moggie
Member
It has taken nearly twenty years to get to this point. Railway Safety (remember them?) and then the SRA (remember them?) started to look at ERTMS and develop an ERTMS rollout programme in about 2001, under the management of Mr Waboso. The SRA did recognise the problems that the MoU tries to address and created a budget with a separate funding line for train fitment, but when the SRA was abolished in 2005 and the programme handed over to Network Rail the money was all thrown into the general signalling pot. The SRA did manage to launch the Cambrian early deployment, but that's all that has happened - except Thameslink (see below). One problem is that no manager of a major signalling scheme wants to be first.
Precisely. Snails pace. Cambrian will already be approaching technical obsolescence with the various age / marks of kit employed. I doubt any 'manager' would be embracing the opportunity to carry out any significant alteration to the signalling arrangement there as obtaining compatible extras might involve a bill far greater than the estimated costs. Fortunately (and probably one reason the line was selected as the test bed) there's unlikely to be any demand necessitating such a change.
As for 'being the first'. Someone has to be but as you observe they won't be if we're talking purely ETCS as this now exists. The system employed to deliver ETCS functionalities might be a first of type depending on whoever is awarded contracts but I suspect most (not all) Project Directors wouldn't have a clue whether they were dealing with a first of type anyway being as they will be appointed prior to award of equipment supply contracts. So to them it will be just another challenge to overcome, that is until the problems start compounding.
Crossrail has created its own problems by implementing about the most complex system you could imagine, with CBTC in the core section and transitions to ERTMS for Heathrow Express (and maybe GWML eventually) and to AWS/TPWS for everything else. Thameslink, which picked ERTMS for its core, works already, so citing Crossrail as an ERTMS problem is misleading.
The key problem which is still not solved is that in order for ERTMS to have a business case you have to eliminate the conventional signalling, but that makes the switchover from one to the other very risky. The obvious way to solve that is to put ERTMS in as an overlay, with conventional signals as well - but then it costs more and doesn't deliver capacity benefit unless you do complex things with intermediate blocks. I don't see that the MoU does anything to help that.
Indeed it has but WHO (metaphorically) specified or advised on what Crossrail engineers are now trying to do? I suggest the very same types pushing the ETCS roll out across large parts of the network. One thing is certain. Those that advise and specify are generally nowhere near the job once design, construction and testing of the chosen system starts. It's not their specialism - which is why major projects employing 'novel' technology offerings often end up with dogs breakfast solutions such as Crossrail signalling seen as a whole system.
As for the cost savings. It's all very well stating these are obtained by eliminating conventional signalling but THAT's the reality. You simply cannot ignore the reality of system migration from the conventional arrangement to the new ETCS arrangement on an existing railway, so it is illusionary to pretend otherwise. Just as one cannot avoid stagework and enabling works required to execute large scale conventional signalling projects. You cannot simply wish it away or park it off the balance sheet somewhere convenient. Migrating from one system to another while maintaining train operations has to be done and done effectively with minimal disruption to the service. Crossrail's Heathrow branch is a good example of ineffective system migration planning - late and costly delivery caused by poor execution of system migration from ATP to ETCS. Yet, it is precisely those pushing the 'digital solution' including those in NR who are responsible for effective (on both cost control and maintenance of train service) migration planning enabling ETCS roll out. Another example - ECML. Currently we have Kings Cross resignalling. Much needed system renewal which paves the way for ETCS introduction with the introduction of ETCS compatible equipment BUT, inclusive of lineside colour light signals and the physical structures. So where are the 'savings' here I ask? The answer is there are none. But a much needed signalling renewal has resulted in a system adapted for current train service needs and compatible with future L2 ETCS. But NO savings. Indeed it can be argued significant extra cost of the ETCS requirement compared with conventional signalling renewals without an ETCS component. Of course in reality the costs are spread across many budgets such that the 'signalling costs' exclude significant ETCS components as costs for these are tucked away in other money pots. Yes it's a complex process rolling out whole system ETCS to a working railway but that's why those responsible are paid well to effectively scope, plan specify and manage their project requirements.
Thameslink was a first and was to all intents successfully implemented but is it yet to be employed in daily use at it's full operating capability?
Then take a look at system architecture. About the ONLY component of a conventional signalling schemes avoided by ETCS (migration strategy ignored) is lights on sticks and structures which hold them in the air. Train detection, switch and crossing, level crossing, power, lineside data comms - all common to conventional / ETCS. Interlocking - same. Front end control systems - similar. Communication systems - ditto. BUT, ETCS requires a cubicle full of processing equipment on board each and every train - not cheap. Then there's clearly an augmented system integration and testing regime to undertake. Far more involved than that required for conventional signalling systems which by comparison is negligible. As we've learned system integration is an ongoing sore for Crossrail accountants. Then of course there TMS at the control centre which is usually specified as part of an ETCS solution and augmented train detection to facilitate closing up of trains enabled by ETCS. All at significant cost across the whole ETCS system.
So when one adds up what is saved from conventional, the cost of lights on sticks / gantries offset by added train detection and more routes / MA's for ETCS and then add the rolling stock ETCS kit and all the processes required to validate it's safe operation. I am far from convinced the headline 'savings' at outturn are real. They might be at the estimating stage before a single line of signalling code is written and it might be that costs are 'adjusted' to place them out of the ETCS budget. But let's not kid ourselves that ETCS L2 is the holy grail. L3 might be - it it can be obtained for the cost of train detection architecture.
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