Could we see direct services from Marylebone towards Milton Keynes?

[Railguy1]

Moderator note: Split from

Chiltern Railways officially announced as EWR service operator

https://press.chilternrailways.co.uk/news/east-west-rail-services-planned-to-begin-this-year-as-chiltern-railways-named-operator 25 Mar 2025 East West Rail services planned to begin this year as Chiltern Railways named operator Chiltern Railways named as operator for first East West Rail...

www.railforums.co.uk

Will there be direct trains going from Marylebone to Milton Keynes via Oxford, or have I misunderstood the press release and current alignment map?

 

[The Planner]

Will there be direct trains going from Marylebone to Milton Keynes via Oxford or have I misunderstood the press release and current alignment map?

No. You would need a reversal for that. The Marylebone Oxford and Oxford Milton Keynes are different services.

 

[Railguy1]

No. You would need a reversal for that. The Marylebone Oxford and Oxford Milton Keynes are different services.

I see, thanks.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

No. You would need a reversal for that. The Marylebone Oxford and Oxford Milton Keynes are different services.

And just to add: A through service Marylebone-Oxford-Milton Keynes would be pointless: Noone would use it to reverse at Oxford because if you're travelling to Milton Keynes from anywhere between Marylebone and Thame Parkway, it would still be quicker to change at Bicester Village - since with a half hourly service to Milton Keynes, the maximum waiting time there will almost always be shorter than the time it would take to stay on the train to Oxford and then reverse back to Bicester.

 

[BlueLeanie]

Will there be direct trains going from Marylebone to Milton Keynes via Oxford or have I misunderstood the press release and current alignment map?

In future there is potential for a Marylebone - Aylesbury - Milton Keynes service.

In the meantime, I suspect we should never say never to some form of shuttle running Paddington-Bletchley/MK or Marylebone - Bletchley with a reversal at Bicester Village during planned weekend engineering works South of Bletchley.

 

[ShadowKnight]

I presume that's why GWR trains were testing on EWR a while ago

 

[zwk500]

In future there is potential for a Marylebone - Aylesbury - Milton Keynes service.

I've only ever seen this as Aylesbury-MK only in any kind of 'official' plans although yes it's not impossible Chiltern could extend some London-Aylesburys.

In the meantime, I suspect we should never say never to some form of shuttle running Paddington-Bletchley/MK or Marylebone - Bletchley with a reversal at Bicester Village during planned weekend engineering works South of Bletchley.

It's not impossible but I suspect running the longest formation possible on MK-Oxford will be seen as a better option than running Paddington-MK throughout. But, as you say, never say never.

I presume that's why GWR trains were testing on EWR a while ago

I thought GWR's tests were to do with ideas for when OOC is blocked?

 

[DarloRich]

I thought GWR's tests were to do with ideas for when OOC is blocked?

correct!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The danger of through MKC-AYS-MYB is that if the WCML is disrupted nobody on the Chiltern core will be able to board what are usually fairly short trains. Keeping it as a connection keeps a level of obscurity, just as many don't think to divert via Bedford in disruption.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I've only ever seen this as Aylesbury-MK only in any kind of 'official' plans although yes it's not impossible Chiltern could extend some London-Aylesburys.

Does what has actually been built include a chord from E-W Rail that would make an Aylesbury-Milton Keynes service possible, or would more infrastructure work be required before you could run such a service?

 

[zwk500]

Does what has actually been built include a chord from E-W Rail that would make an Aylesbury-Milton Keynes service possible, or would more infrastructure work be required before you could run such a service?

AIUI HS2 will be putting the chord back in when they've done the changes they need to in that area, but that's not for a while. IIRC a single track from the Jn to Aylesbury was sufficient for the proposed service, which was probably 1tph.

 

[NickBucks]

The danger of through MKC-AYS-MYB is that if the WCML is disrupted nobody on the Chiltern core will be able to board what are usually fairly short trains. Keeping it as a connection keeps a level of obscurity, just as many don't think to divert via Bedford in disruption.

This is a difficult one. I suspect the reason that Aylesbury > MKC was not included in the final E-W plans was due to doubts about the revenue stream.

Yet Aylesbury itself needs this link due to the thousands (and I mean thousands) of new homes being built both north and south of the town yet the powers that be (stand up Buckinghamshire Council and before that Buckinghamshire County Council) never bothered with an infrastructure to support said houses, and so we have an inadequate road network, the resolution of which is down to the developers who might get around to it in due course.

So the railway is needed to serve what is now a commuter town. I understand the problem you have highlighted.

I assume that Marylebone - Wycombe - Aylesbury - MKC is out of the question, due to pathing constraints? That leaves MKC - Aylesbury - Amersham- Marylebone as the only option.

Off-topic I know and the future of that line has been covered under separate headings before, but I suspect that GBR/DfT or whoever will have to take a long hard look at that route, to see if they can overcome the issues and obstacles they would face.

 

[The Planner]

In the meantime, I suspect we should never say never to some form of shuttle running Paddington-Bletchley/MK or Marylebone - Bletchley with a reversal at Bicester Village during planned weekend engineering works South of Bletchley.

I would, its highly unlikely, Avanti wouldn't have enough 805s for a start.

 

[BlueLeanie]

I've only ever seen this as Aylesbury-MK only in any kind of 'official' plans although yes it's not impossible Chiltern could extend some London-Aylesburys.

Until this week it has been absolute secret as to who the operator of East-West would be. If they'd stated earlier that E-W service would operate from Marylebone to Milton Keynes via Aylesbury, it might have given the game away. In reality we've all been wondering who the operator might be.

So now that Chiltern has been revealed as the operator, we can ponder on whether an Aylesbury to Milton Keynes shuttle (once HS2 have reinstated the chord) would be both the best use of stock & drivers and deliver the connectivity across Buckinghamshire that is so desperately needed.

I'm not a diagramming specialist, but there are certainly people on here who are.

So probably the first question would be whether it is better to have three independent Aylesbury diagrams when the chord opens (Aylesbury-MK, AVP-Marylebone, Aylesbury-Princes Risborough) or to consolidate these diagrams, or even change the diagrams altogether.

Connecting Milton Keynes to Marylebone might be a step too far, but should the service run to Princes Risborough or even High Wycome.

Then there is infrastructure, if Buckinghamshire is to be better connected, does Aylesbury Vale Parkway need to be rebuilt to permit Northbound services (think that's a yes) and does High Wycombe need to be rebuilt to permit terminating services from the North? Does High Wycombe need rebuilt anyway?

 

[swt_passenger]

In future there is potential for a Marylebone - Aylesbury - Milton Keynes service.

In the meantime, I suspect we should never say never to some form of shuttle running Paddington-Bletchley/MK or Marylebone - Bletchley with a reversal at Bicester Village during planned weekend engineering works South of Bletchley.

The original plan was definitely for through trains from Marylebone to Milton Keynes, but via Princes Risborough and Aylesbury. DfT binned it in favour of just Aylesbury to Milton Keynes, removing the need to improve the single line. But even the short service is hanging on by a thread. I suggest the likelihood of through Marylebone services is incredibly low, even on diversion.

 

[Deepgreen]

No. You would need a reversal for that. The Marylebone Oxford and Oxford Milton Keynes are different services.

Reversals in themselves do not preclude through trains, Reading to Gatwick at Redhill being an example local to me.

 

[SynthD]

Is HS2 reinstating the single track to its previous standard, or to a EWR-standard two track line?

 

[The Planner]

Reversals in themselves do not preclude through trains, Reading to Gatwick at Redhill being an example local to me.

They don't, but in this case it makes no sense whatsoever.

Is HS2 reinstating the single track to its previous standard, or to a EWR-standard two track line?

Single but to a higher standard, but only to where the existing line exists.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

I assume that Marylebone - Wycombe - Aylesbury - MKC is out of the question, due to pathing constraints? That leaves MKC - Aylesbury - Amersham- Marylebone as the only option.

Not quite. Extending the existing shuttle to become Princes Risborough–Aylesbury–MKC is eminently doable.

 

[Mikey C]

Not quite. Extending the existing shuttle to become Princes Risborough–Aylesbury–MKC is eminently doable.

Indeed it would make the current service a lot more useful, as the stations between Princes and Aylesbury are pretty quiet. There's definitely spare capacity on that branch for more passengers, even without increasing the frequency.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Back-of-envelope calculations:

Princes Risborough to Aylesbury is timetabled at 16 minutes.
Aylesbury to Claydon West Junction is 11.5 miles. Including a stop at Aylesbury Vale Parkway, let's say 18 minutes.
Claydon West Junction to Milton Keynes Central is timetabled at 23 minutes.

So that's 57 minutes end-to-end. Bit too tight to run an hourly service on two units sadly, but a 90-minute interval service (which the Risborough-Aylesbury branch is for much of the day) might be doable.

 

[renegademaster]

What improvement would it bring over taking the LNWR or Avanti service other than not having to put up with Euston?

 

[zwk500]

What improvement would it bring over taking the LNWR or Avanti service other than not having to put up with Euston?

Mainly it'd be providing a Chiltern/Met Line link to MK, and Winslow a direct link to London, than MK or Bletchley an alternative route to London.

 

[Snow1964]

Would Chiltern actually have enough rolling stock for these services.

There are already cuts and short forms in Birmingham area because of use of their 172s (when they are short of serviceable 196s) as they have been promised for East-West services.

So if Chiltern is having to borrow stock, could it actually manage if more routes were devised

 

[D365]

Until this week it has been absolute secret as to who the operator of East-West would be. If they'd stated earlier that E-W service would operate from Marylebone to Milton Keynes via Aylesbury, it might have given the game away. In reality we've all been wondering who the operator might be.

A secret? Really? The sublease of six Class 196/0 units from WMT to Chiltern was common knowledge in the public domain and has been known about for some years.

 

[A S Leib]

Mainly it'd be providing a Chiltern/Met Line link to MK

Which, leaving the question of whether a link further south should be built aside, would seem be a fair alternative to the Croxley Rail Link; the quickest way north would probably be to get onto the WCML quicker, but given that Milton Keynes (and Bletchley) has more connections than Watford Junction apart from St. Albans and Hemel Hempstead (journeys which most people would drive or go by bus for), it would still be a big improvement for Rickmansworth, Amersham etc. to Milton Keynes, Birmingham and Manchester.

 

[cle]

Once the curve is in place (and the line reinstated, at 90mph if I recall) - it will be possible. We’ll have to see if it can be done re stock, drivers and capacity.

In theory Aylesbury is a large town with a lot of home building, and not a great economy - good access to MKC might be a real boon. And 1tph might ultimately not be enough in future.

2A at MKC will have 2tph to Oxford at this point and that is supposedly the max as it stands.

Options -
Aylesbury to Bletchley alone isn’t that helpful. Aylesbury to Bedford is pointless, it needs to get to MKC. Although a Marston link up would hand that to Chiltern, which likely makes sense longer term.

Assuming no new line and bays at MKC, it would need either extending EWR services (1tph on to Northampton and/or Rugby?) and substituting the Aylesbury in.

Or EWR is cut back to Bletchley once an hour (or that one goes to Bedford) and Aylesbury takes the spot.

But for the medium term the goal is 2tph Oxford-MKC and 1tph Oxford-Bedford (by 2030 before any works east of Bedford) - so this would be in addition. I suspect one service turning at Bletchley is most likely.

 

[Starmill]

Until this week it has been absolute secret as to who the operator of East-West would be

I hate to burst your bubble here but Chiltern were known to be working on this at least as far back as 2023. The document is here: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...truction-progress.216561/page-54#post-6746600

As supplied by swt_passenger. It was also obvious it was going on behind the scenes for quite a few years prior to that. So while it may be the case that the Rail Minister was up for doing a nice press release this week and the Department having some "good news" out during one of the most difficult weeks for the new government, I think that's about as far as that goes.

 

[zwk500]

2A at MKC will have 2tph to Oxford at this point and that is supposedly the max as it stands.

AIUI the problem is not platform capacity but the line capacity from Denbigh Hall South jn to MK.

Which, leaving the question of whether a link further south should be built aside, would seem be a fair alternative to the Croxley Rail Link; the quickest way north would probably be to get onto the WCML quicker, but given that Milton Keynes (and Bletchley) has more connections than Watford Junction apart from St. Albans and Hemel Hempstead (journeys which most people would drive or go by bus for), it would still be a big improvement for Rickmansworth, Amersham etc. to Milton Keynes, Birmingham and Manchester.

Maybe, although I'd be sceptical if that benefit was big enough to justfiy the risk of transferring the delay, as opposed to requiring a reasonably simple change at Aylesbury/AVP.

Once the curve is in place (and the line reinstated, at 90mph if I recall) - it will be possible. We’ll have to see if it can be done re stock, drivers and capacity.

I'm fairly sure the curve itself won't be 90mph, given how tight it is. The straight bit from Aylesbury to the curve probably will be though.

 

[Starmill]

The original plan was definitely for through trains from Marylebone to Milton Keynes, but via Princes Risborough and Aylesbury. DfT binned it in favour of just Aylesbury to Milton Keynes, removing the need to improve the single line. But even the short service is hanging on by a thread. I suggest the likelihood of through Marylebone services is incredibly low, even on diversion.

Indeed. We're not going to be getting very far without a new curve and something that can be signed off to take a regular passenger service between it and Aylesbury Vale Parkway as an absolute bare minimum. That would also not allow for trains to call at Aylesbury Vale Parkway unless terminating there, as now.