Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[birchesgreen]

As a 20Y/O, the situation feels incredibly hopeless. I can't remember a time when the economy wasn't in a desperate state, when jobs were secure, etc. We had 2008, austerity, then Brexit (which I couldn't vote in), more Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, now Coronavirus.

Don't worry, i grew up in the 80s so am pretty familiar with things feeling hopeless at your age things will get better... and worse again and so on.

 

[Bantamzen]

If that's how you really feel, as in you can see nothing good at all in the UK, then you probably want to talk to someone about depression yourself; it's really not how things are.

The present Government are rubbish, but the Government don't define the country.



All I'll say to that is "wow, they know how to do contact tracing".

I wouldn't be publishing it, but for contact tracing to work it does have to be that invasive. Small wonder they're doing better than we are.

Proper contact tracing is like private investigation, not a "phone a friend service" like our joke of a system.

At first glance it looks impressive doesn't it? But unwittingly you have highlighted one of it's problems. You say the data has to be invasive, but should not be published? Then how do users of the system know to seek testing or possibly isolate? Do they rely on official agencies to tell them that they have to isolate even though the risk may be insignificant to them? You still somehow have to reconcile all the T&T data, pass it through the relevant algorithms to tell the end user what they may have to do. The article talks about transparency being key to public trust in South Korea, take that away and you take away the trust, take away the trust and you lose effectiveness.

Of course there are other more worrying problems with such a system, gathering data like that from multiple sources is effectively producing a detailed profile of each user of the system, from movements, shopping habits, relationships, and of course identification. That is a hacker's dream, particularly those interested in selling identities. Unlike say Google's tracking algorithms, these seem to carry much more specific data which not only could help identify & track a particular person, but also enough data for the digital criminal world to see a product to sell on the dark web. That's not to say that this hasn't been thought about by the South Korean government, but I'll bet you any amount of money that right now hackers are looking for ways in, if not already found.

 

[Domh245]

Eh, I'd say fining people for seeing friends is about as authoritarian as it gets.

A better way about this would be giving people complete freedom, then telling them when they are at risk of spreading and need to isolate and paying them fully for their time off.

Contact tracing should be helping you to trace contacts beyond what you could do anyway on text message.

Like @43066 says, it's a damned if you do/don't scenario. Either you're being fined (or at least, threatened with) for meeting friends and family, or having your ever last movement monitored and published. I think I'd rather the former (just) but both are hugely unpalatable

Yes, it’s fair to say it’s cataclysmic at least in the short term. But at least at 20 you have time to weather it.

The reverse of that though is the younger you are, the longer this whole sorry thing seems to have dragged on for. We're ~210 days on from Boris' 'lockdown' speech, which is 2.5% of all the time I've been alive (and almost 20% of my life has been post-referendum). The younger you are, the longer it feels like it's dragged on for. Of course it will get better (right?), but at the time it doesn't half feel awful and terminal, especially if you don't have any reference 'good times' to fall back on

 

[C J Snarzell]

I remember the ressession of the early 1990s when John Major won his only election as Prime Minister and the issue with redundancies and unemployment was rife. I was in year 8 at secondary school and I remember the careers advisers recommending any of us with a good level of academic discipline should continue on to higher education if we could, to improve our long term chances of securing steady employment.

I also vaguely remember Boys from the Blackstuff as a youngster in which all the central characters where affected by unemployment. Although a TV programme of it's era it kind of reflected the mood and realism of the time. I recall Bernard Hill's character had suffered a mental breakdown and walked everywhere hunting for jobs with his children following him. I've read newspaper articles recently of people doing not dissimilar things to get a job - such as handing out their CVs at train stations and shopping malls.

In terms of the 2008 recession, I don't recall too much hardship but I know at least two friends affected by it who were made redundant at the time, but they quickly secured new jobs quite swiftly.

CJ

 

[Bletchleyite]

Other snake oil is scrap HS2 and replace it with hyperloop. We don't need buses because autonomous cars. We don't need trams because Elon Musk loop.

That's all a load of garbage, though, and won't happen.

True, my main concern with track and trace app right now is that it'll literally tell me to isolate every week because of the amount of covid out there. I guess track and trace kinda breaks down once too many people get it.

It'll only tell you to isolate if you've spent a decent amount of time (I forget what it is) close to someone who's tested positive. You should isolate if that happens, grim though it is.

A better way about this would be giving people complete freedom, then telling them when they are at risk of spreading and need to isolate and paying them fully for their time off.

I agree with the latter (or maybe the 80% figure, because that stops people trying to get traced deliberately for a free 2 weeks off). The former wouldn't really work in my view.

Contact tracing should be helping you to trace contacts beyond what you could do anyway on text message.

Which is what it does when done properly, it delves deep into your life to see where you've been. It is invasive, but it only works if it's invasive. One upside of the app is that it sort of does that for you - that person you were stood next to in a long queue and were a bit close to will be traced, for example, but without any loss of privacy.

Don't worry, i grew up in the 80s so am pretty familiar with things feeling hopeless at your age things will get better... and worse again and so on.

That's just how life kind-of is, and it's not just like that in the UK. OK, we probably had an unprecedented period of stuff being quite good from the fall of the Berlin wall up to 9/11, but other than that...

 

[Crossover]

One upside of the app is that it sort of does that for you - that person you were stood next to in a long queue and were a bit close to will be traced, for example, but without any loss of privacy.

But you could be in that long queue stood shoulder to shoulder, but with a wall of Perspex between. The app isn't going to know that

 

[Bletchleyite]

But you could be in that long queue stood shoulder to shoulder, but with a wall of Perspex between. The app isn't going to know that

True, that is a downside of all the privacy stuff. If it recorded your name and phone number plus precise location, you could get a call from a contact tracer who would discuss exactly when it was and where[1], you'd point out the presence of the perspex and they'd say "OK, you don't need to isolate, but keep an eye out for symptoms just in case".

It's an imperfect solution because of the number of conspiracy-theory refuseniks you'd otherwise get.

[1] Just like in a pub - if one person has it in a large 'Spoons they aren't going to tell the whole pub to isolate, they'll talk to you about where you were sitting etc.

 

[DelayRepay]

At first glance it looks impressive doesn't it? But unwittingly you have highlighted one of it's problems. You say the data has to be invasive, but should not be published? Then how do users of the system know to seek testing or possibly isolate? Do they rely on official agencies to tell them that they have to isolate even though the risk may be insignificant to them? You still somehow have to reconcile all the T&T data, pass it through the relevant algorithms to tell the end user what they may have to do. The article talks about transparency being key to public trust in South Korea, take that away and you take away the trust, take away the trust and you lose effectiveness.

Of course there are other more worrying problems with such a system, gathering data like that from multiple sources is effectively producing a detailed profile of each user of the system, from movements, shopping habits, relationships, and of course identification. That is a hacker's dream, particularly those interested in selling identities. Unlike say Google's tracking algorithms, these seem to carry much more specific data which not only could help identify & track a particular person, but also enough data for the digital criminal world to see a product to sell on the dark web. That's not to say that this hasn't been thought about by the South Korean government, but I'll bet you any amount of money that right now hackers are looking for ways in, if not already found.

I think there is a more fundamental reason why we can't have such a system in the UK. Simply that we could not, despite spending £24bn on the Test and Trace system, manage to transfer the results from one system to another. I dread to think how Serco would manage to process all this data, even if they were given access.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think there is a more fundamental reason why we can't have such a system in the UK. Simply that we could not, despite spending £24bn on the Test and Trace system, manage to transfer the results from one system to another. I dread to think how Serco would manage to process all this data, even if they were given access.

.csv files perchance?

 

[C J Snarzell]

I think there is a more fundamental reason why we can't have such a system in the UK. Simply that we could not, despite spending £24bn on the Test and Trace system, manage to transfer the results from one system to another. I dread to think how Serco would manage to process all this data, even if they were given access.

Given how Serco run their prisons - I dread to think how much of a mess they will make of the track & trace. As Clint Eastwood says in the film Heartbreak Ridge - a 'Clusterf**k'.

CJ

 

[Jimini]

.csv files perchance?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Well probably not the right thread for it but my colleague just tested positive for COVID 19. I could be infected. My test is tomorrow morning 8.30 EDT so 1330 BST. Should get results within 24 hours. I have one of the companies infra red thermometers to check me and my wife’s temperature every 4 hours.

 

[Jozhua]

Yes, it’s fair to say it’s cataclysmic at least in the short term. But at least at 20 you have time to weather it.

It might not seem like it but the economy has been in a reasonable state for the last few years. Economic growth wasn’t stellar, but we had low unemployment, low interest rates, low inflation, some house price growth etc.

Just below your age I was starting uni in 2001, and things seemed pretty bleak then, but were a little better when I graduated in ‘04. I was then working during 2008/9. That felt like the world was ending, at the time, and I had a period of unemployment (admittedly working in the financial services sector at the time perhaps made it seem worse than it was for many).

Unfortunately Covid is way, way worse than both of the above combined, and isn’t really comparable to anything within living memory for most of us. I can’t remember anything like it, and neither can my parents, who can remember 1970s, the winter of discontent etc. Covid is more akin to a WW2 type event.



I’m afraid snake oil salesman (ie politicians) are what has led the EU to develop into a bloated bureaucracy, trying to shoehorn a number of culturally, politically and economically incompatible states into a superstate, in order to feed a vanity project. That strategy clearly hasn’t worked. But, this is off topic, so I’ll leave it there!

I suspect the overall point that poster was making is that we are basically damned either way.

I suppose unenforceable, arbitrary rules restricting us from meeting friends and family could be argued to be less authoritarian and dystopian than insistence on constantly producing contact details to faceless jobsworths’ “papers please” style.

Oh yeah, I'd agree the EU has got overly bloated. I think that open borders stuff isn't so bad and if you want open trade, you need regulatory consistency. I think also having the ability to keep members' human rights abuses in check is important. But a lot of the policies are unnecessary. Especially when you have larger countries like Germany trying to impose their will on others, in regards to things like nuclear power for example.

I think that this country does have a cultural cringe in many respects. I've always been of the view that we should try and emulate more economically stable social democratic countries to counter the Thatcherite market ethos that has led to many of the problems you describe. I certainly don't subscribe to the view espoused by some that we should be gazing admiringly at authoritarian dictatorships, particularly given that this current crisis appears most likely to have been caused by poor food production standards in one of them.

As for SAGE, they might as well replace them with a looped cassette tape repeating the word "lockdown" continually. It would be cheaper.

Oh yeah, I don't think we have to go full socialism to realise the government also has a role to play in facilitating a strong, just economy. Governments tend to build bridges, roads and railways well and the private sector tends to do smartphones & consumer retail better. Education and healthcare provision is up for debate, but there is no doubt about the massive positive impact that education & healthcare being free at the point of use brings to the country. Unfortunately it's "no other way, magic money tree, rational markets" vs the Authoritarian Tankie Twitter Furries and everybody loses.

If you had a cassette player that changes sides for you, I think that would work better. The whole government needs to do better with planning longer term. Just kinda winging it is going to result in the worst possible outcome.

Don't worry, i grew up in the 80s so am pretty familiar with things feeling hopeless at your age things will get better... and worse again and so on.

Hopefully they do, but Corona feels pretty desperate. I have absolutely no faith that the Conservatives can actually bring the economy back.

Like @43066 says, it's a damned if you do/don't scenario. Either you're being fined (or at least, threatened with) for meeting friends and family, or having your ever last movement monitored and published. I think I'd rather the former (just) but both are hugely unpalatable

The reverse of that though is the younger you are, the longer this whole sorry thing seems to have dragged on for. We're ~210 days on from Boris' 'lockdown' speech, which is 2.5% of all the time I've been alive (and almost 20% of my life has been post-referendum). The younger you are, the longer it feels like it's dragged on for. Of course it will get better (right?), but at the time it doesn't half feel awful and terminal, especially if you don't have any reference 'good times' to fall back on

I think it would be best if it could be automated, with access to that information. As long as it is done on a need to know basis, I think it's probably one of the better uses of surveillance. But yeah, both bad situations.

That's all a load of garbage, though, and won't happen.

It'll only tell you to isolate if you've spent a decent amount of time (I forget what it is) close to someone who's tested positive. You should isolate if that happens, grim though it is.

I agree with the latter (or maybe the 80% figure, because that stops people trying to get traced deliberately for a free 2 weeks off). The former wouldn't really work in my view.

Which is what it does when done properly, it delves deep into your life to see where you've been. It is invasive, but it only works if it's invasive. One upside of the app is that it sort of does that for you - that person you were stood next to in a long queue and were a bit close to will be traced, for example, but without any loss of privacy.

That's just how life kind-of is, and it's not just like that in the UK. OK, we probably had an unprecedented period of stuff being quite good from the fall of the Berlin wall up to 9/11, but other than that...

The problem is you are expected to support yourself, yet getting into the world of work is made so difficult. You have to compete with so many of your peers just to get a wage which you can survive on. This has only got worse with rona.

 

[43066]

Hopefully they do, but Corona feels pretty desperate. I have absolutely no faith that the Conservatives can actually bring the economy back.

The received wisdom is that it’s Labour who wreck the economy, and the Tories who have the good sense to restore it.

All bets are off with this shower of a government who seem to be the worst of all worlds. A Tory government with all of the associated nastiness, but none of the common sense, who have embarked on a kamikaze spending spree.

The problem is you are expected to support yourself, yet getting into the world of work is made so difficult. You have to compete with so many of your peers just to get a wage which you can survive on. This has only got worse with rona.

Unfortunately, as you get older you will realise life is basically one great big David Attenborough documentary. The human race is essentially a frothing, giant, bucket of drowning rats, all trying to climb over each other to survive.

Your objective is to get to the surface by whatever means necessary. Whether that’s being born as a big rat, or educating yourself to get there, doesn’t matter. You need to push all the smaller rats down, in order to get further towards the surface yourself! If you can develop a sense of humour along the way, so much the better.

Mark my words .

 

[yorkie]

This thread is no longer on topic and is discussing all sorts of other things, which are covered by other threads.

I have therefore locked this thread to avoid duplication.