Grayling Out - Shapps In

[ohgoditsjames]

The section of the Midland Main Line with the highest traffic density is either electrified or very soon will be.
How much traffic actually is there north of Kettering? Especially given that with current practice you would have to electrify four tracks to get it.

And whilst TPE has a lot of trains, they are all rather short and light.

Ridiculous statement. There should be no major cities in the country without wires. The midland mainline has one of the countries largest cities in the country at the end of it (Sheffield).

 

[AM9]

Nothing like the same thing, MEPs do not form part of a government.

However, despite their desperation (and conviction if their words can be believed) to get out of the EU, they still insist in dealing with a government that they claim has no moral juristiction over the UK.

 

[HSTEd]

Ridiculous statement. There should be no major cities in the country without wires.

Why not?
If there is no traffic to justify it, then why should it?

The midland mainline has one of the countries largest cities in the country at the end of it (Sheffield).

And if your objective is merely to get electrification to Sheffield for London trains, you wouldn't electrify the MML, via Retford is already borderline competitive even if you only manage the Pacer timed timetable on the last leg. [Either extend the Newark terminators or split the Lincoln trains at Newark and put five cars to Sheffield - and no I am not actually suggesting this is a good plan before anyone jumps in!]
Given the current cost implications of 25kV as it stands, and given what the Green Book says about capital returns (which are ludicrous btw but there we are) then I'm afraid there is no business case for it.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

Why not?
If there is no traffic to justify it, then why should it?


And if your objective is merely to get electrification to Sheffield for London trains, you wouldn't electrify the MML, via Retford is already borderline competitive even if you only manage the Pacer timed timetable on the last leg. [Either extend the Newark terminators or split the Lincoln trains at Newark and put five cars to Sheffield - and no I am not actually suggesting this is a good plan before anyone jumps in!]
Given the current cost implications of 25kV as it stands, and given what the Green Book says about capital returns (which are ludicrous btw but there we are) then I'm afraid there is no business case for it.

The Retford leg would be a real ball ache because of the tight curve and not to mention the implications the extra traffic would have upon the fast services on the ECML that don’t call at Redford. I’ve often wondered why this was never done as Sheffield used to have a service to KX via Retford but that traffic got diverted years before my time. Besides, I finally believe that Leicester, Nottingham and Derby should also have wires.

Are there not other benefits to electrification? Have you ever stood at Platform 3/4 and inhaled the diesel fumes in?

 

[HSTEd]

The Retford leg would be a real ball ache because of the tight curve and not to mention the implications the extra services would have upon the fast services on the ECML that don’t call at Redford.

Given the insane acceleration of modern EMUs I am not sure it would be a catastrophic problem for Retford trains.
But I wasn't actually suggesting it was necessarily a good plan.

Are there not other benefits to electrification? Have you ever stood at Platform 3/4 and inhaled the diesel fumes in?

Most terminal station pollution can be handled far more cheaply through improved provision of shore power supplies (and maybe they should have made IEPs use HST standard shore supplies rather than an entirely new one!)

I am personally for an all electric railway, but I also don't believe the figures on the Treasury Green book are reasonable - and as people around here know I am not happy with current 25kV installation costs.

 

[Hadders]

Maybe Grant is correct to assess that people will pay a bit more not to have to queue at ticket offices or deal with those shoddy ticket vending machines?

How much is a bit more? Consider Stevenage - London that could well be next in line for Oyster:

Current fares:
SDS £15.10
SDR £22.70
SVR £28.90
CDR £17.90 (no evening restrictions)
PDR £17.40 (Super Off Peak Day Rtn)
CBA £12.00 (W/E Super Off Peak Day Rtn)

You only get Anytime and Off Peak Singles with Oyster so what are the fares likely to be? I'd guess at something like:

Anytime £11.30
Off Peak £8.90

If I'm right then a commuter travelling on a weekday both ways in the peak pays the same as now.
A leisure traveller going to London after 09:30 and returning in the evening peak pays £10.25 compared to £17.90 at present.
A leisure traveller going to London after 09:30 and returning outside the evening peak pays the same as at present
A leisure traveller going to London at Off Peak times returning on a different day at off peak times pay less
A leisure traveller going for a day out in London at the weekend pays £17.80, a whopping £5.80 more than at present.

The real sting in the trail is when it comes to Railcards that can't be loaded onto Oyster (Network, F&F and Two Together):

At present passengers pay as little as £11.50 to fo to London and back on a weekday and £7.90 at weekends. They are staring down the barrel of fares more than doubling to travelling at weekends.

Of course everyone wants Oyster and believes it's cheaper. We're told not to worry as paper tickets will still be available - but for how long? Passengers will be brainwashed by the convenience of flashing their contactless cards to travel thinking it's cheaper and not realising because you don't hand over any physical money. Then a year or two down the line the good value paper tickets get withdrawn because there's no demand for them and 'it's what passengers want...'

I'm not against the convenience of Oyster or contactless but I am against huge fare increases vis the back door. Be very, very careful what you wish for.

 

[edwin_m]

The section of the Midland Main Line with the highest traffic density is either electrified or very soon will be.
How much traffic actually is there north of Kettering? Especially given that with current practice you would have to electrify four tracks to get it.

4 trains per hour, at least two of them full-length all day and all four full length in the peaks. Wigston to Trent and a bit round Chesterfield is (or might become) four tracks but the rest is only double.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ridiculous statement. There should be no major cities in the country without wires. The midland mainline has one of the countries largest cities in the country at the end of it (Sheffield).

London-Sheffield will be wired for HS2.

 

[ashkeba]

I'm not against the convenience of Oyster or contactless but I am against huge fare increases vis the back door. Be very, very careful what you wish for.

I'm not wishing for it, but I suspect Shapps is correct if he thinks his constituents are willing to pay for the convenience, on balance.

 

[ashkeba]

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/rail-industry-welcomes-new-transport-secretary-grant-shapps/

Darren Caplan, chief executive of the RIA said, “On behalf of the Railway Industry Association and its members I would like to congratulate Grant Shapps on his appointment as Secretary of State for Transport.

“The new transport secretary leads the Department for Transport (DfT) at a particularly interesting time for the rail industry. [...]"

Might as well welcome him, I guess. Has an industry association ever announced "oh god, no, not him" to a new minister in charge?

 

[HSTEd]

4 trains per hour, at least two of them full-length all day and all four full length in the peaks. Wigston to Trent and a bit round Chesterfield is (or might become) four tracks but the rest is only double.

The traffic density for IC trains falls once you get above Trent though right because you lose the Nottingham trains?
The passenger traffic density per track isn't actually that high compared to say the GWML.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

London-Sheffield will be wired for HS2.

And yet absolutely no one has announced where the funds for it will come from and HS2 phase 2b is yet to receive any sort of commitment. It’s also ridiculous that we’ll have a 70 mile gap between Claycross and Market Harborough without wires.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Ridiculous statement. There should be no major cities in the country without wires. The midland mainline has one of the countries largest cities in the country at the end of it (Sheffield).

And add in Leicester, Nottingham and Derby and Loughborough and then for good measure throw in climate change and carbon reduction - MML is a no brainer in stages IMHO

 

[WatcherZero]

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/rail-industry-welcomes-new-transport-secretary-grant-shapps/

Might as well welcome him, I guess. Has an industry association ever announced "oh god, no, not him" to a new minister in charge?

Eric Pickles and the Local Government Association?

 

[The Ham]

And add in Leicester, Nottingham and Derby and Loughborough and then for good measure throw in climate change and carbon reduction - MML is a no brainer in stages IMHO

Indeed, if we are going to be carbon neutral by 2050 then there's going to need to be a cost associated with producing carbon. Such a charge could make a difference to the economics of electrification.

The other thing which is likely to make a difference is the potential mindset change to the way people are willing to travel as policy makers driving harder. About 2 years ago it took 6 weeks to clean up after Glastonbury this year (after plastic in the oceans became of concern) it to 6 days.

I know if a business who's staff when they went to internal meetings always used disposal cups, at the start of this year (about 12 months later) no one does as they all have and use reusable insulated mugs.

How would that help rail, given that everyone would be looking to cut the amount of travel they are doing? Well if they no longer own a car, or less cars per household, for day to day travel then whenever they wish to make other journeys they'll be more inclined to use rail.

 

[Mikey C]

I don't take much notice of political commitments when the deadline is 20/30 years away, that's a politician's way of sounding like they are taking something serious, while leaving the dirty work to others! It's hard commitments and cash in the next 5 years which matters

 

[Ianigsy]

The other thing which is likely to make a difference is the potential mindset change to the way people are willing to travel as policy makers driving harder. About 2 years ago it took 6 weeks to clean up after Glastonbury this year (after plastic in the oceans became of concern) it to 6 days.

I know if a business who's staff when they went to internal meetings always used disposal cups, at the start of this year (about 12 months later) no one does as they all have and use reusable insulated mugs.

In my workplace plastic cups were eliminated the best part of ten years ago. A couple of months back we were given branded travel cups and water bottles - everybody wins because the company gets the benefit of increased morale for minimal cost, staff morale improves and the building produces less plastic waste.

The tricky thing is going to be making such policies electable when Joe Public still expects their fortnight in Spain/Greece/Florida etc.

 

[ashkeba]

In my workplace plastic cups were eliminated the best part of ten years ago. A couple of months back we were given branded travel cups and water bottles - everybody wins because the company gets the benefit of increased morale for minimal cost, staff morale improves and the building produces less plastic waste.

The tricky thing is going to be making such policies electable when Joe Public still expects their fortnight in Spain/Greece/Florida etc.

I understand one can travel to Spain and Greece on some sort of low friction shared vehicles that run on special metal roads and produce less carbon than flying machines.

 

[Andyh82]

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/rail-industry-welcomes-new-transport-secretary-grant-shapps/

Might as well welcome him, I guess. Has an industry association ever announced "oh god, no, not him" to a new minister in charge?

I’m guessing the RMT will have a negative opinion

 

[mmh]

Cant see any reason why this government would want to effectively give it over to a Labour mayor.

Indeed. And to prove there's no love lost in that direction, Johnson got a quip in about Sadiq Khan in his first appearance in the Commons as PM. (A question from a Northern Ireland MP about backing for Wright Bus)

 

[HSTEd]

Indeed, if we are going to be carbon neutral by 2050 then there's going to need to be a cost associated with producing carbon. Such a charge could make a difference to the economics of electrification.

The entire railway fuel oil consumption for a year is about half a million tonnes.
This is about 3% of UK aviation consumption.

Getting to carbon neutral is almost independent of what happens to the railway.

 

[Class 170101]

There was an interesting article about the design of the soon to be released electric MINI. The MINI design chief was saying that the sweet spot for electric cars is 150 - 180 miles of battery power. Any less and people won't buy them, any more and the weight and cost makes them inefficient and too costly. Future battery technology may increase that range, but there will always be a trade off between range, weight and cost.

Still need the charging technology to make it viable, unless they there is a quick way to swap a dead battery for a charged one at a battery station (like Petrol station).

 

[1018509]

Grayling greyed out - thank God!

 

[mmh]

I can see Tory/Brexit Party splitting votes in some seats leading to neither winning.

People said similar about UKIP, but what actually happened after UKIP collapsed after the EU referendum was promised and took place was the vote shares returned to pretty much what they had been before in "leave constituencies." It's a complete myth that UKIP, and now the Brexit Party, only take Conservative votes. They took votes from both.

 

[mmh]

People said similar about UKIP, but what actually happened after UKIP collapsed after the EU referendum was promised and took place was the vote shares returned to pretty much what they had been before in "leave constituencies." It's a complete myth that UKIP, and now the Brexit Party, only take Conservative votes. They took votes from both.

(If there was a general election tomorrow I'd bet on the Tories doing better. Disillusioned leaver Tories can go back to support a party giving a forthright leave message. Disillusioned leaver Labour supporters are more likely to vote Brexit Party.

 

[takno]

People said similar about UKIP, but what actually happened after UKIP collapsed after the EU referendum was promised and took place was the vote shares returned to pretty much what they had been before in "leave constituencies." It's a complete myth that UKIP, and now the Brexit Party, only take Conservative votes. They took votes from both.

It's not that the Brexit party don't take votes from Labour. It's just just that they do so at a far smaller rate. 2017 Labour voters have (according to the most recent polls) gone roughly 1/4 to the greens, 1/2 to the lib-dems and 1/4 to Brexit. I don't recall the numbers for conservative defectors but I think they were more like 2/3rds Brexit party and 1/3 LibDems. Obviously a harder line on Brexit may bring some of the BP defectors back, but probably at the cost of more defectors to the LibDems, possibly including some MPs.

In terms of the impact on elections, it's pretty much impossible to predict with much confidence - the vote split four ways could lead to any number of crazy marginals and unexpected results. A key cause for concern for the conservatives would be the number of LibDem-Conservative marginals - virtually all of the top 80 LibDem target seats are currently Conservative. Obviously the rise of the LibDems and Greens could also take votes off labour in Labour-Conservative marginals, but the Brexit party might well cancel that effect out. Add on that voters on the left have a lot more experience of tactical voting, and better access to tools to coordinate it and things could get very nasty indeed for the Tories.

How much of that Tory strategists agree with, and how much it will affect their judgement is open to question, but if I were them and I was already committed to chasing the Brexit vote then I would certainly be looking at doing a deal with farage

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The BBC says Chris Heaton Harris has been appointed a transport minister.
But it doesn't say what part of transport, or whom he replaces of Grayling's team (of the 4 ministers, Andrew Jones is Rail minister).
He's MP for Daventry and was at one time chairman of the ERG Brexit group.

Edit: Harris is to be Minister of State (ie No 2 at the DfT), replacing Michael Ellis.
No specific rail responsibilities, the rail minister remains Andrew Jones.

 

[takno]

The BBC says Chris Heaton Harris has been appointed a transport minister.
But it doesn't say what part of transport, or whom he replaces of Grayling's team (of the 4 ministers, Andrew Jones is Rail minister).
He's MP for Daventry and was at one time chairman of the ERG Brexit group.

He's probably been appointed Minister in Charge of Bricking up that Damn Tunnel. Luckily Grayling got all the bricks out to play with the other day and they went on fire and then fell in the sea, and we can't get any replacements because it turns out they're made abroad.

 

[pt_mad]

If bi-modes can really deliver what is claimed I'm afraid there will be very little additional electrification.

Are they actually claiming that we can reach net zero carbon by 2050 with bi-modes running in diesel? Or were the bi-modes proposed before this committment was announced?

 

[HSTEd]

Are they actually claiming that we can reach net zero carbon by 2050 with bi-modes running in diesel? Or were the bi-modes proposed before this committment was announced?

I don't know.
But the amount of carbon capture that will be required for net zero without completely gutting the aviation industry will make cancelling rail emissions a rounding error.

And I was referring more to operational perfromance of the bi-modes.
If they can do what is promised then the network effect is dead.