Greater Anglia 2019 - What could possibly go wrong?

[trebor79]

The xx04 departure would get it neatly to Cambridge on time to pick up the current xx30 Stansted departure path (and would also flight behind the xx57 Lime Street and xx00 Liverpool street departures from Norwich, before stopping its way to Ely)

But that shafts the possibility of people from intermediate stations like Attleborough getting to Peterborough and the world beyond there.
Presently, the Cambridge train preceeds the EMT service, so you can change at eg Thetford or Ely to pick up the EMT. The reverse is true coming back to Norwich. It works quite well.

 

[TheDavibob]

But that shafts the possibility of people from intermediate stations like Attleborough getting to Peterborough and the world beyond there.
Presently, the Cambridge train preceeds the EMT service, so you can change at eg Thetford or Ely to pick up the EMT. The reverse is true coming back to Norwich. It works quite well.

The connection onto the Birmingham at Ely will be 10-15 minutes, if the timings stay the same, which isn't woeful, though granted it is a less pleasant train than the Liverpool.

 

[Alfie1014]

December is now looking decidedly iffy. My money is on May 2020. Looks like between 15-17 through services (some morning SX may terminate Cambridge due to pathing issues). Rumours of xx:04 departures from Norwich but nothing confirmed.

Also wouldn’t work on the hours when there’s an xx:03 to Liverpool Street, unless that changes if or when the GEML is recast?

 

[arb]

An xx04 departure from Norwich to Cambridge/Stansted would also, I think, mean that the longest gap between trains on the Ely to Cambridge route (where there are 4tph) would increase to 30 minutes. It's about 25 minutes at the moment, so it's not really a massive change, but a 30 minute gap on a 4tph service is the psychological point at which I start to think "that's not ideal".

Current off-peak times for Ely to Cambridge: xx17 (GN), xx38 (GA), xx47 (GN), xx53 (XC). Longest gap = 24 minutes
Times with Norwich departure moved would be: xx02 (GA), xx17 (GN), xx47 (GN), xx53 (XC). Longest gap = 30 minutes

(For completeness, times before the May 2018 changes: xx25 (GN), xx38 (GA), xx52 (XC), xx58 (GN). Longest gap = 27 minutes)

 

[bramling]

365s aren't going to last forever. They'll need replacing by something in the next 5-10 years.

How do you arrive at that?

They’re only just over half life (entered service 1997 IIRC), and nowadays are doing relatively low mileages. The only complication is ETCS, although I’m sure there was originally a plan to fit them with this. Should hardly be a difficulty with plenty of spare units and a test facility close at hand.

 

[trebor79]

The connection onto the Birmingham at Ely will be 10-15 minutes, if the timings stay the same, which isn't woeful, though granted it is a less pleasant train than the Liverpool.

It's also frequently rammed, whereas there's usually seats on the Liverpool. Shifting more passengers onto the Birmingham is the opposite of what should be happening.

 

[samuelmorris]

How do you arrive at that?

They’re only just over half life (entered service 1997 IIRC), and nowadays are doing relatively low mileages. The only complication is ETCS, although I’m sure there was originally a plan to fit them with this. Should hardly be a difficulty with plenty of spare units and a test facility close at hand.

1995 I believe, but yes, very premature to suggest their removal. What's probably prompted that is the general consensus that seems to have been arrived at that the DC Networkers are life expired and due for replacement (which I understand is indeed proposed by all the bidders for the new SE franchise). Their MTIN figures are respectable and comparable to quite a few modern classes, even if not the best.

I do certainly understand the point, however, that 25 year old units being used while well-respected, 8-year old units that are air-conditioned and have offered class-leading reliability figures sit in storage is questionable. Such is the nature of new franchises harmonising their fleet.

 

[HH]

That remains to be seen for the Stadler fleet. At least after 2 years the Class 700 has exceeded the MTIN figures posted by a lot of old DMUs and that's for 8 and 12-car trains rather than 1 or 2-car units, so I don't think there'll be an issue with the 755s exceeding the reliability of the GA sprinters, the question is how quickly will it be achieved.

Of course it remains to be seen, the fleet isn't running yet! I'm just saying what the current numbers show (as published in Modern Railways).

Are you really comparing modern EMUs with BR DMUs???

 

[samuelmorris]

Of course it remains to be seen, the fleet isn't running yet! I'm just saying what the current numbers show (as published in Modern Railways).

Are you really comparing modern EMUs with BR DMUs???

Yes, since your point was that modern stock has lower reliability scores than the units it replaces for considerable time after introduction, which while true, isn't especially concerning given that the stock the 755s are replacing is already near the bottom of reliability tables.

 

[Wivenswold]

If GN were thinking of replacing the existing 365 fleet then they could do worse than take on the 21 Class 360s when GA releases them in 2021-ish. 280 seats per unit and some spare fleet capacity if you include the 360/2s with TfL at the moment.

 

[F Great Eastern]

No, I also assume not happening. I have asked TfL, GA and DfT, emailing all of them first week of Jan, and have only received holding responses. Last week started FoI-ing DfT and TfL on it. What was budget, £170m or something - why should taxpayers expect to be kept up to date on progress on how it is being spent!? And they wonder why people are skeptical about HS2...

In my dealings with GA, a holding message and various different types of them pretty much means it's bad news - GA don't do bad news, it's good news, spin, answering a slightly different question from the one you actually asked, deflection or a holding message.

 

[700007]

I may be late to spotting this but I have noticed some of the orange stickers inside the trains on the windows that were promoting the new trains in 2019 were missing from my 317 today.... All other stickers promoting the app etc still present.

 

[dk1]

I may be late to spotting this but I have noticed some of the orange stickers inside the trains on the windows that were promoting the new trains in 2019 were missing from my 317 today.... All other stickers promoting the app etc still present.

Most window stickers removed a few weeks back. New advertising programme has begun in preparation of the first new trains.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Does it feature the number 2020?

 

[dk1]

Why we tie ourselves down to dates on the railways has always baffled me. They tend to be over ambitious. Gradual introduction as & when would be so much better than promising something undeliverable.

 

[HH]

Yes, since your point was that modern stock has lower reliability scores than the units it replaces for considerable time after introduction, which while true, isn't especially concerning given that the stock the 755s are replacing is already near the bottom of reliability tables.

But what about the 360s and 321s, which is what the majority of passengers use?

 

[samuelmorris]

But what about the 360s and 321s, which is what the majority of passengers use?

Much the opposite effect to begin with - I didn't mention those originally as your point came directly out of a discussion regarding the current poor reliability of the 153s and 156s.

In the case of 720s vs 321s and 360s, actually getting the software to work at all aside, 345s have been painfully slow at achieving a respectable MTIN. While I'm not necessarily expecting improvement on the 720s to be as slow, I think it's fairly likely that the MTIN of the 720s is unlikely to exceed 10,000 within the first 2 years of operation - a level even Renatus 321s are now exceeding, let alone 360s which are almost an order of magnitude better than that. Being Bombardier stock, I don't think the 720s will ever match the MTIN the 360s achieved, but the fact that only two units are needed for a full-length train instead of 3 may allow sufficient improvement that they eventually become comparable after, say, 4-5 years. That's a wild guess based on the level of performance the 379s achieved, and assumes the software on 720s will ever be mature enough to avoid reducing the reliability offered by Bombardier's previous generation of units. A complete unknown at this point whether that will actually turn out to be the case. I'm confident the reliability levels over 321s will be exceeded within 3 years of introduction (so, say some time in 2023), and the 317s probably within 18 months. Since 360s only make up a small proportion of the current fleet, that should be good enough to see an improvement over the current situation. Notably, though, when shortforms do occur due to unit issues (since minimal spare units have been ordered this will still happen), you are no longer 8 vs 12, you are 5 vs 10.

 

[bramling]

1995 I believe, but yes, very premature to suggest their removal. What's probably prompted that is the general consensus that seems to have been arrived at that the DC Networkers are life expired and due for replacement (which I understand is indeed proposed by all the bidders for the new SE franchise). Their MTIN figures are respectable and comparable to quite a few modern classes, even if not the best.

I do certainly understand the point, however, that 25 year old units being used while well-respected, 8-year old units that are air-conditioned and have offered class-leading reliability figures sit in storage is questionable. Such is the nature of new franchises harmonising their fleet.

It definitely wasn’t as early as 95. There was a timetable recast which from memory occurred in May 1997, which brought in the X06/21/36/51 pattern out of King’s Cross, and which was as far as I know when 365s entered what could be described as squadron service on GN. I remember before that there was a 20:43 out of KX, I think to Kings Lynn, which had always been 1x317 but which did turn out a 365 once or twice before then. That must have been my first ride on a GN 365. I remember seeing 365540 and 41 arrive at Hornsey complete with bubble wrap!

I think the Connex units may have entered service slightly earlier. How about late 1996?

I remember some publicity on the local news, with some commuters remarking how wonderful rail privatisation was having delivered these superb new trains so soon! Somewhere in a cupboard I have a leaflet that was handed out by WAGN “introducing the new 365 train”. 20 years later they’re still popular with users.

 

[Wivenswold]

Noting that's it's drifting of topic but 22 of the original allocation of 25 GN 365s (365517-365541) were delivered by the end of 1996. 365525/532/538 were the stragglers.

However, their build dates span 1994 - 1997.

 

[Kojo87]

Don't know if this is the right thread to post this in but forgive me as it's my first time posting , But I was on twitter earlier yesterday and saw that the " 12:49 Manningtree to London Liverpool Street will be terminated at Colchester at 12:58. This is due to a train not stopping in the correct position at a station earlier today. GA " and just wondered how and why a train stopping in the wrong position would cause it to be cancelled ?

 

[grumblingalong]

Don't know if this is the right thread to post this in but forgive me as it's my first time posting , But I was on twitter earlier yesterday and saw that the " 12:49 Manningtree to London Liverpool Street will be terminated at Colchester at 12:58. This is due to a train not stopping in the correct position at a station earlier today. GA " and just wondered how and why a train stopping in the wrong position would cause it to be cancelled ?

If the driver has made a safety error, it will need to be investigated and depending on the exact situation until that investigation has been completed they may not be permitted to drive. Equally, the stress of that incident and likely investigation may lead them to feel they are not concerntrating properly, putting them at risk of another error, so they may not wish to continue their shift.

 

[lordbusiness]

Don't know if this is the right thread to post this in but forgive me as it's my first time posting , But I was on twitter earlier yesterday and saw that the " 12:49 Manningtree to London Liverpool Street will be terminated at Colchester at 12:58. This is due to a train not stopping in the correct position at a station earlier today. GA " and just wondered how and why a train stopping in the wrong position would cause it to be cancelled ?

More than likely that a train was stopped in the wrong position on a platform- at the 4 car board rather than the 8 so the back of the train was hanging over the edge of the platform. If the doors are released this is a safety incident and therefore would be investigated. It normally means the driver is relieved and if there was no replacement driver available then train cancelled. SSDR in railway terms- Stop Short Doors Released.
Alternatively it could a failed to call at a station which would have the same result or just a pure and simple tech fault.

 

[LAX54]

Error earlier in the morning.

 

[noodlepoodle]

I don't know if it's just my perception, but amongst the Greater Anglia doom and gloom I've been finding the WAML exceptionally reliable for the last month or so.

Last year there was a patch where I was getting delay repay at least once a week; haven't had to make a claim yet this year. Very few short forms, and trains that I could normally rely on being a few minutes late are running on time.

Have there been any changes in the background to make this happen, or is it chance? Long may it continue and hope it's a positive sign for the introduction of the new trains.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Personally whilst the short forms are not as bad as they were, they're still too high and the overall condition of rolling stock is at quite a low point, I've been on 170s, 379s and 317s in the last week that I've not seen in such a bad condition since NXEA days.

They've clearly scaled back maintenance on fleets being replaced, they've even hinted at it in the media in the past when they spoke about challenges of maintaining a fleet that was soon to be replaced by new trains.

 

[Alfie1014]

On the GE side it had been getting better but the last week or so there has been a series of failures, two 90s on Tuesday, major points failure at Haughley Junction last evening then a liner train with a seized traction motor blocking the up line overnight near Colchester last night. OK not all GAs fault by any means but the consequences can be just as bad for passengers. Short forms on the GE side are still too high though, not surprising when 5 x 321s were substituting for hauled sets yesterday.

 

[MrPIC]

I heard the other that day that 2x317 units have been sent to Scotland (?) for PRM mods, and also that the 317/3's will be fitted with the HID Headlights like the /5 and /8. Any info or confirmation?

 

[apinnard]

On the GE side it had been getting better but the last week or so there has been a series of failures, two 90s on Tuesday, major points failure at Haughley Junction last evening then a liner train with a seized traction motor blocking the up line overnight near Colchester last night. OK not all GAs fault by any means but the consequences can be just as bad for passengers. Short forms on the GE side are still too high though, not surprising when 5 x 321s were substituting for hauled sets yesterday.

Colchester up passenger loop has seen a handful of failed 90s this week.

 

[dk1]

Colchester up passenger loop has seen a handful of failed 90s this week.

Quite unusual. These things tend to happen in succession.

 

[Class 170101]

Colchester up passenger loop has seen a handful of failed 90s this week.

Control have forgotten that the Thunderbird isn't in the adjacent siding (anymore).