"How many people will fall ill with COVID19 cannot be predicted", says Dr. Niki Popper (Institute for Information Systems Engineering, Vienna University of Technology). "However, it is important to slow down the course of the epidemic so that not too many people need intensive care at the same time. The goal is to have as flat a course as possible with as low a peak as possible before the numbers start to decline again. In a milder epidemic, which lasts longer, usually far fewer people die than in a severe outbreak, which is over more quickly".
This is exactly why it is important to pay attention to hygiene and to avoid unnecessary contact, especially if you belong to the risk group. "Even with very simple calculation models we can show If you reduce the number of contacts by only 25%, the height of the peak drops to 58%; if you reduce it by 50%, the peak drops to less than 30%," reports Martin Bicher, who helped develop the model.
However, contact is not equal to contact: The computer model can also calculate different contact networks for different people. If, for example, high-risk patients and emergency services are particularly well protected, this is particularly useful. Current simulation results show that the peak of the disease can be reduced even more.
