Greater Anglia 2019 - What could possibly go wrong?

[hwl]

Not sure why some people seem desperate to point out things that are wrong or when they were right.
I don't think anyone at Stadler has tried to delay the introduction to the UK.
No company is going to add an extra couple of months on to an order as a "just in case" prediction either.

I also can't remember any project that hasn't been delayed in one way or another.
So the real question is, why are people surprised, or "predict" it'll be late?
It's not a prediction... it's normal.

I also can't think of any company that doesn't stretch the boundaries of truth.
I have personally been involved in a marketing campaign that was a downright lie... to get people talking about the company.

I think it is the case that GA took the supplier delivery estimates and then didn't add some delay allowance in themselves to provide realistic dates. Every manufacturer has had issues lately

 

[HH]

A recent study on complex UK Railway Projects found that 86% of them overrun. So, yes it's the norm, but does that mean that's acceptable and should be expected? I would rather say that people should start making realistic projections and then run the programme efficiently.

 

[hwl]

A recent study on complex UK Railway Projects found that 86% of them overrun. So, yes it's the norm, but does that mean that's acceptable and should be expected? I would rather say that people should start making realistic projections and then run the programme efficiently.

Amen!
People need to think some nasty thoughts at the beginning and be realistic rather than believe everything will go to plan, TfL are changing their tendering process to include more on managing the inevitable when problems occur...

 

[47421]

There was a https://newanglia.co.uk/ rail conference on Friday, see tweets at @newanglialep. Below is the GA presentation. Most notable is the "Timetable improvements".

Some major backtracking here:

• "Most other timetable improvements likely to be phased in over the following two years" - "most" ie not all we promised. Time will tell but seems like the extra TPH off peak to Hertford East and Southend, and the extension of the hourly semi fast LivSt to Ipswich to Norwich, the extra train per 2 hours Ipswich to Peterborough, the extension of the Norwich Camb to Stansted Airport, the extra hourly Camb to Liv St fast Audley End to Tott Hale and the extra 2TPH Stortford to LivSt may never happen
  
  
• "phased in over the following 2 years" = we have abandoned the promised total recast promised May 2020 - previously publicity said "May 2020 Completely new timetable with 1,144 additional weekly services" now all we will say is that some changes will be made between now and May 2021, with no commitment to a minimum number of additional services nor anything about number of seats when used to say "32,000 extra seats available into London in the morning peak"
  
  
• "However, likely to see some journey time reductions and Sunday frequency improvements" - "some" = a token few and "Sunday frequency improvements" = weekday timetable going to be substantially identical and nothing like the promised "10% reduction in average journey times across the network"

This is a sorry business for passengers and GA alike. If the extra Ipswich to Peterborough services don't happen that's 3 bimodes sat spare every day, clocking up leasing costs but not earning

BTW I am still trying to find out when the new 2TPH all day Meridan Water to Stratford service will start. GA, TfL and DfT have ignored my requests on this. Anyone any idea?


====================================================================================

GEML Taskforce Stakeholder Conference

Presentation by Greater Anglia
1 February 2019

Jamie Burles

Managing Director

Greater Anglia update

§New trains update
§Customer service and commercial update (including DR15)
§Performance update

New trains update

§The first completed train was unveiled at the InnoTrans exhibition in Berlin in September 2018
§Stadler continue to test the new trains across Europe before they are delivered to the UK
§The first four Stadler trains have arrived on our network, with testing and commissioning now underway
§A series of successful stakeholder trips were held in Switzerland and Derby last year
§Ilford and Norwich Crown Point upgrades progressing well
§Other maintenance and stabling arrangements to be announced soon

New trains update (2)

§First new trains expected in passenger service from the early summer onwards
§Stadler bi-mode trains to be first
§First Bombardier trains expected in service in the autumn
§All trains due to be in service by the end of 2020
§Our Stakeholder Equality Group have been consulted throughout the entire process on the accessibility aspects of the new fleet, leading to further enhancements
§Feedback on train quality (both train types) is very good

Benefits for customers and communities

§Intercity services all 12 carriages, not 8 or 9 as they are now
§More seats - circa 20%
§More comfortable on-train environment
§Air conditioning, fast free wifi, plug points, USB ports
§Better access and accessible toilets
§6 cycle spaces (currently 6 on intercity trains/4 on local trains)
§More reliable and resilient
§Suburban trains offer a similar increase in capacity
§Regional services will be all 3 & 4 carriage trains, not 1, 2 & 3 carriage trains, as they are now

Timetable improvements

§Aiming to introduce two Norwich in 90 and Ipswich in 60 services each way from May 2019
§Most other timetable improvements likely to be phased in over the following two years
§Impact of challenges elsewhere on the UK network last year have had a knock-on effect and some schemes are dependent on infrastructure upgrades (mainly level crossings)
§However, likely to see some journey time reductions and Sunday frequency improvements

Customer service and commercial update

§Station investment in more seats, better lighting, new information screens and re-surfacing of platforms
§£25 million investment in car park upgrades with ANPR, CCTV, re-surfacing, more spaces and easier payment options
§Launched our initiative to make smartcards the default option for season tickets (highest UK smart take-up)
–Customers can still request a paper ticket if they wish
§2019 sees flex-carnet launched and 26-30 Railcard becomes a national standard product
§Further work and DfT discussions on Delay Repay 15, now nearing agreement
§Ticket vending machine roll out to most regional stations now complete, enabling easier ticket purchase and better information provision
§Additional land sheriffs employed to further improve our customer safety, security and service standards
§Taking part in the national trial of a new passenger assist app
§New vegan range and wine options on intercity trains
§Launched our new customer newsletter

Performance update
§Annual performance at 87% against national average of 85%
–Challenging start to the New Year with several infrastructure related incidents
–Reduced adverse impact of Autumn conditions through joint action plan with Network Rail
§After some challenges with short formations, primarily due to cl. 321 Renatus problems, these are now much reduced
§Performance summit held with Network Rail in December to drive improvements during 2019 and £20 million investment in reliability initiatives for our existing trains
§Performance improving, but more to do

Next steps
§Try and secure agreement on DR15
§New trains commissioning, training, deployment
§May 2019 timetable – planning introduction of Norwich in 90 and Ipswich in 60 services (2 each way, as per the contract)
§Main new train roll out begins in the middle of the summer
§New marketing and PR campaign, plus new uniforms
§Most of the Stadler trains due in service by the end of 2019
§Other timetable improvements to be phased in
§Continued stakeholder campaign for infrastructure investment

 

[Alfie1014]

Pretty much as many have been predicting then!

 

[samuelmorris]

I suspect some of that may be them hedging their bets since the date when the 720s are fully introduced is a complete unknown at this point. That is one factor affecting new timetables since a large part of those promised improvements hinge on the 720 fleet. The PRM crisis hasn't yet been resolved to my knowledge (i.e. I haven't seen evidence to suggest a full derogation has been granted to cover the period until 720s are introduced) so no assurances can be made whatsoever until either that is resolved or if not, until sufficient stock to replace that which isn't PRM-compliant can be introduced, which isn't going to be until well after the May 2020 timetable change. December 2020 may be doable.

Secondly, timetable recasts have attracted a bit of a reputation thanks to Northern and Thameslink so any new timetable introduction that completely alters things needs all the prerequisites in place before it is implemented. It is right for Anglia not to want to even go near this idea until they know exactly when everything will be in place to achieve it. Why that should preclude more basic improvements like 4tph off-peak to Southend I'm not really sure, but the rest of it, while disappinting, is totally understandable.

What I do take issue with is:

§All trains due to be in service by the end of 2020

I would have thought by now this should have been written off as unachievable

§Feedback on train quality (both train types) is very good

Feedback from who?

 

[HH]

§First Bombardier trains expected in service in the autumn
§All trains due to be in service by the end of 2020

Can anyone remind me how many new 720s there will be?

 

[47421]

89 x five-car
22 x ten-car

when looking that up google took me to this report - https://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/class-720s-set-to-begin-east-anglia-duties-in-march-2019

March 2019 looking like December now

 

[Greg Read]

They keep on about 3tph to Norwich, this will be OK for most hours, but there will be times when you cannot run 3 to Norwich, the system will not let you, if you take ECS moves / Loco moves / North Walsham tanks, then there will be little space for the 3rd passenger service.

 

[Wivenswold]

The landscape has changed with rail travel over the last few years so admitting the plan may have been over-ambitious (which they haven't actually done it would seem) is understandable. All of the economic indicators are bad, many city firms are moving to Ireland and Germany and redundancies are expected, many financial experts predict a significant financial crisis over the next few years with what's being called the "Student Debt Bubble". City Slickers are betting on UK failure which is always a bad sign.

Home-working is also having a big impact on passenger numbers. The days of an army of suits getting the early o'clock train to the city are over. London housing prices are forcing people that work in the capital to move out and commute in but these are from all professions going to destinations throughout the metropolitan area at all hours, the peaks are less defined now.

I do wonder if some of the cuts are because they simply haven't ordered enough trains. Hopefully now we won't have to put up with wall to wall 5 car trains off-peak.

The biggest issue for me is that GA won the franchise based on improvements that are now shelved or cancelled. It is not good enough that neither the DfT or Abellio anticipated changes in travelling habits, the home-working revolution was predictable and many of us on here have warned about it over the last ten years. The vote for Brexit came before the franchise award, a time for the DfT/GA to reflect on what that means for the future of GA Services seems to have been missed.

Yet another situation that suggests those looking after the country and its infrastructure are not very smart and when they trip up they lie their way out of crisis after crisis. The only winners at the moment are lawyers. I picked the wrong profession.

 

[samuelmorris]

If a large number of voters didn't anticipate the omnishambles that is Brexit negotiations, I think it's far that a TOC didn't see it either. Over-ambitious growth forecasts in franchise bids are the #1 reason for franchises failing, however, so that should be taken a lot more seriously. The improvements being delayed/cancelled, however, I suspect would have happened regardless of which of the three bidders won out.

 

[Wivenswold]

I think you're right, it's a dangerous time to be committing to any investment in the UK so whoever got the franchise would have had problems, well, maybe not the "complete fleet renewal" problems.

There were some commentators warning that it was going to be a clusterfudge but were shouted down for spreading "Project Fear". For me it wasn't so much the process of leaving as I just about on the EU side of the fence, more my lack of confidence in the ability of MPs generally, especially ones who use dog-whistle slogans but provide no details behind them.

I doff my cap for the excellent use of "Omnishambles".

 

[43074]

There was a https://newanglia.co.uk/ rail conference on Friday, see tweets at @newanglialep. Below is the GA presentation. Most notable is the "Timetable improvements".

Some major backtracking here:

• "Most other timetable improvements likely to be phased in over the following two years" - "most" ie not all we promised. Time will tell but seems like the extra TPH off peak to Hertford East and Southend, and the extension of the hourly semi fast LivSt to Ipswich to Norwich, the extra train per 2 hours Ipswich to Peterborough, the extension of the Norwich Camb to Stansted Airport, the extra hourly Camb to Liv St fast Audley End to Tott Hale and the extra 2TPH Stortford to LivSt may never happen
  
  
• "phased in over the following 2 years" = we have abandoned the promised total recast promised May 2020 - previously publicity said "May 2020 Completely new timetable with 1,144 additional weekly services" now all we will say is that some changes will be made between now and May 2021, with no commitment to a minimum number of additional services nor anything about number of seats when used to say "32,000 extra seats available into London in the morning peak"

I think you're being unduly pessimistic here - e.g. posts on this forum have indicated the Norwich to Stansted service will be happening, albeit there are pathing difficulties in the peak which is completely to be expected given the number of trains through the Cambridge/Ely area at that time. Equally there's no obvious reason not to go ahead with the extra off peak services, but some degree of reworking may well be needed to accommodate them (e.g. platforming at Liverpool Street) which is probably why they haven't happened as planned. Phasing everything also derisks having a single change date.

Clearly not implementing all of this will also have severe financial repercussions for both Abellio and the DfT so I think it's rather jumping to conclusions to claim it "may never happen". I'm sure it will happen, just later than originally envisaged; it is surely more sensible to wait for everything to be in place before trying to implement a timetable change with insufficient numbers of drivers or units available Northern or Thameslink style.

 

[47421]

It is true I am skeptical / cynical about GA. Time will tell whether it is fair or not. But the TSR 2 requirements for May 19 were not particularly demanding (extra TPH off peak to Hertford East and Southend, the extension of the hourly semi fast LivSt to Ipswich to Norwich, the extension of the Norwich Camb to Stansted Airport) and they delivered none of them, and there is no commitment to deliver them as far as I am aware. The additional resources required for these services are trivial compared with what they said they would deliver by May 2020. They are delivering Norwich in 90, better than nothing I suppose.

And it is not just new services. GA committed in the Franchise Agreement by Oct 2018 to install SDO beacons at 96 platforms and on 27x317s, they committed to extend various platforms by Sept 2018 to accommodate 5 or 10 car 720s, they committed to install wifi on the entire existing fleet by Dec 19, they committed to PRM mods on 27x317s. All of these commitments have not been met (or re PRM mods very unlikely to be met as only 1 of the 27 done so far).

And what about Meridian Water to Stratford? Network rail are spending over £100m on this but GA wont say when the service will start.

As I say time will tell whether I am unduly pessimistic - I might have to come back and withdraw some of my cynicism, eg if the Meridian Water to Stratford service does in fact appear in May.

 

[samuelmorris]

They are delivering Norwich in 90, better than nothing I suppose

One might argue worse, since the detriment to regular users of the line caused by introducing that outweighs the benefits for Norwich passengers.

 

[Class 170101]

DfT shouldn't be letting operators get away from their franchise obligations but they seem to be all to readily, fearing the operators taking their ball home and not playing the game. The passengers in the end suffer.

 

[samuelmorris]

Trouble is, to play devil's advocate, if it was under nationalised operation and the same thing happened, what would happen then? I don't think anybody is really able to be held accountable in the rail industry these days. The concept of a punishment per se, doesn't really seem to work.

 

[F Great Eastern]

One might argue worse, since the detriment to regular users of the line caused by introducing that outweighs the benefits for Norwich passengers.

Yes, it's introduced a fairly big gap in some of the other services by moving one service forward and the one after back which will cause overcrowding to allow the 90 minute Norwich service to go in. It's just a publicity stunt at the end of the day and to allow an MP to say they got something for their constituents, regardless of the impact on many more.

 

[samuelmorris]

Yes, it's introduced a fairly big gap in some of the other services by moving one service forward and the one after back which will cause overcrowding to allow that service to go in. It's just a publicity stunt at the end of the day and to allow an MP to say they got something for their constituents, regardless of the impact on many more.

As well as doing things like this:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/L70010/2019/05/30/advanced

Today's 3.5 min dwell at Witham has doubled to 7 minutes. That the service runs 28 minutes later than before is also quite significant, but that may well be timed with ferry crossings.

 

[F Great Eastern]

DfT shouldn't be letting operators get away from their franchise obligations but they seem to be all to readily, fearing the operators taking their ball home and not playing the game. The passengers in the end suffer.

I was sketpical about the whole thing from day one and honestly none of this surprises me, they promised a hell of a lot and it was always going to be unlikely they could deliver it unless everything went right for them, nothing got delayed and they had a bit of luck. There was no margin for error and they've gone off the page in several directions.

 

[F Great Eastern]

As well as doing things like this:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/L70010/2019/05/30/advanced

Today's 3.5 min dwell at Witham has doubled to 7 minutes. That the service runs 28 minutes later than before is also quite significant, but that may well be timed with ferry crossings.

I'm sure they pax will enjoy twiddling their thumbs for 7 mins at Witham.

From what I've seen the effect of the new faster Norwich services are longer dwell times on suburban services, longer journey times, removal of certain paths and literally pushing one train on a route to one side, pushing the next one to the other and slamming the new Norwich service in the middle.

The problem you're going to have is poor passenger distribution, you're going to have a situation where services with a fairly even spread are going to get two trains fairly close together, with the second one probably not that busy, then a pretty long gap and sardine like conditions as it takes both it's usual load and the people who would have got the service that has become even earlier now that probably can't make it.

 

[samuelmorris]

One interesting change is the (re?)introduction of 360-operated peak time services calling at Shenfield. That 1820 slot the Harwich service used to occupy (which no longer serves Shenfield) has been replaced by an 1819 Walton service (which does).

 

[Alfie1014]

As well as doing things like this:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/L70010/2019/05/30/advanced

Today's 3.5 min dwell at Witham has doubled to 7 minutes. That the service runs 28 minutes later than before is also quite significant, but that may well be timed with ferry crossings.

I doubt it has anything to do with ferry the times of which are ‘driven’ by the hauliers, excuse the pun! When ever I’ve caught the evening boat foot passengers don’t start boarding until around 22:00. I think the destination of the new 18:48 is more about where to berth a long train for the night now the 18:20 now 18:19 now goes to Walton.

 

[samuelmorris]

On that basis I suppose it makes little difference to ferry travellers then.

 

[47421]

NewAngliaLEP have kindly published the conference papers from last Friday 1 Feb 2019, available here

https://newanglia.co.uk/great-eastern-rail-campaign/

• Delivery against franchise commitments - Jamie Burles
• Improving performance: maintaining and renewing the railway 2019 - 2024 - Meliha Duymaz
• Network Rail GEML study and possible future enhancements - Richard Taylor
• Rail Network enhancements pipeline - Tony Potter
• Enhancement case study: Ely - Rizwaan Hanid

 

[eastdyke]

NewAngliaLEP have kindly published the conference papers from last Friday 1 Feb 2019, available here
https://newanglia.co.uk/great-eastern-rail-campaign/

• Delivery against franchise commitments - Jamie Burles
• Improving performance: maintaining and renewing the railway 2019 - 2024 - Meliha Duymaz
• Network Rail GEML study and possible future enhancements - Richard Taylor
• Rail Network enhancements pipeline - Tony Potter
• Enhancement case study: Ely - Rizwaan Hanid

Thank you for both finding and posting.
Very little word on the impact of level crossings on the various enhancements, except perhaps for Ely. For which enhancement I see we have progressed to some drawings, pictures and a flow diagram!
I am sure there is still much discussion about chickens and eggs but how about some costs and some allocations for funding?
[Yes I know that Queen Adelaide is 'difficult']

 

[47421]

Agreed - it is very thin stuff

For the record I picked through the Train Service Requirements, appreciate that various of these already announced as not happening. Main changes TSR2 (May 2019) to TSR3 (May 2020) on weekdays are:

Sudbury extended through to Colchester Town x17 and from Colchester Town x 14
Lowestoft to Ipswich extended through to Liv St x4
Ipswich to Peterborough increased from 8 TPD to 16 TPD of which 13 to start / terminate at Colchester
Norwich to Yarmouth up from 22 TPD to 28 TPD
Norwich to Sheringham up from 17 to 19 TPD
Norwich to Cambridge increases from 17 TPD (15 to/from Stansted Airport) to 18 TPD (17 to/from Stansted Airport)
LivSt to Harlow Town and Bishops Stortford extra TPH off peak

Think I was mis-remembering about Liv St to Cambridge which retains its existing 2TPH off peak 4TPH peak, for some reason I thought it was going to 3TPH off peak

TSR 3 also includes the following minimum journey time requirements:

 

[Panupreset]

The low passenger growth at Chelmsford and Colchester indicates to me these stations have reached capacity. With continued housing development in and around Chelmsford the case for Beaulieu Park is quite strong.

To deliver some of the proposed infrastructure upgrades such as remodelling Bow junction and double tracking north of Shenfield I cannot see weekend engineering work ending in the next decade. But that is the price you pay for allowing long standing infrastructure deficit to remain in place.

 

[Alfie1014]

NewAngliaLEP have kindly published the conference papers from last Friday 1 Feb 2019, available here

https://newanglia.co.uk/great-eastern-rail-campaign/

• Delivery against franchise commitments - Jamie Burles
• Improving performance: maintaining and renewing the railway 2019 - 2024 - Meliha Duymaz
• Network Rail GEML study and possible future enhancements - Richard Taylor
• Rail Network enhancements pipeline - Tony Potter
• Enhancement case study: Ely - Rizwaan Hanid

What an underwhelming set of presentations, so many words sacrificed to say so little and I've done my share of waffly slide shows in my time!

The low passenger growth at Chelmsford and Colchester is interesting, I wonder whether Ipswich and Norwich are holding up better due to the improvements to their rural services over the years?

Colchester over the last 10 years has been England's fastest growing town in terms of population, (something like +20-25%), with many more thousands of houses being built at Severalls, Stanway and soon at Monkwick. That said peak hour road congestion is awful as the roads have not been expanded to meet the demands of the increased population and getting to or near North station is chaeelnging at peak times. Chelmsford similarily is enjoying massive growth so the demand is there but is it being tempered by other factors I wonder?

Performance in the last year has been pretty awful and Jamie Burles infurring that 87% PPM is OK because it's better than the national average of 85% is a bit rich, especially as their target for the first year of CP6 is supposed to be 89.2% according to the ORR.

Short formations on the EMU fleet which are still on-going have probably impacted Chelmsford and Colchester commuters more than those travelling to London from Ipswich and Norwich on the hauled sets. I wonder if there will be a noticable 'new trains' effect when they come in?

Weekend engineering works; we're now into the 5th or 6th winter of limited or no weekend services to London plus the same on all Bank Holidays. Many around these parts don't consider using the train at weekends now and drive down the A12 towards London and pick up the tube or c2c at Upminster or the Central line or don't visit at all. All of this adds up to depressing demand combined with more flexible working must throw so doubt on the future predictions for this and other franchises.

 

[Shunter_69]

I doubt it has anything to do with ferry the times of which are ‘driven’ by the hauliers, excuse the pun! When ever I’ve caught the evening boat foot passengers don’t start boarding until around 22:00. I think the destination of the new 18:48 is more about where to berth a long train for the night now the 18:20 now 18:19 now goes to Walton.

This train forms the 20:45 back to London (8 of the 12 that leave London at present). Will be interesting to see how this affects the driver diagrams as at the moment the drivers only official break is the 45 mins between arrival and departure on a 9 hour plus job.