Robertj21a
On Moderation
- Joined
- 22 Sep 2013
- Messages
- 7,520
I think you do an injustice to James Freeman - this is a man who took Provincial from a small, vulnerable isolated operator and competed very effectively with Stagecoach/Transit Holdings and Southampton Citybus/SBL and did so whilst amassing various Mk1 Nationals, new minibuses and latterly Darts. He is a very able busman (and no, he isn't a friend or relative ) I would say the same of many of the people that are in senior positions.
We are seeing all of the big groups drawing their horns in, whether that's Stagecoach in Fife/Somerset/Wales or Arriva in the Midlands. There are inescapable facts - note how Stagecoach (who I admire greatly) recorded a 0.8% decrease in passengers. Reduced local authority expenditure on supported services is one issue. Then you have the reduction in ENCTS remuneration - Somerset is one place where it is 40% of the single fare hence why Stagecoach have eventually vacated. Arriva recorded a drop of 1.7%. It isn't easy out there. Then you have traffic congestion which is really affecting bus operations across the country whether that be Arriva on Merseyside or First in Bristol - do you add more vehicles into your fleet for no more revenue just to maintain headways or do you maintain the fleet and widen the headways?
I do recognise some of the underlying issues that still persist from the bad old days. The average age of the First fleet and its general condition compares poorly with other groups. In Bristol, some of the 1999 B7TLs are being upgraded to meet PSVAR when ordinarily they'd be on their way. That is a cause for concern. Yes, Stagecoach are innovative with things like the SW Falcon. You look at that, or the X5, and then compare it to the Swansea Shuttle - yes, agree the gap is huge in that respect.
Likewise, there should be a number of upsides; FSW should be better given that Plymouth has gone, a full year of no WGL plus the future prospect of a stronger Somerset business. Bristol should be benefitting from more passengers. They've pulled out of Hereford (very marginal) and Bracknell (competition) and managed to release themselves from the straitjacket in Scotland, plus the benefits from the South Yorkshire partnership. Therefore, why this is not reflected more is a concern, I grant you. Are the plusses there being counteracted by the general depression in the North especially in retail footfall and overall economic activity? Is a depressed Aberdeen outweighing a more buoyant Portsmouth? Don't know.
The need to be tougher on costs (and that is an area where Stagecoach lead the way) is clear and that means more depot closures (a couple do spring to mind), centralisation and service rationalisation whilst still trying to encourage patronage. The debt pile is coming down (over 6%) and note that their Fitch ratings (BBB) are the same as Stagecoach.
For those reasons, that's why I don't think you see the clamour on this thread reflected in the markets. The institutional investors are sitting this out for a while, probably because they think they're in deep enough to have to do so. However, have this conversation in a years' time and you might see that change.
One business that I know well had a similar experience and suspended the dividend for 5 years. The Chief Exec got the push and a plan was enacted whereby there was an exiting of various non-core and loss making operations, some walked away from and others sold. The dividend has now been reinstated. It does take time but you're right in that patience will run thin. However, not seen anything from the investors to show that is the case at the moment (excluding that carpet bagger from a few years back)
A fair, and balanced, summary. The millstone around the neck of First Group is that massive debt - does any other public transport operator come anywhere near such an enormous figure ?