Dutch start-up proposes cross-channel service to compete with Eurostar.

[Citybreak1]

Well, exactly. More international travel is good for the UK economy and Net Zero commitments, so at least some government funding doesn't seem unreasonable to me. Surprisingly, in the 10 European rail improvements, the EU kept London - Amsterdam as an aspiration for better services. So even here, partly funding some improvements for the Schengen border at St Pancras might not be out of the question.

Extra trains are a certainty, a redevelopment, however? I can't see it unless that means removing some shops and expanding the international departures space under platforms.

There’s the new Old Oak Common. I see any future terminal seeing some of the other trains which use the station move out St Pancras. The whole bottom of the station could become a second terminal. Moving a few shops and pubs. New waiting area new secure platforms moving the Kent trains. Seems adding extra space to the existing site won’t work as these companies are talking 10+ trains per day. If they build a terminal 2 which trains could move and where in London? Why can’t the Kent trains go to Stratford? There’s no way any new operator would use a station outside London.

 

[Wolfie]

Genuine question, why is it not up to the owner of St Pancras to fund capacity enhancements at their station?



You could just have a quota for the number of passengers to board at St Pancras, with the rest reserved for Stratford, Ebbsfleet or Ashford.

It's fair to say most passengers want London, but Stratford is basically East London's Clapham, with very different connections to the Eastern side of London (including Canary Wharf) and Eastern Home Counties. Often, Greater Anglia leaves Liverpool Street half full (if that) and fills up at Stratford. Yes, many Anglia pax want the Olympic Park and Westfield and HS1 pax hardly will, but most cross-Channel passengers live in the suburbs of London and Île-de-France, not Central London, especially if fares become more affordable.

And if East Londoners are willing to travel to City, Southend and Stansted Airports, let alone Heathrow, I don't see why Stratford wouldn't be a success.

Re your question very simply the station operators would likely only expand the facilities at their own expense - if that is actually physically possible - if they could be guaranteed a commercial rate of return for that investment. Given that many of the mooted contenders appear to have precious few solid plans (at least publicly announced) other than perhaps being the rail equivalent of a low-cost international airline it seems highly unlikely that threshold would be met. Lumo, the domestic equivalent, uses extant facilities.

Are you proposing an end to juxtaposed controls? Currently no Eurostars have arrival checks.

(It's not a bad idea, to be honest, doing all the checks in London in both directions; it'd allow through service to any European station. Would need a Home Office not trying to exploit a loophole in asylum law, though.)

Given that arrival checks would open up the possibility of a significant increase in asylum claims they are highly unlikely to happen. If you haven't noticed HMG's direction of travel with respect to asylum is 180 degrees opposite to that.

There’s the new Old Oak Common. I see any future terminal seeing some of the other trains which use the station move out St Pancras. The whole bottom of the station could become a second terminal. Moving a few shops and pubs. New waiting area new secure platforms moving the Kent trains. Seems adding extra space to the existing site won’t work as these companies are talking 10+ trains per day. If they build a terminal 2 which trains could move and where in London? Why can’t the Kent trains go to Stratford? There’s no way any new operator would use a station outside London.

Re the Kent trains going to Stratford firstly you would kill the utility of domestic HS1 services (which currently charge premium fares) and secondly there are not, as far as l am aware, reversing facilities at Stratford.

 

[LLivery]

Re your question very simply the station operators would likely only expand the facilities at their own expense - if that is actually physically possible - if they could be guaranteed a commercial rate of return for that investment. Given that many of the mooted contenders appear to have precious few solid plans (at least publicly announced) other than perhaps being the rail equivalent of a low-cost international airline it seems highly unlikely that threshold would be met. Lumo, the domestic equivalent, uses extant facilities.

That's fair and I wouldn't expect them to do so without firm commitments, but even Eurostar says they want to double passenger numbers, not all from London, granted. But as HS1 says they want to encourage competition and are owned by companies with the financial clout to fund the capacity improvements to ease the pressure, it feels odd to me at least, for any onus to be on a potential open access operator to fund capital improvements on the border space. But that might just be the forum speculation, rather than an expectation from St Pancras...

There’s the new Old Oak Common. I see any future terminal seeing some of the other trains which use the station move out St Pancras. The whole bottom of the station could become a second terminal. Moving a few shops and pubs. New waiting area new secure platforms moving the Kent trains. Seems adding extra space to the existing site won’t work as these companies are talking 10+ trains per day. If they build a terminal 2 which trains could move and where in London? Why can’t the Kent trains go to Stratford? There’s no way any new operator would use a station outside London.

Old Oak Common as in building the HS1-HS2 connection? The only way I can see that happening is if we rejoined the EU, joined Schengen, and Brussels funded it. As for a second terminal, I'm not sure that would work in the way you describe. St Pancras was a good idea in principle, but what we got is not great for future growth, both HS1 and Midland.

 

[mike57]

Kings Cross/St Pancras:


Euston:

Exactly what I was thinking, and illustrates that for onward travel outside London St Pancras is the best option, and even within London its got good underground services and other connections, In a sense its a victim of its own success.

Would need a Home Office not trying to exploit a loophole in asylum law, though.

Unfortunately the same one asylum seekers ignore, when the rules of assylum state that you should apply for asylum in the first safe country you land in. Given the current situation I would be very surprised if any government moved towards arrival controls. A future government may not be as openly hostile, but I think the political reality is they wouldn't pay much more than lip service.

 

[renegademaster]

Would ebbsfleet really be that terrible of an idea if you had through ticketing with Southeastern high speed? It's only an extra 20 minutes

 

[YorkRailFan]

Would ebbsfleet really be that terrible of an idea if you had through ticketing with Southeastern high speed? It's only an extra 20 minutes

Can you turn round trains at Ebbsfleet?

 

[Citybreak1]

Would ebbsfleet really be that terrible of an idea if you had through ticketing with Southeastern high speed? It's only an extra 20 minutes

That’s like ending a Lumo service in Peterborough. I think any station outside St Pancras is a no go. Maybe they will regret shutting Waterloo down as that was due to be a second terminal. These platforms were empty until recently too.

 

[YorkRailFan]

think any station outside St Pancras is a no go

Stratford could be possible, except that there is no border control, or security.

 

[Citybreak1]

Stratford could be possible, except that there is no border control, or security.

I know there’s been alot of development around Stratford but I don’t see it as likely. Don’t think it’s big enough. Looking back at DB’s plan three trains a day one spitting in Brussels to go to Frankfurt. Can’t believe that never got off the ground running. 3 services to Germany would compliment Eurostars existing facilities.

 

[YorkRailFan]

I know there’s been alot of development around Stratford but I don’t see it as likely. Don’t think it’s big enough. Looking back at DB’s plan three trains a day one spitting in Brussels to go to Frankfurt. Can’t believe that never got off the ground running. 3 services to Germany would compliment Eurostars existing facilities.

With Evolyn, Heuro, Virgin and now SBB, St Pancras won't have the space.

 

[Citybreak1]

With Evolyn, Heuro, Virgin and now SBB, St Pancras won't have the space.

That’s my point very few of these are viable. And what happens if there isn’t demand and Eurostar have to cut back more routes? That’s why I would favour the now axed DB route. Frankfurt wouldn’t take any business away from Eurostar.

 

[stuu]

Are you proposing an end to juxtaposed controls? Currently no Eurostars have arrival checks.

(It's not a bad idea, to be honest, doing all the checks in London in both directions; it'd allow through service to any European station. Would need a Home Office not trying to exploit a loophole in asylum law, though.)

No, just badly worded (although that would be sensible)

Reconfigure the whole area below the platforms to be just for departures - arrivals could go straight off the platforms onto a new mezzanine floor and then directly down to Pancras Road.

There must be a way to cope with more than 2-4 departures per hour

 

[YorkRailFan]

That’s my point very few of these are viable. And what happens if there isn’t demand and Eurostar have to cut back more routes? That’s why I would favour the now axed DB route. Frankfurt wouldn’t take any business away from Eurostar.

I think that out of the potential start ups (not including DB and SBB), Heuro probably has the best shot as they're looking at Amsterdam services, compared to Evolyn and Virgin looking at France.

 

[mike57]

That’s like ending a Lumo service in Peterborough. I think any station outside St Pancras is a no go.

I would agree, the only other possibility would be a low cost option from Ebbsfleet or Ashford to Lille, with through ticketing from London via HS1 domestic services, and onwards from Lille maybe using OiuGo the low cost SNCF operation, but unless the savings are enough people will either pay up for the convenience of Eurostar or fly. And looking at another similar thread here access charges through the tunnel will likely mean the economics just wont stack up.

Maybe they will regret shutting Waterloo down as that was due to be a second termina

The problem with Waterloo is how do you get there from HS1, unless you are going to create another high speed tunneled route across London to Waterloo, which just isnt going to happen.To use the classic lines you need 3rd rail compatible stock, built to the UK loading gauge, like the old Eurostar Class 373s, and you have to pick your way across South London on congested local lines. So you end up in a less convenient terminal for most I would suggest, after a longer journey time, so the only way to make it more attractive is to offer lower fares = less profits for the operator.

 

[nwales58]

With Evolyn, Heuro, Virgin and now SBB, St Pancras won't have the space.

Summary to date:

Evolyn - at study stage. Press release massively over-hyped then denied by Alstom.

Heuro - Dutch entrepreneurs, no operational expertise yet. Amsterdam-Paris more likely than Amsterdam-London

Virgin - hot air so far.

SBB - not primarily London. Swiss-centred long distance in general, London being evaluated to please an MP.

RENFE - announcement was about their open access plans in France and beyond. Implied France-London not Barcelona-London.

Much of the excitement is journalists and others jumping to dubious conclusions, then the ideas gain a life of their own and multiply.

This forum knows the problems. Any serious new entrant should know them too. Journalists of course don't. Evolyn mentioned some of what they needed to do but the press release over-claimed and reduced credibility. Others seem not even at that stage.

 

[Citybreak1]

I think that out of the potential start ups (not including DB and SBB), Heuro probably has the best shot as they're looking at Amsterdam services, compared to Evolyn and Virgin looking at France.

Paris is the busy route though and Heuro doesn’t seem to have any train orders yet.

I would agree, the only other possibility would be a low cost option from Ebbsfleet or Ashford to Lille, with through ticketing from London via HS1 domestic services, and onwards from Lille maybe using OiuGo the low cost SNCF operation, but unless the savings are enough people will either pay up for the convenience of Eurostar or fly. And looking at another similar thread here access charges through the tunnel will likely mean the economics just wont stack up.

The problem with Waterloo is how do you get there from HS1, unless you are going to create another high speed tunneled route across London to Waterloo, which just isnt going to happen.To use the classic lines you need 3rd rail compatible stock, built to the UK loading gauge, like the old Eurostar Class 373s, and you have to pick your way across South London on congested local lines. So you end up in a less convenient terminal for most I would suggest, after a longer journey time, so the only way to make it more attractive is to offer lower fares = less profits for the operator.

And they can’t depend on 373’s. Surely there’s a plan to replace these? I notice none carry the new Eurostar logo yet.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Paris is the busy route though and Heuro doesn’t seem to have any train orders yet.

None of the start ups, despite what Evolyn said.

 

[Citybreak1]

Summary to date:

Evolyn - at study stage. Press release massively over-hyped then denied by Alstom.

Heuro - Dutch entrepreneurs, no operational expertise yet. Amsterdam-Paris more likely than Amsterdam-London

Virgin - hot air so far.

SBB - not primarily London. Swiss-centred long distance in general, London being evaluated to please an MP.

RENFE - announcement was about their open access plans in France and beyond. Implied France-London not Barcelona-London.

Much of the excitement is journalists and others jumping to dubious conclusions, then the ideas gain a life of their own and multiply.

This forum knows the problems. Any serious new entrant should know them too. Journalists of course don't. Evolyn mentioned some of what they needed to do but the press release over-claimed and reduced credibility. Others seem not even at that stage.

I agree with all this. So what was the reason DB pulled out? Was it Brexit? Im sure they ran an ICE train to London and it needed modifications to support the tunnel. But you look at Amsterdam with Eurostar it’s still quite new. People never thought they could sort customs out at Central. Looks like they can even keep services going during renovations. Holland works with small custom areas so why not London? I believe Amsterdam quickly came about after the new trains came in 2014 so 4 years. So is 2028 that unrealistic?

 

[YorkRailFan]

Summary to date:

Evolyn - at study stage. Press release massively over-hyped then denied by Alstom.

Heuro - Dutch entrepreneurs, no operational expertise yet. Amsterdam-Paris more likely than Amsterdam-London

Virgin - hot air so far.

SBB - not primarily London. Swiss-centred long distance in general, London being evaluated to please an MP.

RENFE - announcement was about their open access plans in France and beyond. Implied France-London not Barcelona-London.

Much of the excitement is journalists and others jumping to dubious conclusions, then the ideas gain a life of their own and multiply.

This forum knows the problems. Any serious new entrant should know them too. Journalists of course don't. Evolyn mentioned some of what they needed to do but the press release over-claimed and reduced credibility. Others seem not even at that stage.

Virgin seems to be the least likely, basically Branson trying to get in on this market.

 

[Citybreak1]

None of the start ups, despite what Evolyn said.

I’m not sure I fancy these trains anyway. I’m not a fan of French TGV’s. Those ICE trains through the tunnel would be much nicer they seem closer to E320’s.

 

[YorkRailFan]

I’m not sure I fancy these trains anyway. I’m not a fan of French TGV’s. Those ICE trains through the tunnel would be much nicer they seem closer to E320’s.

Evolyn claimed that they ordered Aveilas. Alstom later denied this.

 

[Wolfie]

Exactly what I was thinking, and illustrates that for onward travel outside London St Pancras is the best option, and even within London its got good underground services and other connections, In a sense its a victim of its own success.

Unfortunately the same one asylum seekers ignore, when the rules of assylum state that you should apply for asylum in the first safe country you land in. Given the current situation I would be very surprised if any government moved towards arrival controls. A future government may not be as openly hostile, but I think the political reality is they wouldn't pay much more than lip service.

I am in danger of going off topic but your second para repeats a regular fallacy which must be challenged

Politicians and some others repeatedly say that a genuine refugee would claim asylum in the first safe country he or she reaches. That is wishful thinking based on what some in the UK would like the law to be. There is no obligation in the Refugee Convention, either explicit or implicit, to claim asylum in the first safe country reached by a refugee

The Refugee Convention actually gives refugees a degree of choice as to where the seek asylum. Article 31 of the Convention protects refugees against prosecution for illegal entry to a receiving country in certain circumstances. This understanding has been recognised by the courts in England and Wales. In the case of R v Uxbridge Magistrates Court (ex parte Adimi) (1999) Lord Justice Simon Brown held that refugees did not have to claim asylum in countries through which they pass to reach safety in order to be protected by Article 31.

Given that there is no way that the Home Office will agree arrival checks. Indeed pre-departure checks are the norm for other forms of transport too. Why do you think that an airline asks to see your passport?

 

[mike57]

And they can’t depend on 373’s. Surely there’s a plan to replace these? I notice none carry the new Eurostar logo yet.

If they are replaced I doubt they will be either UK loading gauge compatible or 750v DC third rail capable. The 373s have had their 750dc capability removed anyway.

I am not sure actually owns them, are they leased?, but at around 30 years old they must have paid for themselves, so maybe keep them going for another 10 years with the 374s on front line services. If as I suspect Eurostar are the owners it makes sense to keep them as backups to cover failures, even if they are less heavily used.

 

[Citybreak1]

If they are replaced I doubt they will be either UK loading gauge compatible or 750v DC third rail capable. The 373s have had their 750dc capability removed anyway.

I am not sure actually owns them, are they leased?, but at around 30 years old they must have paid for themselves, so maybe keep them going for another 10 years with the 374s on front line services. If as I suspect Eurostar are the owners it makes sense to keep them as backups to cover failures, even if they are less heavily used.

You could argue the refit means they stay in service longer but some of Avanti had a refit and LNER and are set to be scrapped or sent elsewhere. I’ve yet to get a long term answer to what happens with the 8 remaining trains. Given LNER just placed a small order I am surprised Eurostar don’t buy another 8 trains. Future proof for services to Germany. Despite all the fuss I believe part of the Thalys merger was to eventually see Eurostar expand. Looking at the DB plan I wonder why they can’t empty the train and split it in Brussels to continue to Germany on one train? Lots of journalists have been critical of Eurostar but I believe they plan more Amsterdam services and possibly skipping Brussels to offer quick connections to Holland. Even this would be a game changer. Again at that point surely they may wish to replace those 373 trains?

 

[renegademaster]

That’s like ending a Lumo service in Peterborough. I think any station outside St Pancras is a no go. Maybe they will regret shutting Waterloo down as that was due to be a second terminal. These platforms were empty until recently too.

More like terminating at porters bar , which people would still probably tolerate if it stays lumo prices. Its not hugely different from "Lille shuffle" except it's a lot earlier and you are getting onto a different train

Why do you think that an airline asks to see your passport?

So they don't get a big fine from the country who do the checks at the destination airport.

 

[mike57]

I’ve yet to get a long term answer to what happens with the 8 remaining trains.

I think it depends who owns them, if as I suspect its Eurostar then keeping them going for a few more years makes sense, after they will paid for and written off from a financial point of view. If they are leased then when the lease expires it depends how much the leasing company want to charge, again the leasing company may see it that any revenue earned after 30+ years is a bonus and make the pricing attractive to encourage continued use rather than scrapping them.

 

[Wolfie]

So they don't get a big fine from the country who do the checks at the destination airport.

There is publicly available information showing that governments undertake pre-departure screening and can issue an order instructing an airline to refuse to carry one or more passengers.

 

[RT4038]

There is publicly available information showing that governments undertake pre-departure screening and can issue an order instructing an airline to refuse to carry one or more passengers.

Yes, but they are not checking all the passenger documentation before pre-departure, only against lists of known undesirables. The airlines check the travel documentation to, as @renegademaster states, avoid big fines and (if not rectified) operating licence revocation.

 

[AlastairFraser]

I agree with all this. So what was the reason DB pulled out? Was it Brexit? Im sure they ran an ICE train to London and it needed modifications to support the tunnel. But you look at Amsterdam with Eurostar it’s still quite new. People never thought they could sort customs out at Central. Looks like they can even keep services going during renovations. Holland works with small custom areas so why not London? I believe Amsterdam quickly came about after the new trains came in 2014 so 4 years. So is 2028 that unrealistic?

Most international trains from the Netherlands are within Schengen and so don't need mass border/customs checks.
The volume of passengers from non-Schengen countries using Netherlands stations is small in comparison.

Non-capital ports of departure have been proven to work with low cost airlines before (e.g Paris Beauvais Airport), so there's no reason why e.g. Ebbsfleet wouldn't work at a suitable price point.

 

[SocietyForFer]

I think there is a good possibility of being able to run a coach & rail service from Ebbesfleet. You can get a catchment area as large as South + South East + East. In particular it might be appealing to tourists from Continental Europe with a lot of luggage looking to travel to destinations further away and not wanting to deal with the nightmare that is interchanging in Central London.

One possible option if the ETA for UK and Schegen get going is having fully automated passport control at UK and EU train stations, maybe with security contracted out to a private company and local police. Only people with a European passport and registered ETA can travel, and there is a risk of rejection if you are unable to fully satisfy the system.

I've also always been a fan of the RER model for high speed rail, wanting to send the high speed trains in a tunnel through Central London with three stops, but you could theoretically send the trains to Old Oak Common with a link between HS1 and HS2. OOC would provide an interchange with GWR, CR and WCML, along with tube and occasionally Southern (and hopefully SWR).