifically there to 'ALERT' you. There has to be a better way. An alarm sounding for the whole time an automatic door is sliding open is overkill IMO
Might seem that way if you're fortunate enough to be able to see that the door is moving, but the alarm isn't there for your benefit in that case.
 

physics34

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Might seem that way if you're fortunate enough to be able to see that the door is moving, but the alarm isn't there for your benefit in that case.
Ive heard scenarios of VIPs becoming confused by the multitude of alarms and noises especially with 2 trains on adjacent platforms etc. They also make people panic to rush onto trains, and can affect people with autism. They are just too loud and go on for too long.
 

Zomboid

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Maybe some changes could be made (especially the waffle) and it's not necessarily the answer in every situation, but removing the door unlocked/ closing sounds will adversely impact at least as many people as it helps. How would your replace it?
 

DynamicSpirit

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Might seem that way if you're fortunate enough to be able to see that the door is moving, but the alarm isn't there for your benefit in that case.

If someone is not able to see that the door is moving, is it actually going to be possible for them to travel by train, without being assisted on and off in any case?
 

physics34

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If someone is not able to see that the door is moving, is it actually going to be possible for them to travel by train, without being assisted on and off in any case?
That's pretty much been my argument too. Should they be alone in a really dangerous environment if they can't see a door. I'd suggest a short bell noise.
 

Bletchleyite

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That's pretty much been my argument too. Should they be alone in a really dangerous environment if they can't see a door. I'd suggest a short bell noise.

Networkers and Turbos used to just have a (mechanical) bell.

I think it should be a different sound if the doors are closing on the timer vs closing and locking.
 

ainsworth74

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I feel the constant sound of alarms and alerts has taken away the relaxing aspect of a railway journey.. as they are specifically there to 'ALERT' you. There has to be a better way. An alarm sounding for the whole time an automatic door is sliding open is overkill IMO
Well as I say I think they have a role to play, I do think that at the moment too many of them are too loud, too harsh and go on for too long. So I'd have no issue with making them less intrusive but I think it would be unwise to dispose of them entirely.
 

MatthewHutton

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Just been thinking about the cost to provide public transport for free, per tax payer is likely to be a cost of about £1,000 per year, if not less (Compared with the current government spend per tax payer of £17,000).

£25bn (total cost of the railways) works out at less than £800 per tax payer, however there's already a chunk of that which is already being paid out by government.

Revenue for Stagecoach is circa £700 million, whilst First Group is circa £1bn, TfL is circa £5bn. If we assume something like £12bn for buses we'd not be far off, even allowing for a significant uplift in services.

25+12= 37

There's currently 37 million tax payers, so £37bn is £1,000 per tax payer.

As I said a chunk of that is already paid out for the railways anyway, likewise there's some subsidy of buses, so would be less than this.

That compares with an average car ownership cost of £3,600 per year (yes I know not all cars would be that costly - as I know how averages work).

Given 85% of the population lives in an urban settlement (definition of urban settlement is one with a population of 10,000 or more), so a significant number of people (with an increase in bus capacity) would be close to a bus route.

Part of the issue with buses is that as soon as you need to change buses, for a lot of people the frequency makes a change add a significant amount of time to their journey.

For those who could then travel by bus rather than car the extra taxes would be less than they would be paying for a car, by enough that even if they went from two cars to one car and they are both tax payers then the savings would be more that it would cost them.
Yeah but then you have no incentive to actually provide decent service.

The £2/3 cap on bus fares is a decent compromise.
 

renegademaster

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The thing about making railways completely free is that it removes any operational independence from treasury, leaves the railway at the mercy of the business cycle and risks another Beeching everytime there is a recession. If somewhat "paying it's way", even if it only pays it way through budgetary sleight of hand, is that it makes the political case for closures harder and stops the government using it as piggybank to raid every time it feels skint

had become dependent on running a large trade deficit (mainly in goods), which goes back to financial deregulation in the 1980s. The UK economy as a whole has been spending instead of saving for nearly 40 years. As a result the UK economy is up to its ears in debt and is heavily reliant on foreign investors who have the savings that UK consumers would rather spend on imports.
Any fantasy of Britain returning to a primarily industrial export economy will first of all need to find a way of making our energy significantly cheaper (which will clash with environmental goals), and make British workers purchasing power much less, so they can work for cheap again, which won't be popular. While we have goods defecit we have a service surplus. I don't think it would be a clever idea to copy Trump and make our population poorer on purpose so we can factories again like the "good ol days".
 
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Energy

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The question is whether running a long, quite slow service is the best use of any resources that are provided to the railway.

I'd argue that "metro-isation" has proven enormously succesful repeatedly over the years. Simple timetables operated at the highest possible intensity have been shown to grow traffic over and over again.

Indeed the current overcrowding on XC is largely a result of this suceeding with the Operation Princess concept, even if it was cut back.
XC's routes are fine, as shown by how popular they are. Their only flaw is that delays in other regions can spread across the network. The voyagers just really suffer from poor passenger capacity.

For example, a TPE class 802 has:
  • 24 First-class seats
  • 318 Standard-class seats
  • 342 total seats
Meanwhile, a 4-car class 220 only has:
  • 26 First-class seats
  • 174 Standard-class seats
  • 200 total seats
There's a decent argument to whether XC should focus on comfort with a lower density (e.g. Avanti class 805) layout, or a max capacity (e.g. Lumo class 803) layout.
 

The Ham

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Yeah but then you have no incentive to actually provide decent service.

The £2/3 cap on bus fares is a decent compromise.

The point about looking at the cost was I was surprised at actually how little it would cost if you split the cost across enough of the population

Of course the argument for keeping a decent service is that if people switched to driving then it would slow buses down, requiring more buses (at a greater cost) to maintain the service frequency. If you tried to cut frequencies, it would likely result in even higher costs as even more buses get stuck in congestion, slowing them down even more and resulting even even more people switching to cars, etc...

Whilst a free at the point of use system was what I had suggested, given how little it would be I did wonder if offering an annual pass costing (say) £1,000 (£84/month) for unlimited off peak use or £1,500 (£125/month) for unlimited any time use it might be a more practical option (other splitting the cost options could be considered - for example the price being based on only within 1 region £800, across two regions £900, across 3 regions, £950, across 4 regions £1,025, across 5+ regions £1,200 with an annual supplement of £300 for travel within the M25.

By setting a monthly charge then those from overseas would be able to pay to use public transport so fewer British people would have to pay to cover the total cost.

If the service is rubbish people will either stop paying or vote for a party who were going to improve the services.

If too few people payed for it, then it would cost the government more money, so it's in the government's interest to provide a decent public transport service.

For example, if the average is £1,000 if you get 1/3 getting off peak, 1/3 getting any time and 1/3 not getting either, it would cost the country £6.11bn (so actually less than is currently spent).

However make the service bad enough you only get 1/4 getting off peak, 1/4 getting peak and 2/4 not getting either then it'll cost the country £13.88bn.
 

Magdalia

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Any fantasy of Britain returning to a primarily industrial export economy will first of all need to find a way of making our energy significantly cheaper (which will clash with environmental goals), and make British workers purchasing power much less, so they can work for cheap again, which won't be popular. While we have goods defecit we have a service surplus. I don't think it would be a clever idea to copy Trump and make our population poorer on purpose so we can factories again like the "good ol days".
You are right that there will not be a return to export of traditional industrial goods, and that it would not be a clever idea to try to get back to the "good ol days".

As any trade economist will tell you the UK has to exploit its comparative advantages. Clean energy is one of those. Others include life sciences, tech, and culture. From my perspective here in the Fens, the UK having 2 of the top 10 universities in the world is definitely a comparative advantage that needs to be exploited in the 21st century digital and information economy.

Making energy cheaper doesn't need to clash with environmental goals. I'm not an expert on the arcane way that the UK energy market works (or doesn't work), but my impression is that the problem isn't that clean energy is expensive. The problem is that the marginal cost in the price setting mechanism is still usually set by the price of gas, because the "last unit of supply" is still gas too much of the time.
 

renegademaster

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Clean energy is one of those
That may be a moral advantage but I don't exactly understand how that is meant to bring foreign exchange in? We don't actually manafacture the renewables infrastructure we have a lot of, and with our high labour and energy costs we won't be any time soon.

We can nurture industries that aren't bothered by high energy costs, like you mentioned sciences, but that's easier said then done. Not kneecapping the financial services sector and a xenophobic chasing away FDI as if its a bad thing is another way.



The problem is that the marginal cost in the price setting mechanism is still usually set by the price of gas, because the "last unit of supply" is still gas too much of the time.
Dash for gas was done for partly for environmental reasons. The cheap and dirty option is coal.
 
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JamesT

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You are right that there will not be a return to export of traditional industrial goods, and that it would not be a clever idea to try to get back to the "good ol days".

As any trade economist will tell you the UK has to exploit its comparative advantages. Clean energy is one of those. Others include life sciences, tech, and culture. From my perspective here in the Fens, the UK having 2 of the top 10 universities in the world is definitely a comparative advantage that needs to be exploited in the 21st century digital and information economy.

Making energy cheaper doesn't need to clash with environmental goals. I'm not an expert on the arcane way that the UK energy market works (or doesn't work), but my impression is that the problem isn't that clean energy is expensive. The problem is that the marginal cost in the price setting mechanism is still usually set by the price of gas, because the "last unit of supply" is still gas too much of the time.
In what way do we have an advantage in clean energy? We don't produce any of the components.

One thing that often seems to be glossed over in the arguments over the marginal cost pricing is that it only applies to the spot market. Large chunks of our electricity is bought on long-term contracts where the price of gas is irrelevant. The main problem is we've added a huge amount of intermittent generation, but without the storage necessary to smooth it out so we end up having to pay twice to cover when it's not available.
 

Magdalia

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a xenophobic chasing away FDI as if its a bad thing is another way.
I agree, though I suspect that we may be in a minority here!

In what way do we have an advantage in clean energy?

That may be a moral advantage but I don't exactly understand how that is meant to bring foreign exchange in?
Our expert knowledge and experience. The UK probably has more knowhow on offshore wind than anywhere in the world.

Dash for gas was done for partly for environmental reasons. The cheap and dirty option is coal.
You are right that coal is dirtier than gas, but the problem with gas is that the price is set by global markets and is vulnerable to supply side shocks.
The main problem is we've added a huge amount of intermittent generation, but without the storage necessary to smooth it out so we end up having to pay twice to cover when it's not available.
I agree that so far the UK has not done anywhere near enough on storage.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Whilst a free at the point of use system was what I had suggested, given how little it would be I did wonder if offering an annual pass costing (say) £1,000 (£84/month) for unlimited off peak use or £1,500 (£125/month) for unlimited any time use it might be a more practical option (other splitting the cost options could be considered - for example the price being based on only within 1 region £800, across two regions £900, across 3 regions, £950, across 4 regions £1,025, across 5+ regions £1,200 with an annual supplement of £300 for travel within the M25.

That kind of system has the advantage of evening out the playing field with cars, where for a car you pay a massive upfront cost and then the marginal additional cost of each journey is so low that you get incentivised to drive even when buses and trains are perfectly adequate, or walking or cycling would be feasible.

The disadvantage is you're still disconnecting the price people pay from the actual cost of the resources used for each journey - which is always going to lead to economically inefficient decisions. Far better really to just charge people a reasonable price for each journey that reflects the cost of providing that transport, and also sort out a decent road pricing system for cars so that motorists also pay the appropriate marginal cost for each journey.
 

eldomtom2

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Door alarms and chimes do play a useful role, particularly for people who might have a visual impairment, but I do think that some of them are louder and more aggressive than they need to be in order to achieve the effect of warning of closing doors or prompting that doors are unlocked.
My controversial opinion is that we should introduce Japanese-style station melodies for the entire network. Each station could have its own jingle that reflected local history and culture.
 

Brubulus

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That kind of system has the advantage of evening out the playing field with cars, where for a car you pay a massive upfront cost and then the marginal additional cost of each journey is so low that you get incentivised to drive even when buses and trains are perfectly adequate, or walking or cycling would be feasible.

The disadvantage is you're still disconnecting the price people pay from the actual cost of the resources used for each journey - which is always going to lead to economically inefficient decisions. Far better really to just charge people a reasonable price for each journey that reflects the cost of providing that transport, and also sort out a decent road pricing system for cars so that motorists also pay the appropriate marginal cost for each journey.
The economically inefficient decision in question is overuse of public transport, which is a merit good and therefore should be encouraged. One of the main barriers to a reasonably priced subscription scheme is the potential for some amount of abuse if priced reasonably, therefore a good proposal would be to restrict the validity of a public transport subscription to 20 miles of one's residence. Beyond that a BahnCard style system could be used with an automatic 25% discount for having a public transport subscription while one would be able to purchase 50% and 100% discounts on all travel for a higher cost. The price would be dependent on public transport accessibility, with a surcharge if London Zone 1 is accessible. Combine this with road charging and since people focus far more on marginal costs than fixed costs, this will do a lot to promote usage.
 

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