The four teams going through (Australia, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Sri Lanka) and the three teams getting eliminated (Afghanistan, England, Scotland) from Pool A are now confirmed, but the order is not confirmed. New Zealand will finish top of Pool A while the next three are yet to fall into place. The three eliminated Pool A teams can also finish in any order, the only thing stopping the Afghanistan-England match from being a playoff for 5th-6th is if Scotland win both of their remaining matches against Sri Lanka and Australia.
There are still theoretically four teams in contention for an early flight home in Pool B, with South Africa, Pakistan and Ireland all on three wins, and the Windies on two.
- The Windies need to win against the UAE to get through, and hope that Ireland lose both their matches (India and Pakistan) or have a huge win over Pakistan to get them through on net run rate.
- If Ireland win or tie one of those matches they will advance, but if they lose both they will only go through if the Windies lose to the UAE.
- Pakistan can drop out if they lose to Ireland, the Windies beat the UAE and the combined margin of those two matches - coincidentally on the same day - is enough to get their NRR lower than that of the Windies. The exact margin of the loss to Ireland which will be 'acceptable' to get them through on NRR will only be known at the conclusion of the UAE-WI match on the same day, about halfway through the Ireland-Pakistan match.
- South Africa is virtually assured of going through, but a freakishly massive loss to the UAE and a freakishly massive win to the West Indies could theoretically see them drop out in the same way that Pakistan could.
Of those four teams, it is most likely that Ireland will drop out if every result goes as expected.
It's still possible, but quite unlikely, that India may not finish on top of Pool B despite currently being a game clear. Any one of the current top four teams could still finish on top if India lose both of their matches.
For the sake of my blood pressure, I won't be watching/reading about England team and management excuses for another 24 hours. Anyone having a punt on Afghanistan v England? Must be short odds now though.
In the interview on the ground after the match, Morgan blamed the short boundaries for tonight's loss (which aren't short, and certainly did not get any longer after the innings break), poor batting (led by who?), some players not performing (but didn't say who would be top of that list) and efforts to improve being unsuccessful for reasons he does not know. A pretty poor performance for the tournament's top seeded team!
I expect that England's performance in the final match will be hampered by every player other than Ali, Anderson, Buttler
and Taylor (EDIT: he got out for 1 tonight, his place is not secure) playing for themselves instead of for the team, while Afghanistan will be at the top of their game.