Britain must start “intense preparations” for a second wave of coronavirus that has the potential to kill as many as 120,000 hospital patients in a worst case scenario, experts have warned.
Senior doctors and scientists convened by the Academy of Medical Sciences said on Tuesday that, without urgent action, a resurgence of cases this winter could overwhelm the
NHS when services are already stretched because of flu and other seasonal pressures.
The experts were commissioned by Sir
Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, to model a “reasonable worst case scenario” for Covid-19 this winter. Their report, which has been shared with ministers and local health authorities, calls for immediate efforts to prepare for a second wave.
Compiled by 37 experts, the report stresses the worst case scenario is not a prediction of what is likely to happen, but a description of how the outbreak may evolve if infections are allowed to surge and little is done to prepare the NHS and social care services.
“The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately,” said Stephen Holgate, chair of the expert group and professor of immunopharmacology at the University of Southampton.
“With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”
The virus may bounce back in the winter as the weather and dark evenings force people to spend more time indoors. In the summer, it is easier to keep homes and offices ventilated with open windows which allow breezes to replenish stale air.
The reasonable worst case scenario assumes that the R value, the average number of people an infected person passes the disease on to, roughly doubles from around 0.9 in England today to 1.7 across the UK in September.
The modelling suggests hospital admissions and deaths would peak in January and February 2021 with a
similar number of deaths as in the first wave.
The modelling excludes deaths in care homes and the community, assumes no government intervention to prevent transmission, and does not factor in the use of dexamethasone, a drug recently shown to save lives in intensive care units.