First Essex major changes in February

[TheGrandWazoo]

From their local behaviour, I suspect that Arriva Herts & Essex/Shires (now run I think with the Kent op so it surrounds London across the Home Counties) aren't keen on rural/subsidised routes (like Stagecoach) concentrating on urban and inter-urban routes where there is significant commuter traffic. Maybe it's the beholden argument, not masters in their own house. First and Go Ahead (at least in the East) don't perhaps have so much option!

Arriva Essex seem to be doing OK with their Stansted, Colchester P&R and other Essex ops, but I believe are reviewing across Herts/Essex (with some timetable changes due at Harlow in March) so we might find out more in due course. I suspect it's tweaking, rather than disposals or significant withdrawals. Rather like Stagecoach East, again; or indeed First Essex, actually! So perhaps everyone is treading water! Boring, but sensible?

Given that Arriva sold off Colchester to TGM, regaining only through the purchase of that group, they haven't had much ambition in developing their Colchester operations. Not only that, when Arriva did buy TGM (and regain Colchester), they then sold the Haverhill operation so not much indication that they'd like to build up the Essex operations. That probably explains why Hedingham sold out to Go Ahead - Arriva wouldn't be interested and First would've been lower terms.

Therefore, I suspect you're right!

 

[DragonEast]

Given that Arriva sold off Colchester to TGM, regaining only through the purchase of that group, they haven't had much ambition in developing their Colchester operations. Not only that, when Arriva did buy TGM (and regain Colchester), they then sold the Haverhill operation so not much indication that they'd like to build up the Essex operations. That probably explains why Hedingham sold out to Go Ahead - Arriva wouldn't be interested and First would've been lower terms.

Therefore, I suspect you're right!

Yeah, where exactly would you have ambition in developing operations based at Colchester? Arriva do the former municipal daytime urban runs and have gained the the Park and Ride, and the Braintree-Stanstead-Stortford-Harlow commuter link which I suspect is all they want. I think they've kept out of the price wars around the uni too. They do a single route out to the Tendring peninsula, but that seems to match their Herts operation, the odd subsidised route - they don't compete aggressively for tendered routes, much the same it seems as Stagecoach East. (The Braintree bit and Harlow-Chelmsford were former First failures, as was Stortford/Harlow much earlier in ENOC days). They actually encircle First Essex, which when you realise where the major local jobs growth is . . .

First have the rest around Colchester, a few runs shared with Hedingham noted above and Brightlingsea (no accident with either of them); and almost all the subsidised stuff, but that's hardly an ambition, surely? Clacton is hardly thriving apart from pensioner business, Constable country a bus graveyard as both the First companies found (not unexpected as populated by green hogwash academics), and anything to do with the A12 a bleedin' nightmare! Even Go-Ahead wouldn't buy Ipswich Buses (at least at the price sought) apparently, so they do have some sense left! Hedingham were historically First's (Eastern National) main competitor across North Essex (before Stephensons' growth) so there might have been a competition issue or First might just have been a bit complacent! Stephensons are the (unsurprising) miracle: they turn a decent profit from subsidised business, the Haverhill-based ops and other First withdrawals! Run, I think, by a former First MD, who clearly learnt a thing or two (about how not to do it, perhaps?)!

Of course it's easier to run a quality network with a quality fleet, but matching the two optimally still takes some skill!

 

[DragonEast]

Just a neat coincidence to see the two pieces of news in the same week: Witham announces an increase in its employment base by 25% as First announce the withdrawal of the 72 Chelmsford-Witham service. Planning for the future? Yes, I know it served the housing estates not the employment areas, anyway!

 

[overthewater]

Just a neat coincidence to see the two pieces of news in the same week: Witham announces an increase in its employment base by 25% as First announce the withdrawal of the 72 Chelmsford-Witham service. Planning for the future? Yes, I know it served the housing estates not the employment areas, anyway!

How is that planning for the future?

 

[Volvodart]

If they already had a service, they would not get developers funding!

 

[Busaholic]

If they already had a service, they would not get developers funding!

You cynic, you.

 

[overthewater]

That's pretty bad, surly there would still get more funding if there had to be divert the service else where in the town? Also there no guarantees First will get the funding, Stephens could end up getting it.

 

[Volvodart]

Stephens could end up getting it.

Of course, there is nothing stopping them starting the service without funding!

 

[DragonEast]

Hold yer 'orses! I thought First were trying to reduce the fleet, not increase it? Though if they put too many customers off and lose income, then presumably they'll have to reduce it even further! As you say all grist to Stephensons' mill (and the rest, nationwide!) But I suspect First think they've been clever by cutting only the Witham end of the route, and doing one of their famous route diversions to cover the Chelmsford leg - so the best a competitor would get would be half a route. The trouble is that keep on reducing the network footprint . . . haven't we been there before with First?

In Essex at least, I suspect First have made a policy decision to mitigate risk by reducing the commercial network footprint, and aggressively expanding into tendered routes, with their guaranteed income, at least where they can compliment their commercial network. Whether a wise move, or not, only time will tell. But at least it's different to the rest of the majors, I suspect! To me, it seems more in imitation of the cowboys of yore!

The interesting bit is that that anecdotally it looks to me that since the withdrawal became a prospect the bit towards Witham has been getting more passengers than ever (and often more than First's retained 71 that runs via main roads only) . . . in anticipation, perhaps?

 

[overthewater]

Yet the frequency over that section of the route was mainly a 30mins headways for many years. Wasn't it introduced to cover the old 132 service?

 

[DragonEast]

Yet the frequency over that section of the route was mainly a 30mins headways for many years. Wasn't it introduced to cover the old 132 service?

The logic of First Essex has long escaped me. Others will know more, but the 72 (Chelmsford-Boreham-Witham) replaced the 132(?) which I think ran Witham-Braintree-Halstead (now replaced by Stephensons 38) upon the downgrading of the Braintree depot to an outstation being one of two interurban services I think they had left (with a couple of town services from which First also withdrew). A few years before that First ran Chelmsford-Boreham-Witham-Braintree, and Halstead was served by the daily 352 from Chelmsford, now a subsidised route running from Chelmsford evenings and Sunday only. So it's a route with a history of being messed about. Stephensons, as always, have done a decent job on the bit they have taken over, but don't run commercially into the big town of Chelmsford, in competition with First.

The frequency of First's longstanding Chelmsford-Witham-Colchester route was doubled to half-hourly; and the half hourly 72 added, as far as Witham a couple of years ago, to the incredulity of all the locals, though it ran round Boreham village and through the newer Witham housing estates whereas the 71 now keeps to the main roads. As a new service it had no publicity, so traffic has unsurprisingly taken time to grow. Its replacement, a modified extension of the urban 40 will run only as far as Boreham, but still serve Broomfield hospital at Chelmsford at the other end, again half-hourly weekday daytimes.

Bluntly, it looks as though locally First run routes to fit their PVR rather than the other way around! So last time they swopped the Witham to Halstead leg for the route to Chelmsford - the 72 (changing the base depot from Braintree); after they had abandoned the same route between Witham and Chelmsford as not renumerative a few years earlier for the now-abandoned commercial extension to Halstead!

From February they will run the 40 half hourly by the same route as the 72 between Chelmsford and Boreham only. As a resident I don't know what Boreham, the smallest village along the route, has done to deserve this fate! Larger villages around Chelmsford (and even most of the towns) have a single route half hourly frequency. But it meets the latest PVR target, no doubt. How long it stays like this for is anyone's guess! Within Chelmsford the same sort of jiggling is taking place, with route and numbering changes across the urban area I can only assume to save a few buses. There doesn't appear to be any other logic as it all gets more confusing with more route variations and sub-numbering! The most favourable explanation is that they are contorting themselves to maintain coverage and frequency, though perhaps instead of meeting the needs of the passengers?

Final thoughts on the 72. It arguably doesn't make sense for First to run a Witham local service. That may be a better job for Stephensons (or even Go-Ahead's local incarnation Hedingham, though they may have other problems on their plate). But First chose to do so, perhaps wrongly, so they now owe a duty of care to the passengers who depend on them. If they can't run the service, then to find someone else to do so and hand over the reins seamlessly. They've left it too late in the day. We know. That's their choice. Not ours. Now they have to live with the consequences. Life is about more than "playing it by the book". For all of us. We have chosen to run "public" services privately, which is fine, but the private sector companies that choose this business have a higher duty of care than the public sector once had. Our expectations have risen, as they should. If the managers in charge can't appreciate that, then First need to find some who will. The world isn't short of them. In the modern world managers have to learn that the customers "own" the company, as much as the workers, the shareholders, or the bankers. They all have to be respected, and kept informed. The managers are accountable. Whatever your problems, you can't let the passengers suffer. It has to be the first Commandment ranking alongside profitability; for without the first there is no second.

 

[overthewater]

I have had dig out some more timetables, that 72 bug me about being around at the same times as 131/132

Feb 2007:
* 71 Hourly: Colchesters - Witham - Boreham - Chelmsford
* 72 every 30mins Braintree - witham -Boreham - Chelmsford

Feb 2009:
131/132: (Gershwin Boulevard,) Witham - Braintree
* 71 Hourly: Colchesters - Witham - Boreham - Chelmsford
* 72 Hourly: Morrisons - witham - Boreham - Chelmsford

I forgot there been a service that served bottom half of the town for years.

 

[DragonEast]

Given that Arriva sold off Colchester to TGM, regaining only through the purchase of that group, they haven't had much ambition in developing their Colchester operations. Not only that, when Arriva did buy TGM (and regain Colchester), they then sold the Haverhill operation so not much indication that they'd like to build up the Essex operations. That probably explains why Hedingham sold out to Go Ahead - Arriva wouldn't be interested and First would've been lower terms.

Therefore, I suspect you're right!

If it weren't for the Competition Commission I suspect it'd make sense for Arriva to take over the Chelmsford urban services (which are by common consent a mess) and most of their inter-urbans; and for First to take over Arriva's residual Colchester "island" completing (and rationalising) their local network. Arriva would then have a complete home counties "ring" where they know and understand the market, and Colchester could be amalgamated with First Ipswich. I suspect the independents would benefit too, as Arriva live happily alongside them elsewhere and as we discussed before seem to concentrate on what they do best, rather than First's jack-of-all-trades. Arriva Essex Stansted operation could be run wholly from Harlow.The Commission keep the politicians happy, but do they do anything for the passengers? If they didn't exist (except to deal with blatant market rigging which is where we started) what would be the shape of First operations nationally? Would they be healthier? At the moment I suspect that what keeps First going in Chelmsford and Arriva in Colchester is the respective Park and Rides! Fair exchange?

At the moment it looks like the ambition of First Chelmsford is just to keep Arriva at bay as they tread water waiting for something to turn up presumably, though Arriva have I think the only non-First commercial operation that serves the town (sorry, City ), from Harlow, and First's only town withdrawal is from from the town section of that route. The traditional dance that the two of them do elsewhere in Essex. Basildon and Hadleigh make a residual operation (as they formerly did under the Thamesway umbrella) and could handle the X10/X30 if First are that bothered, as they already do half of it anyway. The Council stuff is short term contracts anyway, I believe (though extendable).

To me, all the Competition Commission seem to have achieved is to fossilise the industry, when it needs to adapt to change. Popular with the enthusiasts no doubt; and the politicians, who like an easy life and don't want anything to change (unless they can make money out of it, apparently)!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If it weren't for the Competition Commission I suspect it'd make sense for Arriva to take over the Chelmsford urban services (which are by common consent a mess) and most of their inter-urbans; and for First to take over Arriva's residual Colchester "island" completing (and rationalising) their local network. Arriva would then have a complete home counties "ring" where they know and understand the market, and Colchester could be amalgamated with First Ipswich. I suspect the independents would benefit too, as Arriva live happily alongside them elsewhere and as we discussed before seem to concentrate on what they do best, rather than First's jack-of-all-trades. Arriva Essex Stansted operation could be run wholly from Harlow.The Commission keep the politicians happy, but do they do anything for the passengers? If they didn't exist (except to deal with blatant market rigging which is where we started) what would be the shape of First operations nationally? Would they be healthier? At the moment I suspect that what keeps First going in Chelmsford and Arriva in Colchester is the respective Park and Rides! Fair exchange?

At the moment it looks like the ambition of First Chelmsford is just to keep Arriva at bay as they tread water waiting for something to turn up presumably, though Arriva have I think the only non-First commercial operation that serves the town (sorry, City ), from Harlow, and First's only town withdrawal is from from the town section of that route. The traditional dance that the two of them do elsewhere in Essex. Basildon and Hadleigh make a residual operation (as they formerly did under the Thamesway umbrella) and could handle the X10/X30 if First are that bothered, as they already do half of it anyway. The Council stuff is short term contracts anyway, I believe (though extendable).

To me, all the Competition Commission seem to have achieved is to fossilise the industry, when it needs to adapt to change. Popular with the enthusiasts no doubt; and the politicians, who like an easy life and don't want anything to change (unless they can make money out of it, apparently)!

Don't agree with that - Arriva have shown precious little ambition with Essex - see the various machinations with Harlow and Colchester, and the contraction of the operations elsewhere in the former Shires business.

Perhaps it is more that First are looking to undermine the Go Ahead operations (nicely loss making) and wouldn't be too hurt if Arriva sought to exit Colchester either!

 

[Cesarcollie]

If it weren't for the Competition Commission I suspect it'd make sense for Arriva to take over the Chelmsford urban services (which are by common consent a mess) and most of their inter-urbans; and for First to take over Arriva's residual Colchester "island" completing (and rationalising) their local network. Arriva would then have a complete home counties "ring" where they know and understand the market, and Colchester could be amalgamated with First Ipswich. I suspect the independents would benefit too, as Arriva live happily alongside them elsewhere and as we discussed before seem to concentrate on what they do best, rather than First's jack-of-all-trades. Arriva Essex Stansted operation could be run wholly from Harlow.The Commission keep the politicians happy, but do they do anything for the passengers? If they didn't exist (except to deal with blatant market rigging which is where we started) what would be the shape of First operations nationally? Would they be healthier? At the moment I suspect that what keeps First going in Chelmsford and Arriva in Colchester is the respective Park and Rides! Fair exchange?

At the moment it looks like the ambition of First Chelmsford is just to keep Arriva at bay as they tread water waiting for something to turn up presumably, though Arriva have I think the only non-First commercial operation that serves the town (sorry, City ), from Harlow, and First's only town withdrawal is from from the town section of that route. The traditional dance that the two of them do elsewhere in Essex. Basildon and Hadleigh make a residual operation (as they formerly did under the Thamesway umbrella) and could handle the X10/X30 if First are that bothered, as they already do half of it anyway. The Council stuff is short term contracts anyway, I believe (though extendable).

To me, all the Competition Commission seem to have achieved is to fossilise the industry, when it needs to adapt to change. Popular with the enthusiasts no doubt; and the politicians, who like an easy life and don't want anything to change (unless they can make money out of it, apparently)!

I believe we're all 'over thinking' this. The plc's are governed by the shareholders' desire to make a profit in the short-term. It is this rather than any long term strategy which will be dictating what goes on.....

 

[overthewater]

Perhaps it is more that First are looking to undermine the Go Ahead operations (nicely loss making) and wouldn't be too hurt if Arriva sought to exit Colchester either!

The only people Arriva could sell off Colcherster to would be Go Ahead.. mind you if there bolt it loss makers then who knows.. First can't touch them either way.

I dont think people are over thinking this .

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I believe we're all 'over thinking' this. The plc's are governed by the shareholders' desire to make a profit in the short-term. It is this rather than any long term strategy which will be dictating what goes on.....

Day to day is certainly the pre-eminent consideration but, in the West, it was clear that First had a very definite strategy in looking to reshape their business. They got rid of the gangrenous limb of Plymouth (without closing down), removed their main competitor in Cornwall in Western Greyhound, sent Webberbus to the wall in Somerset, and have done a real job on Rotala in Bristol and Bath.

I just don't see Arriva suddenly changing their record in Essex.

 

[Cesarcollie]

Day to day is certainly the pre-eminent consideration but, in the West, it was clear that First had a very definite strategy in looking to reshape their business. They got rid of the gangrenous limb of Plymouth (without closing down), removed their main competitor in Cornwall in Western Greyhound, sent Webberbus to the wall in Somerset, and have done a real job on Rotala in Bristol and Bath.

I just don't see Arriva suddenly changing their record in Essex.

Agree up to a point - though I think Western Greyhound removed themselves. Arriva will not be in expansion mode (aside from winning the odd tender) - but I don't think Go Ahead are either given recent results, and their track record in East Anglia....

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The only people Arriva could sell off Colcherster to would be Go Ahead.. mind you if there bolt it loss makers then who knows.. First can't touch them either way.

I dont think people are over thinking this .

They do and they are.

TBH, the Colchester operation of Arriva is hardly a substantial one now but I don't envisage any great change

 

[Cesarcollie]

They do and they are.

TBH, the Colchester operation of Arriva is hardly a substantial one now but I don't envisage any great change

Amazingly they have just taken over the (1 vehicle) Braintree Freeport bus shuttle service previously run by Regal, who have ceased operations.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Agree up to a point - though I think Western Greyhound removed themselves. Arriva will not be in expansion mode (aside from winning the odd tender) - but I don't think Go Ahead are either given recent results, and their track record in East Anglia....

First began targeting Western Greyhound when they took work in the Helston and Penzance areas as well as the Truro P&R even before their two notable fires. However, once it became clear that they were struggling, First didn't just wait but stabbed them in the front with new registrations .

I'm with you - Go Ahead doesn't seem like expansion is likely given how bad the losses have been!

 

[Cesarcollie]

First began targeting Western Greyhound when they took work in the Helston and Penzance areas as well as the Truro P&R even before their two notable fires. However, once it became clear that they were struggling, First didn't just wait but stabbed them in the front with new registrations .

I'm with you - Go Ahead doesn't seem like expansion is likely given how bad the losses have been!

I'm amazed they don't just quietly close it down.....

 

[overthewater]

I believe we're all 'over thinking' this. The plc's are governed by the shareholders' desire to make a profit in the short-term. It is this rather than any long term strategy which will be dictating what goes on.....

I'm with you - Go Ahead doesn't seem like expansion is likely given how bad the losses have been!

Then we shall be heading for a crunch then unless Arriva or Go Ahead changes its ways. Its looks just like what has happened elsewhere, and that isn't good for anyone. Only two things will happen either someone else cleans up the area or current operator buck up its ideas.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Then we shall be heading for a crunch then unless Arriva or Go Ahead changes its ways. Its looks just like what has happened elsewhere, and that isn't good for anyone. Only two things will happen either someone else cleans up the area or current operator buck up its ideas.

So you say that it's a crunch unless someone changes it ways..... unless they don't. No one knows how Arriva is performing in Colchester, and Hedingham has recorded losses over recent years and neither crunch nor change has happened (except Tollesbury depot closing)

 

[overthewater]

So you say that it's a crunch unless someone changes it ways..... unless they don't. No one knows how Arriva is performing in Colchester, and Hedingham has recorded losses over recent years and neither crunch nor change has happened (except Tollesbury depot closing)

If there dont the crunch will still happen. Arriva cant just hope for the best and just carry along like ivor the engine, I doubt Go ahead will put up with more recorded losses at Hedingham, so again we dont know whats going to happen but the status quo isn't likley.

 

[overthewater]

This is all long term stuff and we should get back to current stuff.

 

[Lezlee]

2 of the ex 2011 plated Greenline buses have arrived in Chelmsford over the last week to work the X30 route, but won't be put into service until the branding is changed. I expect the other bus will arrive soon.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Well it seems there may just be an inkling of common sense in Essex after all then!

However it perplexes me why only three of them from 2011 are coming when there is another three 2013 vehicles that are doing nothing but the occasional rail replacement work remain in the same place they have been from December. Surely far better to replace the whole X30 fleet and give a dedicated experience?

The first vehicle by the way is 37986, it is in Greenline livery but fully debranded.

 

[Robertj21a]

Well it seems there may just be an inkling of common sense in Essex after all then!

However it perplexes me why only three of them from 2011 are coming when there is another three 2013 vehicles that are doing nothing but the occasional rail replacement work remain in the same place they have been from December. Surely far better to replace the whole X30 fleet and give a dedicated experience?

The first vehicle by the way is 37986, it is in Greenline livery but fully debranded.

Presumably, they have plans for those other 3, elsewhere.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Well it seems there may just be an inkling of common sense in Essex after all then!

However it perplexes me why only three of them from 2011 are coming when there is another three 2013 vehicles that are doing nothing but the occasional rail replacement work remain in the same place they have been from December. Surely far better to replace the whole X30 fleet and give a dedicated experience?

The first vehicle by the way is 37986, it is in Greenline livery but fully debranded.

Perhaps the others are destined (rather than heading to Cymru as was rumoured)? One to watch!