Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

[Ken H]

I seriously doubt people complaining about range is because they want to drive 400 miles+ in one go but the more range you have, the more flexible. My current car does around 400 miles on a tank vs 600-700 miles of the previous one and while I certainly don't drive anywhere near the range of one tank I do still find the shorter 400 mile range irritating at times especially when there's a long diversion or unexpected trip, I have to make sure I'm topped up with petrol in case I can't later. There's a number of trips I've done recently where I could drive and back without needing more petrol but an electric car would need topped up so I'd have to stop somewhere else just to charge (I wouldn't be charging at friend's houses, the puppy breeder etc.) rather than just being able to drive out and back.

So you get back from a longish drive and your car is nearly flat. Then the phone rings and (a) an offspring has missed the last bus home and needs dads taxi or (b) suddenly there is a need to visit the supermarket or (c) elderly parents ring and need assistance. Thats why people like something in reserve and easy top up. I think having people being nervy about having a flat battery will put many off an EV. Not everyone is as organised as some here seem to suggest. Some lead quite random lives.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That activity will be reined in as every EV driver will be creating an audit trail of their charging locations, energy purchased and times. In the event of a moving traffic offence or their involvement in a traffic incident, verifiable evidence of their driving hours will likely be accessed by the authorities.

I very much doubt that. It wouldn't be hard to do it now by ANPR and by fuel station records, and it isn't done.

I have to make sure I'm topped up with petrol in case I can't later

Isn't that just normal, sensible, prudent behaviour? I fill at 1/4 tank minimum and always at the end of a long trip. I never understand why people run to fumes, it is totally unnecessary stress. I don't believe the light has ever been on in my current car.

 

[trebor79]

Just ordered a Kia e-Niro. 280 miles range, they seem pretty efficient so real world 250 miles and some people manage to get over 300 in favourable conditions. Realistically the only time we will need to rapid charge it will be on our annual trip from Norfolk to Cornwall, or to Cardiff to see my brother in law. Other than that I suspect it will be charged at home.
Fingers crossed wife approves of the boot size etc when we are able to test drive on in a month or two, but I think it'll be about right as a family car with two kids. the Niro can't charge as rapidly as some other cars, but on those long journeys we are going to want to stretch out legs for an hour or so anyway, so it's not a big deal. The only downside is that instead of stopping and having a walk at a nature reserve, which is our current habit, we'll be back to godawful service stations.

Until about 6 months ago I was of the mindset that I wasn't ready for an EV until much cheaper and ranges of 400 miles available. But I don't think they are going to get cheaper in the next 5 years (n fact they've got significantly more expensive in the past 12 months, even before the war in Ukraine kicked off, and having rented an iD3 for a few days which has a paltry 150 mile range it just wasn't an issue.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The e-Niro does look an excellent option but for one thing...unfortunately I don't fit. I'd consider something like an e-Berlingo/Rifter/Combo but the range is awful - 120 miles real-world is absolutely terrible when you've got such a huge vehicle to pack batteries into. 180-200 miles real-world is probably the sweet spot.

If I did fit the Niro I'd probably be looking to order one very soon.

I may well be watching closely to see what Ford do with the Tourneo Connect/Courier range and if they can get a better battery capacity into them than PSA has.

a paltry 150 mile range it just wasn't an issue.

It wouldn't be for a runaround, but for long journeys (which I do plenty of, not all are by train) it'd be too low for me to be comfortable. I'd never do 200 miles without a break, but with the present availability of chargers I would say that's the sort of range you need just to be sure you'll be able to find one in time, considering also that many such journeys are for camping where I may not have one available at the destination. I'd want a minimum of 180 real-world, ideally 200.

 

[A0wen]

And that was the issue for me too, when I bought a new car in 2020; The cost of a comparable EV is simply too high. Hopefully prices will come down to a reasonable level.

Good luck with that - car prices have been escalating, probably ahead of inflation for some time. The only reason the motor trade got away with it was (i) company car users aren't as focused on list price as they are CO2 and (ii) private motorists were conned by PCPs. Go back 20 years before PCPs and people had to take out bank loans or use HP for the full amount to buy a new car - now far too many are "buying" on PCP (in reality a glorified rent) and changing their car every 3 years. Because they were only "borrowing" half the value of the car, the repayments on PCPs look very attractive.

Whoever dreamt up PCPs ought to have been strangled at birth.

To prove my point - in 2004 a basic 1.6 LX Ford Focus had a list price of ~ £14k, by 2014 a 1.0 Zetec had a list price of ~ £ 20k. Now, 8 years further on a 1.0 Trend has a list price of ~ £ 24k.

Quite alot of cars saw their list price inflate by quite a significant amount - and that was only sustainable due to PCPs - and it was around 2010 that the use of PCPs overtook the use of HP to buy a car.

 

[trebor79]

The e-Niro does look an excellent option but for one thing...unfortunately I don't fit. I'd consider something like an e-Berlingo/Rifter/Combo but the range is awful - 120 miles real-world is absolutely terrible when you've got such a huge vehicle to pack batteries into. 180-200 miles real-world is probably the sweet spot.

If I did fit the Niro I'd probably be looking to order one very soon.

I may well be watching closely to see what Ford do with the Tourneo Connect/Courier range and if they can get a better battery capacity into them than PSA has.

Yes, there are some dreadful, limited and very expensive in terms of range per £ options on the market. The Honda E is another one - cute little car, but barely 100 miles real world range, and not cheap. Suspect the residual value will be dreadful too which will make them very expensive to own/lease. I can't fathom why Honda bother making them or why people actually buy them

I was tempted by an e-208 or e-2008, but the WLTP ranges aren't very exciting, and all of the Stellantis options seem to be dreadfully inefficient and don't get anything like the WLTP range in the real world. VAG group cars also seem similarly afflicted.
The Korean and Chinese brands seem to have the right mix of real world range/efficiency at the less expensive end of the market, and Tesla, JLR have the upper end sewn up. Everything is an also-ran at the moment, IMO. VAG could be good if they can sort the efficiency - seems they waste lots of energy actively heating the battery for performance reasons - and actually manage to produce any cars which they seem to be incapable of doing at present.

It wouldn't be for a runaround, but for long journeys (which I do plenty of, not all are by train) it'd be too low for me to be comfortable. I'd never do 200 miles without a break, but with the present availability of chargers I would say that's the sort of range you need just to be sure you'll be able to find one in time, considering also that many such journeys are for camping where I may not have one available at the destination. I'd want a minimum of 180 real-world, ideally 200.

I agree, I was only doing about 60 miles a day in the i3, and there were plenty of (free!) rapid chargers in the area of Scotland I was in. I wouldn't buy an i3 as they are too expensive on a "£ per mile of range" basis in my view.

Good luck with that - car prices have been escalating, probably ahead of inflation for some time. The only reason the motor trade got away with it was (i) company car users aren't as focused on list price as they are CO2 and (ii) private motorists were conned by PCPs. Go back 20 years before PCPs and people had to take out bank loans for the full amount to buy a new car - now far too many are "buying" on PCP (in reality a glorified rent) and changing their car every 3 years. Because they were only "borrowing" half the value of the car, the repayments on PCPs look very attractive.

Actually, you borrow and pay interest on the full amount (less deposit), but pay back only a portion of the principle.
Having said I'd never do a PCP, I have this time. Partly because I will have also to replace car No.2 in the not too distant future, I want to keep some capital available as a buffer given the state of the world, and I wonder if second hand prices and a flood of cheap Chinese EVs will change the landscape in the next few years. With the PCP the residual value risk rests with the manufacturer or their finance company - so I can either pay the balloon payment or throw the keys back as appropriate.
Once my wife is working again and we have more money coming in car No.2 will be replaced with a bank loan or straight hire purchase.

I agree that car prices are unlikely to come back down very quickly. With the crazy situation of used costing the same as or more than new, and high residuals "baked in" to a lot of finance deals, too many in the industry would take a bath if there was significant price deflation.

 

[A0wen]

Actually, you borrow and pay interest on the full amount (less deposit), but pay back only a portion of the principle.
Having said I'd never do a PCP, I have this time. Partly because I will have also to replace car No.2 in the not too distant future, I want to keep some capital available as a buffer given the state of the world, and I wonder if second hand prices and a flood of cheap Chinese EVs will change the landscape in the next few years. With the PCP the residual value risk rests with the manufacturer or their finance company - so I can either pay the balloon payment or throw the keys back as appropriate.
Once my wife is working again and we have more money coming in car No.2 will be replaced with a bank loan or straight hire purchase.

I agree that car prices are unlikely to come back down very quickly. With the crazy situation of used costing the same as or more than new, and high residuals "baked in" to a lot of finance deals, too many in the industry would take a bath if there was significant price deflation.

But because of the balloon payment you're not "borrowing and repaying" the full amount - so the amount being "paid back" is being artificially suppressed to keep the monthly payments down.

As it happens we're waiting on delivery of my wife's new car (a Suzuki Vitara) and Suzuki are doing 0% HP for 5 years - when we went to the dealer the first thing I made clear was under no circumstances would I consider a PCP because they are a racket. He didn't even try mentioning it again - I think he knew I'd have walked out if he had. In the event the payments (over 5 years) are only a few pounds more than any 3 year PCP payments would have been, plus we own the car and don't have any of the silly mileage restrictions or return conditions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whoever dreamt up PCPs ought to have been strangled at birth.

With you on that one, I refuse to use them, which is one reason why I tend to buy used so I can use a personal loan (on which I get good rates as I'm a good credit risk, having never defaulted on anything nor forgotten a payment) and have equity at the end.

In essence you're borrowing the hefty depreciation. I prefer not to pay that at all

Yes, there are some dreadful, limited and very expensive in terms of range per £ options on the market. The Honda E is another one - cute little car, but barely 100 miles real world range, and not cheap. Suspect the residual value will be dreadful too which will make them very expensive to own/lease. I can't fathom why Honda bother making them or why people actually buy them

I was tempted by an e-208 or e-2008, but the WLTP ranges aren't very exciting, and all of the Stellantis options seem to be dreadfully inefficient and don't get anything like the WLTP range in the real world. VAG group cars also seem similarly afflicted.
The Korean and Chinese brands seem to have the right mix of real world range/efficiency at the less expensive end of the market, and Tesla, JLR have the upper end sewn up.

I've looked at the MGs and they look good, but I'm also wary of the latest global political situation, and am a little wary that we won't end up sanctioning China in the near future if they decide to have a go at Taiwan, which would mean no supply of parts (I know batteries pretty much all come from over there, but I mean other parts). I think on those grounds I'd rather buy a European or American car for now.

I agree, I was only doing about 60 miles a day in the i3, and there were plenty of (free!) rapid chargers in the area of Scotland I was in. I wouldn't buy an i3 as they are too expensive on a "£ per mile of range" basis in my view.

A runaround in the situation where you have a home charger on your driveway is just about the perfect use-case for a used small-battery Nissan Leaf, to be honest, so you can stick with the old option of buying used runarounds with electric. It's a shame the used EV market is more or less all Leafs, but that's what you get by being first I guess!

 

[A0wen]

With you on that one, I refuse to use them, which is one reason why I tend to buy used so I can use a personal loan (on which I get good rates as I'm a good credit risk, having never defaulted on anything nor forgotten a payment) and have equity at the end.

In essence you're borrowing the hefty depreciation. I prefer not to pay that at all

But one of the problems that PCPs have caused for the used car market is the inflation of retail prices has also been seen on used cars as well.

The chip shortage exacerbated matters because late last year some used car prices were going up by £ 200 a week - I was watching it happen as I was looking for a car myself. But if you say a car has 60% of it's value on 3 years / 50,000 miles - then a car which was £ 14k new would be £ 8,400, whereas a £ 21k car would be £ 12,600.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree that car prices are unlikely to come back down very quickly. With the crazy situation of used costing the same as or more than new, and high residuals "baked in" to a lot of finance deals, too many in the industry would take a bath if there was significant price deflation.

I suspect as with housing the present high general inflation will bring prices down in real terms, but that in "number" terms a family EV will be £30-40K new for the foreseeable.

But one of the problems that PCPs have caused for the used car market is the inflation of retail prices has also been seen on used cars as well.

It's less so PCPs that have caused that, and more scarcity - people are buying used because the waits for new are so long. Some cars are overpriced used, but e.g. I bought my current Kuga in July 2020 for about £13K at 2.5 years old and somewhere around 20K miles (I think it was 18K), and I thought that was pretty decent value.

 

[PeterC]

If it's under 200 miles you'll likely be able to charge at your destination. Like the way providing mains sockets or USBs for charging phones on public transport is the norm now, providing car charging sockets (even trickle-charge ones) at venues and car parks will become the norm.

So far this isn't happening in volume. No amount of wishful thinking about some ideal future will change the issue on the ground now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So far this isn't happening in volume. No amount of wishful thinking about some ideal future will change the issue on the ground now.

It will happen as more people get EVs.

 

[PeterC]

I don't think that the commercial viability of a few day trip destinations is an excuse to slow down the essential programme to decoarbonise private transport.

Nobody said that it was except you misrepresenting my post.

 

[DelayRepay]

There's a number of trips I've done recently where I could drive and back without needing more petrol but an electric car would need topped up so I'd have to stop somewhere else just to charge (I wouldn't be charging at friend's houses, the puppy breeder etc.) rather than just being able to drive out and back.

I understand why you wouldn't charge up at the puppy breeders, but why wouldn't you charge up at a friend's house, assuming they had a suitable charger? I certainly would, and I'd be happy for them to charge at my house too. Obviously you'd want to think about how to cover the cost, if it wasn't a mutual arrangement.

So far this isn't happening in volume. No amount of wishful thinking about some ideal future will change the issue on the ground now.

It will happen as more people get EVs.

It already is happening, there are loads more chargers around now than there were a couple of years ago. Even McDonalds have them now.

 

[Ken H]

I understand why you wouldn't charge up at the puppy breeders, but why wouldn't you charge up at a friend's house, assuming they had a suitable charger? I certainly would, and I'd be happy for them to charge at my house too. Obviously you'd want to think about how to cover the cost, if it wasn't a mutual arrangement.

New etiquete thing. Do you pay a friend for the electric? And do you ask your guest to pay?

 

[DelayRepay]

New etiquete thing. Do you pay a friend for the electric? And do you ask your guest to pay?

I wouldn't ask or expect a friend to pay for using my electric if they were visiting. I don't charge them for petrol if they come by train and I pick them up from the station, and I don't charge overnight guests for hot water if they have a shower!

If I used a friend's electric, I would offer to pay but it would most likely be refused. With most friends it's swings and roundabouts because we spend time at each others homes.

Obviously it depends on the relationship, their financial circumstances, how long I'm there for etc.

There's one friend who lives about 100 miles from me, and a mile from the M1. I used to pass his house quite often when I made a certain work trip, and I'd often call in to see him and have dinner on the way home. Basically he was acting as a cheap motorway service station I'd pay him because otherwise it would feel like I was taking the mick, given he hardly ever visited me.

 

[JohnMcL7]

I understand why you wouldn't charge up at the puppy breeders, but why wouldn't you charge up at a friend's house, assuming they had a suitable charger? I certainly would, and I'd be happy for them to charge at my house too. Obviously you'd want to think about how to cover the cost, if it wasn't a mutual arrangement.

None of my friends have suitable chargers so I'd have to drive a few miles to find a suitable charger, walk/cycle back to my friend's house then do the same to go and get the car back which on top of a long drive and taking time away from seeing my friends there's no way I'd be doing. Even if my friends had chargers it wouldn't be much help when we're meeting up for a walk somewhere and there's no suitable chargers nearby which is usually the case, I'd have to make an extra stop somewhere else. I can certainly understand why some people use electric vehicles but I'm not paying huge amounts of money to buy something that doesn't the job anywhere near as well as my current vehicle.

 

[AM9]

Nobody said that it was except you misrepresenting my post.

I didn't say that your post did, -
I was expressing an opinion.

None of my friends have suitable chargers so I'd have to drive a few miles to find a suitable charger, walk/cycle back to my friend's house then do the same to go and get the car back which on top of a long drive and taking time away from seeing my friends there's no way I'd be doing. Even if my friends had chargers it wouldn't be much help when we're meeting up for a walk somewhere and there's no suitable chargers nearby which is usually the case, I'd have to make an extra stop somewhere else. I can certainly understand why some people use electric vehicles but I'm not paying huge amounts of money to buy something that doesn't the job anywhere near as well as my current vehicle.

Nobody is saying that anybody must change to EVs now, this year or even the next couple of years. The fact is that there will be no new hydrocarbon only powered cars feeding the market from 2030. Most mainstream manufacturers will cease introducing new hydrocarbon only models by 2025. So the industry, and more importantly, support for hydrocarbon only cars will steadily shrink. By the early '30s, the number of chargers will match the demand with suitable provisions for to those without off-street parking. The supply of petrol and diesel will however will contract as the cost of refining and distribution is shared by fewer users, and it will become far more inconvenient to keep ICVs on the road, indeed, probably more difficult than it was a couple of years ago for EV drivers.
These factors combine and EVs will rapidly become the automatic choice for all but the most edge cases of motorists.
This will be without punitive taxation devices to flush reluctant ICV users off the roads.

 

[JohnMcL7]

Nobody is saying that anybody must change to EVs now, this year or even the next couple of years. The fact is that there will be no new hydrocarbon only powered cars feeding the market from 2030. Most mainstream manufacturers will cease introducing new hydrocarbon only models by 2025. So the industry, and more importantly, support for hydrocarbon only cars will steadily shrink. By the early '30s, the number of chargers will match the demand with suitable provisions for to those without off-street parking. The supply of petrol and diesel will however will contract as the cost of refining and distribution is shared by fewer users, and it will become far more inconvenient to keep ICVs on the road, indeed, probably more difficult than it was a couple of years ago for EV drivers.
These factors combine and EVs will rapidly become the automatic choice for all but the most edge cases of motorists.
This will be without punitive taxation devices to flush reluctant ICV users off the roads.

The point I was making was that range is not about driving x number of miles without stopping which seems an incredibly common misconception. I'm well aware and have said as such many times in this thread that a change to electric cars is inevitable in time.

As for nobody is saying to change to electric cars now, I certainly wish that was the case but speaking from experience it definitely isn't. My choice of petrol car is absolutely nothing to do with being reluctant to change (this seems another common misconception) , it's just that's the technology that suits my needs best at the moment in the current market.

 

[johncrossley]

Where is all the infrastructure in Norway, famous for high EV use? I've browsed Oslo and other main towns in Google Street View for several minutes and I can see little evidence of charging infrastructure. That suggests it might not be necessary for high EV penetration.

 

[Mawkie]

Where is all the infrastructure in Norway, famous for high EV use? I've browsed Oslo and other main towns in Google Street View for several minutes and I can see little evidence of charging infrastructure. That suggests it might not be necessary for high EV penetration.

Sorry to keep plugging Fully Charged - but they always seem to answer every question! This video shows the dedicated underground parking for electric cars, complete with charging points for every space.

 

[AM9]

Sorry to keep plugging Fully Charged - but they always seem to answer every question! This video shows the dedicated underground parking for electric cars, complete with charging points for every space.

That will be one of the ways that ICVs are edged out, facilities will be EV only and ICV drivers will have their turn for inadequate parking and refuelling.

 

[StKeverne1497]

To prove my point - in 2004 a basic 1.6 LX Ford Focus had a list price of ~ £14k, by 2014 a 1.0 Zetec had a list price of ~ £ 20k. Now, 8 years further on a 1.0 Trend has a list price of ~ £ 24k.

Totally agree with the point you are making, but it's surprising how compound interest works. According to the Bank of England inflation calculator, £14k in 2004 would be £20½k in 2021 at 2.2% average inflation for that time period (CPI / RPI). In order to get to your £24k in 2022 that interest rate would have been around 3% (if my rusty maths has worked). Yes, car prices are ahead of inflation, but not hugely so, and in the intervening 18 years some expensive kit has become "standard" which will also add to the cost - the first car I ever had with anti-lock brakes and more than two airbags was 18 years or so ago, and they weren't fitted as standard back then, especially at the low-end of the market. My current Dacia Sandero (not exactly a premium brand) has multiple airbags and anti lock brakes, but it also has traction control / ESP, cruise control & speed limiter, parking sensors, a DAB / USB radio with Bluetooth phone connectivity and a Sat Nav (not that I use it) and a "cleaner", more fuel-efficient engine. Its new list price in 2017 (I bought it second-hand) was about the same in cash terms as the car I bought 18 years ago. Yes, it's a smaller car (the other was a Renault Scenic) but that doesn't seem too shabby to be honest.

It's also still true that there is more margin than you might imagine, though in the current situation with cars in short supply there is no incentive for a garage to eat into that margin to win your sale - someone else will be along in a minute who might be more willing to pay.

M.

 

[Bald Rick]

may hotels dont have parking. How will they cope?

On the basis that they cope without any parking now, they’ll be able to cope without EV enabled parking in future.

So you get back from a longish drive and your car is nearly flat. Then the phone rings and (a) an offspring has missed the last bus home and needs dads taxi or (b) suddenly there is a need to visit the supermarket or (c) elderly parents ring and need assistance. Thats why people like something in reserve and easy top up. I think having people being nervy about having a flat battery will put many off an EV. Not everyone is as organised as some here seem to suggest. Some lead quite random lives.

exchange ‘your car is nearly flat’ with ‘the petrol tank is almost empty, and there’s no open petrol staton nearby’.

what’s the difference?

 

[plugwash]

The difference is with a petrol car it's easy to keep something in reserve (petrol cars have significantly larger range than EVs) and easy to top up (empty to full in less than a minuite). So you can easily avoid hitting the "nearly out of fuel" scenario, even if you aren't particularly well organised.

 

[Ken H]

The difference is with a petrol car it's easy to keep something in reserve (petrol cars have significantly larger range than EVs) and easy to top up (empty to full in less than a minuite). So you can easily avoid hitting the "nearly out of fuel" scenario, even if you aren't particularly well organised.

Or you can keep a can in the boot.

 

[NoRoute]

The difference is with a petrol car it's easy to keep something in reserve (petrol cars have significantly larger range than EVs) and easy to top up (empty to full in less than a minuite). So you can easily avoid hitting the "nearly out of fuel" scenario, even if you aren't particularly well organised.

Things change and the world moves on. In the beginning every new technology has some draw backs and problems and people can focus on them and point out the failings compared to the existing mature alternative, but it doesn't matter because some people try them, buy them and over time the technology steadily improves and gradually everyone adopts it and it displaces the old.

The early motorcars weren't very good, they were slow, expensive, dangerous to start with a cranking handle, broke down a lot and used exotic fuels like motor spirit that you could only get from a chemists or a blacksmiths. The steam train, the electric tram and the horse and cart were vastly superior alternatives, it didn't stay that way.

 

[The Ham]

The difference is with a petrol car it's easy to keep something in reserve (petrol cars have significantly larger range than EVs) and easy to top up (empty to full in less than a minuite). So you can easily avoid hitting the "nearly out of fuel" scenario, even if you aren't particularly well organised.

Conversely for the majority of people for the vast majority of travel they do an EV can be fully charged and ready to go with full range at the start of most days at nearly no delay.

That's because 56% of car trips are under 5 miles, so even a car with 100 mile range could make a few such return trips without needing any charging.

 

[Ken H]

Conversely for the majority of people for the vast majority of travel they do an EV can be fully charged and ready to go with full range at the start of most days at nearly no delay.

That's because 56% of car trips are under 5 miles, so even a car with 100 mile range could make a few such return trips without needing any charging.

But people make lots of small trips, then do a long one. Suddenly the car you have isn't capable of part of what you bought it for. And no, I dont want to spend an hour on an M6 services charging my car. I want to get where i am going.

 

[Adam Williams]

But people make lots of small trips, then do a long one. Suddenly the car you have isn't capable of part of what you bought it for. And no, I dont want to spend an hour on an M6 services charging my car. I want to get where i am going.

It's really not as big a deal as people like to make out.

I can do lots of small trips in the space of ~10%-15% battery use which then leaves well over 175 miles of usable range afterwards. The higher capacity battery cars will do more. I daresay you should be taking a break at the M6 after driving for >2.5 hours straight, and I suspect the highway code agrees with me.