First Group: General Discussion

[richw]

There’s no reason to discuss “if”. It’s not even a close possibility at the current time.

 

[Robertj21a]

This is why I don't read the Guardian or the Daily Mail as there is too much fake news that is written in a way that is beliveable. I try and cross source (provided that one of the sources isn't taken down and or removed) if I can so that if one rag says one thing it can cross checked with another so see what they say before forming an opinion.

If FirstGroup were to go into administration, only Bristol (& the West of England) and Leeds (York & West Yorkshire) would suvive what with them being money spinners, the rest would be hived off to other operators.

Sorry, that's totally inaccurate. You seem to assume that First Group is the same as First Bus (UK) and that only 2 areas make any money.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

This is why I don't read the Guardian or the Daily Mail as there is too much fake news that is written in a way that is beliveable. I try and cross source (provided that one of the sources isn't taken down and or removed) if I can so that if one rag says one thing it can cross checked with another so see what they say before forming an opinion.

If FirstGroup were to go into administration, only Bristol (& the West of England) and Leeds (York & West Yorkshire) would suvive what with them being money spinners, the rest would be hived off to other operators.

Sorry to join the pile in but you're quite wrong.

As @winston270twm rightly says, if a firm enters administration, they have no call on what bits are kept or not. Administrators have a legal responsibility to obtain the deal that best suits the owners/creditors.

Similarly, as @Robertj21a and @richw point out, it's not just FWoE and FWY recording profits. The Glasgow operations and those in Hants & Dorset are very profitable, and after a lot of hard work, the turnaround of First South West means it too is profitable, buoyed by dividends from Somerset Passenger Solutions. Cymru and Eastern Counties are both decent, the latter having recovered a bit from the Moir years. Midlands is a mixed bag with a strong Leicester, Worcester struggling a bit, and Potteries much reduced but now in profit. IIRC, the only major concerns were a flat lining Essex, and a loss making South Yorkshire, having disposed of most of Manchester.

If you want to know the facts, rather than the fake noooos, lamestream media, look at the actual financial reports on each firm, published online by Companies House. Read them fully; understand what's changed, and why? If there's an operating loss, understand why.... are the one off costs being incurred? Or conversely, is there a one off profit from a property disposal or something?

The information is there and it isn't an onerous task to find it.

 

[richw]

Sorry to join the pile in but you're quite wrong.

As @winston270twm rightly says, if a firm enters administration, they have no call on what bits are kept or not. Administrators have a legal responsibility to obtain the deal that best suits the owners/creditors.

Similarly, as @Robertj21a and @richw point out, it's not just FWoE and FWY recording profits. The Glasgow operations and those in Hants & Dorset are very profitable, and after a lot of hard work, the turnaround of First South West means it too is profitable, buoyed by dividends from Somerset Passenger Solutions. Cymru and Eastern Counties are both decent, the latter having recovered a bit from the Moir years. Midlands is a mixed bag with a strong Leicester, Worcester struggling a bit, and Potteries much reduced but now in profit. IIRC, the only major concerns were a flat lining Essex, and a loss making South Yorkshire, having disposed of most of Manchester.

If you want to know the facts, rather than the fake noooos, lamestream media, look at the actual financial reports on each firm, published online by Companies House. Read them fully; understand what's changed, and why? If there's an operating loss, understand why.... are the one off costs being incurred? Or conversely, is there a one off profit from a property disposal or something?

The information is there and it isn't an onerous task to find it.

Also to point out Bus as a whole made a £46m profit.

The group losses were one off expenses related to selling off America

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Also to point out Bus as a whole made a £46m profit.

The group losses were one off expenses related to selling off America

Yes and even then, they were non cash transactions . A writing down of assets in many instances. Again, all there to be looked at.

I did think that UK Bus had really turned a corner; fewer basket cases and it looked like the structural issues like the age profile was finally beginning to look better. Even the pensions deficit was better but with CV19, who knows what will happen.

 

[richw]

Yes and even then, they were non cash transactions . A writing down of assets in many instances. Again, all there to be looked at.

I did think that UK Bus had really turned a corner; fewer basket cases and it looked like the structural issues like the age profile was finally beginning to look better. Even the pensions deficit was better but with CV19, who knows what will happen.

In theory CV19 shouldn’t cause losses as such, the gov guaranteed all commercial routes, and as such commercial routes will break even. Tendered routes came down to the local authorities to adjust funding so that could be a different kettle of fish. Concession pass payments should be made based on the same week 2019 so again shouldn’t see a loss against 2019 for them.
certainly feels like it’s picking up this week especially, but it’s nearly all leisure travellers. I did what should be a busy commuter run and I was empty, I’ve done coast runs and I’ve taken good numbers

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

In theory CV19 shouldn’t cause losses as such, the gov guaranteed all commercial routes, and as such commercial routes will break even. Tendered routes came down to the local authorities to adjust funding so that could be a different kettle of fish. Concession pass payments should be made based on the same week 2019 so again shouldn’t see a loss against 2019 for them.
certainly feels like it’s picking up this week especially, but it’s nearly all leisure travellers. I did what should be a busy commuter run and I was empty, I’ve done coast runs and I’ve taken good numbers

It's not what the issue is now that's the issue. It's the longer term when the government turns off the cash (as they may well do) and then you're left with a damaged customer base as people work or shop at home more or have already invested. That's the concern or that people will have fundamentally changed the way in which they travel whether its cycling or driving.

 

[Volvodart]

There’s no reason to discuss “if”. It’s not even a close possibility at the current time.

All the bus companies (and all other companies of any size not covered by exemptions) will have to report similar scenarios when their next accounts come out (Stagecoach next week), as they are required to do so in their accounts. It just so happens that Firstgroup were the first to report accounts with the relevant period included.

 

[freetoview33]

Long term it won't be easy, but it's not quite as bleak as it might have been. AS TGW said it's what happens after and if demand ever picks back up to last years levels, some areas I would imagine might do better than others.

 

[winston270twm]

Also to point out Bus as a whole made a £46m profit.

The group losses were one off expenses related to selling off America

The profit at UK bus still isn't that great though, turnover only dropped by £40.2 million from the same period the year before (£835.9 million vs £876.1 million), whilst operating profits were down some £19 million (£46.1 million vs £65.1 million)

 

[43096]

Unfortunately, in the latter years Moir was simply far too focused on simply being the biggest & lost his focus & control of the group. 13 years on, the group is still strangled & plagued by his poor decisions.

We're 13 years on, though, so blaming Moir Lockhead looks weaker and flimsier every year.

Every year brings another disastrous set of results. Every year there is a change of strategy. Every year a different set of excuses. It's actually just a rank bad business, run by poor people, making poor decisions.

It shouldn't be taking anything like this long to sort out the ills of Moir's regime - hence my comment about the business being run by poor people. It's been like this for years, as an example they now have a CEO who previously as CFO failed to deliver any improvement (and certainly no dividend for shareholders) - yet somehow he was the right person for the top job.

 

[richw]

The profit at UK bus still isn't that great though, turnover only dropped by £40.2 million from the same period the year before (£835.9 million vs £876.1 million), whilst operating profits were down some £19 million (£46.1 million vs £65.1 million)

as mention above there were one off write downs to cause the drop in profit. Revenue drop due to sale of 2 loss making depots in Manchester

 

[winston270twm]

as mention above there were one off write downs to cause the drop in profit. Revenue drop due to sale of 2 loss making depots in Manchester

You're missing my point, the drop in UK bus turnover was a mere -4.6%, the drop in UK Bus profit was -29.2%. There were no specific UK Bus write-downs that I can see, they were related to US operations, there is only a mention of restructuring & reorganisation costs. I agree the drop in turnover was attributed to the sale of 2 x First Manchester depots, but those were both loss making & therefore should of had a positive affect on UK bus profits for the period they were removed from ownership. Indeed if you look below, First made £1.1 million on the net book value of the depots themselves.

As highlighted in the below extract from the FY report, basically passenger growth didn't cover the higher hedged fuel prices / other inflation (i.e. wage costs), neither did the continued cost efficiencies. First is blaming poorer weather

First Bus reported revenue of £835.9m (2019: £876.1m), in part reflecting the sale of two operating depots during the year. Adjusting for this and other factors, like-for-like passenger revenue increased by +0.7%, with commercial passenger volumes decreasing by(4.3)% including the effects of coronavirus. The role of buses has been increasingly recognised during the year, highlighted in particular by significant and high profile commitments to invest in the industry’s future by the UK Government. First Bus delivered like-for-like passenger revenue growth of 1.8% to the end of February, with the local operations experiencing varying demand patterns due to changing retail footfall, challenging congestion issues and differing local economic conditions. Clearly the imposition of government guidelines to avoid all but essential travel in early March to check the spread of coronavirus meant passenger volumes and revenues were significantly affected from that point, as discussed further below.

Adjusted operating profit was £46.1m (2019: £65.1m) and adjusted operating margin was 5.5% (2019: 7.4%), mainly reflecting the substantial reduction in passenger demand in March which was difficult in the short term to offset through cost reductions. The division also experienced poorer weather in the previous summer which capped like-for-like growth and higher hedged fuel prices and other inflation, which was not fully offset by continued cost efficiencies and the actions we have been taking to improve the passenger experience. The division reported a statutory operating profit of £32.4m (2019: £27.4m) as a result of restructuring and reorganisation costs and trading losses up to the point of disposal of the two depots sold in Manchester.

Restructuring and reorganisation costs:

There was a charge of £58.2m (2019: £24.1m) for restructuring and reorganisation costs of which a large part relates to a Group-wide initiative to achieve systematic and structured cost savings across the businesses with the assistance of a market leading organisation in this field. Although this assistance has now ended, the program has shown some benefits in the year just ended prior to the coronavirus pandemic and is anticipated to have further benefits in future years. Restructuring costs also include legal, professional and other costs associated with the proposed rationalisation of the Group. In addition, trading losses in the two Manchester depots to the date of disposal have been included. The two Manchester depots were disposed of in the financial year for £16.2m. The net book value of the assets sold totalled £15.1m, resulting in a gain on sale of £1.1m which is included in the operating loss.

 

[richw]

You're missing my point, the drop in UK bus turnover was a mere -4.6%, the drop in UK Bus profit was -29.2%. There were no specific UK Bus write-downs that I can see, they were related to US operations, there is only a mention of restructuring & reorganisation costs. I agree the drop in turnover was attributed to the sale of 2 x First Manchester depots, but those were both loss making & therefore should of had a positive affect on UK bus profits for the period they were removed from ownership. Indeed if you look below, First made £1.1 million on the net book value of the depots themselves.

As highlighted in the below extract from the FY report, basically passenger growth didn't cover the higher hedged fuel prices / other inflation (i.e. wage costs), neither did the continued cost efficiencies. First is blaming poorer weather

Corona attributed a £7.6m write down To losses

 

[Swimbar]

More rocky roads ahead. Increase in people working from home = less bus passengers and increased investment required due to LEZ's etc. Local Authorities with no money!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

We're 13 years on, though, so blaming Moir Lockhead looks weaker and flimsier every year.

Every year brings another disastrous set of results. Every year there is a change of strategy. Every year a different set of excuses. It's actually just a rank bad business, run by poor people, making poor decisions.

It shouldn't be taking anything like this long to sort out the ills of Moir's regime - hence my comment about the business being run by poor people. It's been like this for years, as an example they now have a CEO who previously as CFO failed to deliver any improvement (and certainly no dividend for shareholders) - yet somehow he was the right person for the top job.

In truth, we're 8 years down the line. The Laidlaw deal was disastrous and the rights issue came in 2013 after Moir had gone. The full impact of that deal wasn't really evident as dividends were being paid and investment pared back to help pay burgeoning servicing costs on borrowed money. You can only do that for so long, and don't underestimate what a hole First had got themselves in.

Then you have the TOT era. Now some on here were saying at the time that they should have been more decisive and cleared the decks. Obviously, they were reticent in having massive write downs. Of course, they've had to face that eventually so yes, they should have bitten the bullet before then. A poor decision not to act sooner and jettison Greyhound if not other parts of the business. There were also reverses in that they lost ScotRail in that period.

Matthew Gregory only came in to be CFO in Dec 2015, which was about the same time as TPE's franchise was awarded. Priced to win at any cost, it had a major write down along with Greyhound, costing TOT his job. In fairness, he was there for SWR which has had a write down but for other reasons (i.e. an onerous set of govt franchising conditions). Think with David Martin (doing the work of Coast) that the break up will come and the UK/US split has to come sooner rather than later.

 

[BeHereNow]

Matthew Gregory only came in to be CFO in Dec 2015, which was about the same time as TPE's franchise was awarded. Priced to win at any cost, it had a major write down along with Greyhound, costing TOT his job.

Very interesting, showing that the 'bid sensibly' approach had been thrown out of the window.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Very interesting, showing that the 'bid sensibly' approach had been thrown out of the window.

Depends which franchise. Having lost Scotrail where they had bid sensibly, they then bid to retain TPE. Essentially, they assumed too many best case scenarios on things like entry into service of new trains, overall economic activity, etc.

SWR was a slightly different case in that the DfT specify very tightly what the rules of the game are. If you don't play the game, as Stagecoach discovered with MML and EC, you get thrown out. The reality is that the franchise system basically says "we want X, you have to sign up to Y, and your price of Z..... well, how bold do you want to be? Or an if anything we've said is wrong, you carry the can and not the DfT" and it becomes a betting scenario. Hence why we've seen too many franchises handed back!

UK Bus suffered from being a cash cow for too long. There were too many instances of 20+ year old deckers lumbering round, and not merely on schools. Even before Laidlaw, new vehicle investment was cut to fund expansion in the UK, buying up firms like Mainline, GM North, SB Holdings and Cawlett. Steady investment in regional fleets (as was the case in Badgerline and early First Bus days) seemed to became a whack-a-mole strategy with vehicles sent into fleets to deal with problems like O license and maintenance issues, to placate PTEs, or to meet obligations for a particular contract or partnership.

I've mentioned before, to the chagrin of one individual, how one OpCo went from regular investment in 1990-5 to nothing until 2014, save for deliveries in 1998, and a splurge in 2004 that was underpinned by various LA funding, and that is true of many other OpCos. Sadly, after some decent investment in 2012-5 across the fleets, the brakes have now been applied on capital spending and we're now seeing again the targeting of spend on selected fleets to meet local quality requirements though at least in East Anglia, there have been some new vehicles outside of that.

We will never know what 2020/21 may have had planned for investment but it had felt in some ways that a corner had been turned. Whether that would have seen the commencement of new vehicles for standard fleet replacement in provincial fleets is unlikely but it did seem better. Now that has been turned upside down by a pangolin eating a bat/release of bio warfare from Wuhan laboratory - delete whichever conspiracy theory you fancy

 

[DD12]

I am getting the impression from the media, that the pandemic is getting much worse in parts of the USA -- therefore will anyone want to buy the American

parts of FirstBus in the next 12 months ??

How much per month are the american operations currently losing, and will FirstGroup be able to just walk away / let them go for less than they are

worth, say, -- or is FirstGroup "trapped" ( - "stuck with them") due to legal reasons (etc) until they can get a sale ??

 

[DragonEast]

Sticking my neck out again, which is an invitation for the usual suspects to chop it; I feel perhaps that the saviour of British bus (not just for First) will come from Government money (as it is for the time being); seasonal (tourist) traffic, student and contract work in the future. Fortunately as is often pointed out FWE have all three. The mayorality will be a saviour too, probably at the inevitable cost of franchising. Money buys control. If it doesn't what's the point? Compare the First Essex OpCo, which essentially has none of them. Hence their problem. Though coronavirus has sorted it all out for them: the competing traffic has disappeared, as have the passengers, as the Government money has flowed in. Like a sweet dream! How they make the most of it when reality dawns, I don't know, apart from the trimming which they have done, but it is only a hesitant start. I'm not sure how far the Government can do its Canute act and hold back the inevitable tide.

Just maybe on a wider note, Essex is in play: Arriva are recreating their Shires op again so I hear, leaving Colchester and Southend even more isolated under Kent and their southern ops. It might only need one domino to fall?

Perhaps it would be an irony if First Bus end up as a combination of UK Student and UK Transit! Maybe with the combination of commercial cuts and environmental issues (anyone remember them) more employers will have to take the responsibility for transporting their workers, with the big growth in transit work. (NHS Transport, anyone? Perhaps we seem to be becoming very keen on this Back to the Future, our "Great Leap Backwards"?)

Just something I heard locally, that Hertfordshire CC were looking at promised DTp suppport to restore the cut network, but are now saying that the financial support may have to be used to support the present network following coronaviris, instead; which the DTp accept. I suspect that they will not be alone. Suffolk, even more rural, are adding a regular daily rural service, apparently on the back of a school contract, but for how long? Where are the pasengers coming from, and why? (But perhaps it is a pointer towards the future: a shrunken "commercial" network as a loss leader between the profitable contract work. But how shrunken?) That seems to me to so often be the issue with buses throughout the Shires, a triumph of hope over expectation. Shouldn't say that though on an enthusiast forum!!!

 

[richw]

seasonal (tourist) traffic, student and contract work in the future.

Agree with all of these. On the basis I’m seeing very few period tickets At the moment and it’s all singles (walkers going one way) and day returns I strongly suspect were seeing mostly leisure travellers at the moment. At FSW we Also have all of the above.

 

[winston270twm]

Corona attributed a £7.6m write down To losses

But lockdown didn't occur until 23rd March in the UK, these FY accounts only run up to 31st March i.e. they cover very little of the lockdown period. Sounds like the period 1st April onwards are going to be even more dire....

I can see a charge of £7.4 million related to over hedging fuel which will be attributed to Corona service reductions, but that includes both Transit (US) & UK bus.

 

[winston270twm]

I am getting the impression from the media, that the pandemic is getting much worse in parts of the USA -- therefore will anyone want to buy the American

parts of FirstBus in the next 12 months ??

How much per month are the american operations currently losing, and will FirstGroup be able to just walk away / let them go for less than they are

worth, say, -- or is FirstGroup "trapped" ( - "stuck with them") due to legal reasons (etc) until they can get a sale ??

The other issue will be buyers valuations due to the uncertainty of the current outlook. Not a good time to be looking at selling transport ops, it will be a buyers market, if there are any left.

Equally, would be buyers could simply walkway away until things settle down.

 

[baza585]

My sense is that the pressure is off management to do the US/UK split for a while, due to the need to avoid a fire sale at the worst time. I guess even Coast would accept that. That leaves an option of a carve out of the US operation into a separate PLC. Not sure which shares I would ditch first tbh.


My biggest fear as a shareholder was that a right wing government would refuse to support services through the crisis. Hasn't happened this far on either side of the Atlantic, but never say never.

In the longer term, I don't see a good future for bus operators. The "don't use buses" message is now ingrained with many of my friends, even the ones with ENCTS cards.

 

[richw]

But lockdown didn't occur until 23rd March in the UK, these FY accounts only run up to 31st March i.e. they cover very little of the lockdown period. Sounds like the period 1st April onwards are going to be even more dire....

I can see a charge of £7.4 million related to over hedging fuel which will be attributed to Corona service reductions, but that includes both Transit (US) & UK bus.

passenger numbers dropped off several weeks before the actual lockdown. I’m looking at the staff briefing figures and £7.6m Is the adjusted profit/loss in 2019/20 accounts Attributed to corona

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Sticking my neck out again, which is an invitation for the usual suspects to chop it; I feel perhaps that the saviour of British bus (not just for First) will come from Government money (as it is for the time being); seasonal (tourist) traffic, student and contract work in the future. Fortunately as is often pointed out FWE have all three. The mayorality will be a saviour too, probably at the inevitable cost of franchising. Money buys control. If it doesn't what's the point? Compare the First Essex OpCo, which essentially has none of them. Hence their problem. Though coronavirus has sorted it all out for them: the competing traffic has disappeared, as have the passengers, as the Government money has flowed in. Like a sweet dream! How they make the most of it when reality dawns, I don't know, apart from the trimming which they have done, but it is only a hesitant start. I'm not sure how far the Government can do it's Canute act and hold back the inevitable tide.

Perhaps it would be an irony if First Bus end up as a combination of UK Student and UK Transit! Maybe with the combination of commercial cut and environmental issues (anyone remember them) more employers will have to take the responsibility for transporting their workers, with the big growth in transit work.

Just something I heard locally, that Hertfordshire CC were looking at promised DTp suppport to restore the cut network, but are now saying that the financial support may have to be used to support the present network following coronaviris, instead; which the DTp accept. I suspect that they will not be alone. Suffolk, even more rural, are adding a regular daily rural service, apparently on the back of a school contract, but for how long? Where are the pasengers coming from, and why? (But perhaps it is a pointer towards the future: a shrunken "commercial" network as a loss leader between the profitable contract work. But how shrunken?) That seems to me to so often be the issue with buses throughout the Shires, a triumph of hope over expectation. Shouldn't say that though on an enthusiast forum!!!

I'm not coming on here with a verbal decapitation. The UK bus industry will have a real existential crisis (if it wasn't having one before) as the way in which we live may have changed forever. It's one thing in Bristol or the met areas to survive on perhaps a 10 or 20% drop but not elsewhere. I'm not holding out much hope for Suffolk PTE being created and think your view on the shire counties is pretty fair. The funds that were promised by Boris to reverse the bus cuts of austerity could easily be swallowed up, and we just don't know what will happen once the giving slows or ceases.

The fact that "the money has flowed in" is perhaps not so much a sweet dream. You may be dreaming in a hospital bed on life support rather than enjoying a four poster at a country hotel The industry knows this which is why they're now wanting to get away from the government message of potential death lurking on every bus.

First Essex is not an OpCo I know. However, it should be an area that First should be exploiting. The outward demographics (pre Covid) suggest that. Aside from Clacton which they've now abandoned, it's an area of decent economic activity and wealth, not like some rust belt decaying northern town. That they have been unable to capitalise is bizarre especially given that they did a reasonable job on Go East (Hedingham) aside from letting them have the Clacton crumbs, but otherwise, it seems an operation beset with poor marketing, a route network that is overly complex, and no clear idea of what it wants to achieve. I was going to have an explore this summer and see if these perceptions were borne out but hey, plans change!

The other issue will be buyers valuations due to the uncertainty of the current outlook. Not a good time to be looking at selling transport ops, it will be a buyers market, if there are any left.

Equally, would be buyers could simply walkway away until things settle down.

My sense is that the pressure is off management to do the US/UK split for a while, due to the need to avoid a fire sale at the worst time. I guess even Coast would accept that. That leaves an option of a carve out of the US operation into a separate PLC. Not sure which shares I would ditch first tbh.


My biggest fear as a shareholder was that a right wing government would refuse to support services through the crisis. Hasn't happened this far on either side of the Atlantic, but never say never.

In the longer term, I don't see a good future for bus operators. The "don't use buses" message is now ingrained with many of my friends, even the ones with ENCTS cards.

Think both these statements hold true. The passenger transport sector is in a bad way and a fire sale now could be catastrophic, selling at the bottom of the market. Best hang on and wait for the US schools to go back.

The "don't use buses" isn't the only issue. We may well be heading for a period of increased unemployment and lower bus usage anyway. Recessions are never good for bus companies.

 

[Volvodart]

I think they are hoping to pick up business in the US if school bus operators fail or give up.

 

[DragonEast]

I
First Essex is not an OpCo I know. However, it should be an area that First should be exploiting. The outward demographics (pre Covid) suggest that. Aside from Clacton which they've now abandoned, it's an area of decent economic activity and wealth, not like some rust belt decaying northern town. That they have been unable to capitalise is bizarre especially given that they did a reasonable job on Go East (Hedingham) aside from letting them have the Clacton crumbs, but otherwise, it seems an operation beset with poor marketing, a route network that is overly complex, and no clear idea of what it wants to achieve. I was going to have an explore this summer and see if these perceptions were borne out but hey, plans change!

I think we can see it from afar. If you look across much of the Northern Home Counties covered by Arriva the Shires and Stagecoach East (beyond the Little London of central Cambridge) you see much the same thing as with First Essex. The difference is that Stagecoach (and to a lesser extent Arriva) coped with it by a much harder local commercial approach. I suspect that First Essex "suffered" from their time under the ex-London management who may be took a poor situation (that of First Bus generally) and made it worse. But in fairness the outer London ring, has had a succession of small operators that thought too you couldn't lose in outer London, and have been proved wrong. Even Arriva withdrew, but are now going back picking up the pieces.

It's hard to withdraw gracefully. Much easier to tread gently in the first place.

I agree with your judgement. Let me just ask one question, as an example: what do we think the First Essex core network actually is?

PS Neither should we forget the other factor: Essex Highways service have always been a complete disaster. The Bedford Highways Agency haven't covered themselves in glory, either; more the other stuff. Maybe that accounts for why everyone else stays out of Essex, for the most part. I, for one, wouldn't blame them!

 

[Volvodart]

passenger numbers dropped off several weeks before the actual lockdown. I’m looking at the staff briefing figures and £7.6m Is the adjusted profit/loss in 2019/20 accounts Attributed to corona

We will be able to compare it next week when Stagecoach report results.

 

[buslad1988]

I think we can see it from afar. If you look across much of the Northern Home Counties covered by Arriva the Shires and Stagecoach East (beyond the Little London of central Cambridge) you see much the same thing as with First Essex. The difference is that Stagecoach (and to a lesser extent Arriva) coped with it by a much harder local commercial approach. I suspect that First Essex "suffered" from their time under the ex-London management who may be took a poor situation (that of First Bus generally) and made it worse. But in fairness the outer London ring, has had a succession of small operators that thought too you couldn't lose in outer London, and have been proved wrong. Even Arriva withdrew, but are now going back picking up the pieces.

It's hard to withdraw gracefully. Much easier to tread gently in the first place.

I agree with your judgement. Let me just ask one question, as an example: what do we think the First Essex core network actually is?

PS Neither should we forget the other factor: Essex Highways service have always been a complete disaster. The Bedford Highways Agency haven't covered themselves in glory, either; more the other stuff. Maybe that accounts for why everyone else stays out of Essex, for the most part. I, for one, wouldn't blame them!

Maybe slightly off topic. I’m not 100% clued up on First’s Essex operations myself but how did the management structure work when it was split Eastern National/Thamesway?

Looking at Essex as two separate operations in my mind makes far more logical sense.

Thamesway - Outer London (Basildon, Southend)

Eastern National - Rural Essex (Chelmsford, Colchester)

Would taking a different approach to the separate kinds of operation be beneficial? Or if they wanted to sell breaking the business up? (Ensign or Stephensons for example would probably both be interested in acquiring just the traditional Thamesway territory)

Could argue that rural Essex (including Colchester/Chelmsford) may be managed better as part of Eastern Counties... with priority being to simplify the networks! So many of Essex’s routes have A/B/C/X variations and look so complicated.