Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[Bayum]

Shielding ended on the 1st of April this year and like everybody else CEVs have been asked to take personal responsibility. What’s wrong with that?

The vast majority are in far less danger at this point than at any previous time during the pandemic, and I can’t help but feel they are being used as pawns by those wishing to prolong restrictions. I’ve heard all kinds of emotive nonsense used in reference to CEVs such as “thrown under the bus” and even “condemned to death” which is both inaccurate and completely irresponsible. These people need advice and support, not scaring even more than they have been already.

You’re missing the point. CEVs are being asked to reduce their time spent in public to reduce their risk of catching COVID. You say we aren’t being thrown under the bus - what are we meant to do when restrictions are lifted and someone relies on public transport for example? How are we meant to reduce contact with unvaccinated individuals if we want to have a meal out? I get your point about what CEVs did prior to COVID - years of vaccination, herd immunity and the fact that little has been has been endemic as COVID, nor with a high mortality rate.

 

[DustyBin]

The railway needs the crowds back in due course, for the sake of viability, but you raise an interesting point.

The mask debate has created a lot of heat, but one of the other Covid mitigants on the railway has been to ‘space out’ passengers by means of reservations; suspending the lower tiers of Advance fares, or self-policing by which those travelling short distances stand in the aisle rather than sit next to a stranger who has, in any case, ‘reserved’ the seat beside them with a bag. And because passenger numbers have been depleted by the lack of commuters, the policy of creating personal space for those who are travelling has worked reasonably well, although there has still been some crowding here and there.

Now, there are plenty of advocates for the end of the mask mandate, but the current popular policy of (virtually) guaranteeing a ‘2’ to oneself on a London-Edinburgh or Devon-Newcastle run will also have to end.

When the long distance TOCs come out and say ‘okay, it’s a seating free-for-all again, sort yourselves out and be prepared to share with a stranger as the new (old) normal’, from which quarters is their support going to come from? Having a ‘2’ for sole occupancy is a Covid restriction just as a mask is, but I’ve not heard any complaints about it!

I’ll hold my hands up I love having space on the train but ultimately I recognise it’s selfish and unsustainable to expect it indefinitely. Perhaps when the options are busy train or no train at all people will support a return to normal?

 

[Dent]

You’re missing the point. CEVs are being asked to reduce their time spent in public to reduce their risk of catching COVID. You say we aren’t being thrown under the bus - what are we meant to do when restrictions are lifted and someone relies on public transport for example? How are we meant to reduce contact with unvaccinated individuals if we want to have a meal out? I get your point about what CEVs did prior to COVID - years of vaccination, herd immunity and the fact that little has been has been endemic as COVID, nor with a high mortality rate.

What alternative are you actually advocating? "Thrown under a bus" is unhelpful emotive language when what we really need is rational discussion leading to a coherent strategy.

 

[VauxhallandI]

You’re missing the point. CEVs are being asked to reduce their time spent in public to reduce their risk of catching COVID. You say we aren’t being thrown under the bus - what are we meant to do when restrictions are lifted and someone relies on public transport for example? How are we meant to reduce contact with unvaccinated individuals if we want to have a meal out? I get your point about what CEVs did prior to COVID - years of vaccination, herd immunity and the fact that little has been has been endemic as COVID, nor with a high mortality rate.

Vaccination doesn't mean zero infections though does it so what's the next move after every thing the moves on the planet has been vaccinated?

 

[Bantamzen]

You’re missing the point. CEVs are being asked to reduce their time spent in public to reduce their risk of catching COVID. You say we aren’t being thrown under the bus - what are we meant to do when restrictions are lifted and someone relies on public transport for example? How are we meant to reduce contact with unvaccinated individuals if we want to have a meal out? I get your point about what CEVs did prior to COVID - years of vaccination, herd immunity and the fact that little has been has been endemic as COVID, nor with a high mortality rate.

No, they are being asked to take responsibility to evaluate the risks & make their own decisions. We cannot keep asking the whole of society to partially shut down to achieve the same.

 

[DustyBin]

You’re missing the point. CEVs are being asked to reduce their time spent in public to reduce their risk of catching COVID. You say we aren’t being thrown under the bus - what are we meant to do when restrictions are lifted and someone relies on public transport for example? How are we meant to reduce contact with unvaccinated individuals if we want to have a meal out? I get your point about what CEVs did prior to COVID - years of vaccination, herd immunity and the fact that little has been has been endemic as COVID, nor with a high mortality rate.

The way I read it (i.e. the guidance) is you’re being asked to assess the risk for yourself. The guidance provides suggestions as to how you may want to lower the risk but I don’t see that it tells you to do anything specific (other than get vaccinated assuming you can). If you feel uncomfortable using public transport could you use an FFP3 mask for example? In terms of reducing contact with unvaccinated individuals, what is the actual risk? They could be asymptomatic of course, but so could a vaccinated individual. Is it really worth organising your life around avoiding them? (That’s a genuine question, I honestly don’t know). The mortality rate from covid is now extremely low, I do however think a lot of psychological damage has been done. Some individuals will of course still be vulnerable but again, at this stage the same group would, I expect, be equally vulnerable to cold and flu.

 

[initiation]

The Zoe study is showing cases starting to bend over - a potential peak coming up? I am going to go out on a limb and say I am honestly expecting cases to peak next week and then decline (or at least not increase further) regardless of the 19th. There is very little real life evidence globally of these sort of restrictions making any material difference to trends in cases - in theoretical models yes, real life no.

And yes, getting ready to eat my metaphorical hat if cases resume shooting up. Regardless, deaths should be very low.

I get your point about what CEVs did prior to COVID - years of vaccination, herd immunity and the fact that little has been has been endemic as COVID, nor with a high mortality rate.

How many common viruses have 90% of the adult population having anti-bodies? With the vaccines the covid mortality rate is very very low.

 

[trebor79]

The way I read it (i.e. the guidance) is you’re being asked to assess the risk for yourself. The provides suggestions as to how you may want to lower the risk but I don’t see that tells you to do anything specific (other than get vaccinated assuming you can). If you feel uncomfortable using public transport could you use an FFP3 mask for example? In terms of reducing contact with unvaccinated individuals, what is the actual risk? They could be asymptomatic of course, but so could a vaccinated individual. Is it really worth organising your life around avoiding them? (That’s a genuine question, I honestly don’t know). The mortality rate from covid is now extremely low, I do however think a lot of psychological damage has been done. Some individuals will of course still be vulnerable but again, at this stage the same group would, I expect, be equally vulnerable to cold and flu.

The other thing you can do is see how at risk you actually are. My mother is CEV because she has stem cell treatment for lymphoma and hence has a rather weakened immune system.
She was quite worried (but not hysterical) about masks going as she had no side effects from vaccination and was more or less convinced it hadn't worked. We bought a £50 antibody test from Lloyds pharmacy and she got the results on Tuesday saying she had antibodies sufficient to confer immunity. She's much more at ease now as she knows the vaccination will more than likely provide some significant protection, and if buying some FFP3 masks for situations where she's in a crowded place.
She agrees the cloth face coverings are just stupid comfort blankets.

 

[takno]

The railway needs the crowds back in due course, for the sake of viability, but you raise an interesting point.

The mask debate has created a lot of heat, but one of the other Covid mitigants on the railway has been to ‘space out’ passengers by means of reservations; suspending the lower tiers of Advance fares, or self-policing by which those travelling short distances stand in the aisle rather than sit next to a stranger who has, in any case, ‘reserved’ the seat beside them with a bag. And because passenger numbers have been depleted by the lack of commuters, the policy of creating personal space for those who are travelling has worked reasonably well, although there has still been some crowding here and there.

Now, there are plenty of advocates for the end of the mask mandate, but the current popular policy of (virtually) guaranteeing a ‘2’ to oneself on a London-Edinburgh or Devon-Newcastle run will also have to end.

When the long distance TOCs come out and say ‘okay, it’s a seating free-for-all again, sort yourselves out and be prepared to share with a stranger as the new (old) normal’, from which quarters is their support going to come from? Having a ‘2’ for sole occupancy is a Covid restriction just as a mask is, but I’ve not heard any complaints about it!

I hate social distancing on LNER. The sooner i can actually get back to buying walk up tickets, being able to get the train when I actually want to travel on, and being free to take a comfort break from the awful seats halfway down the better. Having to share a double seat is a very small price to pay for that convenience and availability

 

[Domh245]

The Zoe study is showing cases starting to bend over - a potential peak coming up? I am going to go out on a limb and say I am honestly expecting cases to peak next week and then decline (or at least not increase further) regardless of the 19th. There is very little real life evidence globally of these sort of restrictions making any material difference to trends in cases - in theoretical models yes, real life no.

The rate of growth of positive tests has also been starting to slow, which implies a 'peak' coming soon. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, particularly as we seem to be seeing distinct ripples across the country, so we may see a sustained 'peak' as different areas experience the same trajectory at different times. I think you're also right in that we won't see drastic changes in trajectory from the changes on the 19th

 

[bengley]

The Zoe study is showing cases starting to bend over - a potential peak coming up? I am going to go out on a limb and say I am honestly expecting cases to peak next week and then decline (or at least not increase further) regardless of the 19th. There is very little real life evidence globally of these sort of restrictions making any material difference to trends in cases - in theoretical models yes, real life no.

And yes, getting ready to eat my metaphorical hat if cases resume shooting up. Regardless, deaths should be very low.


How many common viruses have 90% of the adult population having anti-bodies? With the vaccines the covid mortality rate is very very low.

It does certainly look like it's following the path of the previous peaks and with no changes to restrictions and major events like the football going on, it's promising to see.

 

[DustyBin]

The other thing you can do is see how at risk you actually are. My mother is CEV because she has stem cell treatment for lymphoma and hence has a rather weakened immune system.
She was quite worried (but not hysterical) about masks going as she had no side effects from vaccination and was more or less convinced it hadn't worked. We bought a £50 antibody test from Lloyds pharmacy and she got the results on Tuesday saying she had antibodies sufficient to confer immunity. She's much more at ease now as she knows the vaccination will more than likely provide some significant protection, and if buying some FFP3 masks for situations where she's in a crowded place.
She agrees the cloth face coverings are just stupid comfort blankets.

I’ve mentioned it before but my Aunt is CEV and although she shielded initially she retuned to work after the first wave (she works in a hospital of all places). As you say, within the CEV group there are sub-groups some of whom are more vulnerable than others.

It’s difficult, I by no means take the attitude of “sod them they’re a small group and don’t matter” but at the same time the rest of society needs to reopen or everybody will suffer. What I really don’t like is how some people are trying to use them to further their own agenda. If they really cared about CEVs they’d be providing rational advice not stoking panic and hysteria.

 

[takno]

The Zoe study is showing cases starting to bend over - a potential peak coming up? I am going to go out on a limb and say I am honestly expecting cases to peak next week and then decline (or at least not increase further) regardless of the 19th. There is very little real life evidence globally of these sort of restrictions making any material difference to trends in cases - in theoretical models yes, real life no.

And yes, getting ready to eat my metaphorical hat if cases resume shooting up. Regardless, deaths should be very low.

I was trying to do some back-of-the-fag packet calculations on deaths yesterday. Seems to me based on positive results in the last 28 days and the numbers of deaths _with_ covid, that people with a positive test result are half as likely to die within the next 28 days as that population in general.

Obviously I may have the sums fairly wrong, and the disease is running rampant through children who generally aren't in the habit of dying much anyway. You've got to question the value of the raw metric though, if we're labelling it as "Covid deaths" and it's actually telling us that almost all of them probably died of something else.

 

[Bishopstone]

I’ll hold my hands up I love having space on the train but ultimately I recognise it’s selfish and unsustainable to expect it indefinitely. Perhaps when the options are busy train or no train at all people will support a return to normal?

Maybe.

In getting rid of masks, the Government and TOCs can at least rely upon a solid 30% of public support, and this % will likely grow as the third wave recedes.

I still wonder where the active support will come from for requiring the sharing of a bay of seats with a (maskless) stranger(s) this autumn, on an InterCity run. I think we will find that many anti-mask activists, even, enjoy personal space and will stay silent when those still scared of Covid press for ongoing restrictions on occupancy in this regard.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Maybe.

In getting rid of masks, the Government and TOCs can at least rely upon a solid 30% of public support, and this % will likely grow as the third wave recedes.

I still wonder where the active support will come from for requiring the sharing of a bay of seats with a (maskless) stranger(s) this autumn, on an InterCity run. I think we will find that many anti-mask activists, even, enjoy personal space and will stay silent when those still scared of Covid press for ongoing restrictions on occupancy in this regard.

Well you can count me out of that expectation for a start.

 

[brad465]

The Zoe study is showing cases starting to bend over - a potential peak coming up? I am going to go out on a limb and say I am honestly expecting cases to peak next week and then decline (or at least not increase further) regardless of the 19th. There is very little real life evidence globally of these sort of restrictions making any material difference to trends in cases - in theoretical models yes, real life no.

And yes, getting ready to eat my metaphorical hat if cases resume shooting up. Regardless, deaths should be very low.

The rate of growth of positive tests has also been starting to slow, which implies a 'peak' coming soon. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, particularly as we seem to be seeing distinct ripples across the country, so we may see a sustained 'peak' as different areas experience the same trajectory at different times. I think you're also right in that we won't see drastic changes in trajectory from the changes on the 19th

I was trying to do some back-of-the-fag packet calculations on deaths yesterday. Seems to me based on positive results in the last 28 days and the numbers of deaths _with_ covid, that people with a positive test result are half as likely to die within the next 28 days as that population in general.

Obviously I may have the sums fairly wrong, and the disease is running rampant through children who generally aren't in the habit of dying much anyway. You've got to question the value of the raw metric though, if we're labelling it as "Covid deaths" and it's actually telling us that almost all of them probably died of something else.

As alluded to this further up, but high rates among children should in theory peak by default of schools breaking up imminently for summer.

 

[Furryanimal]

So yesterday Wales announced the lifting of virtually all remaining restrictions on August 7th(capacity crowds,the start of the football season.Not a coincidence).
But it was confirmed masks would remain compulsory on public transport.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Some of the things you describe were definitely problems two years ago. Mental health awareness has not been set back 20 years and nor is it being stigmatised as selfish, I'd say awareness now is more than it has ever been. Of course there was fear mongering and guilt tripping 2 years ago.

This post is what I'm getting at really, you're looking at life in 2019 through rose-tinted spectacles. Perhaps the pandemic has 'set things off', but all of the problems you mention were there beforehand. The panic buying which went on just before the first lockdown started shows that there was a selfish mindset amongst a lot of people before the pandemic started.

In reference to another post, to suggest we could 'do what we wanted' in 2019 is also false and exaggerating.

What I meant by “do what we wanted” is the fact that we could go to a pub without booking a table just to have a pint or check in, I never meant we could have a free for all, you’re just being pedantic.

I’m not looking at 2019 with rose tinted glasses, that’s just your incorrect opinion, you can’t tell me that 2020/21 is so much better than 2019, unless you’re pro restriction/lockdown of course.

In terms of mental health, there’s literally been little mention of mental health issues since this began, I volunteer with a mental health charity and I know what I’m talking about when I say that the conversation regarding mental health, has been set back by whole years, in the last few years up to Covid there was regular awareness made about mental health, and I’ve not seen that recently, it’s all about Covid and Long Covid now.

Of course there has always been selfishness, but I don’t recall people panic buying before 2020…

 

[Failed Unit]

The rate of growth of positive tests has also been starting to slow, which implies a 'peak' coming soon. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, particularly as we seem to be seeing distinct ripples across the country, so we may see a sustained 'peak' as different areas experience the same trajectory at different times. I think you're also right in that we won't see drastic changes in trajectory from the changes on the 19th

I suspect Sunday's final will see the biggest peak (coupled with England's good run) - Lots of people watching it with friends in private houses, then going to work etc. but we will see. Scotland's run was blamed on a surge of football fans (again not always in the pub). Not seen any reports about Wales and the Euro's

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So yesterday Wales announced the lifting of virtually all remaining restrictions on August 7th(capacity crowds,the start of the football season.Not a coincidence).
But it was confirmed masks would remain compulsory on public transport.

It'll be interesting on South/North Wales TfW services which cross the border 4 times (after Abergavenny, Gobowen, Wrexham and Chester).
The conductor is going to be busy with announcements.
The awkward bit will be the 15-20 minutes spent inside Wales on a Shrewsbury-Chester service.
Not so difficult with other services/TOCs which only cross the border once.

Looks like even in England, supermarkets will encourage mask-wearing on their premises, and retain distancing measures.

 

[takno]

I suspect Sunday's final will see the biggest peak (coupled with England's good run) - Lots of people watching it with friends in private houses, then going to work etc. but we will see. Scotland's run was blamed on a surge of football fans (again not always in the pub). Not seen any reports about Wales and the Euro's

There was some excitable media reporting about a public health Scotland report. The report itself didn't identify the football as a leading source of infection at all. As with England the overwhelming source of infection has been schools, which is probably why Scotland has more confidently peaked with the earlier start to the holiday up there.

Ultimately the lower levels of contact between children and some degree of endemic equilibrium is likely to cause infections to fall shortly in England. Even if infections don't actually fall in the next couple of weeks, reported infections are likely to fall a lot because children aren't going to be getting twice-weekly tests.

The unusually small number of people watching the match outside their homes won't make a great deal of difference either way

 

[Crossover]

I hate social distancing on LNER. The sooner i can actually get back to buying walk up tickets, being able to get the train when I actually want to travel on, and being free to take a comfort break from the awful seats halfway down the better. Having to share a double seat is a very small price to pay for that convenience and availability

It looks like your wish may have been granted!

LNER - compulsory reservations after July 19th

Am I right in remembering that BR considered this for the ECML in the late 80's?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[takno]

It looks like your wish may have been granted!

LNER - compulsory reservations after July 19th

Am I right in remembering that BR considered this for the ECML in the late 80's?

www.railforums.co.uk

Yes and no. I next need to travel with them on Sunday, and it's likely to be a while before I do it again!

 

[Cowley]

A new thread has been created to reflect the changes being bought in by the government and that’s to be found below.
Thanks everyone.

From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

The Government has laid The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps etc.) (England) (Revocation and Amendment) Regulations 2021 before Parliament. These Regulations do, as expected, revoke all of the English Coronavirus Restrictions Regulations - apart from the: Self-Isolation...

www.railforums.co.uk