Here we go again. Arriva will have looked at the 230 option, and have clearly decided that it is not for them. If issues arise with sections not getting wired as they may have thought then they will have other options to explore before taking on yet another micro-fleet of units. And if cascades are delayed for the same reasons, they can just keep some of the Pacers operating the routes in question until the cascades finally arrive.
It's pretty much well known where the 195/331s will go, with the majority going to operate the new 'Connect' brand. Routes like the Penistone will see any Pacer operations being replaced with 15x, depending on what exactly is cleared to operate them. And if there is a serious shortage of 3-car DMUs, another operator close by might just have a few going spare as their new stock comes on-line. So those 185s could be used to bolster Connect and other routes where they can operate, freeing up other 15xs to cover the remaining routes primarily operated by Pacers.
I seriously doubt having avoided them at the submission of the contract, Arriva would suddenly fall back to the 230 option simply because a few people seem determined to see them operate for Northern no matter what.
I'm not saying that Arriva will take any 230s on. But the history of the railway is full of examples of grand promises (to generate positive headlines) that are watered down a year or two later.
For example the 60x4 coach 185s became 51x3 coach 185s, the double tracked Borders line became single track for long sections, CP5 electrification gets pushed into CP6 or scaled back.
BR were guilty of this - the privatised railway is guilty of this. It happens elsewhere in transport (e.g. proposals for a "guided busway" end up delivering a "bus lane").
So, whilst Arriva came in with a positive tender that promised new stock (331s, 195s), subsequent developments may make 230s more attractive:
Delays in electrifying some Northern routes (331s are great but not much use in Windermere until the wires go up, since they aren't bi-mode)
Delays in electrifying routes elsewhere in the UK impacting upon cascaded stock being available to Northern (e.g. the ScotRail 170s won't leave until the GWR HSTs head north of the border - so that's roughly fifty coaches that Arriva's bid relies upon being available)
Unknown how long upgrades to the ex-BR DMUs will take (to get the 155/ 156/ 158s fit for 1 January 2020 - we don't know how long they will be out of service for and therefore how many will be out of service at one time)
No scope for keeping most Pacers operational beyond 2019 (the ePacer isn't exactly setting the heather on fire, as far as I can see). You're going to need to spend a lot of money on any Pacers you want to keep running beyond 31 December 2019.
There will be hundreds of unwanted EMU carriages in a few years time (Greater Anglia must be getting rid of 500?) but a significant number of the DMUs coming onto the market are going to be single coach 153s - that would cost a lot to upgrade and may not be suitable.
Plenty of Northern routes where the current 75mph DMUs never need to go over 60mph (as previously discussed). Don't rule anything out yet. 230s may not be popular but they would be a lot less toxic than keeping Pacers in operation.
There are examples historically of micro-fleets not being a problem: Leeds-Doncaster having the 3 321s being an obvious one. Also, when does a micro-fleet cease being a micro-fleet?
One of those really annoying bits of penny pinching (not getting enough 333s to replace the three 321/9s too - they may have only needed a couple more 333s given the economies of scale).
I think it partly depends what else in the fleet. I'd say LO's 8 x 172s is more of a micro-fleet than Northern's 7 x 155s because Northern have a larger Sprinter fleet and 155s are compatible with all types of Sprinter.
The LO 172s are presumably restricted to one line, one roster of drivers, no messing about getting route clearance or maintaining traction knowledge beyond that little diesel island.
The Yorkshire 155s can pop up on a lot of different routes over the course of a monthwhich presumably means a lot more traction knowledge etc to keep up.
