Coronavirus precautions: Has the world gone mad?

[DB]

Having spoken to the landlord of my local pub today when collecting a takeaway, he advises that the guidelines they have are to keep the details for 21 days and dispose of them.
GDPR apparently does not apply for data held for less than 28 days.

That is nonsense - he's clearly been misinformed. Data protection legislation (in the UK, GDPR is implemented by the DPA 2018) applies to all personal data collected, immeditately from when it's collected. The time element only relates to retention - the retention period should be no longer than necessary, and for this purpose (given that the quarantine period is 14 days) I can see no reasonable justification for keeping it longer than that.

 

[talldave]

Having spoken to the landlord of my local pub today when collecting a takeaway, he advises that the guidelines they have are to keep the details for 21 days and dispose of them.
GDPR apparently does not apply for data held for less than 28 days.

Oh that'll be stacks of personal data in the rubbish bin then. Mr Mouse it is then!

 

[Bantamzen]

I came across another "world gone mad" situation yesterday in my home here in Baildon. Walking back from the Co-op there I noticed that on one road leading away from the village centre there were painted arrows on the pavement that have only appeared in the last week (they definitely were not there last weekend). I initially chuckled to myself, thinking that they must have been painted on by some over zealous resident. However a little further along I discovered that half of the road was blocked off one one side where there is no pavement, in order to enforce the one way system that I now presume has been set up by the local Parish Council. All of this might make a bit of sense if it was in a busy area, but in the decade I've lived here I have never passed more than one or two people along this stretch of road at any time, which is not surprising as Baildon sits on a steep side of the Aire Valley, so most people tend to drive or get a bus / taxi into it. So someone has had a jolly time dreaming up this "solution" and brought it into effect 3 months after the lockdown started, and after the government announced easements on it. Still, if it makes them feel important...

 

[island]

Having spoken to the landlord of my local pub today when collecting a takeaway, he advises that the guidelines they have are to keep the details for 21 days and dispose of them.
GDPR apparently does not apply for data held for less than 28 days.

Keeping names and contact details for up to 21 days seems proportionate to me. I know there is a 14 day period associated with the virus, but I would not (for example) expect a small business such as a pub to have a rigorous procedure to shred each day’s sheets exactly 14 days on. Doing a week or two in one go would not offend data protection requirements. And it’s worth noting that if your filing is arranged by “day somebody visited” it may not even be a ”relevant filing system” under the DPA 2018.

The bit about the GDPR not applying to data held for under 28 days is bunkum though.

 

[kylemore]

Oh that'll be stacks of personal data in the rubbish bin then. Mr Mouse it is then!

Marston's have the correct approach - leave a pen and paper on the bar for anyone silly enough who want's to go along with the nonsense - mind you they will probably be horrified at having to use a communal pen, better have a wee bottle of sanitiser next to the pen and paper.

 

[talldave]

Marston's have the correct approach - leave a pen and paper on the bar for anyone silly enough who want's to go along with the nonsense - mind you they will probably be horrified at having to use a communal pen, better have a wee bottle of sanitiser next to the pen and paper.

Thinking about it, I think a campaign to ensure everyone puts Dominic Cummings is in order .

 

[jumble]

Hence all the nonsense on trains mentioned above as well as the jobsworths on shop doors,

He

I was particularly amused to turn up at our Local Poundland on Friday and have the door controlled by a nice young man
He however was not much amused when I suggested that if he went on the tills then the queue of 5 or so and one person serving would clear more quickly and mean that there would be no need for his customers to have to queue outside
( to be fair this is no doubt some silly head office policy)

 

[Jonny]

My view is that when you add care home fatalities, you increase the level of fear and/or guilt trip. People forget that the responsibility for care homes lies with their management and staff, who are in a unique position to do something about it. This came from Scotland/Wales, and England was effectively forced to follow suit. The fatality figures are now close to meaningless; if you are not a care home case then your risk is much lower. This is what is driving the behaviour; as the fear has stopped working on most people they are now going for the guilt (so-called) trip. The media are using this to promote irrational behaviour.

 

[Class 33]

Deaths today is 36. Isn't this exactly the same as this time next week? I was expecting it to be a fair bit lower than that today. Hmmm.... let's see what the figures are like tomorrow, as last week it was only 15. I like millions of other in this country are hoping like mad that we finally get a day of ZERO deaths as soon as possible.

Whilst in Scotland alone, there have been ZERO deaths for the third consecutive day in a row. Which is excellent news for those up in Scotland.

 

[Djgr]

Deaths today is 36. Isn't this exactly the same as this time next week? I was expecting it to be a fair bit lower than that today. Hmmm.... let's see what the figures are like tomorrow, as last week it was only 15. I like millions of other in this country are hoping like mad that we finally get a day of ZERO deaths as soon as possible.

Whilst in Scotland alone, there have been ZERO deaths for the third consecutive day in a row. Which is excellent news for those up in Scotland.

We will never get zero deaths. We will never get zero cases.

Do not focus on single daily figures as there is too much noise in the data. Look at the 7 day rolling average to observe the trend. I recommend this website.

Free to read: Coronavirus tracked: has the epidemic peaked near you?

Find any country or US state in the live-updating and customisable version of the FT’s Covid-19 trajectory graphs

ig.ft.com

 

[DB]

We will never get zero deaths. We will never get zero cases.

Quite. This does rather highlight the completely unrealistic expectations which seem to have evolved (and which are driving the over-the-top measures) - many people seem to see it as something which can be eradicated in a relatively short timescale. That simply won't happen. Only two formerly widespread viral diseases - Smallpox (human) and Rinderpest (cattle)- have ever been eradicated, and in both cases this was only a considerable time after the first vaccines for them appeared. Without a vaccine Covid will not be eradicated, and even with one it could take years, if it happens at all. Ordinary life cannot be put on hold indefinitely in the hope that this might happen eventually.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

People who argue in favour of prolonged extension of state control restrictions on normal life really need to get some sense of perspective, and inform themselves about the numbers that the media and government put out.
Whilst 100+ deaths with Covid19 on a daily basis is bad, according to the cancer charity Macmillan, every year, over 164,000 people in the UK die from cancer. That’s almost 450 per day. Every day. Every year.

https://www.macmillan.org.uk/_images/cancer-statistics-factsheet_tcm9-260514.pdf

If routine screenings for all sorts of cancers continue to be delayed, paused or abandoned due to the sole focus on coronavirus, the numbers who die prematurely from cancer will be much much higher than in the past

 

[Scrotnig]

People who argue in favour of prolonged extension of state control restrictions on normal life really need to get some sense of perspective, and inform themselves about the numbers that the media and government put out.
Whilst 100+ deaths with Covid19 on a daily basis is bad, according to the cancer charity Macmillan, every year, over 164,000 people in the UK die from cancer. That’s almost 450 per day. Every day. Every year.

If routine screenings for all sorts of cancers continue to be delayed, paused or abandoned due to the sole focus on coronavirus, the numbers who die prematurely from cancer will be much much higher than in the past

The problem is, absolutely nobody seems to care about things like this, because it's not the DEADLY KILLER VIRUS.

 

[Smidster]

Deaths today is 36. Isn't this exactly the same as this time next week? I was expecting it to be a fair bit lower than that today. Hmmm.... let's see what the figures are like tomorrow, as last week it was only 15. I like millions of other in this country are hoping like mad that we finally get a day of ZERO deaths as soon as possible.

Whilst in Scotland alone, there have been ZERO deaths for the third consecutive day in a row. Which is excellent news for those up in Scotland.

I strongly agree , as a statistician, that you really shouldn't focus on the death data. Firstly it is an indication of cases several weeks ago rather than the status today. As well as the weekend effect the daily report can also include deaths that occurred some time ago but are newly reported.

Definitely look at the 7 day average, which strips out the reporting effect, but also look at the testing data - obviously more tests generally mean more positive results so the proportion of tests that are positive is a good metric.

The dashboard on gov.uk has just been redesigned and is good.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The dashboard on gov.uk has just been redesigned and is good.

Yes, agreed, it is quite fancy. The old one was a bit rubbish. It doesn't have proportion of positive tests, though, perhaps that needs adding.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

But how are we to know if the virus has mutated into a ‘less deadly than previously’ strain, as some doctors in Italy are saying? Those dying yesterday presumably tested positive some days or weeks earlier. If the numbers dying now are n percentage of those testing positive several weeks ago, wouldn’t it be an idea to do that calculation on a daily basis, too?

 

[Bayum]

We will never get zero deaths. We will never get zero cases.

Do not focus on single daily figures as there is too much noise in the data. Look at the 7 day rolling average to observe the trend. I recommend this website.

Free to read: Coronavirus tracked: has the epidemic peaked near you?

Find any country or US state in the live-updating and customisable version of the FT’s Covid-19 trajectory graphs

ig.ft.com

Now that the deaths are coming down, I'm more interested in the numbers of people being diagnosed with COVID. As we get have moved through this, doctors and nurses have gotten used to the fact that these patients in hospitals are likely to have SARS, cytokine storms, secondary pneumonia and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) like features. They know how to treat these now. The number of deaths will reduce, but the numbers diagnosed as positive for COVID will say how many are ill in the community. That's not to say I don't care about the deaths, it's just not the thing I'm focussing on at this moment.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Now that the deaths are coming down, I'm more interested in the numbers of people being diagnosed with COVID. As we get have moved through this, doctors and nurses have gotten used to the fact that these patients in hospitals are likely to have SARS, cytokine storms, secondary pneumonia and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) like features. They know how to treat these now. The number of deaths will reduce, but the numbers diagnosed as positive for COVID will say how many are ill in the community. That's not to say I don't care about the deaths, it's just not the thing I'm focussing on at this moment.

The deaths (and long-term issues[1]) are crucial, though. If the death rate of COVID (i.e. the number of deaths per number of cases) gets lower than seasonal flu, there is no reason to continue with any social distancing at all, as we don't lock down every year for that. There could be 100,000 cases per day, but if they were just like common colds, who cares?

[1] To some extent. I have post-viral asthma. Nobody locked down for that, nor should they. It's just one of those things.

 

[Bayum]

The deaths (and long-term issues[1]) are crucial, though. If the death rate of COVID (i.e. the number of deaths per number of cases) gets lower than seasonal flu, there is no reason to continue with any social distancing at all, as we don't lock down every year for that. There could be 100,000 cases per day, but if they were just like common colds, who cares?

[1] To some extent. I have post-viral asthma. Nobody locked down for that, nor should they. It's just one of those things.

But for me and my knowledge of whether I’m safe, even with social distancing, the number infected is a better reflection of that than the death rate.

 

[al78]

People who argue in favour of prolonged extension of state control restrictions on normal life really need to get some sense of perspective, and inform themselves about the numbers that the media and government put out.
Whilst 100+ deaths with Covid19 on a daily basis is bad, according to the cancer charity Macmillan, every year, over 164,000 people in the UK die from cancer. That’s almost 450 per day. Every day. Every year.

If routine screenings for all sorts of cancers continue to be delayed, paused or abandoned due to the sole focus on coronavirus, the numbers who die prematurely from cancer will be much much higher than in the past

Whilst I agree with the idea that extending lockdown now is over the top and ignoring the side effects is very bad, this argument is fallacious for two reasons:

1. Cancer deaths, amongst others, are part of the annual normal which the health service can cope with, and COVID causes significant extra deaths on top of this. It is like saying that five degrees of global warming isn't significant because temperatures in the UK vary much more than that over the year. The initial fear was that the NHS would be overwhelmed, but now it seems this has not happened and it is doubtful it came anywhere near to being overwhelmed.

2. Cancer and a lot of other causes of mortality aren't highly contageous, and don't propagate exponentially if left unchecked. Other diseases which are contageous have vaccines, COVID doesn't, so we currently have little to avoid exponential propagation, other than socially isolating, whilst the virus was in its growth stage a few months ago.

If you want to appreciate how powerful exponential growth can be, consider putting a grain of rice on the top left corner of a chessboard, then going through each square putting double the number of grains of rice each time, and work out how much rice you would need for the 64th square.

The initial point of the COVID measures is to try and nip it in the bud before any exponential growth is able to cripple the health service. This is a better strategy than blindly hoping for the best, then saying ooops it's gone tits up what do we do now, which normally seems to be the favourite irrational human way of doing things.

 

[Journeyman]

The problem is, absolutely nobody seems to care about things like this, because it's not the DEADLY KILLER VIRUS.

Absolutely. Remember a few months ago it was ecological disaster that was going to kill us all? Now we're putting plastic screens up everywhere, dousing everything in industrial quantities of disinfectant and dumping used gloves and masks all over the place.

People are idiots.

To put it all in perspective, under normal circumstances, at least 1400 people in the UK die every single day. People tend to forget that.

 

[talldave]

Absolutely. Remember a few months ago it was ecological disaster that was going to kill us all? Now we're putting plastic screens up everywhere, dousing everything in industrial quantities of disinfectant and dumping used gloves and masks all over the place.

People are idiots.

To put it all in perspective, under normal circumstances, at least 1400 people in the UK die every single day. People tend to forget that.

Very much agree that coronaphobia has shown just how many idiots we have in society. Deaths per day average about 1700.

 

[DB]

The initial point of the COVID measures is to try and nip it in the bud before any exponential growth is able to cripple the health service. This is a better strategy than blindly hoping for the best, then saying ooops it's gone tits up what do we do now, which normally seems to be the favourite irrational human way of doing things.

That was certainly the stated plan, but clearly didn't work - they started it too late to prevent it spreading widely, and even then all these emergency hospitals set up had few or no patients.

 

[takno]

If you want to appreciate how powerful exponential growth can be, consider putting a grain of rice on the top left corner of a chessboard, then going through each square putting double the number of grains of rice each time, and work out how much rice you would need for the 64th square.

The exponential growth in illustrations of exponential growth is becoming exponentially more irritating every time I read it tbh. It's usually attached to a naive model based on a simple R number which was being thrown around in early May, and which has increasingly proved not to fit what the disease is actually doing anywhere.

 

[seaviewer]

I strongly agree , as a statistician, that you really shouldn't focus on the death data. Firstly it is an indication of cases several weeks ago rather than the status today. As well as the weekend effect the daily report can also include deaths that occurred some time ago but are newly reported.

Definitely look at the 7 day average, which strips out the reporting effect, but also look at the testing data - obviously more tests generally mean more positive results so the proportion of tests that are positive is a good metric.

The dashboard on gov.uk has just been redesigned and is good.

I had a look at the stats yesterday. The 7-day rolling average for cases is falling, but for deaths it has flatlined. In "per million" terms only Sweden and USA are worse. That concerns me a bit.

 

[Bishopstone]

I had a look at the stats yesterday. The 7-day rolling average for cases is falling, but for deaths it has flatlined. In "per million" terms only Sweden and USA are worse. That concerns me a bit.

The tail of the virus is indeed long and ‘sticky’. What we’re not hearing anymore, in the UK, is those horror stories from April of otherwise fairly healthy 30-somethings becoming very ill and needing ICU treatment. Is that because the media have moved on, or is the tail concentrated almost entirely in the very elderly, and those with co-morbidities who remain in hospital for reasons unrelated to Covid, despite testing positive along the way?

The figure I watch most closely is that for new hospitalisations, where there is also a disappointing stickiness around the 350-500 per day level, though it’s not taking-off.

 

[Enthusiast]

If you want to appreciate how powerful exponential growth can be, consider putting a grain of rice on the top left corner of a chessboard, then going through each square putting double the number of grains of rice each time, and work out how much rice you would need for the 64th square.

Except that exponential growth in disease does not quite work like that. If it did the entire global population would have been infected by now and clearly it hasn't. In fact reported cases worldwide number 1 in 700 (0.014%) of the population. The number of reported deaths is 1 in 15,000 (0.007%). In the UK those numbers are a bit over 1 in 200 (0.47%) and 1 in 1,400 (0.066%). It is estimated that around 1 in 2,000 people in the UK have the virus at any given time so your chances of encountering such a person at all are very slim. The chances of you contracting it by passing closely (currently defined as less than than 2m) to such a person in the street are incredibly slim, making your overall chance of a "close" encounter leading to you catching the virus very incredibly slim (that is, very multiplied by incredibly). Yet to counter this massive threat Local Authorities are narrowing roads to provide extra pavement space and, in at least one case reported on here, closing vehicle carriageways entirely. The country needs to get a grip.

 

[talldave]

And all the mask wearing on trains is meant to protect against the one infected person that the laws of probability show isn't on the train at all?

The figures for buses are even more astounding - London buses carry 20 passengers. So that's 105 journeys until you get on a bus where one person is infected. Oh hang on the buses are mostly empty, so let's be generous and say every bus is half full, so 9 other people on there, making 220 journeys to find that infected person. Say there are two seats close enough to put you in danger, that's 2200 bus journeys just to get near an infected person.....

 

[birchesgreen]

Yes but statistics like the above are a little misleading. The virus isn't spread evenly across the population. It might be 1 in 2000 overall but maybe in your little bit of the UK it could be 1 in 500 or less.

 

[Richard Scott]

Yes but statistics like the above are a little misleading. The virus isn't spread evenly across the population. It might be 1 in 2000 overall but maybe in your little bit of the UK it could be 1 in 500 or less.

So only around 500 bus journeys needed then?