Crossrail opening delayed until sometime between October 2020 and March 2021

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by gavin, 31 Aug 2018.

  1. 700007

    700007 Established Member

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    But this testing is different to the testing you are referring to. When new trains are tested, majority of it centres around the actual trains and whether it can cope in the environments it is planned to - not much in most cases is about infrastructure for the most of it unless you factor in stuff like signal interference.

    All Crossrail testing is related to testing the brand new trains, signals, tracks and stations - every brick laid, every bolt drilled and every cable mounted is going to be rigorously tested to check it is safe and can operate.

    Unfortunately that brings no benefits to TfL or Crossrail opening up the same station just downstairs. It would increase operating costs in the short term if anything and would not change revenue as it is the same passengers and connections offered.

    It is also not in TfL's interests quite bluntly if Greater Anglia cannot improve their services as a result of delays to Crossrail. TfL, like most other companies, only care about their own balance sheet and objectives and will not lose sleep about disrupting others'.
     
  2. 700007

    700007 Established Member

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    I had too also known this quite some time before it was announced.
     
  3. AM9

    AM9 Established Member

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    All that does is ramp up the costs, slow down the completion of the core from Liverpool St eastwards, and create more confusion for some passengers, - especially in times of disruption.
     
  4. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    They actually get the majority of additional revenue just from running stage 5a from Paddington to Reading (and more Heathrow T4 when they can use the 345s in the Heathrow Tunnels). The second (minority) chunk of additional revenue is Paddington - Abbey Wood. Joining up both GEML and GWML services to the core is low single digit % additional revenue.

    In some case opening the core loses TfL money e.g. Thameslink MML to Canary Wharf commuters where they change to Jubilee at West Hampstead (Z2 interchange) currently but will change to Crossrail at Farringdon in the future (Z1 interchange) so GTR get the big Z1-Z2 fare increment.

    The Testing required is often a prerequisite to any core running. This isn't about testing new trains for fault free running, this is about testing besting the infrastructure and software in situ. No test completion = no running i.e. no testing along side till the minimum functionality requirements are met if they decide to split delivery
     
  5. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    Abbey Wood - Canary Wharf also avoid having to pay penalties to Canary Wharf group from 2021 if there aren't services running!
     
  6. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    It was fairly obvious from Christmas '16 - New Year '17 onwards that things were so behind it was always going to end up in delayed opening.
    The contract financials from mid 2016 onwards are also interesting in that billing for planned work was behind schedule but billing totals overall were about right because of all the variations coming in. That can only go on for so long before the bills for the delayed planned works come in (followed by all the extra variations).

    Crossrail were quoting X% completion in reports, unfortunately the reality was the total wasn't "100%" but "115%" in reality. 92% quoted in July vs reality of a rebased 92/115 = 80%...

    It turns out that some of the 2010-11 value engineering /cost cutting actually did neither.
     
  7. FelixtheCat

    FelixtheCat Established Member

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    I don't understand the proposals on this forum to open little bits of CrossRail by "just installing a set of points at Custom House" or whereever. There is absolutely no point diverting resources to short-term builds, thus taking resources from completing the main project meaning the whole thing opens later than it could have done.
     
  8. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    Agreed - though Custom House is the only place you wouldn't need to install anything as it has 3 sets already: trailing and facing to the west and trailing to the east
     
  9. MarlowDonkey

    MarlowDonkey Member

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    The Guardian now has a report that it might not even make 2021.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ld-be-delayed-beyond-2021-target-admits-chief

     
  10. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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  11. jfowkes

    jfowkes Member

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    I read "beyond 2021 target" as "beyond the target in the year 2021" and therefore "beyond March 2021", so still within the year 2021.
     
  12. Bald Rick

    Bald Rick Established Member

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    Value Management and Value Engineering never realises savings once you are in construction of the things you apply it to.
     
  13. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    Yep you always end up paying more later but enough people reckon they will have moved on by the time reality strikes. ( and got the credit for miraculous savings)

    Some... because I'm not sure reality has struck in all cases yet!
     
  14. colchesterken

    colchesterken Member

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    I assume this will delay the platform 18 withdrawal at Liv st. In that case will the remaining cl315 be replaced by more shortened 345 s. It seems a shame to keep shiny new toys in store when they could be used
     
  15. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    Don't worry they extended the lease on enough 315s to cover several years ago.
    The problem is that you need enough units to enable the 7 car units to be lengthened en mass as the western services have swapped to 345s and presumably the Paddington - Abbey Wood services my have started.
     
  16. PR1Berske

    PR1Berske Established Member

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    Timeline of delays and possible future timeframe from the Diamond Geezer website:

    Source:.
    http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/04/later-and-later-and-later.html?m=1

     
  17. jayah

    jayah Established Member

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    It is very banal reading:

    Risk / Issue - we need to finish the infrastructure.
    Mitigation - we need to prioritise programme wide activity to err... finish the infrastructure.
    Status - Red
    What happens if we miss target - there is no infrastructure.
     
  18. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    You can't prioritise everything though!
     
  19. 317 forever

    317 forever Member

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    I think it was a similar story with the Jubilee Line extension. The eastern end opened initially from Stratford to North Greenwich and progressively extended westbound, until it finally merged with the established Jubilee Line service (albeit with the section from Green Park to Charing Cross closing).
     
  20. Hadders

    Hadders Established Member

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    That’s exactly what happened. Westminster was the JLE’s Bond Street, opening later than the rest of the stations.

    There ended up being an immovable deadline for the opening of the JLE as it was the centrepiece of transport arrangements for the Millennium Celebrations at the Dome.
     
  21. ForTheLoveOf

    ForTheLoveOf Established Member

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    Passengers using the current GWR Electrostar Reading stoppers will no doubt be severely disappointed by most of the changes brought by the change to TfL Rail. Non-season ticket holders will receive an enormously lower amount of compensation for delays if they dare to extend their journey beyond the contactless area, this being calculated at the miserly NRCoT mandated 50% minimum for 1 hour with an "entirely out of the rail industry's control" exemption. And even if they stay within the contactless area, it's still only a 30 minute exempted policy. This is a massive step down from the current 15 minute Delay Repay scheme they are currently able to enjoy.

    Not to mention the substantial downgrade in the comfort, onboard facilities and number of seats offered by the rolling stock, and the considerably more onerous conditions and Byelaws for passengers. And all this without a hint of the benefits of the takeover (an integrated cross-London service), let alone the improvements that other rolling stock renewal schemes (e.g. Thameslink) have offered to offset the downsides.

    I'm certainly very glad my local station isn't at risk of being commandeered by TfL. Unless and until they work on the above detractors (quite ignoring the political nonsense that comes from TfL being hamstrung by a total loss of grant) I will be heavily against any further expansion of TfL Rail.
     
  22. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    One key difference with the JLE was that they broadcast quite early that the original opening date was unrealistic.

    The concerning aspect to Crossrail is not so much that it's late, but the fact that the management surrounding this lateness has been shambolic, and quite possibly positively deceitful. No Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, in JLE days of course!
     
  23. Hadders

    Hadders Established Member

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    Good point. I do remember that there were 3 years (I think) of very negative media coverage about the delays and cost overrun. I suspect it would've take them even longer were it not for 31 December 1999 and the Millennium Celebrations becoming an immovable deadline. In the end didn't the final bit between Green Park and Waterloo open, to much relief, on something like 21st December 1999, with Westminster Station following a few days later?
     
  24. Goldfish62

    Goldfish62 Established Member

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    Indeed, no TfL or Mayor back then and London Underground was a government-owned organisation. TfL, increasingly under successive mayors, has turned into a massive spin machine pumping out "positive" news.
     
  25. evergreenadam

    evergreenadam Member

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    Presumably we do not yet know what the now promised initial 12tph will consist of or over which parts of the line it will operate.
     
  26. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    The Crossrail Press release linked to on the previous page on Thursday evening says Paddington - Abbey Wood.
     
  27. Geswedey

    Geswedey Member

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    Perhaps by the time it opens it could accurately be called the LATE Elizabeth Line, on a serious note I think the planned name is an now an embarrassment
     
  28. nickswift99

    nickswift99 Member

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    There is a risk that by the time the line is open the reigning monarch may be called Charles.
     
  29. Class 170101

    Class 170101 Established Member

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    No diference to the Jubilee line that opened in 1979. It was meant to open in 1977 for the Queen's Silver Jubilee, hence its colour on the tube map.
     
  30. matthewmacleod

    matthewmacleod Member

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    I'd say the worry isn't so much "there won't be enough 315s", but that it's now almost physically impossible to board 315s at stations like Ilford, Forest Gate, Maryland etc. during the morning peak. The 345s are so much better at swallowing a crowd.

    That said, as someone who lives near Forest Gate and works out near Hayes and Harlington once a week… I just want anything to open as soon as possible.
     

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