Oi - Mods - someone's posted something
sensible in this thread - this needs moderating urgently
There's so many flawed ideas on this thread that I don't know where to start - e.g. three trains per hour from Okehampton to Exeter - but Bishop Auckland - Spennymoor - Durham gets seven commercial buses per hour, two of which continue to Newcastle - which is a
little bit more than you can say for routes like Tavistock - Okehampton - I'm not saying that a line through County Durham would be a
top priority but it's a corridor that clearly has a reasonable level of demand on it - you can chuck in some of that "regeneration" stuff about reconnecting Bish/Spennymoor to the relative prosperity of Durham/ Newcastle.
Whilst there's already a station at Bishop Auckland, the attractions of Darlington / Middlesbrough aren't anything like as significant as Durham (booming place where people are being priced out of living in the city itself as Students take over) and Newcastle.
Anyhow, back to suggesting rambling lines through empty countryside to reconnect some obscure villages...
I would suggest that some ideas which are currently flawed may not be so in 20, 40 or 60 years time.
Especially when you beat in mind that the UK would like to be net carbon neutral by 2050, so chances are that'll mean a LOT more people using public transport, including rail (which is already produces 5 times less CO2 emissions than cars and decreasing all the time).
Since plastics in the oceans was highlight to the majority of people there's been a significant cultural shift towards being much more aware of our impact on the world. Even before that rail growth has been high and use of cars had been falling.
Where the existing network has limited additional capacity you could consider new routes, however these would need to go somewhere useful. This often means that they need to link to services to/from London, if there's very limited capacity on such services then these new lines won't be built (likewise nor will reopenings happen).
As such any extra capacity (regardless of if you like it or not) would likely need to route into future rail schemes. As an example a reopening which tried into capacity improvements created by HS2 could well happen, one that allows some express trains to miss some villages but not actually allow the runnning of more services into major cities (like London or Birmingham) probably won't.
The other thing to bear in mind is what are the services doing. For instance extending an existing service so that it runs through somewhere which could otherwise cause a bottleneck by terminating a service there could be more cost effective than upgrading stations and/or junctions to facilitate additional services.
Then there's the point that the rail network is very busy and so doing something which diverts passengers from an over used line to a line where there's the potential for extra capacity at a relatively small cost is likely to be seen as a good idea.
However you then have to consider what happens when that line then goes to 2tph rather than 1tph. Those who use it as a local line are likely to increase, add in a few longer distance passengers (who no longer need to go the longer way as it's quicker) and it's for the potential to double passenger numbers in a fairly short timespan.
There's often a view that X can't happen as there's not the demand now. As an example in 2009 there were many doubts that the predictions for HS2 would be met. However 9 years in and the growth rate has exceeded that expected for the opening of Phase 1 (8 years early), whilst the growth rate to slightly exceed the predictions for phase 2 (Western Arm) we'd only need to see <1% per year (which to date has been a very rare occurrence).
Let's take Plymouth Exeter, there's currently a lot of 80x' running as 9/10 coach trains with fairly good passenger loading figures. This December will see a near universal 2tph express/semi fast service being provided (either by GWR or XC). If we see a doubling of passenger numbers in the next 20 to 30 years then we'd need to have at least a 3tph service between the two (assuming that 1tph is a half length train from next month).
However it's likely that a fourth service could well be useful/needed soon after. There's little scope for extra service from London or Birmingham heading to the South West using GWR track currently and any such spare capacity would likely be attractive for other GWR routes as well. However there could well be (with Crossrail 2 and some upgrades to the WofE line) scope for services from Waterloo.
Although there's not likely to be many who would head from Waterloo to Exeter or Plymouth there's likely to be several who already use the GWR services who would switch to a SWR service of it could miss our a of the more minor stations West of Salisbury, especially if it continued to Plymouth. That would then free up capacity on the GWR services for more passengers.
If there's a line through Okehampton, justified by serving longer distance passengers (which is something which is unlikely to have been considered as it's 20-30 years away whist the current assessments have been done with current passenger flows and mostly assuming it's just a local, almost branch, line) then it's entirely feasible that it could have other services. Especially given that once the line exists there's likely to be more development at places along the line where there's a train station, or even the potential for a train station (see Newcourt as an example of what could happen, and who would have predicted that 30 years ago?).
The future of travel is much more likely to be people walking, cycling, using buses and trains than it is Hyperloop and driverless cars (although the latter will exist, it's unlikely that in the next 30 years that they'll be a significant modal share, if at all very noticeable in the greater scheme of things). Why? Due to Hyperloop needing a long time to actually build a useful network and the difficulty of that network being anything other than point to point routes. Likewise driverless cars need their routes to be well mapped, meaning that they'll be limited in where they can go for a long time. Both of these will limit their usefulness.
For example if you think that it'll take a bit of time to get driverless cars to be able to do the whole of the area within the North/South Circular of London. However then scale that up to every city and large town (those urban areas of over 75,000) as well as the whole trunk road network. That's not going to be an easy task and even then there's a lot of places which would be off limits. However there's going to be a lot of people who make those sorts of journeys enough to be able to rely on a self driving car. Yet many of those places wouldn't generate enough traffic to justify companies mapping the routes.
That's going to leed to potentially fairly reasonable sized towns where a self drive car may only get you to key points. However with range limits (assuming an electric vehicle) you may find that going by train is much faster.
Maybe in 50 to 100 years they'll be wide spread enough (consider how bad mobile phone signal is in some areas and that's been mainstream for over 20 years) however, by then rail will have had it a lot it's own way and so people are likely to be more used to switching between modes of travel than perhaps people are now.
However with a likely growing population and a limit on road space is likely that rail could well continue to grow. Especially if you can remove a significant amount of long distance travel to the railways, freeing up more roadspace for local travel. As a significant percentage of places which are congested are like that because of people passing through that area rather than those traveling to/from that area.