Greater Anglia : Improved TOC?

[387star]

I was thinking not long ago many posters were fed up with the trains out of Liverpool Street one poster Ginger being especially critical

Strikes me that not much is said of them now with most trains well refurbished and new stock on the way

Is GA well run these days ?

 

[47421]

They are doing ok right now. I use West Anglia, the timetable is OK, it just about works, lots of small delays but no major issues, and the exGN 317s have clearly helped, lots less shortforming, and no 4 car shoulder peak diagrams any more, and has allowed 2 x 12 car diagrams on StanExp which is welcome.

But, got to remember they have run basically a steady state franchise for many years. We will find out how good they are next 12-24 months as trains replaced and timetable reworked.

I am sceptical - Brantham is late/not happening, franchise agreement commitment to ensure 12 cars trains can stop at Hertford East, Wickford, Manningtree, Kings Lynn, Elsenham, Ware, St Margarets and Enfield Lock Stations by 1 Sept 2018 will be probably be missed, and SDO on 317s and trackside beacons by 31 October 2018 also looking tight.

And we haven't seen any proposed new timetables yet either. May 2019 Hertford East goes 3 TPH off peak, STAR starts and Norwich Cambridge extended to Stansted A all day - should be doable. Its the May 2020 TSR 3 which looks very challenging.

 

[gingerheid]

How is STAR coming along?

 

[Z12XE]

The stock situation hasn’t been so good on the east side.
Endless intercity short forms for months, and there seems to be a similar problem now with the EMUs.

Whilst it’s accepted that this weeks problems have been down to infrastructure is really hasn’t helped the number of 8v12 services that have run following multiple cancellations.

 

[47421]

Good question interested to hear if anyone has any inside information. Was originally scheduled for competition Dec 18, but slipped for reasons unknown to May 19, but they appear to be making good progress on the ground.

STAR will of course offer a welcome doubling of frequency TottHale to Stratford, but was descoped and is now just a siding with no connection to West Anglia main line, so offers no extra capacity, for example mainline trains will not have access to new platform at TottHale

 

[Alfie1014]

Still quite variable in my opinion, though so many delays are down to NRs failing infrastructure, see this weeks closure of 11 and 12 at Liv St. That of course can’t be blamed on GA but then short forming the remaining services that are running or starting short doesn’t help. I’ve heard that the problems with 321s is due to the receivership of one of the suppliers of spares, so again not GAs fault but not helping either. Where they also don’t help themselves is comms, where they still seem to be reluctant or slow to pass on the real story and just trott out the usual platitudes!

In respect of the new timetables, the clock is ticking, they’re obliged to consult as per the Franchise Agreement and we’re waiting with baited breath! And as for Brantham that must be dead in the water but what will replace it?

 

[Z12XE]

Brantham depot is dead. AIUI its a case of upgrade Norwich and stick a fuel point in at Colchester.

I think some Silverlink 321s were only short term I guess they've gone back off lease now which hasn't helped the availability of the fleet?

 

[Anon_GA_user]

GA may or may not be well run, but I understand that it is teetering on the edge of deep financial trouble.

We refer to GA as "Abellio" all the time, but it's worth remembering it is operated by a consortium of two companies - Abellio (60%) and Mitsui (40%). The consortium was awarded the franchise (August 2016) and committed to pay HM Government £3.7 billion over 9 years. That's more than what Stagecoach / Virgin bid for the East Coast franchise, and reportedly £600m more than the next highest bidder.

Should we be worried? Perhaps. I have no hard information to rely on, but for one odd question asked in Parliament last January.

On 10 January 2018, Andy McDonald (Labour MP for Middlesbrough) asked the Secretary of State in the House of Commons this during a debate on rail franchising:

The Government should have followed Labour’s example. When the operator defaulted in 2009, Labour took the contract back into the public sector. If a company defaults, it does not deserve a contract. Taking a contract back into the public sector would mean that there is no reward for failure, and other companies in the industry would not expect the same treatment. In the light of what happened with the east coast franchise, what plans does the Secretary of State have to renegotiate the TransPennine Express, Northern and Greater Anglia franchises?
​

Chris Grayling did not answer. Why did McDonald specifically mention those three franchises? What information does he have that is not in the public domain? This was the first time that GA was mentioned in relation to the troubles with the East Coast franchise.

I have asked 'informed sources' (not the Rail columnist!) what's going on - all I have heard back is that all is not well within the consortium, and Mitsui are the ones who are unhappy.

 

[Pugwash]

As ALFIE1014 said, far too many short formations, getting the GEML back at weekends ( until August BH ) will be a bonus as it has been a 5 day railway for too long.

 

[Anon_GA_user]

One more thing... replacing every single train with new - including two types that are entirely new to the UK - is going to be a big task. If GA are as well run as their fans claim, I hope they're going to demonstrate it by managing this huge operational transformation smoothly.

 

[Shunter_69]

Someone suggested part of the problem with lack of units is due to fitters at Ilford working to rule over their transfer across to Bombardier ahead of the new stock arriving.

 

[PeterC]

SNIP
I am sceptical - Brantham is late/not happening, franchise agreement commitment to ensure 12 cars trains can stop at Hertford East, Wickford, Manningtree, Kings Lynn, Elsenham, Ware, St Margarets and Enfield Lock Stations by 1 Sept 2018 will be probably be missed, and SDO on 317s and trackside beacons by 31 October 2018 also looking tight.
/SNIP

Wickford?
I haven't paid much attention to GA since I moved out of the area but I recall 12 coaches at Wickford being standard for peak hour fasts in the 1980s. Has somebody been cutting back on platform maintenance or is this just 12 longer coaches?

 

[SPADTrap]

In my opinion, GA will be the next franchise to hand the keys back; just you wait!

 

[47421]

I think their business plan requires significant growth on the back of the increased capacity to be provided by the new fleet. No doubt the new fleet will induce some additional demand, on west Anglia there is standing every day from Audley End, as well as all points south, and more people will commute when they realise they can get a seat. But the usage stats to date are ominous, those published today show a 1.7% passenger km decline on GA Jan - March 2017 v Jan - March 2018. Not as bad as some other commuter TOCs (SWR down 6.8!), but must be way off what they were projecting.

I was prompted to take a look at the Abellio East Anglia Limited accounts at Companies House. Latest filed YE 31 March 2017. Page 31 note 18 is interesting. Says that the franchise agreement revenue risk sharing mechanism is driven off Central London Employment stats, not rail usage, and CLE stats jumped unexpectedly in 2015/16 and 16/17. Says "the reasonableness of the index is subject to further review and discussion with DfT, as recent trends are not in line with alternative benchmark measures". Tee hee "we bodged the contract and we would really really like it if we could pretend we didn't agree what we said we agreed, is that ok please Mr Grayling"

Goes on to say that the accounts have been prepared on the basis of Abellio's preferred measure, Workforce Jobs, not what the contract says. Very interesting - if no agreement reached with DfT the accounts will have to be revised.

 

[Shunter_69]

Wickford and Manningtree are already 12 car platforms. I’m assuming they are referenced as the bays only hold 4 cars and the new stock will effectively be equal to 6 cars.

 

[43096]

I have asked 'informed sources' (not the Rail columnist!) what's going on

On a point of pedantry, "Informed Sources" is the name of the column written by Roger Ford in Modern Railways. Nothing to do with Rail - indeed Rail has no-one anywhere close to the calibre and contacts of either Roger Ford or Ian Walmsley, hence why Rail is not taken seriously...

 

[jamesontheroad]

On a point of pedantry, "Informed Sources" is the name of the column written by Roger Ford in Modern Railways. Nothing to do with Rail - indeed Rail has no-one anywhere close to the calibre and contacts of either Roger Ford or Ian Walmsley, hence why Rail is not taken seriously...

Tsk tsk - they have Barry Doe, a man whose understanding of rail fares is so comprehensive that I imagine he operates like Ben Affleck's character in The Accountant

As an aside, I occasionally share a train with Rail's Assistant Editor Richard Clinnick, so I will put some of the points raised in this thread next time I see him. I will politely overlook 43096's opinion of his magazine

 

[47421]

Anyone know what the amount of the parent company support is under the 2016 Franchise Agreement? Google doesn't tell me, and Franchise Agreement refers to a Funding Deed which is not available as far as I can tell.


NS Annual Report 2017 says:

"In 2017, the ScotRail franchise in the United Kingdom showed disappointing results, while the expectations relating to passenger growth and revenue growth for the Greater Anglia franchise have become less predictable. Despite various improvement initiatives, passenger revenues are lower than expected. The reasons for this are: a) disappointing economic growth resulting from uncertainty regarding the consequences of Brexit; b) patterns of passenger behaviour that deviate from trends, as a result of which initiatives aimed at passenger growth are failing to have the desired effect; c) dependency on Network Rail to deliver infrastructure projects on time."

There is a number for parent company guarantees but it is a global number including for various German operations so cannot see how much they have guaranteed in respect of GA.

(BTW can we not have a debate about merits of Rail v Modern Railways on this thread please)

 

[LAX54]

Wickford and Manningtree are already 12 car platforms. I’m assuming they are referenced as the bays only hold 4 cars and the new stock will effectively be equal to 6 cars.

A 12 car driver cannot see the signal at Manningtree when stopped in the platform, (Down Line) one of the reasons such trains have guards from Colchester

 

[Shunter_69]

You have to go past the signal to get a 12 car into Manningtree on the down road. You obviously had a proceed aspect to go past in the first place. If you overshoot slightly it will go back to red which causes more confusion.

 

[Wivenswold]

I commute but not to London. My overall thought about GA is; Better than National Express. Train interiors are much better thanks to refreshes and refurbishments. Wifi dodgy. Communication is still poor when the service goes bad and in respect of some very big changes coming up.

When you consider that commuters are buying 1st class annual season tickets but may not have realised that their new trains in 10 months will be standard class only, then you have another perfectly avoidable PR issue imminently. I've contacted their communications team on a few of these issues but you've probably guessed that I've heard nothing back.

I do wonder whether Abellio/Mitsui are hiding something and that they could be considering throwing in the towel or at least threatening same to the DfT. If they're looking for a good moment to apply maximum pressure, then the EU-based Abellio may want to wait until the strongly-rumoured Autumn general election. We're in a bit of a holding loop with Brexit at the moment. A lot of businesses that I deal with in my line of work are waiting on some indication of what Brexit actually entails but their fingers are lingering over the "abandon UK" button. My company has relocated its HQ to Dublin already.

 

[Z12XE]

I don’t think any current 1st class annual season ticket holder will have to worry about the lack of first class with their tickets.

At any time a 1st class holder could get a changeover at a ticket office, and get the remaining difference back anyway.

 

[Sleepy]

GA have issued instructions to retail staff regarding 1st Class disappearing from most routes with the new stock. Z12XE is correct about changeover for season holders.

 

[EssexGonzo]

The stock situation hasn’t been so good on the east side.
Endless intercity short forms for months, and there seems to be a similar problem now with the EMUs.

Whilst it’s accepted that this weeks problems have been down to infrastructure is really hasn’t helped the number of 8v12 services that have run following multiple cancellations.

Exactly this. The short forms are becoming very tedious. This morning's peak as an example: 0821, 0824 and 0826 from Shenfield into Liv St were all 8car when they're normally 12. Surely someone could have space the short-forms out? They seem to be getting more frequent.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Honestly I have to say that Greater Anglia are certainly an improvement over what came before (National Express) even if they are not as good as what came before National Express on the GE side when it was AR and FGE. but it's hard to find any real serious faults at the moment truth be told.

I do have misgivings about their whole full rolling stock replacement program however, since whilst clearly GA needs a lot of new rolling stock, I feel they're trying to replace too much at once with the end result being we get a full fleet of new adequate trains rather than retain a small fleet of mid-life trains and a big fleet of good new trains.

There's also question of what they do with the current 8 car EMUs with the rolling stock replacement program since replacing them with a 5 car EMU will reduce capacity and they don't have enough units on order to replace every 8 car EMU with a 10 car EMU. Plus I'm sceptical about how tight the seats are going to be together on the new stock because GA have gone out their way to avoid telling anyone or showing a photo of a regular pair of airline seats in a run of the mill carriage.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Exactly this. The short forms are becoming very tedious. This morning's peak as an example: 0821, 0824 and 0826 from Shenfield into Liv St were all 8car when they're normally 12. Surely someone could have space the short-forms out? They seem to be getting more frequent.

Cynics would say that it's no coincidence that train availability goes down just before the whole lot are about to be returned off lease in the next year or so!

 

[MP33]

My 1st class annual is due for renewal in October. Will I be charged a pro rata amount or will any balance be refunded?

Last week 1st class was declassified. I have asked Greater Anglia if this applied to Southend services so I can claim back the difference. I successfully claimed this earlier in the year when the carriage was locked out of use.

There were extra passengers in 1st class who appeared to think that it had been declassified.

 

[F Great Eastern]

I travelled First Class at the weekend on an MK3 rake and there was only one First carriage that was full and the guard suggested I fill in for compensation, have to see if I get it or not.

 

[Wivenswold]

GA have issued instructions to retail staff regarding 1st Class disappearing from most routes with the new stock. Z12XE is correct about changeover for season holders.

Thanks for that. I remain concerned that it's a flashpoint though. Some commuters will use the smallest stick and all that.

I assume that first class on EMUs will go en-masse rather than having a lottery over whether you'll be able to use your 1st class ticket on the next train. I haven't got a 1st class season by the way, I'm actually pleased it's going.

 

[F Great Eastern]

I only travel First Class on GA if someone else is paying or there is very little difference between a First Class advance and a standard or the First Class is cheaper (which does happen!).

Can only think about 3 journeys in the last 12 months.