Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

[6Gman]

There is a story here about Metropolitan railway plan to take tube route 'nearly as far as Milton Keynes'. Perhaps some augmented development along these lines might be considerably cheaper than HS2 since all we are worried about is capacity at the southern end of WCML. This would provide a commuter route into London which is the prime purpose of HS2 regardless of what the publicity says.

https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/story-behind-long-forgotten-london-3235498

A very odd article!

And, given how MK commuters prefer 30" on Virgin to 40" on a Desiro, I wonder how many would be content to use an extended Metropolitan Line ?

 

[Robertj21a]

And the case for the north is made stronger still (indeed, made credible) by building the south bit too.

To those in the north, it would be far more credible to start building in the north and work down to London - or else they just perceive southern favouritism (and know that it will probably never reach the north).

 

[nick.c]

HS2 not worth the £100 + billion it will cost. "

But since the first 44 miles of High Speed One was delivered for a relatively modest £1.9 billion, how is the 350 mile High Speed Two network going to get anywhere near £100 billion?

 

[Neen Sollars]

But since the first 44 miles of High Speed One was delivered for a relatively modest £1.9 billion, how is the 350 mile High Speed Two network going to get anywhere near £100 billion?

If 350 miles of High Speed railway could be constructed for £100 billion I would support it. But if you read the newspaper article I linked above you will see official current estimate is around £85 billion for Brum to London, that figure is likely to be revised upwards to over £100 billion when the HS2 review is published at the end of this year. Over £7 billion has been spent so far, and after the SFO have investigated and and all the hundreds of legal cases that will follow are paid off the cost to the taxpayer will be in excess of £12 billion in my opinion. £12 billion spent for absolutely no return to the taxpayer. This is going to be a mega scandal.

 

[class26]

Well, all I know is that if HS2 is honestly intended to help the north then someone is doing a very poor job of selling it as such. All I hear is that '......the WCML is 'full', particularly south of MK'.

I'm sure most people in the north know only too well that it will probably never improve their lives, in any realistic timescale. It's not surprising that most of them are far more likely to want improvements across the area, from Liverpool to Hull, and all between.

So trains from manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow etc don`t use the WCML south of MK ?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A very odd article!
And, given how MK commuters prefer 30" on Virgin to 40" on a Desiro, I wonder how many would be content to use an extended Metropolitan Line ?

It manages not to mention the Great Central at all (the main line successor to the Met), and asserts that Paddington was "the only starting point for the north"!
It's also in the Stoke Sentinel which is hardly a local paper in the London commuter area.
Stoke, of course, is still miffed that it is not directly on HS2 and will have to put up with branch-line status (although it will get through trains).
The Metropolitan must be one of the most congested commuter lines around London, with zero capacity for extra trains from outside the area.

 

[underbank]

So trains from manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow etc don`t use the WCML south of MK ?

They do, but far more use the Liverpool<>Manchester<>Leeds<>Hull/York areas. Relatively few "northerners" regularly use trains down as far as the lower reaches of the WCML. Improvements are needed for the many, not the few.

 

[nick.c]

If 350 miles of High Speed railway could be constructed for £100 billion I would support it.

Worst case estimates of £85 billion refer to the whole project (not just London to Brum) - though the current budget is actually £56 billion. I think the original estimate for Phase 1 for just the infrastructure was around £17 billion.

The point is, its not as if the UK has had no experience of building high speed rail lines. The whole 70 miles of HS1 cost under £6 billion, and that included rebuilding St Pancras, loads of tunnelling and getting the line through the "Garden of England". HS2, involving the construction of 350 miles of new line, is around 5 times as large a project, and therefore without adjusting for inflation, should come out at around £30 billion.

 

[6Gman]

HS2 not worth the £100 + billion it will cost. Serious Fraud Office moving in on HS2 Ltd. See new article below from MOS.

"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ontracts-Troubled-rail-scheme-new-crisis.html"

Another odd article. I'm sure I've seen this elsewhere some time ago.

 

[6Gman]

They do, but far more use the Liverpool<>Manchester<>Leeds<>Hull/York areas. Relatively few "northerners" regularly use trains down as far as the lower reaches of the WCML. Improvements are needed for the many, not the few.

Do more people really travel long-distance on TPE than on the WCML?

 

[6Gman]

If 350 miles of High Speed railway could be constructed for £100 billion I would support it. But if you read the newspaper article I linked above you will see official current estimate is around £85 billion for Brum to London, that figure is likely to be revised upwards to over £100 billion when the HS2 review is published at the end of this year. Over £7 billion has been spent so far, and after the SFO have investigated and and all the hundreds of legal cases that will follow are paid off the cost to the taxpayer will be in excess of £12 billion in my opinion. £12 billion spent for absolutely no return to the taxpayer. This is going to be a mega scandal.

1. The official current estimate is not £85bn for London to Birmingham.
2. The £100bn is plucked from the air.
3. The SFO is investigating allegations which may be baseless.
4. So there may not be any legal cases, never mind "hundreds".

Other than that, a well-made argument.

 

[matacaster]

A very odd article!

And, given how MK commuters prefer 30" on Virgin to 40" on a Desiro, I wonder how many would be content to use an extended Metropolitan Line ?

I am afraid that the opinions of the ultra-cossetted commuters in Milton Keynes should not outweigh others needs. MK is quite within tube travel distance and is hardly long distance at all.

Perhaps the powers that be should consider stopping the breath-taking growth of Milton Keynes as a suburb of London and offer grants / move Government jobs to the north! Main lines should NOT be for commuting.

 

[class26]

There is so much ill informed debate going on at the moment, figures plucked out of the air etc. Alistair Darling, (who ought to know better) was on the TV a couple of days ago and his argument was that whilst we had Pacer trains running about the money ought to be spent getting rid of those. He didn`t of course say they were all going with 5 / 6 months anway and that their replacements were all financed but why let facts get in the way of a good rant?

 

[Ianno87]

Do more people really travel long-distance on TPE than on the WCML?

6 x 3-car trains per hour (TPE) vs 9 x 9/11 car trains per hour (WCML - before even considering LNWR services) suggests which has more demand....

 

[The Planner]

I am afraid that the opinions of the ultra-cossetted commuters in Milton Keynes should not outweigh others needs. MK is quite within tube travel distance and is hardly long distance at all.

45 odd miles is tube travel distance?!

 

[matacaster]

There is so much ill informed debate going on at the moment, figures plucked out of the air etc. Alistair Darling, (who ought to know better) was on the TV a couple of days ago and his argument was that whilst we had Pacer trains running about the money ought to be spent getting rid of those. He didn`t of course say they were all going with 5 / 6 months anway and that their replacements were all financed but why let facts get in the way of a good rant?

Yes, but there is very little extra capacity being introduced with th epacer replacements which is the biggest niggle. These pacers have been running around for a long time now and there has been no increase in capacity to meet demand, we just get crush loading. I wonder what the people of Milton Keynes would say to pacers on their route.

 

[Ianno87]

Yes, but there is very little extra capacity being introduced with th epacer replacements which is the biggest niggle. These pacers have been running around for a long time now and there has been no increase in capacity to meet demand, we just get crush loading. I wonder what the people of Milton Keynes would say to pacers on their route.

No increase in capacity in the north?! In Greater Manchester, 4 car formations (rather than 2 car) are now the norm, not the exception, with electrification and DNU cascades.

 

[matacaster]

45 odd miles is tube travel distance?!

It doesn't all have to be underground though does it? nor does it need to be over 100mph if its just doing the 45 miles or so from MK to London, so the line doesn't have to be so straight.

Is it not possible to have modern tube stock with nicer interiors and aircon?

MK and places further south are basically commuter enclaves which tie up paths on the current WCML and the stock should reflect that. It is highly irritating that it takes around 50 mins? to travel between Leeds and Manchester, yet people in Milton Keynes couldn't possibly suffer a reduction in the speed of their commute and take a tube - its the unfairness of most money being invested in London and its environs which because the transport system is so good attracts yet more people to commute. Anywhere where commuting to London takes place on a big scale counts towards being London centric in my book. On the Transpennine Express Leeds to Manchester route, there has LONG been insufficient capacity which the new loco stock will improve, but that will soon be used up and HS3 will be well the wrong side of 2030 even if it sees the light of day which I doubt. Near London, HS2 is in tunnel for a considerable stretch because they won't pull houses down or spoil the countryside, once beyond Birmingham, only an expensive area to the West of Manchester is considered worth doing anything with, everything else they just bulldoze through (such as a new cheap housing estate not too far from Rotherham).

 

[matacaster]

No increase in capacity in the north?! In Greater Manchester, 4 car formations (rather than 2 car) are now the norm, not the exception, with electrification and DNU cascades.

Try Leeds!

The cascades have only just happened after many years of stagnation with crush loading. Also note that the cascades to Manchester are of well-used EMU's which have done a goodly part of their life down south. How often has redundant stock from up north been used in London? They can have our pacers (when we have finally got rid of them) and see what we've had to put up with in the rest of the country.

 

[matacaster]

6 x 3-car trains per hour (TPE) vs 9 x 9/11 car trains per hour (WCML - before even considering LNWR services) suggests which has more demand....

I would concur that far more people travel on WCML than Transpennine. The travelling public, PTE's and rail enthusiasts in the north however didn't ask for 6 x 3-car per hour on TPE, what was required was 4 or 5 sets an hour but each with at least 6 carriages.

 

[mmh]

How often has redundant stock from up north been used in London?

I'll preempt one of the probable apologist replies to that - the Scotrail 170s which moved to Southern.

They weren't just refurbished, the entire interior was replaced to be identical to Southern's 171s. Even as an enthusiast the way to spot them is a different headlamp cluster.

No "stick a different livery on them and that's enough" like Northern's hand-me-downs!

Plus why did Southern need them? To run 10car trains on their unelectrified route. Just imagine that, northerners!

 

[Ianno87]

I'll preempt one of the probable apologist replies to that - the Scotrail 170s which moved to Southern.

They weren't just refurbished, the entire interior was replaced to be identical to Southern's 171s. Even as an enthusiast the way to spot them is a different headlamp cluster.

No "stick a different livery on them and that's enough" like Northern's hand-me-downs!

Plus why did Southern need them? To run 10car trains on their unelectrified route. Just imagine that, northerners!

No local routes in the north have anything like enough demand for 10 car trains.

Also the TPE 158s that went to SWT in exchange for newer Class 170s.

And the former Virgin West Coast Mk3 sets now plying their trade taking commuters into Liverpool Street, when displaced by Pendolinos.

Meanwhile, the only 'old' fleet that has gone north from London and the South East in the last two decades or so are the 319s... That's it.

 

[mmh]

No local routes in the north have anything like enough demand for 10 car trains

As I said, an apologist would inevitably respond. Anyone who thinks long trains are never needed outside the South East hasn't used many Holyhead boat trains!

Also the TPE 158s that went to SWT in exchange for newer Class 170s.

And the former Virgin West Coast Mk3 sets now plying their trade taking commuters into Liverpool Street, when displaced by Pendolinos.

Meanwhile, the only 'old' fleet that has gone north from London and the South East in the last two decades or so are the 319s... That's it.

That's not entirely true, but why do you think old South East trains don't generally get moved anywhere else?

 

[Mogster]

No local routes in the north have anything like enough demand for 10 car trains.

I regularly see and experience crush loaded 4 car services on my Wigan - Manchester commute so I’m not sure there’s no demand currently for sets of double that length. I’d also be surprised if there wasn’t significant unfulfilled demand.

There are few platforms in Greater Manchester that could take a ten car service though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The plan as I recall was for the first rolling stock order (for phase 1) to be of the classic-compatible variety, with the captive stock ordered later.

With a fair chance there would never actually be any captive stock, as for such a large order you wouldn't save a lot, you'd gain maybe 2" on seat widths if that (most UIC stock is about 2.8something metres wide so not much different from UK stock, it's flat sides and the height you gain in) and you'd lose a load of flexibility.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's not entirely true, but why do you think old South East trains don't generally get moved anywhere else?

Are all those 319s a mirage? How about the 320/321s in Scotland?

The reason, of course, why stock from south of the Thames doesn't make it north is that there's only third rail on Merseyside and it doesn't need any more stock. And because prior to the 1990s it was mostly knackered old Mk1 underframed stock anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

To those in the north, it would be far more credible to start building in the north and work down to London - or else they just perceive southern favouritism (and know that it will probably never reach the north).

Well, they need to change their perception. It is a ridiculous idea to pander to moaners by not building the bit of the line that is most needed first.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I regularly see and experience crush loaded 4 car services on my Wigan - Manchester commute so I’m not sure there’s no demand currently for sets of double that length. I’d also be surprised if there wasn’t significant unfulfilled demand.

There are few platforms in Greater Manchester that could take a ten car service though.

I think 8x20m / 6x23m is a sensible standard platform length for the North West. Maybe some OHLE EMUs could be sent up north to allow lengthening when the likes of GA have finished with them.

 

[Glenn1969]

Merseyrail have a new fleet on order but are in dispute with RMT over DOO on the new trains

I would also say that certainly in peak and shoulder peak 6 x 5 cars at least are needed on the main Transpennine route through Huddersfield to avoid crush loading

 

[Bletchleyite]

Merseyrail have a new fleet on order but are in dispute with RMT over DOO on the new trains

Indeed, but shipping other DOO trains up from the South isn't going to fix that.

Edit: I was surprised to see the 707s not ending up on Merseyrail, but the new stock is clearly superior.

I would also say that certainly in peak and shoulder peak 6 x 5 cars at least are needed on the main Transpennine route through Huddersfield to avoid crush loading

I think all the TPE sets will need extending to 6-7 car in pretty short order. I think the suppressed demand (due to how nasty an experience using TPE is due to the overcrowding) is likely to be substantial.