DfT Feb 25th (2014) meeting on Hull-Selby electrification

[LNW-GW Joint]

Do you mean CP5 there (both occurrences)?

I do indeed - getting ahead of myself.
Corrected in the original.

 

[IanXC]

It has also appointed its route electrification contractors - for the north east it's Carillion Powerlines, although there is no contract yet for TP electrification.

Contractors have been appointed by NR route rather than project. Carillion Powerlines are appointed for LNE and Scotland. NR's LNE route starts near Stalybridge, so LNW are responsible for west of there, and LNE for east.

Unless it is all private money and separate resources, it's difficult to see this scheme leapfrogging the others into CP6.

The project is indeed private money, and while given the work in the LNE/Scotland contract its not crazy to think Carillion Powerlines could do it, the consortium includes Amey. The work is also to be done outside NR's scheduled programme. The idea being the consortium undertake construction and then hand the completed work over the Network Rail for ongoing operation and maintenance. (http://www.hulltrains.co.uk/about-us/news/2013/03/electrification/)

I think its interesting how many players are going to todays meeting, and how many times it has been delayed. We will see!
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A delegation of MPs, city councillors and business leaders have concluded a “positive” meeting with Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin.

The meeting, held at the Department for Transport (DfT) in London this morning, was to discuss ambitious proposals by First Hull Trains to electrify the railway lines in and out of Hull.

Speaking as he left the meeting, Hull West and Hessle MP Alan Johnson, who led the lobby, said he was hopeful the Government would endorse the scheme in the Budget in March.

Mr Johnson said: “It was a very positive meeting. This was not a meeting with a Secretary of State who was looking to lower our expectations.

“I felt that this was a Secretary of State who was looking to save up any announcement until the appropriate time, which was not today.

“However, I am hopeful that we will get an announcement in the Budget.

“The question is not about whether this scheme gets done. It will get the go-ahead.

http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/MPs-...rt-Secretary/story-20697582-detail/story.html

Sounds like a victim of the political timetable!

 

[HSTEd]

That it will be outside NRs existing programme sort of destroys that argument that Network Rail cannot electrify any faster.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing (or at least I'm not) that Network Rail couldn't electrify faster, simply that they cannot electrify faster without increased spending which seems unlikely to be forthcoming. If you have enough money to throw at them I'm sure NR would be happy to wire up another 1000 miles in the coming control period...

 

[YorkshireBear]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing (or at least I'm not) that Network Rail couldn't electrify faster, simply that they cannot electrify faster without increased spending which seems unlikely to be forthcoming. If you have enough money to throw at them I'm sure NR would be happy to wire up another 1000 miles in the coming control period...

Quite, i am arguing we should avoid a boom and bust electrification.

 

[westv]

I just get the feeling they were all fobbed off with platitudes. I get the same feeling about the Siemen's deal for Hull that has been "just about to be signed" for about 3 years now.

 

[HSTEd]

Quite, i am arguing we should avoid a boom and bust electrification.

Boom and bust implies that the programme will terminate rapidly.

I would rather have a programme that was drastically accelerated and continued until the job is done, as in a completely electrified railway.
Doing it now rather than later allows the benefits to be enjoyed sooner - and even doubling the rate would still leave 20-30 years of work ahead.

 

[YorkshireBear]

It is unsustainable.... We do not have the staff or want the staff to then make them redundant when it is done.

 

[HSTEd]

It is unsustainable.... We do not have the staff or want the staff to then make them redundant when it is done.

By that logic you would want to extend the project for as long as possible, which means you should be against significant expansions of the committed programme.

Why does it matter if the business of wiring existing routes goes bust if it occurs after all routes have been wired?

 

[IrishDave]

Why does it matter if the business of wiring existing routes goes bust if it occurs after all routes have been wired?

Because even once everything's wired we'll still need engineers to maintain the wires (and perhaps go through a rolling decades-long replacement programme). Remember what happened over Christmas 2007, when Rugby, Liverpool Street and Glasgow were all undergoing major remodelling projects, all of which ran late because we didn't have enough OHLE engineers!

Keeping a small handful of teams going for a couple of decades wiring lines in turn is much better than training up lots and lots of people (there certainly aren't enough engineers at the moment to cope with any more of an increase) for a short-term wiring "burst", only to lay them off again when we're done.

 

[YorkshireBear]

It is a basic principle... No not extend as long as possible extend at a reasonable rate so the total amount of OHLE engineers stays the same with them transferring to maintenance and renewal upon completion. Rather than loads of OHLE engineers then sacking 75% of them because we don't need as many to do maintenance and renewals. It is something that NR and their head of electrification is well aware of therefore we have the current schemes.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Keeping a small handful of teams going for a couple of decades wiring lines in turn is much better than training up lots and lots of people (there certainly aren't enough engineers at the moment to cope with any more of an increase) for a short-term wiring "burst", only to lay them off again when we're done.

I agree to a certain extent. Without going over the past this was the mistake made from circa 1991 onwards. Nothing drastic, but you had a team of expertsie together. If they had continued electrification even on a slower pace it would have been wonderful. I peronally (since they were in Edinburgh at the time) have done Edin-Glasgo QS via Falkirk High and then come back back and done Leeds -York (so you could have run Leeds Glasgow-Edin etc) but also made a start on Trans-Pennine.

Etc. Nice and steady pace is what is needed. Unfortunately politics and General Elections get in the way.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I agree to a certain extent. Without going over the past this was the mistake made from circa 1991 onwards. Nothing drastic, but you had a team of expertsie together. If they had continued electrification even on a slower pace it would have been wonderful. I peronally (since they were in Edinburgh at the time) have done Edin-Glasgo QS via Falkirk High and then come back back and done Leeds -York (so you could have run Leeds Glasgow-Edin etc) but also made a start on Trans-Pennine.

Etc. Nice and steady pace is what is needed. Unfortunately politics and General Elections get in the way.

I hope to god that mistake is not repeated again. Fortunately the DfT seem to be in tune now.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Etc. Nice and steady pace is what is needed. Unfortunately politics and General Elections get in the way.

The railway didn't help itself in the 90s and well into the last decade.
Nobody wanted electrification, not the TOCs, not even Railtrack or NR.
Even the well-regarded John Armitt once said electrification was "just another interface to go wrong".
There's still a way to go before the programme delivers significant benefits.

 

[HSTEd]

It is a basic principle... No not extend as long as possible extend at a reasonable rate so the total amount of OHLE engineers stays the same with them transferring to maintenance and renewal upon completion. Rather than loads of OHLE engineers then sacking 75% of them because we don't need as many to do maintenance and renewals. It is something that NR and their head of electrification is well aware of therefore we have the current schemes.

But that means you would never finish, since the numbers of engineers available for new projects would drop as time went on. You would asymptopically approach completion but never reach it.
Large scale layoffs are inevitable.

The cost of training OLE engineers and labourers is neglible compared to the cost of the work they will undertake. Training more is unlikely to increase the cost of a £20bn+ scheme significantly.
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Because even once everything's wired we'll still need engineers to maintain the wires (and perhaps go through a rolling decades-long replacement programme). Remember what happened over Christmas 2007, when Rugby, Liverpool Street and Glasgow were all undergoing major remodelling projects, all of which ran late because we didn't have enough OHLE engineers!

Then perhaps we should train more engineers?
Having more engineers now does not reduce the number available for renewals in the future. The opposite in fact.

Keeping a small handful of teams going for a couple of decades wiring lines in turn is much better than training up lots and lots of people (there certainly aren't enough engineers at the moment to cope with any more of an increase) for a short-term wiring "burst", only to lay them off again when we're done.

The burst would last a decade or more. So it is not as if we would dump them after six months. It would also improve the balance of payments in the long run by generating a large base of marketeable expertise.

 

[YorkshireBear]

But that means you would never finish, since the numbers of engineers available for new projects would drop as time went on. You would asymptopically approach completion but never reach it.
Large scale layoffs are inevitable.

No it doesn't. Why would you transfer everyone before it is done? You are looking at very statistically.... Also include natural wastage in the jobs too.

 

[IanXC]

On the plus side for this scheme, Will Dunnett has appeared at Hull City Council scrutiny committee:

HOPES of securing the go-ahead for a £94m rail electrification scheme into Hull are now at a "tipping point", according to Hull Trains' boss Will Dunnett.

Speaking at a Hull City Council scrutiny committee, Mr Dunnett said his firm was now waiting for a positive signal from the Government following a series of high-level meetings over the issue. Mr Dunnett said: "We have made good progress in recent months, including holding two meetings with the Secretary of State, both of which were very positive.

"As a result, we were asked to provide some additional information and that is being sent off this week. All the signs still look reasonable. The people at the Department for Transport appear to be supportive, but they need a sign-off from the Treasury. We are still playing a waiting game but we are ahead of the game in terms of other electrification schemes being brought forward."

Mr Dunnett said he was still optimistic a deal could be struck to allow work to start before the end of 2016. He said: "We are now very much at a tipping point. We are just waiting for the Department for Transport to move the scheme forward and agree to it being placed on Network Rail's books."

http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Hook...ication-plan/story-20771420-detail/story.html

However, Look North are reporting Danny Alexander (who visited Hull today) saying that he 'could not guarantee that work could be completed before 2017' as Network Rail have confirmed funding for electrification projects for the next period. From the brief clip it didn't seem he knew anything about the proposal!

 

[Class 170101]

I get the impression from what I read that the buy back of the infrastructure wasn't to happen immediately but this is what seems to be holding it up.

 

[PhilipW]

What chance an announcement in the Budget on Wednesday ?

 

[MidlandMainlie]

What chance an announcement in the Budget on Wednesday ?

Given the Higgins report on HS2 today talks about improving rail services along the Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Hull axis alongside HS2 I would be very surprised if electrification isn't in the Budget on Wednesday.

 

[westv]

Given the Higgins report on HS2 today talks about improving rail services along the Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Hull axis alongside HS2 I would be very surprised if electrification isn't in the Budget on Wednesday.

No doubt they'll announce a 2 year consultation with work to commence 24 months after that.
On a serious note, are there actually likely to be any speed gains Hull to London if this project ever gets off the groun?

 

[YorkshireBear]

No doubt they'll announce a 2 year consultation with work to commence 24 months after that.
On a serious note, are there actually likely to be any speed gains Hull to London if this project ever gets off the groun?

I think some of the speed gains would be dependant on LC removal and signalling improvements rather than Electrification. Although there would be some no doubt.

 

[IanXC]

What chance an announcement in the Budget on Wednesday ?

I'm inclined to think if the Hull Trains proposal is to be approved now is the time.
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I think some of the speed gains would be dependant on LC removal and signalling improvements rather than Electrification. Although there would be some no doubt.

I've not seen anything about level crossings. I guess the thing to remember is how straight the route is (the speed limits are already not bad) and how many stops there are. I'm not sure of the figure but HT have talked about a significant reduction in their journey times but presumably thay includes gains on the ECML proper.

 

[westv]

What is the general speed limit now?

 

[PhilipW]

Oh dear. More talking.......
http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Budg...ication-link/story-20824264-detail/story.html

.. and more talking .... and more talking.

 

[westv]

Oh dear. More talking.......
http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Budg...ication-link/story-20824264-detail/story.html

.. and more talking .... and more talking.

Just as I thought. They were all just fobbed off with platitudes at the meeting.

 

[PhilipW]

So nothing in the budget.

What on earth is there left to talk about ? Nothing probably.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

So nothing in the budget.

What on earth is there left to talk about ? Nothing probably.

Just get it done - it will be announced before the May 2015 General Election - trust me -pure politics

 

[IanXC]

So nothing in the budget.

What on earth is there left to talk about ? Nothing probably.

My understanding is that the part taking time is the price and mechanism for handing the constructed infrastructure over to Network Rail.

 

[Hophead]

So nothing in the budget.

What on earth is there left to talk about ? Nothing probably.

Transport Questions in the house tomorrow morning - no local members made it through the ballot, but maybe the minister will want to announce some news...

OK, probably not