Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

[hwl]

Just think how much concrete they would have saved as well?

SQRT(0)

 

[och aye]

There's a pretty nice video from the B1M that's come out in the last few days about Crossrail:

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Mayoral elections deferred for a year so Khan will have another 12 months to get it sorted

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269

 

[ijmad]

I don't think Khan's re-election depended on delivering Crossrail. He's 25 points ahead of his nearest rival in the polls.

 

[jayah]

I don't think Khan's re-election depended on delivering Crossrail. He's 25 points ahead of his nearest rival in the polls.

Heavily subsidised bus fares.
Free bus travel for over 60s.
Free travel for over 65s
Free buses for under 11s.

Lots of free stuff.

He will only loose if a rival promises even more free stuff.

 

[Class 170101]

But does the fares freeze therefore have to continue - not exactly something he can afford to I would suggest.

 

[InOban]

He's already said that it won't.

 

[Holden Green]

Hey, remember the May 2019 tube map cover?

 

[Grumpy Git]

Hey, remember the May 2019 tube map cover?
View attachment 75416

It will end up being called the George Line at this rate.

 

[Roger B]

It will end up being called the George Line at this rate.

Love it! Superb one-liner.

 

[HowardGWR]

Mayoral elections deferred for a year so Khan will have another 12 months to get it sorted

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51876269

What possible influence could a local politician such as Khan have on a railway project, the critical path of which is getting signalling software to work?

 

[Tio Terry]

What possible influence could a local politician such as Khan have on a railway project, the critical path of which is getting signalling software to work?

The "Local Politician" who made the decision to purchase Bombardier trains for Crossrail had a massive impact on the projects ability to deliver on time and on cost. Crossrail Ltd had sometime previously decided to buy Siemens signalling systems for the Central Section. The delays incurred by selecting trains with a Bombardier signalling system and then having to interface the two different systems together is the debacle we now have, selecting trains with Siemens signalling would not have presented the same problems. The "Local Politician" was, of course, the Mayor of London. Not Kahn but his predecessor, Johnson.

 

[samuelmorris]

The "Local Politician" who made the decision to purchase Bombardier trains for Crossrail had a massive impact on the projects ability to deliver on time and on cost. Crossrail Ltd had sometime previously decided to buy Siemens signalling systems for the Central Section. The delays incurred by selecting trains with a Bombardier signalling system and then having to interface the two different systems together is the debacle we now have, selecting trains with Siemens signalling would not have presented the same problems. The "Local Politician" was, of course, the Mayor of London. Not Kahn but his predecessor, Johnson.

Although I've made similar statements to that in the past, it has been pointed out to me that the Siemens system in use with Crossrail would have had similar issues even with Siemens rolling stock as it is a new iteration of design that has not yet been used elsewhere.

 

[HowardGWR]

How would Johnson or any other politician have the faintest idea about what was involved in these issues?

 

[Tio Terry]

Although I've made similar statements to that in the past, it has been pointed out to me that the Siemens system in use with Crossrail would have had similar issues even with Siemens rolling stock as it is a new iteration of design that has not yet been used elsewhere.

There may well have been issues, but at least it would all be within the same company and there would not have been the issues surrounding non-disclosure of intellectual property rights to a rival company to overcome. There would also have been a lot less of "it's not in my contract to do that" if it was a single company that could lose face over it, at least they would have had a vested interest in proving to the rest of the world that their systems did integrate without massive problems!

 

[Tio Terry]

How would Johnson or any other politician have the faintest idea about what was involved in these issues?

They wouldn't. Which is why they employ professionals to advise them, but don't always take the advise they are given. Some make politically based decisions, like buying British and waving the flag, only to find out later that they have shot themselves in the foot.

 

[samuelmorris]

I generally agree but more from the point of view of the trains themselves rather than necessarily the integration. An all-Siemens setup may well have saved a fair bit of time, but I think mostly because software remains something Bombardier have disproportionate difficulty with. The 7-car 345s that do not have any of the complex signalling equipment that they will ultimately need for Crossrail ops, were introduced shortly prior to the 707s at SWR - around 2 months beforehand. The 707s were of course more delayed than the first 345s, but both pale in comparison to subsequent Bombardier fleets like the 12-month late 710s and now 20+ month late 720s. Two years after their introduction the MTIN figure for 707s is reliably above 100,000 despite the short stopping services they operate. In terms of failure rate per days in service, they are probably the most reliable trains the UK has ever seen. The 345s on the other hand are languishing between 5000 and 10,000. Borderline acceptable, but vastly below that of their effective Siemens counterparts - I have chosen the 707s specifically because I'm aware 700s and 717s produce far lower figures but also carry out power mode changes which 345s do not. I will also concede that 707s also are only half the length of what 345s ultimately will be, but that alone would not account for 10-30x the reliability score.

One does wonder - what if the 7-car 345s were as reliable as 707s? What effect would that level of reliability have on the pace of the Crossrail rollout? One can only wonder.

 

[Taunton]

How would Johnson or any other politician have the faintest idea about what was involved in these issues?

Quite so. Surely it would have been Hendy's job to guide and advise the Mayor. What a politician may have contributed is considering building the trains in Derby instead of Germany.

I suspect the reason the 707s do so well, just like their generations of predecessors, is running just on the despised (by many here) third rail, instead of 25Kv. Another dependency in my experience is how much effort, or otherwise, the purchaser puts into supervising the builder during construction.

 

[dmncf]

It seems impossible, at least at the time of writing, to tell from Realtime Trains what test trains ran in the west today: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/PDX/2020-03-15/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt
Did any members see testing taking place? Is the test service intended to be as frequent as what's shown on Realtime Trains?

 

[hwl]

The "Local Politician" who made the decision to purchase Bombardier trains for Crossrail had a massive impact on the projects ability to deliver on time and on cost. Crossrail Ltd had sometime previously decided to buy Siemens signalling systems for the Central Section. The delays incurred by selecting trains with a Bombardier signalling system and then having to interface the two different systems together is the debacle we now have, selecting trains with Siemens signalling would not have presented the same problems. The "Local Politician" was, of course, the Mayor of London. Not Kahn but his predecessor, Johnson.

1. There still would have been huge problems - the signalling system software still isn't sorted on the non rolling stock side of things and won't be vaguely sorted for another few months at least

2. Siemens had relatively recently purchased the division than makes the Trainguard MT software from Matra and at the time they got the Crossrail contract hadn't actually used it with any of their own new build or existing rolling stock at that time (and still haven't). A significant amount of the sorting is being done by the the ex-Invensys /Westinghouse (Chippenham) division rather than just ex-Matra near Paris.

3. Siemens withdrew from the Crossrail rolling stock bidding as they couldn't actually build the rollings stock in the required time frame and had bet everything on the Thameslink requirements and Desiro City design being similar enough to also win Crossrail. The Crossrail requirements had moved on so Siemens would have had to redesign to win the technical criteria. They tried to push Krefeld (late 1890's tram factory) too hard and ran into problems on other stock built there (e.g. Eurostar Velaros)

4. Siemens potential losses on the signalling and communications contracts (they bought a UK firm just to help get the contract who then could do the work in the silly Crossrail time scales and even more so after the other over runs and managed to install "non-leaky" leaky feeder cables in the tunnels so no working cab to signal box voice comms for ages) are multiples of the contract amount.

5. Hong Kong is having issues with the same Siemens TrainguardMT software with their equivalent of Crossrail (no Bombardier involvement). Similar delays

6. Trainguard MT was apparently a tried and tested product but had only been used with Crossrail (rather than Paris metro) length trains at 16tph, some of the functionality had yet to be developed and Crossrail found safety critical issues in the code which had been used in all previous installations.

7. One small crunch due to coding issues in HK.

 

[JN114]

It seems impossible, at least at the time of writing, to tell from Realtime Trains what test trains ran in the west today: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/detailed/PDX/2020-03-15/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt
Did any members see testing taking place? Is the test service intended to be as frequent as what's shown on Realtime Trains?

There are test trains running right now, between Acton Main Line through the transition and into the sewer. Watching them on our industry-equivalent of OTT maps

 

[hwl]

I generally agree but more from the point of view of the trains themselves rather than necessarily the integration. An all-Siemens setup may well have saved a fair bit of time, but I think mostly because software remains something Bombardier have disproportionate difficulty with. The 7-car 345s that do not have any of the complex signalling equipment that they will ultimately need for Crossrail ops, were introduced shortly prior to the 707s at SWR - around 2 months beforehand. The 707s were of course more delayed than the first 345s, but both pale in comparison to subsequent Bombardier fleets like the 12-month late 710s and now 20+ month late 720s. Two years after their introduction the MTIN figure for 707s is reliably above 100,000 despite the short stopping services they operate. In terms of failure rate per days in service, they are probably the most reliable trains the UK has ever seen. The 345s on the other hand are languishing between 5000 and 10,000. Borderline acceptable, but vastly below that of their effective Siemens counterparts - I have chosen the 707s specifically because I'm aware 700s and 717s produce far lower figures but also carry out power mode changes which 345s do not. I will also concede that 707s also are only half the length of what 345s ultimately will be, but that alone would not account for 10-30x the reliability score.

One does wonder - what if the 7-car 345s were as reliable as 707s? What effect would that level of reliability have on the pace of the Crossrail rollout? One can only wonder.

1. 345s, 700s and 717s all have one common feature - ETCS being the core signalling system with other being subservient to it. A big change from what went before.

2. Have a look at DPI (delay per incident) figure as well as MTIN. Bombardier's average is lower than Siemens. When you combine the 2 and train mileage the picture is interesting. MTIN isn't everything. Low DPI helps reduce reactionary delays.

3. 345 7car software development stopped ages ago and hence no huge improvement in reliability as it isn't being worked on.

4. The 700 MTIN target is around 40k and is miles off. ... but getting better with software drops.

5. Everything non needs huge amount son on route running to help get the software sorted.

 

[samuelmorris]

3. Siemens withdrew from the Crossrail rolling stock bidding as they couldn't actually build the rollings stock in the required time frame and had bet everything on the Thameslink requirements and Desiro City design being similar enough to also win Crossrail. The Crossrail requirements had moved on so Siemens would have had to redesign to win the technical criteria. They tried to push Krefeld (late 1890's tram factory) too hard and ran into problems on other stock built there (e.g. Eurostar Velaros)

An important point, even though unknowingly at the time, it ultimately didn't matter. It wasn't obvious the Bombardier trains would be delayed by software issues until well into the period when all the other infrastructure issues had already started. The 345s themselves weren't really that late at all.

1. 345s, 700s and 717s all have one common feature - ETCS being the core signalling system with other being subservient to it. A big change from what went before.

and if that's the primary reason for the difference it's terrifying. The difference in performance is vast. However, to my knowledge, the 7-car 345s don't yet have ETCS do they?

2. Have a look at DPI (delay per incident) figure as well as MTIN. Bombardier's average is lower than Siemens. When you combine the 2 and train mileage the picture is interesting. MTIN isn't everything. Low DPI helps reduce reactionary delays.

Of course but if one fleet has software reliability issues the other fleet doesn't have, the only TINs for the other fleet will be serious faults that take time to resolve rather than just rebooting the train. I totally understand your point here but unless the TIN count * DPI figure is similar, which I don't believe to be the case, then I don't think it's all that relevant.

 

[hwl]

An important point, even though unknowingly at the time, it ultimately didn't matter. It wasn't obvious the Bombardier trains would be delayed by software issues until well into the period when all the other infrastructure issues had already started. The 345s themselves weren't really that late at all.


and if that's the primary reason for the difference it's terrifying. The difference in performance is vast. However, to my knowledge, the 7-car 345s don't yet have ETCS do they?


Of course but if one fleet has software reliability issues the other fleet doesn't have, the only TINs for the other fleet will be serious faults that take time to resolve rather than just rebooting the train. I totally understand your point here but unless the TIN count * DPI figure is similar, which I don't believe to be the case, then I don't think it's all that relevant.

Crossrail were pretty clueless on systems integration generally and seemed to assume it would happen by magic! The current delay is somewhat putting time that was needed into the programme that they didn't in the first place (see quite a few of the same people on JLE in late 1990s, they ended up fitting manual signalling and letting LU resignal later!).

A few quick numbers:
DPI (decimal mins) - MTIN
Electrostar All - 12.9 - 50k
Electrostar Mk1 - 15.4 - 33k
Electrostar Mk2 - 9.6 - 73k

Aventra 10.7 - 3.5k

Desiro - 22.5 - 54k

Desiro City 11.7 - 33k

 

[PG]

I suspect the reason the 707s do so well, just like their generations of predecessors, is running just on the despised (by many here) third rail, instead of 25Kv.

So why are third rail trains more reliable than 25Kv trains? IIRC modern third rail trains use AC motors rather than DC as the older ex Southern region slammers did.

 

[JN114]

I suspect the reason the 707s do so well, just like their generations of predecessors, is running just on the despised (by many here) third rail, instead of 25Kv.

I suspect that’s a causation fallacy

 

[samuelmorris]

Crossrail were pretty clueless on systems integration generally and seemed to assume it would happen by magic! The current delay is somewhat putting time that was needed into the programme that they didn't in the first place (see quite a few of the same people on JLE in late 1990s, they ended up fitting manual signalling and letting LU resignal later!).

A few quick numbers:
DPI (decimal mins) - MTIN
Electrostar All - 12.9 - 50k
Electrostar Mk1 - 15.4 - 33k
Electrostar Mk2 - 9.6 - 73k

Aventra 10.7 - 3.5k

Desiro - 22.5 - 54k

Desiro City 11.7 - 33k

Thanks for supplying the DPI data - so the Desiro City is almost identical to the Aventra's anyway then. I suspect if you took just the 707s with their much higher MTIN, the DPI figure would look more like that of the Desiro UK instead. Either way, double the DPI does little to counteract 10-20x the MTIN!

I suspect that’s a causation fallacy

The post you're quoting seems to have disappeared but indeed, all Desiro UK classes (except the 360/2) had very high scores, AC or DC. DC is nowt to do with it, simply that 707s aren't incumbered with the various technologies the 700s/717s have.

 

[HowardGWR]

This is very interesting although I do not pretend to understand all of it, thanks. The reason I wrote against the idea of politicians being influential in these matters is borne out by the postings above. I am a retired ex computer project leader and and soon as someone tells me that there are problems at low level code of software, I blanch. I don't know how much high level package code can be used in these signalling projects but I get the impression that 'not much' is the present state of the art. If so,this is a huge risk to the project and one is sometimes reliant on perhaps a very scarce availability of expertise at that level. In very old-fashioned jargon, it's the difference between machine code, Assembler and Cobol coding (if you like).

 

[mmh]

The Financial Times reports that TFL are seeking loan renegotiation to raise an extra £650 million.

Sadiq Khan is seeking to renegotiate £2bn of existing loans with the government in order to borrow an extra £650m to deal with fresh cost overruns on London’s delayed Crossrail line.

The capital’s mayor told the Financial Times that the city authorities were locked in talks with central government on how to cover the extra financial hit to Transport for London caused by the failure to deliver the project on time.

The budget for the 73-mile, east-west London rail line was originally put at £14.8bn in 2010 but had reached £17.6bn by December 2018 and now stands at £18.25bn.

Full article is at https://amp.ft.com/content/89160500-6537-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

 

[hwl]

Thanks for supplying the DPI data - so the Desiro City is almost identical to the Aventra's anyway then. I suspect if you took just the 707s with their much higher MTIN, the DPI figure would look more like that of the Desiro UK instead. Either way, double the DPI does little to counteract 10-20x the MTIN!

When the ETCS /EVC based system issues get sorted (see step changes in 700 MTIN with new soft drops as batches of issues are sorted).

The time and location of failure can have quite a big effect on overall disruptiveness.

Most Desiros are on maintenance contracts and Siemens quibble a lot more about cause (also see SWR Holden report) so nothing is quite comparable