Coronavirus precautions: Has the world gone mad?

[Busaholic]

I don't agree!

The figures and the gradual decrease in cases and deaths suggests they are taking the right course of action. Nothing done so far has pushed the R figure (for what its worth) back up to 1.0

Cases are on the decline, deaths are on the decline, cases which lead to death are also much much lower than they were at the start of this.

They've tried to open schools but (mainly lefty) councils have blocked this from happening, they've allowed meetings, outdoors singularly, then in groups of six, now we have "bubbles"......as for the economy, tried to get people back to work, now trying to open shops and businesses on a staggered scale.

Quite how anyone can say they are doing nothing is beyond me.

And there are still plenty out there who think we are moving too fast! Plenty who would be happy to be "furloughed" forever, with their kids off school so they can go to the beach or the shopping centres as many times as they want!

The 'R' figure established by Public Health England in conjunction with the University of Cambridge is currently 1.01 for NW England and 1.00 for SW England. Education authorities like Tameside and Weston-super-Mare are taking account of local circumstances, and to suggest either is a bastion of socialism could not be further from the truth. In any case, the number of schools under the (notional) control of local authorities is now lower than at any time since the Second World War.

 

[Richard Scott]

The 'R' figure established by Public Health England in conjunction with the University of Cambridge is currently 1.01 for NW England and 1.00 for SW England. Education authorities like Tameside and Weston-super-Mare are taking account of local circumstances, and to suggest either is a bastion of socialism could not be further from the truth. In any case, the number of schools under the (notional) control of local authorities is now lower than at any time since the Second World War.

But what are actual numbers? If there was one person infected and they pass it onto someone else, now two people are infected and R is 1. If 1000 people have it and infect 100 others R is 0.1 so useful to know starting point and not just quote a number. As always can say what you want with statistics.

 

[Silverlinky]

As per Richard Scotts post, the R figure is misleading and too much emphasis is being put on this mystical figure.

at the height of the pandemic in this country it was thought that as many as 250000 were carrying the virus at any one time. If they all infected one other person there would be 250000 more people carrying the virus and an R of 1.

Today there are estimated to be no more than 30000 carriers at any one time, so an R figure of 1 says they infect 30000 others.

Now my maths is not brilliant but even I know that an R rate of 1.0 today is not the same as an R rate of 1.0 was in the middle of April, despite the main figure being the same.

 

[NorthOxonian]

As per Richard Scotts post, the R figure is misleading and too much emphasis is being put on this mystical figure.

at the height of the pandemic in this country it was thought that as many as 250000 were carrying the virus at any one time. If they all infected one other person there would be 250000 more people carrying the virus and an R of 1.

Today there are estimated to be no more than 30000 carriers at any one time, so an R figure of 1 says they infect 30000 others.

Now my maths is not brilliant but even I know that an R rate of 1.0 today is not the same as an R rate of 1.0 was in the middle of April, despite the main figure being the same.

The main danger of the R rate is that you see an exponential growth if it's above 1. An R of 1.1 might not be much of a growth in cases, but if it's at that level for weeks on end you'll see cases snowballing out of control. So yes, an R of 1.1 with 30,000 cases is better than an R of 0.9 with 250,000 cases, but you still need to be careful.

 

[Djgr]

The 'R' figure established by Public Health England in conjunction with the University of Cambridge is currently 1.01 for NW England and 1.00 for SW England. Education authorities like Tameside and Weston-super-Mare are taking account of local circumstances, and to suggest either is a bastion of socialism could not be further from the truth. In any case, the number of schools under the (notional) control of local authorities is now lower than at any time since the Second World War.

Those R figures you quote are out of date and have been superseded with different lower ones, certainly for North West England.

As has been said elsewhere, as the number of cases plummets the R figure can be quite dangerous as the small sample sizes can lead to wild erratic movements in the estimated number.

 

[duncanp]

I'm truly lost for words. Waterstones quarantining books is one thing, but this is quite another!

I went to Waterstones in Birmingham this morning. There was no queue to get in (unlike Primark next door) and there was a hand sanitiser station near the entrance, but with no compulsion to use it.

I handled several books before buying the ones that I wanted, and there was no attempt to "quarantine" the ones that I put back on the shelf. I think the staff on the ground have realised that it is completely impractical to do this for every book that a customer has handled. So the book quarantine policy sounds like another scheme dreamt up by someone in an office, who never works in a shop and doesn't realise what it is like on the ground.

When I came to pay, the person serving asked if I minded him handling the books, and I said that I didn't.

So all in all, shopping at Waterstones was a pleasant experience.

The streets were noticeably busier than last week, and a lot of coffee shops and cafes were open for takeaway only, to service the customers who are now out shopping.

Now for crying out loud Boris get a b****y move on and allow cafes, restaurants and bars to open, so that people out shopping can enjoy the experience, rather than have a takeaway coffee and then wonder where the nearest open loo is.

Incidentally, there was no attempt to enforce the face mask rule on the two buses that I used, (although I myself was wearing a mask) but on the tram the conductor gently reminded those who were not wearing one that they should, along with an offer of spare masks if people didn't have one of their own.

 

[duncanp]

Is it just me, or is 'safe' rapidly becoming the most pernicious, wretched word in the language? I'm having to resist the urge to groan (or worse) every time someone says it now.

It is not just you.

Whenever someone says "Stay safe" to me it just gets on my nerves.

 

[Mag_seven]

I handled several books before buying the ones that I wanted, and there was no attempt to "quarantine" the ones that I put back on the shelf. I think the staff on the ground have realised that it is completely impractical to do this for every book that a customer has handled.

Good to hear - provided people are sensible and wash /sanitise their hands regularly there should be no need for such quarantining measures.

 

[adc82140]

It is not just you.

Whenever someone says "Stay safe" to me it just gets on my nerves.

Next time someone says that to me, I may respond with "OK, perhaps I won't sit in the middle of the ring road tonight"

 

[ashkeba]

Next time someone says that to me, I may respond with "OK, perhaps I won't sit in the middle of the ring road tonight"

Surely the city centre is the middle of the ring road? I sit here most nights!

 

[Enthusiast]

And there are still plenty out there who think we are moving too fast! Plenty who would be happy to be "furloughed" forever, with their kids off school so they can go to the beach or the shopping centres as many times as they want!

And that is what the government needs to scotch asap. They need to get people back to work and pupils back to school. The easiest way to concentrate people's minds is to end the furlough scheme as quickly as possible.

The 'R' figure established by Public Health England in conjunction with the University of Cambridge is currently 1.01 for NW England and 1.00 for SW England.

The "R" figure depends on knowing how many people have or have had the virus and how many new infections there are. Since neither of these is known, not only with any degree of certainty but not even with a best guess, then the "R" figure is a fanciful guestimate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Next time someone says that to me, I may respond with "OK, perhaps I won't sit in the middle of the ring road tonight"

I dislike it too and get very tempted to answer with "no, I think I'll go and play in the middle of the M1 tonight".

 

[sheff1]

Is it just me, or is 'safe' rapidly becoming the most pernicious, wretched word in the language? I'm having to resist the urge to groan (or worse) every time someone says it now.

No it is not just you. There are signs and announcements all over the place telling me that if I keep 2m from everyone else I will be "safe". Complete nonsense of course.

 

[sheff1]

As per Richard Scotts post, the R figure is misleading and too much emphasis is being put on this mystical figure.

Even the government admit as much, although it is rather hidden away - I only found it by chance. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#limitations-of-r
"As the epidemic progresses and numbers of cases decrease, R becomes a less helpful indicator and other measures need to be considered. These include the number of new cases of the disease identified during a specified time period (incidence), and the proportion of the population with the disease at a given point in time (prevalence), and these will become more important.

In the future, SAGE will move away from publishing R estimates as they become less informative and move towards publishing more appropriate measures. From next week, growth rates will be published weekly."

 

[Bantamzen]

I dislike it too and get very tempted to answer with "no, I think I'll go and play in the middle of the M1 tonight".

Do you remember what I said in another thread about subliminal messaging.....??

Stay safe....

 

[adc82140]

In the future, SAGE will move away from publishing R estimates as they become less informative and move towards publishing more appropriate measures. From next week, growth rates will be published weekly."[/I]

What on earth will Sky News fill their Friday output with? They may have to resort to reporting some facts.

 

[al78]

And that is what the government needs to scotch asap. They need to get people back to work and pupils back to school. The easiest way to concentrate people's minds is to end the furlough scheme as quickly as possible.

It will end at some point, because there is not an infinite supply of money for the government to tap into, and the economic crash has reduced tax income.

It is inevitable that some will abuse the system, that doesn't mean everyone is.

 

[nlogax]

In the future, SAGE will move away from publishing R estimates as they become less informative and move towards publishing more appropriate measures. From next week, growth rates will be published weekly."

This was always going to happen. R rates and death rates will become the background noise (still essential but not our primary focus) that I think we all need them to become if we're going to reclaim our lives as much as we can.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With regard to the furlough scheme, I would suggest it should become more targeted. End it for cases where people can work. Retain it as-is for those who are extremely medically vulnerable i.e. shielding. Have a variant for industries that can't open at all or fully yet, e.g. pubs, which might include support for the business for the missing customers too.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

More madness I've noticed over the past few days;

Northern have gone to great lengths to tape off 3/4 of their seats on platforms with stern "out of use" signs. The daft thing is that they've done this at UNSTAFFED stations such as Woodlesford or Castleford so, if there's no one there to enforce it, what's the point?​

​

My local council (Barnsley) have in our local shopping streets fixed signs to just about every lamppost with warnings along the lines of "Is your shopping trip really essential?", "Keep your distance, stay safe", etc. Do they really think there's a single person left in the UK who hasn't been bombarded to death with all this nonsense already?​

​

Daftest of all, I missed a bus in Sheffield last night because the council have rerouted buses away from the main shopping streets to "maintain social distancing". Buses now go along Arundel Gate and bypass the main shopping area completely!​

When will this madness end?

 

[Bantamzen]

More madness I've noticed over the part few days;

Northern have gone to great lengths to tape off 3/4 of their seats on platforms with stern "out of use" signs. The daft thing is that they've doine this at UNSTAFFED stations such as Woodlesford or Castleford so, if there's no one there to enforce it, what's the point?​

​

My local council (Barnsley) have in our local shopping streets fixed signs to just about every lamppost with warnings along the lines of "Is your shopping trip really essential?", "Keep your distance, stay safe", etc. Do they really think there's a single person left in the UK who hasn't been bombarded to death with all this nonsense already?​

​

Daftest of all, I missed a bus in Sheffield last night because the council have rerouted buses away from the main shopping streets to "maintain social distancing". Buses now go along Arundel Gate and bypass the main shopping area completely!​

When will this madness end?

Council bosses & committees love this sort of thing, nay they practically live for it. New regs you say? There's a whole load of red tape we can invent for that....

 

[Huntergreed]

More madness I've noticed over the part few days;

Northern have gone to great lengths to tape off 3/4 of their seats on platforms with stern "out of use" signs. The daft thing is that they've doine this at UNSTAFFED stations such as Woodlesford or Castleford so, if there's no one there to enforce it, what's the point?​

​

My local council (Barnsley) have in our local shopping streets fixed signs to just about every lamppost with warnings along the lines of "Is your shopping trip really essential?", "Keep your distance, stay safe", etc. Do they really think there's a single person left in the UK who hasn't been bombarded to death with all this nonsense already?​

​

Daftest of all, I missed a bus in Sheffield last night because the council have rerouted buses away from the main shopping streets to "maintain social distancing". Buses now go along Arundel Gate and bypass the main shopping area completely!​

When will this madness end?

Welcome to the 'new normal'. Until the government realise this isn't going to work, it seems this is how they're planning to run society for a good while yet.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The only way to show this madness in it’s true light is by parody.

It appears that the BBC was right when it recently appeared to warn that the coronavirus can be spread by footwear.

The British Prime Minister’s team of scientific advisors, known as the Ministerial Intelligence and Notification Team (or MINT for short) has warned that this new threat must be taken seriously if the world is to be saved and drug company profits are to be maximised.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial Mints and the Bill Gates Foundation for Jabbing Scared People with Chemicals has warned that if nothing is done then 300 million Britons will need to be hospitalised and at least 370 million of them will die.

When a journalist timidly pointed out that there aren’t that many people in Britain, Professor Ferguson, known to his fan club as the Eddie the Eagle of mathematical modelling, replied that as a result of foot transmission he is expecting a second, third and fourth wave of the infection which will repeatedly wipe out 150% of the entire population.

 

[stevetay3]

Royal Ascot starts today without the Royals, without a crowd, how can this be right. Racing is just back for the benefit of the bookies.

 

[Bikeman78]

Council bosses & committees love this sort of thing, nay they practically live for it. New regs you say? There's a whole load of red tape we can invent for that....

Isn't it strange that they have money for all this nonsense but not for road repairs or cleaning out drains? I've been nagging Cardiff Council for nearly a year about various defects and blocked drains in my area.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

More madness I've noticed over the past few days;

Northern have gone to great lengths to tape off 3/4 of their seats on platforms with stern "out of use" signs. The daft thing is that they've done this at UNSTAFFED stations such as Woodlesford or Castleford so, if there's no one there to enforce it, what's the point?​

​

My local council (Barnsley) have in our local shopping streets fixed signs to just about every lamppost with warnings along the lines of "Is your shopping trip really essential?", "Keep your distance, stay safe", etc. Do they really think there's a single person left in the UK who hasn't been bombarded to death with all this nonsense already?​

​

Daftest of all, I missed a bus in Sheffield last night because the council have rerouted buses away from the main shopping streets to "maintain social distancing". Buses now go along Arundel Gate and bypass the main shopping area completely!​

When will this madness end?

It won't. EVER.
The genie is out of the bottle. Pandora's box has been opened. The inner park keeper of old (keep off the grass or else) has been unleashed in so many, and they are relishing their new found 'power'.

However, once so many of them have been made redundant, or their business collapses due to lack of customers or unpaid bills for goods supplied etc, then a measure of safety fascism retreat will occur, eg 50% capacity on buses instead of 25%.

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

Royal Ascot starts today without the Royals, without a crowd, how can this be right. Racing is just back for the benefit of the bookies.

And for the benefit of the thousands who work in the industry, stables, trainers, transporters etc. Not to mention many others who enjoy watching it live on TV. I have no interest in it at all, but also believe in letting others live as they choose where possible. Horse racing fans probably would not understand the attraction of railways, but we all have different things we enjoy. Live and let live.

 

[Bantamzen]

The only way to show this madness in it’s true light is by parody.

Not sure about all this. Hopping doesn't seem the way to go, I'm sure some other form of walking could be just as effective. Wasn't there once a Ministry for just this purpose....?

Royal Ascot starts today without the Royals, without a crowd, how can this be right. Racing is just back for the benefit of the bookies.

Erm...

 

[duncanp]

It appears that the BBC was right when it recently appeared to warn that the coronavirus can be spread by footwear.

The virus can also be spread by breathing, so perhaps we should ban that too

Does anyone remember the episode of Yes Minister called The Compassionate Society, which featured a brand new hospital that had no patients. No that could never happen in real life, could it?

 

[seaviewer]

there are various references in these posts to "seats taped off". Does anyone know what Southern are doing and whether there are any measures to control the number of prospective passengers?
As far as I can see from my (allowed) daily exercise every train travelling eastwards from Brighton is almost completely empty.