The grid demand is going to look totally different to anything that has existed till now, electricity consumption is going to skyrocket and there will be heat pumps or similar electric heating in areas that have never had it before.
Actually UK electricity consumption peaked at 350TWh in 2005. It's been falling steeply ever since due to energy efficiency measure and the decline of heavy industry, and was 320TWh last year.
The National Grid (who really ought to know about such things) also say its not going to be a problem
Without a total reconstruction of the DNO system, for which the materiel and personnel do not exist, compromises will have to be made to allow the necessary increase in power delivery.
Well if the DNO doesn't step in to turn it off the main fuse on the low voltage feeder blows and you won't be getting your car charged any time soon!
Equipment to allow remote control of loads by the DNO already exists in the UK and has done for decades (using radio 4 longwave), indeed in New Zealand essentially every house already has that equipment. It's certainly far less expensive than smart metering.
But you haven't said why that can't be done by the energy supplier as just another feed into their algorithms deciding when to charge my car or heat my hot water cylinder. I don't know how the market works in NZ, but if it's a single state or privately owned entity perhaps that's why they've done it that way.
LW radio and simple on/off of the whole house is crude and unnecessary in this day and age where we can switch on and off just the big loads that make a difference without interrupting normal life.
In essence the DNO would keep watch on the load on the feeder and order car chargers/hot water heaters etc to throttle to avoid exceeding the rating of the circuit.
This allows the system to be run far harder than it can be today, which is necessary given the projected explosion in electricity use.
This is exactly what Octopus are doing right now. You're obsessed with it being the DNO having to do it. They don't
Because cars that are not plugged in when the power glut occurs will have to be charged with exceptionally expensive "peak" electricity rather than free electricity that will have to be thrown away otherwise.
That's my choice as a consumer though. 99% of my charging when at home is at the cheap rate. 80% of may charging out and about is rapid DC charging during a rest break, the remainder is 11kW AC charging when I'm asleep in a hotel. I'm just not going to plug my car into an 11kW post at other times as it's not worth the hassle. And I certainly wouldn't even contemplate a 3kW post.
Curtailing excess production is clearly not an attractive way of doing things, and certainly is not preferably to "inefficient" car charging!
Agreed. But sometimes that's all that's left.
"I don't want to waste energy on inefficiently charging the cars so I will throw the power away instead" is hardly a sensible position!
It is if I'm paying expensive public charging prices for energy that isn't actually going to get into my battery.
But in any case, yes we have those systems, and we will need all of them.
We will be looking at power gluts that last hours and run to tens of gigawatts of excess production.
Every kWh possible must be captured to reduce total system cost and thus cost to the consumer base.
Not really. Marginal cost of production of wind, solar and hydro is zero. As more of those assets are fully amortised, paid down and fall out of their support mechanisms the cost of curtailment will tend to fall.
We've not had a wind, nuclear and solar dominated grid, which has fundamentally different dynamics to a conventional fossil or hydro powered grid. The closest grid in a large country I'm aware of was the pre EU-harmonisation French one, where the time of use tarrif (Option Tempo) allowed for a factor of 20x in cost between lowest and highest price electricity (it used to swing from about 3 eurocents to 57!), although that has flattened out now (
to 7x) because the broader European grid is not nuclear dominated.
You're conflating nuclear and renewables.
That cheap overnight rate was because nuclear has limited turndown (same reason Economy 7 came in here to avoid turning coal plants off overnight). So incentivise use overnight when commerce and industry consumption is low to try and shift domestic load so you don't have to take reactors offline.
With renewables, it's much more dynamic where the imbalance of supply and demand is. It won't necessarily be in the middle of the night or at the same time each day. That's why we need more dynamic pricing, such as that Octopus are offering on various tariffs.
Power will either be enormously expensive or it will be free, cars that are not plugged in when a power glut occurs will have to be be charged with the extraordinarily expensive electricity rather than the free stuff.
And even 30 million 3kW chargers will be able to absorb a spike of 90GW!
There aren't 30m cars on the road!
The answer is not to compel everyone to plug their car in just in case (which is only a one way solution - it can only take excess, not make up a shortfall). The answer is grid scale energy storage in batteries, pumped hydro, liquid air with those investments earning their payback through the arbitrage between times of excess and times of deficiency.
I have batteries in my loft, I buy all my power at the cheap rate of 7.5p/kWh. If I had an export tariff, I could have sold it back during a recent saving session at £4/kWh. That's exactly what large grid scale storage is doing, and it's a lot more flexible and effective than installing millions of low powered AC chargers and expecting everyone to fart about with a cable in the rain when they don't need to.