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Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

Iskra

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I think it's almost there. The MGs have a 200ish mile range, which is enough for most purposes, and it will improve further.



That needs doing anyway so we can move away from gas heating to electric, and be less dependent on other countries (as demonstrated to be necessary by the Ukraine war).



All used cars are expensive at the moment due to a lack of new ones. But that aside, it will filter through. Batteries, with decent thermal management, will usefully last 10+ years, which is about the same as an ICE car typically lasts before it starts rusting to bits. And after that they won't have zero capacity - a car with say 50 mile range may still be a useful second runaround (most two car families have one that's used for long trips and a smaller one that basically never leaves town), or the batteries can be sold and repurposed as grid storage.
I believe the market will solve points 1 and 3 in time. Point 2 is the most concerning as we simply aren’t getting on with the task with any urgency. I’ve been saying we need more nuclear PS for 20 years now, and they still aren’t getting built in any quantity.
 
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AM9

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2) Can the national grid handle everyone switching en masse to EV’s? I don’t believe it could. To support the move to EV’s a new wave of nuclear power stations will be needed and, if started tomorrow it would be 10 years before we had the amount needed. This is a major obstacle. Buying our electric from France and others is not a sustainable long term strategy.
The switching over to EVs "en masse" will have a small impact on normal loads at National Grid levels, when you consider that there about 32m cars in regular use and less than 2.5m new cars every year. So that means that even if every new car from now is an EV, it will take at least 13 years to switch over 'en masse'. In that same period there will be a great deal of new renewable sources online, so total capacity will easily cope with increasing EV demands.

Energy swaps, (because the interconnectors are bidirectional) is very much part of a long term strategy. Demand for and availability of electricity varies according to weather, industrial activity and maintenance levels of sources, and these different situations frequently complement nations at opposite ends of an interconnector.

3) Affordability. Currently, if you went and bought a used conventional vehicle, you could be on the road for £1000 if you aren’t picky. Current new EV’s are expensive and even 2nd hand ones are generally 5 figures (with diminished range compared to a new one) and if it needs a new battery, that’s a 5 figure outlay too which all EV’s will need eventually too. I don’t see how this technology can be truly relevant until they can be afforded by the masses, and it’s not particularly fair for those that can afford them to lecture those that can’t on the morality of owning a conventional vehicle.[/QUOTE]
It will take a few years into the greater than 10 years for en masse transfer to EVs for early ones to be available at banger prices. In that same period, hydrocarbon bangers will become increasingly rarer and more expensive to own, so anyone who can afford to run an ICV now will the see the benefit of moving over to EVs. There's nothing "unfair" about that.
 

HSTEd

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As has been pointed out continually in this thread, the National Grid are very confident they can support a transition to electric vehicles. You can read more here https://www.nationalgrid.com/storie...ries/can-grid-cope-extra-demand-electric-cars
or if you prefer a more visual form, you can watch the same Graeme Cooper discuss the same issue here

The National Grid figures also don't achieve decarbonisation anything like as rapidly as people in the climate space are talking about.

It is also likely that EV charging will totally collapse the Economy 7 mechanism because summer peak electricity demand will shift to night time.

Also NAtional Grid are highly unlikely to say "we are in no way prepared for this despite knowing its been coming for decades" because that would undermine their story that the current energy system actually functions well.
 

Bald Rick

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1) I don’t believe the technology is quite there yet for them to be that practical in terms of range. I believe however that this obstacle will be overcome in the next few years.

Current EV Range is not an issue for most (if not all) car users. As I have a mentioned previosuly, I have seen Netherlands registered Teslas in the North West Highlands of Scotland. Clearly range wasn’t a issue for them.
also, of all my friends with EVs - 20+ and rising on a monthly basis, not one of them has ever had an issue with range. Of course that population is biased by those who have bought EVs in the knowledge they won’t have a range issue … however I am struggling to think of any of my friends who have bought a new ICE car in the past year.


2) Can the national grid handle everyone switching en masse to EV’s? I don’t believe it could. To support the move to EV’s a new wave of nuclear power stations will be needed and, if started tomorrow it would be 10 years before we had the amount needed. This is a major obstacle. Buying our electric from France and others is not a sustainable long term strategy.

see the discussion a few posts above! The grid couldn’t cope with 30 million new EVs now, but there won’t be 30 million EVs on the road for 20 years. Even in 10 years there will ‘only’ be about 10-15 million, which on average mileage will need the average generative output of the wind farms coming on line by 2026.
 

matacaster

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One reason (among several) is that lot of renewable generation is in Scotland and transmission links between Scotland and the rest of the UK are not able to cope. The traditional 400kV and 275kV links are now supplemented with a Western HVDC link and an Eastern link is also proposed, which will help enormously in bringing electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed (the heavily populated parts of England), and any further surplus could potentially be sent directly to Europe via Norway, instead of England.

Other than using the generation immediately or exporting it, what are the alternatives? One proposal being seriously considered is to use surplus generation to produce "green" Hydrogen which can then either be injected into the gas grid (not always viable as renewable generation facilities are not often near gas pipelines) or stored for later use in combustion engines when the wind isn't blowing, the sun isn't shining or the rain isn't falling.
Using surplus wind energy to fill reservoir above hydro electric dam.
 

Bald Rick

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Using surplus wind energy to fill reservoir above hydro electric dam.

that is pumped storage, and has to be specifically designed as such. Not least because you need a ready supply of fresh water at the bottom of the dam. Look up Dinorwig (Snowdonia), Ben Cruachan and Foyers (both Scotland) for live examples, and Coire Glas (Scotland) for a new project that is in ‘Pre construction’ now.

Even so, you need massive reservoirs at both levels to provide serious amounts of energy storage; far bigger than anything realistically possible in this country. Coire Glas will have the biggest amount of storage, but even then one big wind farm will fill it up in less than a day.

The massive Snowy Hydro project in Australia is more than 10 times the size of Coire Glas; even if there was somewhere in this country to fit it, the capacity would only be enough to keep the country going for 10 hours.
 

Ediswan

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that is pumped storage, and has to be specifically designed as such. Not least because you need a ready supply of fresh water at the bottom of the dam. Look up Dinorwig (Snowdonia), Ben Cruachan and Foyers (both Scotland) for live examples, and Coire Glas (Scotland) for a new project that is in ‘Pre construction’ now.
Don't forget Ffestiniog. It may be modest in size, but it has its place in history.
 

GRALISTAIR

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In case anyone is interested for pumped storage Potential Energy (Joules) = mass x g x h - so mass is fairly easy 1 liter of water is as near as damn it is to swearing 1kg, g = 9.81m.s^-2 ( but for easy calculations I round to 10) and h = height in meters the water drops. How fast you drop this through turbines in seconds multiplied by the above gives the power in watts.
 

HSTEd

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Oh, and the cost. Electricity is currently 4× the price of gas per kWh and has been higher (and lower). Crudely, the price of our gas boiler will be paid back within 18 months or so purely on energy bill savings (very crudely - there are other considerations which mean it's actually a little longer).
In a decarbonisation scenario so much public moeny will have to be spent that energy prices as we understand them will cease to have any meaning.
They would be no functioning private energy market, at least for the first several years.

So electricity and gas pricing today is inconsequential since if decarbonisation actually gets achieved pricing will essentially be set by state fiat regardless.
Also we are already at the point where grid electricity powered resistive heating has similar carbon intensity to gas combustion - from now on subsidising electric heating would be reasonable decarbonisation strategy.


And at the risk of being deleted again for going off topic, insulate, insulate, insulate :)
The problem with insulation is that retrofit of insulation is laborious in the extreme (and we don't have the staffing for this, the labour requirement estimates for retrofit programmes are utterly huge), and new builds are being built at less than 1% of the housing stock per year - the climate issue will be decided one way or another before new construction can significantly change the heating intensity of the housing stock.
Insulation improvements also get hit hard by Jevon's Paradox.

But perhaps we should start a separate thread for this discussion?
 

Bletchleyite

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The problem with insulation is that retrofit of insulation is laborious in the extreme (and we don't have the staffing for this, the labour requirement estimates for retrofit programmes are utterly huge), and new builds are being built at less than 1% of the housing stock per year - the climate issue will be decided one way or another before new construction can significantly change the heating intensity of the housing stock.
Insulation improvements also get hit hard by Jevon's Paradox.

But perhaps we should start a separate thread for this discussion?

Here you go: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/should-we-and-how-can-we-insulate-britain.233370/
 

reddragon

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I'd be very careful. Leafs can suffer from significant battery degradation if there's been any significant use of rapid charging. They are also useless if you have the occassional long journey with lots of issues of very slow charges at service stations due to battery temperature.
There is no thermal management of the battery at all, which is the root cause of these issues.
I drove my LEAF to Portugal. I can confirm that the battery got seriously hot and charging slowed to a crawl. My new MG5 eats up the miles without an issue, 365 miles back from Scotland with one short charging stop.

A most interesting breakdown of considering and owning an EV whether new or second hand. Your thoughts are appreciated.

However, strangely you have done a good job in giving reasons why you should not have an EV at this current time. It all comes down to cost and convenience. In the current climate gives less chance to consider an EV due to cost, battery life and range as yet needs to significantly improve and then add to that charging points whether public or private were are not sufficent in numbers / locations. I am not sure of the 'public' charging costs but I cannot imagine they are cheap? In otherwords you not charge the actual commerical / home electricity rate as the provider would need to add their costs as well as making a profit. How does that compare with the high cost of petrol along with the better range and conveninence of the latter? Is the difference really big between them allowing for the initial high cost of the EV? That is part I am unsure of but initial impression seems to suggest otherwise hence why petrol / diesel cars will remain around for long as possible.

The other factor that comes into this and think this in significant, is the second hand car market as this is huge. Current second hand EV's are few in numbers for starters but those that are available are limited in range along with few charging points. Consequently most people will not initially consider them as they are not viable especially for those people whose income is low as priorities are elsewhere. Their vehicles tend to be at least three years old or more. As things stand until new EV's over come the range and battery performance along with convenient charging points (as well as costs) and this filters down to the second hand market in numbers then purchases will remain slow. Again EV's have got to have a significant impact on the second hand market for everyone to drive EV's and that is the crux of the matter.

Yes this will all change in time I am sure, no choice given government guidelines but I am not sure that 2030 is a realistic target and wont surprise me if this date is extended. However for someone like me (In my 60's), I don't see me ever owing an EV as not economically viable or practicable.
For me personally, new EVs win due to some good prices but long waits, whereas 2nd hand have inflated prices and less capability. I found I could get new for less than 2nd hand based on monthly costs

Yes but not until well into the 2030s, and the underlying reason, not unique to the UK, is a deepening chronic shortage of lithium through and until the end of this decade. The sodium ion battery is not sufficiently mature and the mining projects (mainly in China) take years to start production
There is no 'shortage' of Lithium, just a slow ramp up in mining

Aren't we supposed to have quite a lot in parts of the UK?
Cornwall

Aren't we supposed to have quite a lot in parts of the UK?
Cornwall
Great. Putting a large part of our infrastructure in the hands of a foreign (maybe hostile) government. Super policy.
Oil, Russia & Middle East?

Its a marketing gimmick. Unless you share the car between 3 shifts continuously, how on earth is anyone going to do 65000 miles each year on average? I suspect there will be few people wanting to keep a 10 year old Nissan having done say 20000 miles a year anyway. Look forward to claims from 3 shift taxi drivers though nissan!
There is a million mile Tesla still under warranty!

I have 3 major concerns about moving to EV’s.

1) I don’t believe the technology is quite there yet for them to be that practical in terms of range. I believe however that this obstacle will be overcome in the next few years.

2) Can the national grid handle everyone switching en masse to EV’s? I don’t believe it could. To support the move to EV’s a new wave of nuclear power stations will be needed and, if started tomorrow it would be 10 years before we had the amount needed. This is a major obstacle. Buying our electric from France and others is not a sustainable long term strategy.

3) Affordability. Currently, if you went and bought a used conventional vehicle, you could be on the road for £1000 if you aren’t picky. Current new EV’s are expensive and even 2nd hand ones are generally 5 figures (with diminished range compared to a new one) and if it needs a new battery, that’s a 5 figure outlay too which all EV’s will need eventually too. I don’t see how this technology can be truly relevant until they can be afforded by the masses, and it’s not particularly fair for those that can afford them to lecture those that can’t on the morality of owning a conventional vehicle.
Iskra

1 - I drive my current EV on very long trips. I only charge every 2nd stop, as bladder range is a bigger issue.. Range & charging speeds are no longer an issue but charger availability can be.

2 - National Grid state that EVs will benefit the grid apart from isolated local upgrades. Grid balancing & storage could reduce the gross power generation need. Heat pumps are an issue.

3 - For me and EV is by some margin the cheaper type of car to own & use and I switched over from cheap old bangers in 2016. Low fuel costs, reliability, no tax / MOT, free all sorts. I know it doesn't yet work for around half of the population, but for the rest hell yes!

I believe the market will solve points 1 and 3 in time. Point 2 is the most concerning as we simply aren’t getting on with the task with any urgency. I’ve been saying we need more nuclear PS for 20 years now, and they still aren’t getting built in any quantity.
Power generation is based on peak demand, not average demand. Battery storage / V2G & DNS controlled charging times actually reduces peak generation needs. Power consumption has dropped a lot over the years but Heat pumps will become an issue by 2030.
 
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Bletchleyite

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I drove my LEAF to Portugal. I can confirm that the battery got seriously hot and charging slowed to a crawl. My new MG5 eats up the miles without an issue, 365 miles back from Scotland with one short charging stop.

The MG5 looks great, the only thing that's making me nervous about one is the possibility of sanctions against China (in the event of them getting too much behind Russia) making parts too hard to get. Spot-on range, a nice size and very comfortable, though I've not test-driven one yet, only looked at and sat in one.
 

reddragon

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The MG5 looks great, the only thing that's making me nervous about one is the possibility of sanctions against China (in the event of them getting too much behind Russia) making parts too hard to get. Spot-on range, a nice size and very comfortable, though I've not test-driven one yet, only looked at and sat in one.
All, that is 100% of kitchen appliances, mobile & computing devices come from China. 95% of cars have substantial content from China. Most complex western weapons have Chinese hardware. We only assemble in the west now :(

As the sanctions with Russia have exposed, the world is very co-dependant.
 

Ediswan

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All, that is 100% of kitchen appliances, mobile & computing devices come from China.
A significant number of washing machines are made in Turkey. You may or may not consider washing machines to be kitchen appliances.
Most Raspberry Pis are made in Wales.
 

reddragon

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A significant number of washing machines are made in Turkey. You may or may not consider washing machines to be kitchen appliances.
Most Raspberry Pis are made in Wales.
made - Assembled in Turkey / Wales

A buy British campaign team found a toaster 'made' in Crawley. Turned out it was 'assembled' in Crawley using Chinese components!
 

trebor79

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The MG5 looks great, the only thing that's making me nervous about one is the possibility of sanctions against China (in the event of them getting too much behind Russia) making parts too hard to get. Spot-on range, a nice size and very comfortable, though I've not test-driven one yet, only looked at and sat in one.
When you test drive, try it in stop start traffic. The VESS is very loud inside the car and it got really irritating. That and the rubbish infotainment were deal breakers for me.
The infotainment in the factored version coming later this year is the same as the one in the new ZS and is perfectly OK. Hopefully they've sorted the VESS noise too. I believe no more orders are being taken until the face lifted one is launched, but there may be a few in stock or nearly new for sale.
In the end I went for a Kia Niro EV. It's allegedly being loaded into a boat in Korea right now.
 

Bletchleyite

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I hate touchscreens in cars so the simpler the infotainment the better!

Unfortunately I don't fit the Niro. I do fit the MG with the seat as far down and back as it goes.
 

jon0844

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I use Android Auto and don't really care about in car systems that quickly date and probably stop getting software updates after a few years. But a car needs decent controls as managing stuff through a touchscreen isn't great, even if big companies like Tesla seem to think it is (going against decades of research that said real buttons with a tactile feedback are preferred).

I expect someone who gets a car will try to convince themselves it's best though. My current lease car has few controls and would be a pain if the car didn't only do short journeys 95% of the time..

I like what Kia and Hyundai are doing, but they're pricey and seem to be going after a premium market. Good luck to them, but I hope the likes of MG will satisfy the lower end of the market like BBK and Xiaomi have done with smartphones.
 

trebor79

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I hate touchscreens in cars so the simpler the infotainment the better!
It's not that it's simple, it's just completely rubbish, particularly the sat nav functions. It's like something from the 1990s, press something on the screen and 3 seconds later it decides to do something.
It does have Android auto/apple car play which makes it usable but it's really dreadful.
Shouldn't be an issue as like I say I believe only facelifted cars coming in future which has a much better system.

I like what Kia and Hyundai are doing, but they're pricey and seem to be going after a premium market. Good luck to them, but I hope the likes of MG will satisfy the lower end of the market like BBK and Xiaomi have done with smartphones.
I was excited by the Ora Cat which was teased as 250 mile range for around £25k, but has emerged as under 200 miles for over £30k.
I'd have gone for it as originally specced and priced, but seems very poor value so went with the Niro. The first model Ora are doing is loaded with a load of electronic gizmos that I neither want nor need. It just needed to have decent range and be good value.
 

Domh245

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It's not that it's simple, it's just completely rubbish, particularly the sat nav functions. It's like something from the 1990s, press something on the screen and 3 seconds later it decides to do something.
It does have Android auto/apple car play which makes it usable but it's really dreadful.
Shouldn't be an issue as like I say I believe only facelifted cars coming in future which has a much better system.

I had the same impression when I sat in a demo car, but the system in my parents EV5 works fine! The only time I've had issues with it was 'first time' running android auto when it just completely fell over but it's otherwise been entirely adequate - which is also how I describe the rest of the car!
 

jon0844

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The first model Ora are doing is loaded with a load of electronic gizmos that I neither want nor need. It just needed to have decent range and be good value.

I guess that because EVs are still expensive (or perceived to be, as people don't look at total cost of ownership taking into account servicing and maintaining a ICE vehicle, let alone the charging cost vs fuel) the car makers feel compelled to load a car with lots of features.

Technically, much of the tech is pretty common now and won't be that costly (and many systems are going to be off-the-shelf hardware - say a MediaTek or Qualcomm SoC - that is used over and over, with a few tweaks to the UI here and there) so it doesn't really cost that much to include, yet they charge a lot for it as people will think they're getting better value for money even if they don't need a lot of the bells and whistles.

It is disappointing if Ora is going to go down the premium route too, as I had high hopes they might be able to offer a great small car offering at a decent price that was £20k or less.
 

PeterC

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I use Android Auto and don't really care about in car systems that quickly date and probably stop getting software updates after a few years. But a car needs decent controls as managing stuff through a touchscreen isn't great, even if big companies like Tesla seem to think it is (going against decades of research that said real buttons with a tactile feedback are preferred).

I expect someone who gets a car will try to convince themselves it's best though. My current lease car has few controls and would be a pain if the car didn't only do short journeys 95% of the time..

I like what Kia and Hyundai are doing, but they're pricey and seem to be going after a premium market. Good luck to them, but I hope the likes of MG will satisfy the lower end of the market like BBK and Xiaomi have done with smartphones.
The only thing that I find in favour of touch screens is that it takes too much attention to set the satnav or make a call while driving. Knobs and buttons I can use without taking my attention off the road.
 

Bletchleyite

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The only thing that I find in favour of touch screens is that it takes too much attention to set the satnav or make a call while driving. Knobs and buttons I can use without taking my attention off the road.

That's why I dislike touchscreens. I want to be able to adjust the temperature, the volume of the stereo etc without taking eyes off the road.

Touchscreens in cars to control basic functions are a deadly menace. And built in satnavs are pointless as I've got a better one on my phone.
 

reddragon

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When you test drive, try it in stop start traffic. The VESS is very loud inside the car and it got really irritating. That and the rubbish infotainment were deal breakers for me.
The infotainment in the factored version coming later this year is the same as the one in the new ZS and is perfectly OK. Hopefully they've sorted the VESS noise too. I believe no more orders are being taken until the face lifted one is launched, but there may be a few in stock or nearly new for sale.
In the end I went for a Kia Niro EV. It's allegedly being loaded into a boat in Korea right now.
In stop start traffic I use adaptive cruise control. The radio is on so I don't here the 'sound'

The infotainment system is fine apart from the satnav. I just use Android auto so not an issue.

I looked seriously at the Kia Niro. Having driven a dozen types of EV and sat in / tried out most of the rest I find that dedicated EV platforms are the way to go. The Niro is an ICE platform, so it's boot is tiny and the space inside is very small whereas the MG5 has a huge boot & loads of space inside AND costs £10k less than a Niro. My only gripes with the MG5 are lack of external charging indicator and lack of pre-conditioning function.

I hate touchscreens in cars so the simpler the infotainment the better!

Unfortunately I don't fit the Niro. I do fit the MG with the seat as far down and back as it goes.
Yes the MG5 is all real buttons!

It's not that it's simple, it's just completely rubbish, particularly the sat nav functions. It's like something from the 1990s, press something on the screen and 3 seconds later it decides to do something.
It does have Android auto/apple car play which makes it usable but it's really dreadful.
Shouldn't be an issue as like I say I believe only facelifted cars coming in future which has a much better system.


I was excited by the Ora Cat which was teased as 250 mile range for around £25k, but has emerged as under 200 miles for over £30k.
I'd have gone for it as originally specced and priced, but seems very poor value so went with the Niro. The first model Ora are doing is loaded with a load of electronic gizmos that I neither want nor need. It just needed to have decent range and be good value.

The Ora Cat is EV architecture so a lot more spacious internally. Tiny boot though!
 

MattRat

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I like what Kia and Hyundai are doing, but they're pricey and seem to be going after a premium market. Good luck to them, but I hope the likes of MG will satisfy the lower end of the market like BBK and Xiaomi have done with smartphones.
The current car trend seems to be to get you to finance them, and it's worrying that even cheap car brands like Kia and Hyundai are joining the bandwagon.

If everyone switches to finance of course, then everyone can get these electric cars, but I doubt it, as we don't have that many uninformed people yet who don't think twice before getting themselves in debt. And if I'm right, then the electric car simply won't be the future if not enough people are buying one, and some bright spark will find an alternative people will actually buy.
 

trebor79

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I guess that because EVs are still expensive (or perceived to be, as people don't look at total cost of ownership taking into account servicing and maintaining a ICE vehicle, let alone the charging cost vs fuel) the car makers feel compelled to load a car with lots of features.

Technically, much of the tech is pretty common now and won't be that costly (and many systems are going to be off-the-shelf hardware - say a MediaTek or Qualcomm SoC - that is used over and over, with a few tweaks to the UI here and there) so it doesn't really cost that much to include, yet they charge a lot for it as people will think they're getting better value for money even if they don't need a lot of the bells and whistles.
As you say, all this technology rubbish is quite cheap to put in and sells for a massive premium. In the context of constrained supply chains meaning "stack em high sell em cheap" is hard to do, "premiumisation" is a way to make enough margin on lower volumes.
I know in the past some cars that had Sat Nav as an option every car came with the hardware and your £2,000 or whatever just enabled the software. It was actually cheaper for the manufacturers to "give away" the hardware than tool up for 2 different version of the infotainment hardware.
It is disappointing if Ora is going to go down the premium route too, as I had high hopes they might be able to offer a great small car offering at a decent price that was £20k or less.
I think it will come. I hope they get a rude awakening attempting to sell an unknown brand with a low range at a premium price.
I looked seriously at the Kia Niro. Having driven a dozen types of EV and sat in / tried out most of the rest I find that dedicated EV platforms are the way to go. The Niro is an ICE platform, so it's boot is tiny and the space inside is very small whereas the MG5 has a huge boot & loads of space inside AND costs £10k less than a Niro. My only gripes with the MG5 are lack of external charging indicator and lack of pre-conditioning function.
I agree. There really isn't much to dislike about the MG5. I could have got used to the VESS and as you say Android Auto negates the sat nav issue. If my wife hadn't said she doesn't like estate cars I'd probably have had one. As she said though "There's nothing to dislike".
The Ora Cat is EV architecture so a lot more spacious internally. Tiny boot though!
Yeah, I think it could be a good as a second car, if they make a 250 mile range version at the right price point!
 

jon0844

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And if I'm right, then the electric car simply won't be the future if not enough people are buying one, and some bright spark will find an alternative people will actually buy.

I can't imagine anything other than EV being the future, for the humble car at least. Forget hydrogen for anything but lorries/buses/coaches and even some of those may be able to use EV if we build a charging infrastructure to suit (like inductive charging).

People want EVs but they're expensive and in short supply - hence some car makers suspending orders.
 

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