Greater Anglia 2019 - What could possibly go wrong?

[anamyd]

If anything moves west this weekend it will need to use a different route due to engineering works between Ely and Peterborough.

ah thanks for that

 

[HH]

The end of 2020 is pretty much the original timeframe as it was. I don't expect them to catch up to schedule by then. I think it'll be touch and go whether every single new unit is in service on every route by the end of 2021, frankly.

When the plan first came out I thought they were about a year too optimistic, but it's gone even worse than I feared, so I'd say it was more touch than go.

I can understand the pressure on bidders to promise the Earth; they will assume every wind is fair and nothing goes wrong. I just hope that they were properly penalised during bid evaluation for such an over-optimistic delivery plan, both in Q and Risk Adjustment, but won despite that.

Knowing DfT, I somehow doubt it (if you only knew just how inexperienced many of those ultimately in control of the Railway really are, you would too).

 

[RailWonderer]

As things stand I'd anticipate the last of the legacy fleet being withdrawn in H1 2022

That would mean extending the 360 lease for 18 months. Will they really do that?

Question is what happens beyond the end of August 2020 when the 360s and 379s go off lease if the Bombardier situation isn't resolved to a large degree

The railway moves so fast, its honestly useless trying to predict anything now. You would think 745s would arrive to displace the 379s just on time but not all have even been delivered and they have their own issues.
As for the Bombardier, we don't even have a 720 delivered to the GE yet for testing & crew training so it's hard to say how behind they even are.

 

[samuelmorris]

That would mean extending the 360 lease for 18 months. Will they really do that?

No they won't, the 360s will probably have been in service with EMR for considerable time by then. All the leases will be extended to some degree, but it'll be the 321 leases that get extended the most, until that time. There may be some 321s that never actually leave due to the aforementioned platform length issues, which may ultimately be replaced with a follow-on order of 4x20m stock, potentially extra 755s.

 

[RailWonderer]

No they won't, the 360s will probably have been in service with EMR for considerable time by then.

In fact the 360 leases might not be extended at all, they might have to go by August 2020 so that the extensive refurbishment can be done in time for December 2020. It will be sad to see them go.

 

[hwl]

That would mean extending the 360 lease for 18 months. Will they really do that?

The railway moves so fast, its honestly useless trying to predict anything now. You would think 745s would arrive to displace the 379s just on time but not all have even been delivered and they have their own issues.
As for the Bombardier, we don't even have a 720 delivered to the GE yet for testing & crew training so it's hard to say how behind they even are.

There are 2 main aspects to the Bombardier delays:
a) Physical construction
b) Software

a) they have effectively finished all the Crossrail stock done with some delays due to the extent of LU09 Stock mods needed for the 3rd choice of signalling system. The most of the 710s are complete and at least 10x 720 complete
b) should get mostly sorted with the 710s

With testing, training and familiarisation requirements having a small initial number of units doesn't make sense so you'd expect a reasonable number to be complete and then deliveries could be fairly rapid when everything is sorted production rates of 2x 5car or 1x 10car a week. but that only works is Anglia can sort training to sustain that delivery pace.

 

[RailWonderer]

There are 2 main aspects to the Bombardier delays:
a) Physical construction
b) Software

I heard the software issues were on the earlier Aventras, haven't they been solved? I haven't heard of physical construction issues, know anything more?
I passed Old Oak Common last Thursday and the amount of 345s stored there is impressive. I don't think I've seen so much rolling stock in one place at one time.
Still, at this rate, prepare for many months of an all 321 GEML with no 360s from August onwards.

 

[samuelmorris]

I passed Old Oak Common last Thursday and the amount of 345s stored there is impressive. I don't think I've seen so much rolling stock in one place at one time.
Still, at this rate, prepare for many months of an all 321 GEML with no 360s from August onwards.

It will likely be very similar to the situation as now, some 720s in service but not sufficient to cover all the 360s that have been withdrawn, so there will be a period of short-forms while that happens. Shouldn't be more than a couple of months.

 

[anamyd]

Another 3 170’s due to go this weekend.

Still nothing on RTT. If no-one can find any schedules for this, I might just go to Cardiff Central tomorrow and Sunday just in case these 170s go through...

According to @dk1 202/204/206 will be moving "at some point" - perhaps this weekend as claimed...?

 

[delticdave]

No they won't, the 360s will probably have been in service with EMR for considerable time by then. All the leases will be extended to some degree, but it'll be the 321 leases that get extended the most, until that time. There may be some 321s that never actually leave due to the aforementioned platform length issues, which may ultimately be replaced with a follow-on order of 4x20m stock, potentially extra 755s.

Interesting thoughts, if more 755's were ordered would they still be bi-modes or an EMU only variant?
I'd imagine that a 5-car articulated EMU would still fit into the Wickford bays (etc.) & pissbly be cheaper to
buy / lease / operate than a 4-car bi-mode. Two 2600 kW emu's departing from North Fambridge at the same time might drag the line voltage down though......

 

[samuelmorris]

Interesting thoughts, if more 755's were ordered would they still be bi-modes or an EMU only variant?
I'd imagine that a 5-car articulated EMU would still fit into the Wickford bays (etc.) & pissbly be cheaper to
buy / lease / operate than a 4-car bi-mode. Two 2600 kW emu's departing from North Fambridge at the same time might drag the line voltage down though......

Who knows, unless they fit into all the 'problem case' areas, they wouldn't be worth ordering, so 4-car is probably likely to be the maximum if they ever were ordered. 4x20m 720s (in other words 710s with transverse seating, toilets and carpets) could be an option but I suspect the cost of designing a 4-car interior for them might be prohibitive against simply ordering more 755s which have the benefit of being able to interwork with the rural fleet and thus both eliminate the risk of a microfleet for the problem areas as well as providing additional resilience across the network. If it were me making the decision, it'd be more 755/4s. Cost savings from ordering units without the diesel power pack may well be negated over time from having a separate fleet of units restricted to certain roles.

All that said, it's entirely likely that new stock would have to be negotiated with the DfT and a tender issued. As far as I'm aware there aren't any unused options in the existing fleet order.

 

[Shunter_69]

Not sure that works with the 755’s based in Norwich.

Wickford is a long way from Crown Point and you’d have to train all Southend and Ilford drivers as they don’t sign Stadlers.

 

[samuelmorris]

Not sure that works with the 755’s based in Norwich.

Wickford is a long way from Crown Point and you’d have to train all Southend and Ilford drivers as they don’t sign Stadlers.

Both those issues would have to be addressed if there is a serious intention to obtain new stock for those routes - as I mentioned earlier, I suspect they will simply retain some 321s instead (probably the refurbished ones to avoid PRM issues). This is a hypothetical.

 

[Carlisle]

When the plan first came out I thought they were about a year too optimistic, but it's gone even worse than I feared, so I'd say it was more touch than go.
.

Surely that was prior to the GTR & northern timetabling fiascos effectively giving the industry carte blanche to re assess & delay projects that might be deemed potentially disruptive to everyday services .

 

[Class 170101]

I wonder how difficult it would be for GA to lose the Class 360s (and maybe the non PRM 317s / 321s) and use a mix of Class 345s, stored around the network, and Class 720s in various numbers as an interim solution until the full Class 720 fleet arrives? Especially now Crossrail won't open next year.

 

[samuelmorris]

I wonder how difficult it would be for GA to lose the Class 360s (and maybe the non PRM 317s / 321s) and use a mix of Class 345s, stored around the network, and Class 720s in various numbers as an interim solution until the full Class 720 fleet arrives? Especially now Crossrail won't open next year.

Probably very, they'd need to be subleased from TfL, drivers would need training on them and they'd need testing in the relevant areas. There are also won't be that many spare 345s that are suitable for use as the 9-car units aren't ready themselves yet, and all the 7-cars will be being used for TfL Rail services after they take over the Reading services in December.

 

[Trainfan344]

Move for something to go from Norwich to Tyseley on Monday, https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K05083/2019-11-11/detailed Then possibly Tyseley to Cardiff on Tuesday? https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K05084/2019-11-12/detailed

 

[anamyd]

Move for something to go from Norwich to Tyseley on Monday, https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K05083/2019-11-11/detailed Then possibly Tyseley to Cardiff on Tuesday? https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K05084/2019-11-12/detailed

170s, eventually to Transport for Wales on the Tuesday

 

[168001]

170s, eventually to Transport for Wales on the Tuesday

I fear not

 

[anamyd]

I fear not

why...? have you been told something...? The schedules aren't showing as having been cancelled on RTT, so far as I can see they are going to Cardiff, just sleeping over at Tyseley on the way

 

[306024]

In view of the mods yellow card on the GA a rolling stock thread, perhaps this is a better place to discuss the current shortcomings.

Last night it appears the 17.03 Norwich to Liverpool St and 19.30 return were cancelled no stock, while the 17.00 Norwich to Liverpool St and 19.00 return both ran. So you end up with two trains from Liverpool St to Norwich at 19.00 and 19.02, then nothing until 20.00. Unless there is a subtle operational reason why this is necessary (not obvious) then you do have to question some of the priorities involved in decision making.

Also cancelling the 08.00 Norwich to Liverpool St and 10.30 return two days running this week is equally poor. Last week the 07.40 up and 10.00 return were cancelled instead. All to prioritise the 09.00 Norwich to Liverpool St that only calls at Ipswich.

 

[trebor79]

I agree, it's ridiculous to prioritise the Norwich in 90 when folk from anywhere north of Ipswich have no other option.

 

[lord rathmore]

I might have commented on these Forums how worn-out the 90s/Mk3s are. I'm currently on a totally knackered 321 on the NRW to LST run, and this bag of bolts makes the Mk3s look good, especially on a Inter-City service. GA are running a terrible service atm, with the new trains so late.

 

[86246]

I agree, it's ridiculous to prioritise the Norwich in 90 when folk from anywhere north of Ipswich have no other option.

It was a service they introduced with great publicity back in May. As a result there is perhaps too much focus on those services. They did have a spell of cancelling the Norwich in Ninties but I expect that the EDP’s report on the reliability of those services a couple of weeks back gave them the negative publicity they did not welcome.

 

[LAX54]

In view of the mods yellow card on the GA a rolling stock thread, perhaps this is a better place to discuss the current shortcomings.

Last night it appears the 17.03 Norwich to Liverpool St and 19.30 return were cancelled no stock, while the 17.00 Norwich to Liverpool St and 19.00 return both ran. So you end up with two trains from Liverpool St to Norwich at 19.00 and 19.02, then nothing until 20.00. Unless there is a subtle operational reason why this is necessary (not obvious) then you do have to question some of the priorities involved in decision making.

Also cancelling the 08.00 Norwich to Liverpool St and 10.30 return two days running this week is equally poor. Last week the 07.40 up and 10.00 return were cancelled instead. All to prioritise the 09.00 Norwich to Liverpool St that only calls at Ipswich.

Must admit I too thought that the Ni90 would be the first to be cancelled, but the stock for that does not get into Norwich until 0830, from London, so no use for the 0740

 

[306024]

Must admit I too thought that the Ni90 would be the first to be cancelled, but the stock for that does not get into Norwich until 0830, from London, so no use for the 0740

Yes you’d have to put 321s back on the 06.25 Liverpool St to Norwich to free an InterCity set up earlier, with other consequential alterations. There may be a reason why that is no longer possible (it used to be done that way) but again it isn’t obvious.

Local Norfolk publicity (GA are on the front page of one of the regional papers today) seems to be dictating decisions. The article is about Flirt trains but also refers to Ni90 punctuality.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Local Norfolk publicity (GA are on the front page of one of the regional papers today) seems to be dictating decisions. The article is about Flirt trains but also refers to Ni90 punctuality.

Are you surprised?

Greater Anglia in its current form has always been preoccupied with its image and PR above everything else.

A sad development because they were a breath of fresh air compared to National Express in their shorter deal

 

[ashkeba]

Are you surprised?

Greater Anglia in its current form has always been preoccupied with its image and PR above everything else.

And its image and PR in Norwich. Cambridge area travellers can go fly themselves because they know we are less likely to drive and the other operators here often make GA look good!

 

[F Great Eastern]

RMT are now saying that there are new proposals to cut catering back on the new rolling stock that have just been announced.

With all the rolling stock problems, continued bad press, morale in the engineering department apparently being low due to layoffs happening very soon, 2020 could be even worse than 2019.

 

[samuelmorris]

RMT are now saying that there are new proposals to cut catering back on the new rolling stock that have just been announced.

With all the rolling stock problems, continued bad press, morale in the engineering department apparently being low due to layoffs happening very soon, 2020 could be even worse than 2019.

Well, low staff morale doesn't necessarily forecast a year of issues in itself, especially when change is underway. 2020 will be worse for punctuality for sure, as either the old stock will continue to rot or the new stock will have arrived and be in its infancy with the usual lower MTIN figures to begin with.