Probably worth splitting this out into a new thread, to avoid clogging up the main election thread.
Would be interesting to see what people's thoughts are on local seats and which way they will swing.
So for the general south Hampshire area:
New Forest West and East - Con hold. These have always been Conservative and are predominantly rural with only small towns.
Winchester - Lib Dem gain, with substantial swing and majority. Con majority last time was under 1000, plus incumbent Steve Brine is going anyway.
Southampton Test - Labour hold. Has been Labour since 1997, no reason for that to change.
Southampton Itchen - Labour gain. The more socially-conservative half of the city; the university for example is in Test. Even still it's the kind of seat which I suspect Boris appealed to and is much less likely to vote Tory now he's gone. Plus incumbent Royston Smith is going. Was Labour until 2015, as well.
Romsey and Southampton North - strongly swinging away from the Conservatives as it's a Remain-trending area, however the Con majority is still pretty large. I'll say Con hold, but with small majority.
Eastleigh - more difficult as it was Lib Dem for a good while. Lib Dems still control the council. However Tory majorities in recent years have been quite large, and it's perhaps the sort of seat which has trended Tory in recent years. On the other hand the MP is a first-timer and is not particularly well known. Will say Con hold, but with a much reduced majority.
Hamble Valley [NEW] - the more affluent and slightly more rural part of Eastleigh, including Hedge End. I'll say Con win, but not with a vast majority.
Fareham and Waterlooville - Braverman's seat. Con hold, sadly, though with reduced but still substantial majority.
Gosport - it seems like the sort of place Labour ought to win but they never seem to. Always been Conservative in recent times. So Con hold, but again small majority.
Portsmouth North - Mordaunt's seat. Personal popularity will work for her, I suspect, so I'm going to say she will hold it, but with only a small majority.
Portsmouth South - Labour hold. Has trended Labour in recent years and nothing to suggest that will stop now.
Havant - Con hold, with fairly large majority. Again the sort of seat Labour could have picked up but never had. A fairly socially conservative area by all accounts.
So overall I suspect the Tories will do well in this area, losing only Winchester and Itchen. But it is one of the more Tory-leaning areas of the country.
(All done without checking the odds, I will do so now and see if the bookies agree...)
Would be interesting to see what people's thoughts are on local seats and which way they will swing.
So for the general south Hampshire area:
New Forest West and East - Con hold. These have always been Conservative and are predominantly rural with only small towns.
Winchester - Lib Dem gain, with substantial swing and majority. Con majority last time was under 1000, plus incumbent Steve Brine is going anyway.
Southampton Test - Labour hold. Has been Labour since 1997, no reason for that to change.
Southampton Itchen - Labour gain. The more socially-conservative half of the city; the university for example is in Test. Even still it's the kind of seat which I suspect Boris appealed to and is much less likely to vote Tory now he's gone. Plus incumbent Royston Smith is going. Was Labour until 2015, as well.
Romsey and Southampton North - strongly swinging away from the Conservatives as it's a Remain-trending area, however the Con majority is still pretty large. I'll say Con hold, but with small majority.
Eastleigh - more difficult as it was Lib Dem for a good while. Lib Dems still control the council. However Tory majorities in recent years have been quite large, and it's perhaps the sort of seat which has trended Tory in recent years. On the other hand the MP is a first-timer and is not particularly well known. Will say Con hold, but with a much reduced majority.
Hamble Valley [NEW] - the more affluent and slightly more rural part of Eastleigh, including Hedge End. I'll say Con win, but not with a vast majority.
Fareham and Waterlooville - Braverman's seat. Con hold, sadly, though with reduced but still substantial majority.
Gosport - it seems like the sort of place Labour ought to win but they never seem to. Always been Conservative in recent times. So Con hold, but again small majority.
Portsmouth North - Mordaunt's seat. Personal popularity will work for her, I suspect, so I'm going to say she will hold it, but with only a small majority.
Portsmouth South - Labour hold. Has trended Labour in recent years and nothing to suggest that will stop now.
Havant - Con hold, with fairly large majority. Again the sort of seat Labour could have picked up but never had. A fairly socially conservative area by all accounts.
So overall I suspect the Tories will do well in this area, losing only Winchester and Itchen. But it is one of the more Tory-leaning areas of the country.
(All done without checking the odds, I will do so now and see if the bookies agree...)
