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East-West Rail (EWR): Alternative options and speculation

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Bald Rick

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Tunnelling is rather expensive, but so is the cost of the endless delays forced by arguments like the ones going on.

As mentioned before - tunnelling is much more expensive than the ‘arguments’, and the tunnelling would not remove many of the arguers anyway. It’s exactly the same consents process, with the same requirement to demonstrate you have considered options, requiring a similar level of work. All it would remove is the time and effort of responding to certain specific objectors. In the scheme of things this is a relatively small cost.

And as @Ianno87 says, you’d still need ventilation shafts / escape shafts / headhouses every couple of kilometres as well.
 
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HSTEd

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It’s exactly the same consents process, with the same requirement to demonstrate you have considered options, requiring a similar level of work. All it would remove is the time and effort of responding to certain specific objectors. In the scheme of things this is a relatively small cost.
Whilst it is true that it is technically the same process, what you are proposing does have some bearing on the cost and difficulty of the consultation, both in cash and political terms.

Which is why HS2 has a giant tunnel under the Chilterns, even though it would likely have been substantially cheaper, in cash terms, to cross the region on the surface. Indeed I'm pretty sure the cash optimised route over the Chilterns would have no tunnels at all.

Every infrastructure system requires both money and political capital to push through.

I've simply come to the conclusion that political capital is now considerably more valuable than money.

And as @Ianno87 says, you’d still need ventilation shafts / escape shafts / headhouses every couple of kilometres as well.
Surely the quantity of surface infrastructure would be entirely dependent on the engineering choices made in the tunnel's construction?

After all you could reach Bedford to Sandy in a length that technically allows for only one surface shaft, using the example of the Ceneri Base Tunnel, or no shaft at all, from the requirements of the TSIs.

But I will stop at the risk of derailing the thread.

EDIT:

Maybe it's just my nuclear background colouring my perspective!
 
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Tobbes

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Whilst it is true that it is technically the same process, what you are proposing does have some bearing on the cost and difficulty of the consultation, both in cash and political terms.

Which is why HS2 has a giant tunnel under the Chilterns, even though it would likely have been substantially cheaper, in cash terms, to cross the region on the surface. Indeed I'm pretty sure the cash optimised route over the Chilterns would have no tunnels at all.

Every infrastructure system requires both money and political capital to push through.

I've simply come to the conclusion that political capital is now considerably more valuable than money.


Surely the quantity of surface infrastructure would be entirely dependent on the engineering choices made in the tunnel's construction?

After all you could reach Bedford to Sandy in a length that technically allows for only one surface shaft, using the example of the Ceneri Base Tunnel, or no shaft at all, from the requirements of the TSIs.

But I will stop at the risk of derailing the thread.

EDIT:

Maybe it's just my nuclear background colouring my perspective!
I take the point about political capital, but the actual level of cash expenditures do matter and will continue to do so for a while yet, rumours of new Royal Yachts notwithstanding; 'Best Value' remains the key metric here, and rightly so.
 

Ianno87

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Surely the quantity of surface infrastructure would be entirely dependent on the engineering choices made in the tunnel's construction?

More depends what you can get the local fire brigade to agree to. Extending intervention distances (and thus time) for no other reason than to avoid a simple surface building (as opposed to the topology of the Alps, which Fenland is not) will be a good one to get past a public inquiry...
 

jimm

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I think the long term "plan" is for both Oxford fasts to be extended to Worcester, the one run to Kidderminster and the other to Malvern/Hereford. London to Stratford via Honeybourne requires reversal at Honeybourne, and once you've sent the London train as far an Honeybourne you might as well send it to Worcester. Stratford-Honeybourne would be much better served by an extension of the Snow Hill service (cough cough Birmingham-Stratford-Worcester-Kidderminster-Birmingham circle, anyone? cough). Were this to be extended to (say) Worcester, more double track (or at least signalling changes allowing two trains to closely follow each other in the same direction) would be needed between Evesham and Norton Jn.

Much as I'd like a direct EWR service along the Cotswold line, it's not going to happen!

I would expect if Stratford to Honeybourne ever got off the ground the chord would be put back in east to north. You wouldnt reverse.

That’s a very big if.

Not really the place for continuing this tangential line of discussion, but just for the sake of clarification and bringing things up to date, in all the recent studies of reopening Honeybourne-Stratford, the consultants have worked on the basis that the triangle at Honeybourne will be reinstated to allow direct running between Stratford and Moreton-in-Marsh. A consultancy called Stantec are currently working on a full Economic Impact Assessment study for reopening, with the DfT putting in most of the funding.

Service patterns are part of the picture, and better links for the North Cotswolds and Vale of Evesham to Birmingham and the West Midlands generally are seen as vital, but the idea that Worcester needs an all-day 2tph London service is questionable, given typical passenger numbers on Cotswold Line trains to the east and west of Moreton-in-Marsh. Never mind the impact of the pandemic on travel habits. If more leisure/tourist type travel is to be key to the future for the network, then fast London-Stratford services will score much higher than 2tph to Worcester and extensions to Kidderminster.
 

zwk500

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If more leisure/tourist type travel is to be key to the future for the network, then fast London-Stratford services will score much higher than 2tph to Worcester and extensions to Kidderminster.
A big question is will it score highly enough to justify sorting out Seven Meadows Road instead of routing via Warwick.
 

jimm

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A big question is will it score highly enough to justify sorting out Seven Meadows Road instead of routing via Warwick.
There's a lot more to this proposal and what the Economic Impact Assessment is looking at than altering a few hundred metres of road in Stratford* and what route London-Stratford trains take - such as the hugely improved regional/local connections reopening would offer between South Warwickshire, the North Cotswolds, Worcestershire - and beyond.

Or giving people who will live in the 3,500 new homes that will go on Long Marston airfield and the 1,050 homes just down the road at Meon Vale on the Royal Engineers depot site a way to get in and out of Stratford and Birmingham, or towards Evesham and Worcester, that does not involve using cars.

*where putting the railway in a diveunder trench/tunnel alongside the road and under the Evesham Road roundabout is an obvious and accepted engineering solution from previous studies of the scheme.
 

zwk500

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There's a lot more to this proposal and what the Economic Impact Assessment is looking at than altering a few hundred metres of road in Stratford* and what route London-Stratford trains take
You appear to be absolutely determined to see this rebuilt, and as its off topic there's no point me continuing this tangent.
 

Bletchleyite

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Is the opening of this line on target to coincide with TPE releasing their 15 185s?

185s would be an option, yes, though due to their overweight and inefficient nature I am not convinced they will be first choice. Were I a betting man I'd say something from TfW, either 3-car 175s (but you'd have to fit ETCS for the spec) or 158s formed into 3-car sets (have ETCS, but I believe the spec is for 100mph, not 90mph, so they aren't perfect).
 

camflyer

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The new mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough gave a TV interview on local new today. He said that while he had "no preference" over a north or south approach to Cambridge, "both should be considered equally" and "put on the table"

Maybe he's not trying to upset anyone in his first day of his new job but he should know that the northern approach has already been considered and reconsidered.
 

thatapanydude

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Quick question? Why can't the Bedford to Cambridge have space for 125mph/110mph running, in some of the straighter sections, east of Renhold. As a new build it might be worth building to as high a spec as possible.

In terms of fleet, I would say class 170s are a best bet - though I would like to see some of the express services run by more intercity style stock like a class 180 for example.
 

swt_passenger

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Quick question? Why can't the Bedford to Cambridge have space for 125mph/110mph running, in some of the straighter sections, east of Renhold. As a new build it might be worth building to as high a spec as possible.

In terms of fleet, I would say class 170s are a best bet - though I would like to see some of the express services run by more intercity style stock like a class 180 for example.
There won’t be any express services suitable for a 125 mph intercity train. The bit currently being built is not designed for that type of service, so it’s unlikely any other section will be.
 

Ianno87

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Quick question? Why can't the Bedford to Cambridge have space for 125mph/110mph running, in some of the straighter sections, east of Renhold. As a new build it might be worth building to as high a spec as possible.

In terms of fleet, I would say class 170s are a best bet - though I would like to see some of the express services run by more intercity style stock like a class 180 for example.

A) Trains will be stopping at stations: Bedford, St Neots/Tempsford and Cambourne - the distance between them won't be enough to sustain such high speed running between stops

B) It would also have an increased noise impact, that would need to be factored into environmental assessments.
 

Vilhelm22

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Do people think the Aylesbury branch is ever going to happen? It was put ‘under review’ back in 2021 and I was wondering if any progress had been made there. It would really benefit me if it did get built, but I’m really starting to doubt if it’ll happen at all at this point. Can anyone tell me the latest news on that?
 

zwk500

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Do people think the Aylesbury branch is ever going to happen? It was put ‘under review’ back in 2021 and I was wondering if any progress had been made there. It would really benefit me if it did get built, but I’m really starting to doubt if it’ll happen at all at this point. Can anyone tell me the latest news on that?
Believe the latest is that the track and junction will be put in but the services have been kicked into the long grass for the foreseeable. I think Aylesbury services are possible in a medium-term future date, but will wait until a decision is made on the Marston Vale first.
 

Kingham West

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Yes , but it will have to wait till HS2 completion. There are political rules about binding your successors, and who knows what policy will be in 2032. I was out there this week , work is progressing exactly as to plan , there will be a National Rail line put in , I posted an ariel photo of Junction prep in the past .
 

Bertone

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Believe the latest is that the track and junction will be put in but the services have been kicked into the long grass for the foreseeable. I think Aylesbury services are possible in a medium-term future date, but will wait until a decision is made on the Marston Vale first.
Why does the Marston Vale affect the Aylesbury line future ?
 

zwk500

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Why does the Marston Vale affect the Aylesbury line future ?
Because the option selected for the Marston Vale will determine the service pattern and therefore which services could be extended to Aylesbury (or which slots are available for new Aylesbury Services).
 

cle

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Ie no room at MKC unless Bedford happens?

Might something get extended to Northampton to free up platform space at MK? Northampton does need more regional/orbital connections. Oxford is useful as a destination too. Bicester probably quite popular too.
 

zwk500

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Ie no room at MKC unless Bedford happens?
I don't think it's as straightforward as that, as the Marston Vale isn't going to really change the MK options. MKC was always going to have 2tph to Oxford. It's more what gaps an MKC-Aylesbury could fall into on the section immediately south of MKC and whether that works with junctions etc, or if you can extend a Bedford-Bletchley stopper down to Aylesbury.
Might something get extended to Northampton to free up platform space at MK? Northampton does need more regional/orbital connections. Oxford is useful as a destination too. Bicester probably quite popular too.
Sending things up to Northampton solves one problem but causes another (broken diagrams). It's a shade over 10 minutes from MK to Northampton, so you'd be adding 20 minutes into the schedule, which means an extra unit in the cycle and sitting awkwardly at Northampton for 10 or 40 minutes before dropping back into the path at MKC.
And that's assuming you can get through to Northampton without being trapped behind a freight.
 

Railwaysceptic

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Believe the latest is that the track and junction will be put in but the services have been kicked into the long grass for the foreseeable. I think Aylesbury services are possible in a medium-term future date, but will wait until a decision is made on the Marston Vale first.
I hope that when they get around to deciding the nature of the Aylesbury connection, they also consider the feasibility of an all Buckinghamshire High Wycombe to Milton Keynes service, whether or not it's part of the existing Chiltern Marylebone/Princes Risborough/Aylesbury service. (Most people unfamiliar with Buckinghamshire are unaware that High Wycombe, Princes Risborough and Aylesbury is pretty much a straight line)
 

zwk500

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I hope that when they get around to deciding the nature of the Aylesbury connection, they also consider the feasibility of an all Buckinghamshire High Wycombe to Milton Keynes service, whether or not it's part of the existing Chiltern Marylebone/Princes Risborough/Aylesbury service. (Most people unfamiliar with Buckinghamshire are unaware that High Wycombe, Princes Risborough and Aylesbury is pretty much a straight line)
AFAIK that was briefly mentioned at the start of the project but very quickly discarded for performance reasons. Once EWR is up and running it may be feasible, but flows from beyond Aylesbury to MK seem to be more limited from my time living there.
 

swt_passenger

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I hope that when they get around to deciding the nature of the Aylesbury connection, they also consider the feasibility of an all Buckinghamshire High Wycombe to Milton Keynes service, whether or not it's part of the existing Chiltern Marylebone/Princes Risborough/Aylesbury service. (Most people unfamiliar with Buckinghamshire are unaware that High Wycombe, Princes Risborough and Aylesbury is pretty much a straight line)
Through running from High Wycombe has been specifically ruled out since before the TWA application.
 
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A0

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I hope that when they get around to deciding the nature of the Aylesbury connection, they also consider the feasibility of an all Buckinghamshire High Wycombe to Milton Keynes service, whether or not it's part of the existing Chiltern Marylebone/Princes Risborough/Aylesbury service. (Most people unfamiliar with Buckinghamshire are unaware that High Wycombe, Princes Risborough and Aylesbury is pretty much a straight line)

Notwithstanding - people in High Wycombe don't necessarily want to travel to MK or vice versa.

For Wycombe, London, Oxford and Reading are all closer and of more importance.

Often on these boards we get the 'there's no link across county 'x'' or 'but 'x' is the county town', yet it's an utter irrelevance to how people live or where they want to travel to.
 

The Planner

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They will end up Norhampton-esque once it happens I suspect. They will be the same trains but likely with a 10-15 minute dwell at Aylesbury.
 

zwk500

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The title of this thread specifically refers to alternative options and speculation.
The new posts were originally made on the Construction progress thread, which is where the post you have replied was originally posted. I hadn't spotted it had been moved with the others, expecting it to be deleted.
 

Bletchleyite

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They will end up Norhampton-esque once it happens I suspect. They will be the same trains but likely with a 10-15 minute dwell at Aylesbury.

There is a lot of logic in Chiltern being the operator of EWR, to be honest, given that they are the only major DMU operator in the area. (GWR have the branches but nowhere near as many DMUs now). So yes, I can see sense in joining the Aylesbury-Risborough local service to the MK service, or indeed running it through from Marylebone, though the downside of the latter is that if the WCML is ever up the spout MK commuters will swamp it.
 

zwk500

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There is a lot of logic in Chiltern being the operator of EWR, to be honest, given that they are the only major DMU operator in the area.
Isn't it going to be LNR's 196s to start with? They make sense, as they already have a driver depot at Bletchley where the stock will be based.
(GWR have the branches but nowhere near as many DMUs now).
GWR would be a very odd choice for the route.
So yes, I can see sense in joining the Aylesbury-Risborough local service to the MK service, or indeed running it through from Marylebone, though the downside of the latter is that if the WCML is ever up the spout MK commuters will swamp it.
I think performance concerns on the single line and importation of delay would see strong opposition to a through service. MKC-Aylesbury would satisfy most of the demand, places like Risborough and High Wycombe to MK are much smaller flows. And operation of that service by LNR would make most sense. You could even serve Aylesbury as an extension of the Marston Vale all-stations, (2tph MKC-OXF, 1tph BFM-OXF, 1tph BFM-AYL) which would use the WCML services to provide Bletchley-MKC links.
 
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