East-West Rail (EWR): Alternative options and speculation

[The Planner]

Isn't it going to be LNR's 196s to start with? They make sense, as they already have a driver depot at Bletchley where the stock will be based.

GWR would be a very odd choice for the route.

I think performance concerns on the single line and importation of delay would see strong opposition to a through service. MKC-Aylesbury would satisfy most of the demand, places like Risborough and High Wycombe to MK are much smaller flows. And operation of that service by LNR would make most sense. You could even serve Aylesbury as an extension of the Marston Vale all-stations, (2tph MKC-OXF, 1tph BFM-OXF, 1tph BFM-AYL) which would use the WCML services to provide Bletchley-MKC links.

It might be their stock, 99% LNWR won't be running it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Isn't it going to be LNR's 196s to start with? They make sense, as they already have a driver depot at Bletchley where the stock will be based.

I keep hearing suggestions that these will no longer be used or that they will. But there's nothing saying that just because LNR's units may be used means that LNR will operate it.

I think performance concerns on the single line and importation of delay would see strong opposition to a through service. MKC-Aylesbury would satisfy most of the demand, places like Risborough and High Wycombe to MK are much smaller flows. And operation of that service by LNR would make most sense. You could even serve Aylesbury as an extension of the Marston Vale all-stations, (2tph MKC-OXF, 1tph BFM-OXF, 1tph BFM-AYL) which would use the WCML services to provide Bletchley-MKC links.

To bring value the Aylesbury service needs to go to MKC. There's no point in it otherwise; its primary use will be inbound commuting.

 

[cle]

I don't think it's as straightforward as that, as the Marston Vale isn't going to really change the MK options. MKC was always going to have 2tph to Oxford. It's more what gaps an MKC-Aylesbury could fall into on the section immediately south of MKC and whether that works with junctions etc, or if you can extend a Bedford-Bletchley stopper down to Aylesbury.

Sending things up to Northampton solves one problem but causes another (broken diagrams). It's a shade over 10 minutes from MK to Northampton, so you'd be adding 20 minutes into the schedule, which means an extra unit in the cycle and sitting awkwardly at Northampton for 10 or 40 minutes before dropping back into the path at MKC.
And that's assuming you can get through to Northampton without being trapped behind a freight.

You've mentioned Marston to Aylesbury twice now. Interesting because you're one of the more hawkish posters on calling out anything fanciful... And that journey makes zero sense... I don't see any demand from Bedford to Aylesbury at all.

In a thread where people are debunking Wycombe-MKC (two much larger/important places than Aylesbury <> Bedford) - I don't subscribe to 'County' lines BS either, archaic rubbish) - but the Aylesbury service has to get into Milton Keynes proper.

Although there might be some WCML interchanging at Bletchley, that won't be the main flow at all. I'd expect Winslow would see some double-backing to London from Bletchley though.

 

[zwk500]

You've mentioned Marston to Aylesbury twice now. Interesting because you're one of the more hawkish posters on calling out anything fanciful... And that journey makes zero sense... I don't see any demand from Bedford to Aylesbury at all.

In a thread where people are debunking Wycombe-MKC (two much larger/important places than Aylesbury <> Bedford) - I don't subscribe to 'County' lines BS either, archaic rubbish) - but the Aylesbury service has to get into Milton Keynes proper.

Although there might be some WCML interchanging at Bletchley, that won't be the main flow at all. I'd expect Winslow would see some double-backing to London from Bletchley though.

I agree that Aylesbury-MKC is by far the bigger market. I am just thinking about how the service might be provided with the absolute minimum of Drivers and Units. Although the MKC-Aylesbury service may well lend itself quite nicely to a hourly round trip once you take the stops at Bletchley and Winslow into account.

 

[A0]

Sending things up to Northampton solves one problem but causes another (broken diagrams). It's a shade over 10 minutes from MK to Northampton, so you'd be adding 20 minutes into the schedule, which means an extra unit in the cycle and sitting awkwardly at Northampton for 10 or 40 minutes before dropping back into the path at MKC.
And that's assuming you can get through to Northampton without being trapped behind a freight.

Bit in bold - I wish.

Current LNW timings from Northampton to MK are consistently 16 mins - it would be fairer to say 'not less than 15 mins'.

 

[cle]

I would like 1tph EWR to reach Northampton. It needs better connections, and is a big, if overlooked place. Chicken and egg.

Similarly, if possible, I think 1tph EWR to Corby (calling Wellingborough and Kettering) might also leverage new non-London/orbital opportunities. Tied in with wires (and an EMU) to Leicester.

Makes good use of the route, and opens up new possibilities. I'm sure Leicester and Nottingham would be more appealing, in time. But worth a shot. All medium sized places which might add up to a good uptake (vs M1) of random pairs and use cases - think of it as a new spine and the usage will be super disparate and creative - e.g. a rail journey from Kettering to Hemel or Watford, or Wellingborough to the Cotswolds.

 

[bspahh]

I would like 1tph EWR to reach Northampton. It needs better connections, and is a big, if overlooked place. Chicken and egg.

Similarly, if possible, I think 1tph EWR to Corby (calling Wellingborough and Kettering) might also leverage new non-London/orbital opportunities. Tied in with wires (and an EMU) to Leicester.

Makes good use of the route, and opens up new possibilities. I'm sure Leicester and Nottingham would be more appealing, in time. But worth a shot. All medium sized places which might add up to a good uptake (vs M1) of random pairs and use cases - think of it as a new spine and the usage will be super disparate and creative - e.g. a rail journey from Kettering to Hemel or Watford, or Wellingborough to the Cotswolds.

I would focus on getting East West Rail built and then for it to be electrified, and then worry about using it for extended routes. I don't think short DMUs should be running under wires, and I would rather a limited budget be spent on electrification and not bimodes.

 

[The Planner]

I would like 1tph EWR to reach Northampton. It needs better connections, and is a big, if overlooked place. Chicken and egg.

What connections does it allow that a change at MK/Bletchley doesn't already? Is there a big Northampton Oxford untapped market?

 

[RT4038]

What connections does it allow that a change at MK/Bletchley doesn't already? Is there a big Northampton Oxford untapped market?

It is so big that several attempts at providing through bus service have foundered due to lack of use.

 

[cle]

What connections does it allow that a change at MK/Bletchley doesn't already? Is there a big Northampton Oxford untapped market?

Your first question could be applied to any single direct service which could exist with a change!

As for Northampton-Oxford, nobody knows... there isn't 'not one' either. But it might awaken new opportunities for travel - as many of these reopening do, and exceed expectations / suppressed rail demand. And it's not just Oxford, it's Bicester too, and from Oxford, services to Reading especially but also out on the Cotswolds line, connections at Didcot etc etc - rather than a singular pair.

 

[zwk500]

Your first question could be applied to any single direct service which could exist with a change!

Not quite - the question was what journeys are better off changing at Northampton than MKC? Obviously people to Northampton itself will be better off (and possibly Long Buckby) but Rugby and beyond is likely to be better from MKC.

 

[RT4038]

Your first question could be applied to any single direct service which could exist with a change!

As for Northampton-Oxford, nobody knows... there isn't 'not one' either. But it might awaken new opportunities for travel - as many of these reopening do, and exceed expectations / suppressed rail demand. And it's not just Oxford, it's Bicester too, and from Oxford, services to Reading especially but also out on the Cotswolds line, connections at Didcot etc etc - rather than a singular pair.

Bearing in mind the sheer cost of providing rail service, I would suggest seeing how many people make the journey by changing first, and then considering through services when it is clear that there is an economical base load.

 

[cle]

Not quite - the question was what journeys are better off changing at Northampton than MKC? Obviously people to Northampton itself will be better off (and possibly Long Buckby) but Rugby and beyond is likely to be better from MKC.

I'm sure he is very happy you are speaking on his behalf - but

"What connections does it allow that a change at MK/Bletchley doesn't already?"

is much more clearly about a direct service from Northampton itself than inbound changes from Long Buckby/Rugby - obviously Northampton has no connections MKC doesn't. Part two being about the city pair/market supports this.

 

[The Planner]

Your first question could be applied to any single direct service which could exist with a change!

As for Northampton-Oxford, nobody knows... there isn't 'not one' either. But it might awaken new opportunities for travel - as many of these reopening do, and exceed expectations / suppressed rail demand. And it's not just Oxford, it's Bicester too, and from Oxford, services to Reading especially but also out on the Cotswolds line, connections at Didcot etc etc - rather than a singular pair.

If nobody knows why would you gamble on a new service? E-W phase 2 is massively loaded on a known surpressed MK Oxford demand. If there is a significant market to Northampton then it would be included already?

 

[cle]

Test and learn... the railway is a constantly evolving, moving feast... I don't think Northampton is an absolute cornerstone of EWR. But it is a solution to the lack of ability to turn 3tph in MKC that neatly - without culling (more than the Southern). It's a simple extension which might work, or might not - gamble seems a little loaded. Don't we use 'trial' ? Once in MKC, patterns might change and demand might be identifyed in the wider South Midlands based on a new ability to get to Bicester, Oxford and the West overall.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With some overcrowding on the 8 car fast services you'd probably get more benefit by extending the WCML stoppers to Northampton to free up P2 for EWR reversals than extending EWR, to be honest. It really should be possible to reverse 3tph in 2 platforms; Merseyrail routinely reverses 4tph in one at several of its termini.

 

[The Planner]

With some overcrowding on the 8 car fast services you'd probably get more benefit by extending the WCML stoppers to Northampton to free up P2 for EWR reversals than extending EWR, to be honest. It really should be possible to reverse 3tph in 2 platforms; Merseyrail routinely reverses 4tph in one at several of its termini.

Merseyrail is hardly comparable to the southern WCML.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Feb 2023 ==

Test and learn... the railway is a constantly evolving, moving feast... I don't think Northampton is an absolute cornerstone of EWR. But it is a solution to the lack of ability to turn 3tph in MKC that neatly - without culling (more than the Southern). It's a simple extension which might work, or might not - gamble seems a little loaded. Don't we use 'trial' ? Once in MKC, patterns might change and demand might be identifyed in the wider South Midlands based on a new ability to get to Bicester, Oxford and the West overall.

Thats what market studies undertaken by NRs strategic and economic planners do though.

 

[A0]

What connections does it allow that a change at MK/Bletchley doesn't already? Is there a big Northampton Oxford untapped market?

Exactly.

And the answer to your second question is 'No' - the direct Stagecoach bus which ran between Northampton and Oxford was withdrawn over 10 years ago.

 

[cle]

Merseyrail is hardly comparable to the southern WCML.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Feb 2023 ==


Thats what market studies undertaken by NRs strategic and economic planners do though.

Yes. And they iterate, especially once the service exists to MKC. It's not finite, patterns evolver, demand can grow - and inevitably, reopenings surprise us. I'm only saying it could be a thing to trial out - not strongly advocating for it or saying it solves a 'today problem'.

But it's a forgotten place, near to zero presence in the zeitgeist given its size, and a better rail service and other options (this being one of very few options to develop) might see a surprising uptick in use and interest.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Merseyrail is hardly comparable to the southern WCML.

No, but 4tph in one vs 3tph in two.

LNR presently reverse 2tph in MKC platform 2, so if they sent those to Northampton instead the two Oxfords could reverse there and the Aylesbury in the 2A bay. Easy.

But Northampton could use a bit of regeneration, so maybe you could trial it if units can be found without ordering new.

 

[The Planner]

No, but 4tph in one vs 3tph in two.

LNR presently reverse 2tph in MKC platform 2, so if they sent those to Northampton instead the two Oxfords could reverse there and the Aylesbury in the 2A bay. Easy.

But Northampton could use a bit of regeneration, so maybe you could trial it if units can be found without ordering new.

Northampton has one effective platform to terminate in from the South in 3 which is currently occupied for 30 minutes in the hour. Any extra train coming from the south is going to need 7/8 minutes as a minimum to turn back, that gets your platform occupation up to 45 minutes in the hour as well as the extra diagrams that will likely need for the 25-26 minute round trip. The paths from Bletchley to MK are pretty much fixed for E-W and require passing each other between the two. I doubt you could make it work.

 

[A0]

No, but 4tph in one vs 3tph in two.

LNR presently reverse 2tph in MKC platform 2, so if they sent those to Northampton instead the two Oxfords could reverse there and the Aylesbury in the 2A bay. Easy.

But Northampton could use a bit of regeneration, so maybe you could trial it if units can be found without ordering new.

Bit in bold - I fail to see how providing a train service to either Oxford or Aylesbury "regenerates" Northampton ?

Most of the use of Northampton station is *out* of Northampton to either MK, London or Birmingham - you can see that by looking at any of the trains arriving / departing at key times of the day. The exception are the weekends where either Cobblers or Saints are playing at home.

The key employment areas in Northampton are nowhere near the station - which means commuting by train to Northampton isn't attractive for most roles. And that's before you deal with the barking mad proposals from some to then re-rail part of the old Bedford line to Brackmills, which yes, is one of the main employment areas however disregards that most people employed on there live in Northampton - most of which isn't close to the station or places like Wellingborough, Rushden or Kettering which again rail can't address.

 

[cle]

Regeneration is lofty, although I think you're being semantic - a 'boost' might be fairer as Northampton does have pretty bad rail service.

A train to Oxford won't transform the city in isolation, but it will definitely give it better connections for various things. Shopping at Bicester and many jobs in and around Oxford, as well as education, culture, leisure and onward connections to the West of England.

One might not commute that daily (who is doing that anyway) - but for meetings, or more occasional business travel, it could be useful. Oxford has one of the healthiest economies, especially for the smaller cities.

Similarly as to why I mentioned Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough... Northampton only really has radial links out of London. Mixing that up is only a benefit to people across the South Midlands - which is a high growth area - and the many things they might do, and travel for. And drive to otherwise.

 

[The Planner]

Regeneration is lofty, although I think you're being semantic - a 'boost' might be fairer as Northampton does have pretty bad rail service.

A train to Oxford won't transform the city in isolation, but it will definitely give it better connections for various things. Shopping at Bicester and many jobs in and around Oxford, as well as education, culture, leisure and onward connections to the West of England.

One might not commute that daily (who is doing that anyway) - but for meetings, or more occasional business travel, it could be useful. Oxford has one of the healthiest economies, especially for the smaller cities.

Similarly as to why I mentioned Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough... Northampton only really has radial links out of London. Mixing that up is only a benefit to people across the South Midlands - which is a high growth area - and the many things they might do, and travel for. And drive to otherwise.

My point is that all this would have been included in the original business case for E-W and potential extension to Northampton. If Aylesbury isn't washing its face then there is no way Northampton is going to.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Regeneration is lofty, although I think you're being semantic - a 'boost' might be fairer as Northampton does have pretty bad rail service.

Northampton doesn't have a pretty bad rail service. It does lose out a bit by not being on the mainline, but it has two reasonably fast trains per hour to London, two semifast to Birmingham and peak extras. It's a fair way out, but the journey time is not dissimilar to Aylesbury which is much closer, due to the part from Leighton Buzzard to Euston mostly being non-stop or one-stop and at 110mph. Because of the 110mph running it's better connected than many other similar places in the South East, and the fares are hugely cheaper than "Market Ketteringborough" over on the MML.

There is a bit of overcrowding, but I think that isn't helped by Avanti's rubbishness. Some people will return to Avanti when it becomes worth paying the extra for again.

What it does have, though, as with most of the South East, is rail services primarily set up for getting people to London. What would be quite handy would be a wider coverage more like that found in the North, as it provides more employment opportunities and also makes it more attractive a place to start a business (though it is to be fair already very well connected by road). I guess EWR would be a start in the way it will be for Bletchley and MK.

 

[A0]

Regeneration is lofty, although I think you're being semantic - a 'boost' might be fairer as Northampton does have pretty bad rail service.

A train to Oxford won't transform the city in isolation, but it will definitely give it better connections for various things. Shopping at Bicester and many jobs in and around Oxford, as well as education, culture, leisure and onward connections to the West of England.

One might not commute that daily (who is doing that anyway) - but for meetings, or more occasional business travel, it could be useful. Oxford has one of the healthiest economies, especially for the smaller cities.

Similarly as to why I mentioned Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough... Northampton only really has radial links out of London. Mixing that up is only a benefit to people across the South Midlands - which is a high growth area - and the many things they might do, and travel for. And drive to otherwise.

Bit in bold - so once again, how does enabling people to travel from Northampton to Bicester for shopping or jobs, education or culture in Oxford "regenerate" Northampton ? All it's doing is sending people out of Northampton and encouraging them to spend time and money elsewhere - that doesn't regenerate somewhere, particularly the place people are travelling *from*.

 

[A0]

Northampton doesn't have a pretty bad rail service. It does lose out a bit by not being on the mainline, but it has two reasonably fast trains per hour to London, two semifast to Birmingham and peak extras. It's a fair way out, but the journey time is not dissimilar to Aylesbury which is much closer, due to the part from Leighton Buzzard to Euston mostly being non-stop or one-stop and at 110mph. Because of the 110mph running it's better connected than many other similar places in the South East, and the fares are hugely cheaper than "Market Ketteringborough" over on the MML.

Aylesbury's a poor comparison in many ways not least because the line-speed is low.

A better comparison are other places a similar distance from London and their relative size.

So on the ECML you've got Huntingdon - pop'n 25,000 (1/10th of Northampton) getting 2 tph on a 1h + journey time, you've got Ely - pop'n 20,000 in a similar position and on the GEML you've got Ipswich - popn 133,000 so about half Northampton getting 3tph to Liverpool Street.

And following the recent timetable changes, Northampton now has a slower service to London than either Rugby (popn 78k) or Nuneaton (popn 94k) - a long with fewer trains than Rugby.

 

[RT4038]

Northampton doesn't have a pretty bad rail service. It does lose out a bit by not being on the mainline, but it has two reasonably fast trains per hour to London, two semifast to Birmingham and peak extras. It's a fair way out, but the journey time is not dissimilar to Aylesbury which is much closer, due to the part from Leighton Buzzard to Euston mostly being non-stop or one-stop and at 110mph. Because of the 110mph running it's better connected than many other similar places in the South East, and the fares are hugely cheaper than "Market Ketteringborough" over on the MML.

There is a bit of overcrowding, but I think that isn't helped by Avanti's rubbishness. Some people will return to Avanti when it becomes worth paying the extra for again.

What it does have, though, as with most of the South East, is rail services primarily set up for getting people to London. What would be quite handy would be a wider coverage more like that found in the North, as it provides more employment opportunities and also makes it more attractive a place to start a business (though it is to be fair already very well connected by road). I guess EWR would be a start in the way it will be for Bletchley and MK.

It is rather unfortunate that (understandably) the London traffic took precedence over Northampton connectivity on the Trent Valley stopping trains.

 

[zwk500]

It is rather unfortunate that (understandably) the London traffic took precedence over Northampton connectivity on the Trent Valley stopping trains.

The number of people who could ever wish to make a journey between Tamworth or Nuneaton and Northampton is likely to fit into a Hatchback, let alone a bus.

 

[A0]

The number of people who could ever wish to make a journey between Tamworth or Nuneaton and Northampton is likely to fit into a Hatchback, let alone a bus.

In itself you are correct - but then again from Northampton such services used to provide a connection to Nuneaton - so Leicester services, Tamworth - so XC services, Stoke - so Manchester services and Crewe - Merseyside or further north with a single change that *didn't* then involve a lengthy detour via Birmingham New Street. Whereas now it's a case of running the gauntlet of changing at Rugby as well or going via New Street.