I suspect neither. But he probably believes that enough Americans are 'naïve or just genuinely stupid' to re-elect him in November. I think he would say anything to get that second term. And he's probably right!
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Donald Trump and the aftermath of his presidency
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Busaholic
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I suspect both, but he certainly has cunning in spades. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the election postponed for up to a year if Trump considered it expedient i.e. if he'd called a national emergency when his half-baked non-policies were proving to be utter failures in halting the spread of the disease.
Busaholic
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Ah, the checks and balances which have been railroaded through by Trump these last three and a bit years: i don't have your confidence that Trump wouldn't find a way (with the connivance of the sinister powers-behind-the-throne that control the Republican Party these days) to delay, or even abolish, Presidential elections. I wouldn't put it past him declaring a State of War in order not to face re-election if the polls are looking dodgy for him.
I don’t really follow the news in the USA particularly, but certainly from looking at it over here in the UK it still seems like Trump’s is very much the only voice in town.
A decent opponent should be tearing absolute strips off him at the moment for the way he’s handled this last few weeks yet it seems like he’s not getting much flack from Biden. Is there an element of them giving himself enough rope etc? Or are the Democrats missing a huge opportunity to either take him down or let him explode and go to pieces?
Any thoughts on this very much welcome.
A decent opponent should be tearing absolute strips off him at the moment for the way he’s handled this last few weeks yet it seems like he’s not getting much flack from Biden. Is there an element of them giving himself enough rope etc? Or are the Democrats missing a huge opportunity to either take him down or let him explode and go to pieces?
Any thoughts on this very much welcome.
Even if he was to declare a State of War (which he can't, only Congress can) he still wouldn't have the power to delay elections. It would require both the House (controlled by the Democrats) and a two-thirds majority in the Senate (where the Democrats hold 45 out of 100 seats).
Busaholic
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I sincerely hope we won't find out: on the other hand, I have a feeling deep in the pit of my stomach that he'll somehow retain power. My faith in democracy as being the least-worst way of organising things would be totally lost, I admit.
You’re not the only one that’s worried about that, although I’m sensing a slight shift, partly because he’s not able to get out and do his rallies which from an egomaniacs point of view must be very hard to take.
I was convinced that he wouldn’t get in last time and my predictions on politics are generally terrible, so yes. He’s definitely definitely going to win. Absolutely no question.
I think you're right, but I suspect he'll win the election rather than any sort of Machiavellian scheme. I don't think Biden will be able to fire up the Democrats the same way Trump fires up (some) Republicans - he does stand a better chance of winning over swing voters than Bernie did at least though I reckon.
Much like @Cowley though, my ability to pick the winning side in politics is second to none, so I'm crossing my fingers (behind my back!) that the Donald wins again in November!
The number of candidates for Democratic nominee for President - at least 21 so a bad start. (We worry about 6 or 7). I'm also not certain that the Democratic Party will unite behind Biden, OK they might endorse him but how much effort will they put in? Some might even believe they stand a better chance in 2024 after four more years of The Donald. The only thing that Biden seems to have going for him is that he hasn't really offended anyone (unlike, say. Sanders or Warren) - he's almost a copy of Spitting Image's Major caricature, there is nothing to stir up his supporters like Trump does.
'because he’s not able to get out and do his rallies' YET. He's got plenty of time, if he can get some Republican Governors to return to normal, he can hold rallies, plenty of publicity, even if not in the swing states. meanwhile Biden may struggle to hold rallies in Democrat heartlands because they are still in lockdown. Remember also that Hilary Clinton won the popular vote but still didn't get in.
Yes, there is an element of letting him do their job for them, but the main issue is that Biden isn't a great candidate. He's got some skeletons in his closet with a somewhat credible allegation of sexual assault and there are legitimate questions about age-related mental decline. The thing which will be crucial for him is his VP pick.
Your point being? The field always starts out crowded, but just like this year it pretty quickly get whittled down to a few realistic candidates. It was a bit bigger this year, but a lot of them really were never serious candidates.
I don't think there is any Democrat who thinks that way. Four more years of DJT and the Supreme Court (and, more importantly, the Federal Judiciary) will be stacked with right-wing nutjobs for 30-years plus. This administration has appointed a *lot* of judges and many of them are relatively young.
Well, that is one way to reduce the Republican vote. Harsh, but true.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Being comparable to John Major might not be a bad thing in the upcoming election.... John Major did unexpectedly well in his first general election as Tory leader, well ahead in the popular vote. (Obviously didn't do so well after that, but that was arguably because of the way the Tories spent the next 5 years tearing themselves to bits over Europe).
You are quite right about the judiciary, it had slipped my mind, especially as the two oldest two are both Democrats. The sort of Democrats I was thinking of are the supporters of The Squad, who really don't like Biden.
Comparing with Major is one thing, I think a comparison with Fluck and Law's version goes beyond that and goes with the 'Sleepy Joe' image. It might do the USA good to have four years of Sleepy Joe but I think it would be difficult to convince the voters of that. Trump is coming up with a whole list of enemies of the 'good ole USA' (real or imagined), that he will say he can knock back, Biden is coming up with nothing; the longer this goes on, the more it will be established in voter's minds that much of the world is against them (the 'Millwall FC' argument) and only Trump can sort it out.
I would also argue that Neil Kinnock shot Labour's cause in the foot - 'Well, alright' indeed. Works for Trump, but not here!
Trump would put mobile voting booths in hospitals if he thought he would get a few more votes. ('Outta the way, doc, and move that ventilator, Mr Bigot hasn't cast his vote yet'.)
nlogax
Established Member
I remember that happening and at the time I almost bent double in a cringe. Still makes me wince!
Biden is due to make a statement today about the claim against him of alleged sexual assault. Question is, will Trump use that against Biden, considering his..history?
Of course, why wouldn't he? All that we need to know (which doesn't mean it's everything but it would be enough for anyone else) about Trump is already public record from the audio of the "grab them by the p***y" incident or just have a browse through the Wikipedia article on the subject. Or there was the case that was filed against him and Epstein alleging that they raped a minor in the early 90s*. That was dropped shortly after by the plaintiff on the basis that she'd been threatened. I mean any of those, many known about before the election, should have been enough to disqualify someone from high office but yet here we are. So will he use it against Biden? Of course he will because it won't matter that people point out his own sordid history because much of it is already out there and enough people didn't care last time out and I've not seen anything to suggest that that has changed. Indeed I'm fairly certain it matters even less...
* I won't directly link to the court filings as it contains very distressing descriptions of child abuse however if you really do want to read it Google "Case 1:16-cv-07673-RA" and you'll find it easily enough. But considered yourself warned regarding the content.
His base, yes. But he's doing nothing to win over uncommitted voters.
Because "Don't vote for him because he has one allegation, ignore my 19 allegations and vote for me." requires a level of mental gymnastics that even Kellyanne would struggle with. It's a state of MAD where neither candidate can attack the other on that basis.
You have more faith in the portion of the electorate he needs to win than I do! He won in 2016 with plenty of allegations hanging around his neck and against a far "cleaner" (at least in that respect) candidate.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
I guess the problem is that a very large number of Trump's supporters probably wouldn't care less even if it turned out he'd raped dozens of women - because they 'know' it's all just a media conspiracy by the elite (and probably the Chinese) to stop him being re-elected, and he's still going to make America great again.
On the other hand, the vast majority of Biden supporters will care very deeply about any hint of Biden's relationships having been in any way inappropriate in the past. I'm sure Biden's core supporters will generally recognise that Biden has expressed regret for the past and it really is the lesser of two evils. The worry is that some swing voters won't be so discerning if Trump and the Republicans launch a barrage of anti-Biden smears based on his past indiscretions.
He needs to win over moderates/uncommited voters. His base (c. 35% of the overall electorate) isn't enough to win.
He won through a combination of the vagaries of the Electoral College and the fact that many of those uncommitted voters decided to "give him a chance" as compared to Hillary. The electoral college victory was sealed by less than 40,000 votes in a couple dozen voting districts.
I don't necessarily disagree with you but equally I don't see that, after what has happened in the previous election and since, that he needs to avoid Biden's troubles with sexual assault on the basis of MAD. I would be most happy to be wrong but I just lack sufficient faith to think that I will be.
Indeed. But give those voters the choice between someone with one allegation against them and someone with 19+, who paid a porn star to not talk about the fact that he cheated on is wife just days after his son was born and who boasted about being able to sexually assault women then they'll either choose the lesser evil, or not vote at all.
This of course being almost the same choice they had in 2016 and that didn't quite go as we might have hoped!
nlogax
Established Member
Because this..
But then again who should be surprised if Trump goes for it and magics-up an angle to use against Biden? It's not as if his supporters care about his own multiple misdeeds. They elected him in spite of everything.
I really hope that you (and @najaB) are right and that we'll all wake up after the election and Trump will have been punished hard by the electorate for everything, including his sexual assaults, and Biden wins comfortably (or even just scrapes through that would do). I just don't have enough faith to think that it will matter in the final analysis precisely because most of the same information regarding his sexual assaults was public knowledge before the 2016 election and it didn't matter. He still won. Okay he lost the popular vote quite comfortably to the tune of several million votes but the US hasn't ditched the Electoral College in the meantime.