Elizabeth line - ASLEF Strikes (now resolved)

[43066]

Rail salaries will soon be out of control and there will be a crunch point. It’s a self perpetuating cycle of higher demands … no matter what inflation is.

I’m not sure this is actually true, though? Average railway wages have fallen relative to inflation over the past few years, and are also outstripped by average earnings in the wider economy (wage growth currently 5% per annum plus).

Of course many staff (myself included) had five years with no pay rise, during the cost of living crisis and a period of exceptionally high inflation. The national pay offer we received hasn’t fully restored us to where we were in 2019.

That said it’s true that Elizabeth Line drivers have had it better than most due to the TfL affiliation.

People get hung up on "4 day week" a lot, but that's compressed hours into a small number of days, hence longer shifts than your average 35-36hr worker. So swings and roundabouts.

This is a very good point. People imagine a four day week to mean 9-5 Monday Thursday, whereas it’s an average four day week, and that means five or six day runs of days on, working two out of three weekends, and extreme early and late shift times.

 

[JamesT]

I’m not sure this is actually true, though? Average railway wages have fallen relative to inflation over the past few years, and are also outstripped by average earnings in the wider economy (wage growth currently 5% per annum plus).

Of course many staff (myself included) had five years with no pay rise, during the cost of living crisis and a period of exceptionally high inflation. The national pay offer we received hasn’t fully restored us to where we were in 2019.

That said it’s true that Elizabeth Line drivers have had it better than most due to the TfL affiliation.

https://www.euronews.com/travel/202...y-train-drivers-the-most-and-the-least-in-eur is a couple of years old, but I'm struggling to find the source dataset.

In 2021, the median gross annual pay of train and tram drivers was £59,031 (€68,673) in the UK, up from £42,484 (€48,951) in 2011. This is a 39 per cent increase in nominal terms, meaning inflation is not taken into account.
Between 2011 and 2021, the median gross annual salary of rail transport operatives increased from £34,816 (€40,116) to £47,993 (€55,832) - a rise of 38 per cent.

The BoE inflation calculator says inflation in that period was 20%, so rail wages were considerably ahead. If there's then been some stasis that's merely pulling it back towards the average.

 

[whoosh]

People get hung up on "4 day week" a lot, but that's compressed hours into a small number of days, hence longer shifts than your average 35-36hr worker. So swings and roundabouts.

Otherwise I suggest reading the rest of the thread which gives some explanation as to why this is happening. Everything is relative.

It's also more productive than a 5 day week, as you only have the 'booking on time' for reading notices etc. and a PNB four times a week instead of five for the same hours at work. That's one day's unproductive time that can be productive in a four day week.

Never gets mentioned in the papers though.

Also, any of the, "It beggars belief!" brigade never mention the three day week some nurses work (nor their generous unsocial hours payments in their not like for like comparisons) despite bringing them up every time train driver pay gets raised, or the three day week many Signallers work as another role on the railway.

Ryanair pilots work a 3.88 day week on average with their 5 on 4 off pattern.

Any Firefighter dispute though, and they make sure to tell you they 'only' work 4 on 4 off. Despite one of those 'off' days containing eight hours work!

I’m not sure this is actually true, though? Average railway wages have fallen relative to inflation over the past few years, and are also outstripped by average earnings in the wider economy (wage growth currently 5% per annum plus).

It's hysteria. I've had several below inflation pay rises as a train driver over 20 years - so including the so called good times, before COVID.

 

[43066]

https://www.euronews.com/travel/202...y-train-drivers-the-most-and-the-least-in-eur is a couple of years old, but I'm struggling to find the source dataset.

The BoE inflation calculator says inflation in that period was 20%, so rail wages were considerably ahead. If there's then been some stasis that's merely pulling it back towards the average.

Look at the data for UK train drivers from 2019 to 2025. You’ll (AIUI) find it has fallen both in real terms, and compared with growth of average earnings in the UK.

Your figures include 2011 onwards, when inflation was much lower, and rises were either in line with inflation, and only significantly more than that when changes in working practices (taking on dispatch risk etc) or productivity improvements were agreed.

It's hysteria. I've had several below inflation pay rises as a train driver over 20 years - so including the so called good times, before COVID.

Agreed. Austerity also ensured that other sectors suffered significant real terms pay cuts over the last 15 years, and that’s then used as a stick to beat train drivers with.

 

[dk1]

This is a very good point. People imagine a four day week to mean 9-5 Monday Thursday, whereas it’s an average four day week, and that means five or six day runs of days on, working two out of three weekends, and extreme early and late shift times.

So very very true. Even my manager giving me a recent ride out said to me that I don’t blame you for thinking of going early. He admitted that he would too if he had to do the awful shifts we have these days.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just to remind everyone that this thread is for discussion of the Aslef strike on the Elizabeth Line. If anyone wants to discuss anything else then please start a new thread elsewhere.

 

[Mwanesh]

It's also more productive than a 5 day week, as you only have the 'booking on time' for reading notices etc. and a PNB four times a week instead of five for the same hours at work. That's one day's unproductive time that can be productive in a four day week.

Never gets mentioned in the papers though.

Also, any of the, "It beggars belief!" brigade never mention the three day week some nurses work (nor their generous unsocial hours payments in their not like for like comparisons) despite bringing them up every time train driver pay gets raised, or the three day week many Signallers work as another role on the railway.

Ryanair pilots work a 3.88 day week on average with their 5 on 4 off pattern.

Any Firefighter dispute though, and they make sure to tell you they 'only' work 4 on 4 off. Despite one of those 'off' days containing eight hours work!


It's hysteria. I've had several below inflation pay rises as a train driver over 20 years - so including the so called good times, before COVID.

These are different scenarios .How many hours do train drivers work per shift.My missus starts at 7pm and finishes at 7am .I doubt any train driver works those sort of hours .

 

[12LDA28C]

Rail salaries will soon be out of control and there will be a crunch point. It’s a self perpetuating cycle of higher demands … no matter what inflation is.

Really? Were they ‘out of control’ before Covid when drivers generally received above inflation rises every year and nobody batted an eyelid because passenger numbers were growing, revenue was rising and strikes were generally unheard of?

 

[Horizon22]

These are different scenarios .How many hours do train drivers work per shift.My missus starts at 7pm and finishes at 7am .I doubt any train driver works those sort of hours .

It doesn't necessarily matter. The number of hours per week is the ultimate measurement, especially in rostered work where this might be calculated over many weeks.

 

[baz962]

It doesn't necessarily matter. The number of hours per week is the ultimate measurement, especially in rostered work where this might be calculated over many weeks.

To be fair I don't generally agree with non railway people as a driver when it comes to our renumeration and t&c's , but this ain't a hill to go out on .

 

[InkyScrolls]

These are different scenarios .How many hours do train drivers work per shift.My missus starts at 7pm and finishes at 7am .I doubt any train driver works those sort of hours .

You would be surprised.

 

[Tw99]

Before Covid, the economy was in a much better state and there was a veneer of privatisation to obscure where the money was coming from.

Now the railways being (sort of) renationalised, it's clear that the money for railway salaries has to come from the same diminishing pot as all other public spending. So it's not surprising if people who don't work for the railways think that there may be higher priorities for spending money on.

 

[43066]

Now the railways being (sort of) renationalised, it's clear that the money for railway salaries has to come from the same diminishing pot as all other public spending. So it's not surprising if people who don't work for the railways think that there may be higher priorities for spending money on.

Not quite as simple as that, as the railway also generates its own revenue from ticket sales, and its output is measured in economic contribution rather than purely financial “profit”.

In terms of this specific dispute, the sort-of-nationalisation of the wider network doesn’t really affect TfL, which is continuing its sort-of-nationalised concession model that has operated for many years now, and is roughly analogous to the National Rail Contracts the remaining TOCs are currently operating under.

The Elizabeth line has comfortably exceeded all revenue forecasts, and that’s without considering the wider economic contribution it makes, so it’s clear that telling the staff “there’s no money” isn’t going to wash. This is also why it’s imperative that the dispute is resolved, as the outages will come with a cost to the wider economy which is far excess of any small increase in the pay award.

I remain optimistic that a solution will be reached.

 

[Carlisle]

The Elizabeth line has comfortably exceeded all revenue forecasts, and that’s without considering the wider economic contribution it makes,

That may be true but it’ll be down to a whole host of different grades & possibly contractors, essential in achieving a largely seamless daily operation , not just drivers

 

[43066]

That may be true but it’ll be down to a whole host of different grades essential in achieving a seamless daily timetable, not just drivers

And if those other grades go into dispute presumably threads will be created. However this one is about an ASLEF dispute, and ASLEF only represent drivers, so I’m not sure what point you’re making?

 

[greatkingrat]

Not quite as simple as that, as the railway also generates its own revenue from ticket sales, and its output is measured in economic contribution rather than purely financial “profit”.

In terms of this specific dispute, the sort-of-nationalisation of the wider network doesn’t really affect TfL, which is continuing its sort-of-nationalised concession model that has operated for many years now, and is roughly analogous to the National Rail Contracts the remaining TOCs are currently operating under.

The Elizabeth line has comfortably exceeded all revenue forecasts, and that’s without considering the wider economic contribution it makes, so it’s clear that telling the staff “there’s no money” isn’t going to wash. This is also why it’s imperative that the dispute is resolved, as the outages will come with a cost to the wider economy which is far excess of any small increase in the pay award.

I remain optimistic that a solution will be reached.

So you think drivers on busy urban profitable lines should get bigger pay increases than drivers on heavily subsidised rural basketcase lines?

 

[43066]

So you think drivers on busy urban profitable lines should get bigger pay increases than drivers on heavily subsidised rural basketcase lines?

Not necessarily, as I thought I had made clear in the first paragraph of the post you quoted. However it’s true that the Elizabeth Line (which this thread is discussing!) is unusual in that it’s exceeded financial forecasts by such a large margin.

I’ll refrain from posting further unless/until there’s a development, as this thread is just going to descend into pointless bickering.

 

[GordonT]

So you think drivers on busy urban profitable lines should get bigger pay increases than drivers on heavily subsidised rural basketcase lines?

To an extent this can be seen applying in the bus industry but not without some acrimony from the lower paid contingent.

 

[Carlisle]

To an extent this can be seen applying in the bus industry but not without some acrimony from the lower paid contingent.

I understand from relatives on the busses individual garages are often on different conditions so more challenging to organise company wide disputes than for ASLEF doing likewise on the Elizabeth Line etc.

 

[185143]

You would be surprised.

Indeed. I saw a driver a couple of weeks ago who I knew at around midnight. Said hello and asked if he'd just finished, like you do.

Nope, he was just booking on for a 9hr something turn.

As said above, people get hung up on the "4 day week" but if that was his 1st day on shift, the previous day isn't exactly going to be a productive day off is it. Most 9-5 office workers would (rightly!) Expect that their Saturday and Sunday will not be impeded in any way by their working hours on Friday and Monday. Drivers and railway staff in general do not have that luxury.

 

[Horizon22]

To be fair I don't generally agree with non railway people as a driver when it comes to our renumeration and t&c's , but this ain't a hill to go out on .

It's true of any rostered work in any industry. You might do 12h / 8h / 6h shifts or a mix of all of them and all have their pros and cons. It is worse if it involves more extreme shifts (more nights, very early starts and late finishes etc.) as on your days off you are likely to feel less 'rested' but nobody is "working less" unless their actual annualised hours or hr/week are substantially different.

That may be true but it’ll be down to a whole host of different grades & possibly contractors, essential in achieving a largely seamless daily operation , not just drivers

And other grades are already in dispute or have only just avoided them after concessions were made.

 

[BigBus]

Not necessarily, as I thought I had made clear in the first paragraph of the post you quoted. However it’s true that the Elizabeth Line (which this thread is discussing!) is unusual in that it’s exceeded financial forecasts by such a large margin.

I’ll refrain from posting further unless/until there’s a development, as this thread is just going to descend into pointless bickering.

agree with you, The Lizzie line is already at maximum capacity including peak service every 5 minutes. Trains departing Heathrow were already full by the time they arrived outside on the Great Western Line. I don’t think anyone thought it would be that popular.

 

[Horizon22]

I don’t think anyone thought it would be that popular.

I think its taken some by surprise, but I definitely reading something from either TfL senior staff or commentators who said it would be 'full as soon as it opened'.

The forecasts were a bit dented by Covid of course - https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/p...-travel-in-london-on-its-two-year-anniversary

During its first full year of operation, the Elizabeth line saw more than 150 million passenger journeys. In 2023/24, there were 210 million journeys made on the Elizabeth line, a dramatic increase. Passenger demand is already above the post-pandemic expectations for the end of the decade and is expected to increase further.

 

[jamboree7123]

From a traveler's point of view:

The Elizabeth Line was a game-changing godsend for a lot of people considering traveling to the UK by air. From Heathrow, the Piccadilly Line is too crowded, too slow, hard to bring extra luggage on, and doesn't go all the way across the center of London, so usually requires awkward transfers at complicated stations (like Green Park, etc.), which are hard to navigate with luggage. And Heathrow Express is just an overpriced ripoff, in most people' estimation; huge extra expense to maybe save a couple minutes. But the Elizabeth Line is fast, inexpensive, and goes right to and through the center of London. So when even considering a trip to the UK, the existence of the Elizabeth Line plays a big role in many people's decision-making.

Knowing all this ahead of time, I even always arrange my lodging to be very near an Elizabeth Line station, to enable easy transit upon arrival when I am exhausted with luggage, and then swift and reliable transit to the airport on departure day, when it is stressful and I want to get to the airport on time to catch a plane.

So, just as I have done on previous trips, I only even bought my plane tickets for my upcoming trip after confirming accomodation adjacent to an Elizabeth Line station.

The irony?

I'll be arriving at Heathrow on February 27, then departing from Heathrow on March 10th. So on BOTH DAYS the Elizabeth Line won't be running due to the strike. So all my arrangements and planning were for nothing. As usual.

Why "as usual"? Because this is the third trip in a row where I have made similar arrangements, and on all three trips, the Elizabeth Line wasn't running or had huge delays on the days I needed to use it. On my previous trip, got to the E Line stop at Heathrow only to learn trains weren't running due to some technical issue, and on the trip before that there was also a strike on the day I arrived and massive delays for some unknown reason on departure day, causing me to have to rush to the airport by other slower and more roundabout routes. Now, on this trip, thanks to my "clever" planning, I'm staying somewhere particularly inconvenient for transit from and to Heathrow, due to the strike.

It has gotten to the point where the Elizabeth Line, for all its miraculous positives, has become just too unreliable to count on as a dependable mode of transit. Too many strike days, too many technical glitches, too many delays.

For these (admittedly self-centered) reasons, I find the strike very annoying, as do almost all travelers and tourists. Unions were formed back during the industrial revolution when lower-class workers were paid pennies per day for dangerous work. But now -- rail workers get paid very upscale salaries already, and their work as drivers is not particularly dangerous, so unions serve no function other than as a tool to extort more money from the government by threatening to cripple the economy. Even when offered a large pay raise, then reject it and always demand more. More more more. It has gotten out of control, frankly.

From the perspective of travelers and tourists, we feel that we can no longer ever assume that the Elizabeth Line will actually be running on the days we would need it, so it might as well not exist when it comes to travel planning and decision-making. It's not the only factor when making travel decisions, obviously, but it can tip the scales. I do avoid traveling to airports that have poor public transit connections, as do many travelers, if we have the option of going elsewhere. So, the overall economy of the UK will be negatively impacted by the strike in ways that aren't directly measurable.

I have no magic answer for how to deal with strikes and unions, just adding in another voice to the conversation.

 

[rd749249]

Indeed. I saw a driver a couple of weeks ago who I knew at around midnight. Said hello and asked if he'd just finished, like you do.

Nope, he was just booking on for a 9hr something turn.

As said above, people get hung up on the "4 day week" but if that was his 1st day on shift, the previous day isn't exactly going to be a productive day off is it. Most 9-5 office workers would (rightly!) Expect that their Saturday and Sunday will not be impeded in any way by their working hours on Friday and Monday. Drivers and railway staff in general do not have that luxury.

Exactly. 9.5hr shifts are tough and commonplace in order to get that 34 hour average over a 10 week period. It is hard and demanding work when you spend a lot of your day driving under caution and particularly at the end of a shift, or finding yourself at the wrong of the line when you've got little more than 12 hours to your next turn of duty. My union is doing a fantastic job in trying to keep the company honest. We need more drivers, not drivers doing so much overtime just to keep the thing running, ending up absolutely knackered and finding more of the workforce medically restricted or off sick as a result.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think its taken some by surprise, but I definitely reading something from either TfL senior staff or commentators who said it would be 'full as soon as it opened'.

Yes, TfL did an interview on London Reconnections well before opening (perhaps even before the original planned opening where they said they it would be likely to be full in short order. The delayed opening played into that, as many people will have relocated jobs / home shortly before in the planned opening (and in the relocating home instance, to make some £££ out of the property market) and therefore there was a much quicker swap to it as many intending users had already built their life around it.

Why "as usual"? Because this is the third trip in a row where I have made similar arrangements, and on all three trips, the Elizabeth Line wasn't running or had huge delays on the days I needed to use it.

You have been very unlucky. Counter factual - I have travelled to / from Heathrow by the Elizabeth Line 6 times in the last two years, and it’s all been fine.

 

[dk1]

100% agree with you, The Lizzie line is already at maximum capacity including peak service every 5 minutes. Trains departing Heathrow were already full by the time they arrived outside on the Great Western Line. I don’t think anyone thought it would be that popular.

The central core is way above that frequency with up to 24tph.

 

[PyrahnaRanger]

Also, any of the, "It beggars belief!" brigade never mention the three day week some nurses work (nor their generous unsocial hours payments in their not like for like comparisons) despite bringing them up every time train driver pay gets raised,

Yes, but I suspect that's three days of 12 hour shifts, plus half an hour unpaid to get changed before shift and half an hour unpaid after shift doing handover and getting changed... Provided all goes well on the shift. It's not uncommon if things are kicking off for staff to be delayed. My other half (as I've said a few times before) is a midwife, and sometimes gets delayed a couple of extra hours on a shift writing notes (did you know they can be sued for up to 25 years after a birth?) Their week runs Monday-Sunday, and shifts can be anywhere in that week - so you could be days Sunday, then straight onto nights the next day as it's a different week!

Counter factual - I have travelled to / from Heathrow by the Elizabeth Line 6 times in the last two years, and it’s all been fine.

It's always been fine when I've used it. Even the time there was a bloke with a lawn mower on it!

 

[Horizon22]

The central core is way above that frequency with up to 24tph.

But from/to either the GEML or GWML it’s 12tph max. The 24tph comes from the merging together of course.

 

[BigBus]

Mayor urges 'amicable' resolution to stop Elizabeth line strikes

Asked about the current pay dispute, the mayor declined to say whether train drivers should accept an offer which would take their annual salary to £75,700

www.standard.co.uk

According to the London Mayor/TFL, they want the dispute to be resolved. The incumbent MTR are the ones being difficult. Surely If TFL are encouraging both Aslef and MTR resolve their issues then MTR will not have any legal issues with GTS during the handover, If Aslef historical T/C are accepted between both parties.