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GWR fleet procurement

Snow1964

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Passengers don't distribute themselves between services to take account of the formations. I saw a five coach service from Worcester to Paddington yesterdat morning go out full and standing from Reading with more people trying to cram aboard despite passengers being told there were longer trains behind. Five car trains can, and should, work through onto the Cotswolds but it needs much better yield management to put passengers onto the trains which are expected to have more capacity.
Of course designing a timetable where a 5car which has picked up at lots of stops, is run just ahead of a 9car with more capacity is a bad starting place for yield management.

GWR get similar problem in Trowbridge area where the 3 trains towards Bath are in same 29 minute window each hour, and not surprisingly the first one picks up more passengers (and there is virtually no yield management on that line)
 
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Dan G

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Sorry, amended post.

Not sure why GWR think it is a good idea to keep sticking five carriage units on services to Oxford. Always full and standing during the day. Saturdays, Sundays and on Bank Holidays!
Isn't it something along the lines of 2x5-cars are too long for the infrastructure, and there aren't enough 9-car trains to meet demand?
 

Energy

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Isn't it something along the lines of 2x5-cars are too long for the infrastructure, and there aren't enough 9-car trains to meet demand?
2x5 car is fine for Oxford services but too long for Cotswolds. The Cotswold services are fine 9 car peak and 5 car off peak but can get packed with passengers taking it to Reading.
 

The exile

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GWR get similar problem in Trowbridge area where the 3 trains towards Bath are in same 29 minute window each hour, and not surprisingly the first one picks up more passengers (and there is virtually no yield management on that line)
That, however is unavoidable if you have an hourly service overlaid on top of a half-hourly one (OK, I know the half hourly isn’t quite). Make the intervals at Trowbridge 20 minutes and the half-hourly then becomes 20-40 at somewhere like Keynsham.
 

HamworthyGoods

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Of course designing a timetable where a 5car which has picked up at lots of stops, is run just ahead of a 9car with more capacity is a bad starting place for yield management.

GWR get similar problem in Trowbridge area where the 3 trains towards Bath are in same 29 minute window each hour, and not surprisingly the first one picks up more passengers (and there is virtually no yield management on that line)

However the additional train from Westbury each hour runs in front of the Portsmouth to Cardiff specifically to provide some capacity relief to that train.
 

800301

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Isn't it something along the lines of 2x5-cars are too long for the infrastructure, and there aren't enough 9-car trains to meet demand?
You can’t run a 10 car DOO of which the Oxford terminators generally are and the easiest route to borrow a 9 car off is the Oxford, there was a 3 car turbo V 9car IET last week and even a 2 car turbo covered a run down to Reading V 9 car IET.

Ideally they would have electrified Oxford and you could run 12 car 387’s on the terminators, would bring some calm to the weekend loadings
 

Dan G

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There's still hope electrification will happen after the Oxford station remodelling is complete!
 

RacsoMoquette

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A Stadler FLIRT product would maybe be favourable, seeing as they can offer mixed propulsion, they would be ideal or GWR branch lines, especially seeing as GWR are exploring the logistics of widespread battery utilisation. It could be a more reliable and robust solution demonstrating the benefits of battery power, rather than use life expired D78TS which would be tiresome to convert and are only expected to last another fifteen years in revenue service or even less, seeing as Vivarail announced that in 2017, and those D78TS cars look pretty weather beaten after many years braving the elements in storage!
 

Snow1964

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There's still hope electrification will happen after the Oxford station remodelling is complete!
Although in a rational world, lots of work would be done during the closure for the replacement bridge not after (so need extra closure), at least putting in the span masts, if not putting up the individual wires over each track.
 

JamesT

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Although in a rational world, lots of work would be done during the closure for the replacement bridge not after (so need extra closure), at least putting in the span masts, if not putting up the individual wires over each track.
As I understand it, the new buildings on platform 4/5 will include masts ready for electrification. Though as they're still discussing what to do with the main station building, it might be a little premature to think about masts on that side.
 

Snow1964

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DfT have updated their pipeline spreadsheet 10th May


Have extracted data for GWR

Contract Title : Procurement of rolling stock for Thames Valley / North Downs and West (including options)
Short Description : Replacement of all existing DMUs (and possibly EMUs), excluding the IET fleet. Fleet size TBC but current estimates are for 480 vehicles (mixture of DC BEMU, AC BEMU, AC EMU and bi-modes) to be delivered between 2029 and 2031
Commercial Strategy: Re-Procurement (different scope)
Existing Contract End Date 30/06/2028
Existing Contract : Leases for EMUs and DMUs with various ROSCOs
Estimated Procurement Start Date 01/02/2025
Estimated Contract Commencement Date 01/03/2026
Planned Procurement Sourcing Route (level of competition) Negotiated procedure/Competitive tender
Existing Supplier : "Class 150s - Angel Trains & Porterbrook, Class 158s - Porterbrook, Class 165/166s - Angel Trains, Class 387s - Porterbrook"
 
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Towers

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Time to start making the most of ‘proper trains’, then!
 

Class15

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DfT have updated their pipeline spreadsheet 10th May


Have extracted data for GWR

Contract Title : Procurement of rolling stock for Thames Valley / North Downs and West (including options)
Short Description : Replacement of all existing DMUs (and possibly EMUs), excluding the IET fleet. Fleet size TBC but current estimates are for 480 vehicles (mixture of DC BEMU, AC BEMU, AC EMU and bi-modes) to be delivered between 2029 and 2031
Commercial Strategy: Re-Procurement (different scope)
Existing Contract End Date 30/06/2028
Existing Contract : Leases for EMUs and DMUs with various ROSCOs
Estimated Procurement Start Date 01/02/2025
Estimated Contract Commencement Date 01/03/2026
Planned Procurement Sourcing Route (level of competition) Negotiated procedure/Competitive tender
Existing Supplier : "Class 150s - Angel Trains & Porterbrook, Class 158s - Porterbrook, Class 165/166s - Angel Trains, Class 387s - Porterbrook"
387s?! They’re only 8 years old!
 

Snow1964

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387s?! They’re only 8 years old!

Doesn't mean they are being scrapped, but might be replaced towards end of the tender around 2031.

If GWR gets new battery EMUs (which is the plan) then they will be left with a mixed fleet of BEMU and 387 (which probably won't work in multiple).

probably best to think of what early 1990s EMUs might need replacing elsewhere, or a newly electrified line that will need spare EMUs, maybe even a shuffle of dual voltage stock to South Eastern, but working out stock transfers 6-7 years time is speculation.


AUToMERGE

Estimated 480 vehicles is obviously based on something (but not exactly current fleet size)

150 (40 vehicles), 158 (41 vehicles), 165 (88 vehicles), 166 (63 vehicles), class 387 (120 vehicles), class 387 Heathrow Express (48 vehicles). Could add upto 3 Castle HSTs on anyone day out of bigger fleet
 
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JonathanH

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387s?! They’re only 8 years old!
Plenty of other places 30 387s could be used on the network, as by the start of the 2030s it might be reasonable to be providing slightly more capacity on the routes other 387s operate on.
 

anthony263

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Plenty of other places 30 387s could be used on the network, as by the start of the 2030s it might be reasonable to be providing slightly more capacity on the routes other 387s operate on.
Tfw might have the 387s if we actually see the North Wales coast wired
 

Energy

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Tfw might have the 387s if we actually see the North Wales coast wired
That's a big if, and I can't see why the 387s are particularly suitable for that work. If the 387s go anywhere it'll probably be more to Southern or SouthEastern.

The DfT and GWR will be constantly evaluating their fleet strategy. I imagine they will want a consistent fleet at Reading that can handle the branches, North Downs, and the Didcot services ideally with battery to Oxford. Allowing options within Project Churchward increases their fleet options, but the 387s could remain.
 

jimm

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2x5 car is fine for Oxford services but too long for Cotswolds. The Cotswold services are fine 9 car peak and 5 car off peak but can get packed with passengers taking it to Reading.
If only there was the neat and tidy binary divide in passenger numbers beyond Oxford that you imply.

What does peak even mean these days?

Weekend loadings both days west of Oxford can put pressure on 5-car sets, which partly explains why GWR increased the number of 9-car sets in use on Sundays on the Cotswold Line at last December's timetable change, so that the overwhelming majority of services are worked by 9-car sets.

A few more 9-cars on Saturdays would be helpful as well and the weekday 08.15 5-car from Worcester to Paddington in particular can get pretty cosy the closer it get to Oxford (and very cosy indeed if it's a school holiday period) - and most of those passengers are travelling past Oxford, not getting off there, contrary to popular myth on this forum.

If someone wanted to find the money to move certain signals and points, 2x5 operation should be feasible as far as Worcester Shrub Hill, thanks to the platform extensions provided between there and Oxford in 2018. But Foregate Street is probably impossible to adapt, due to the difficult location.

You can’t run a 10 car DOO of which the Oxford terminators generally are and the easiest route to borrow a 9 car off is the Oxford, there was a 3 car turbo V 9car IET last week and even a 2 car turbo covered a run down to Reading V 9 car IET.

Ideally they would have electrified Oxford and you could run 12 car 387’s on the terminators, would bring some calm to the weekend loadings

The problem is that because GWR operates a 30-minute interval fast service to Oxford, many people just head for Paddington and get on the next available departure - they aren't going to wait another half-hour just because the next one has lots of seats and no passengers travelling to places past Oxford

The DfT and GWR will be constantly evaluating their fleet strategy. I imagine they will want a consistent fleet at Reading that can handle the branches, North Downs, and the Didcot services ideally with battery to Oxford. Allowing options within Project Churchward increases their fleet options, but the 387s could remain.

I can assure you that what GWR (and Network Rail) ideally want is to have 25kv overhead to Oxford (and a bit further up the Cotswold Line at least as far as Hanborough if they can get it), confining batteries - which now seem to be competing with hydrogen to be the new bionic duckweed form of propulsion for trains, whatever the practicalities and full-life costs - to places where they make sense, such as the Thames Valley branches, or bridging the gaps between the sections of third rail on the way from Reading to Redhill, not on busy main lines.
 

anthony263

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If only there was the neat and tidy binary divide in passenger numbers beyond Oxford that you imply.

What does peak even mean these days?

Weekend loadings both days west of Oxford can put pressure on 5-car sets, which partly explains why GWR increased the number of 9-car sets in use on Sundays on the Cotswold Line at last December's timetable change, so that the overwhelming majority of services are worked by 9-car sets.

A few more 9-cars on Saturdays would be helpful as well and the weekday 08.15 5-car from Worcester to Paddington in particular can get pretty cosy the closer it get to Oxford (and very cosy indeed if it's a school holiday period) - and most of those passengers are travelling past Oxford, not getting off there, contrary to popular myth on this forum.

If someone wanted to find the money to move certain signals and points, 2x5 operation should be feasible as far as Worcester Shrub Hill, thanks to the platform extensions provided between there and Oxford in 2018. But Foregate Street is probably impossible to adapt, due to the difficult location.



The problem is that because GWR operates a 30-minute interval fast service to Oxford, many people just head for Paddington and get on the next available departure - they aren't going to wait another half-hour just because the next one has lots of seats and no passengers travelling to places past Oxford



I can assure you that what GWR (and Network Rail) ideally want is to have 25kv overhead to Oxford (and a bit further up the Cotswold Line at least as far as Hanborough if they can get it), confining batteries - which now seem to be competing with hydrogen to be the new bionic duckweed form of propulsion for trains, whatever the practicalities and full-life costs - to places where they make sense, such as the Thames Valley branches, or bridging the gaps between the sections of third rail on the way from Reading to Redhill, not on busy main lines.
Pity they haven't considered fitting 2rd rail shows and batteries to the 387s and chucked them on the north down line
 

Sly Old Fox

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Sorry, amended post.

Not sure why GWR think it is a good idea to keep sticking five carriage units on services to Oxford. Always full and standing during the day. Saturdays, Sundays and on Bank Holidays!

Because they’re the only trains they have available. Comparing Oxford to Cambridge, Cambridge gets a half hourly 8 carriage electric service direct to Kings Cross, whereas Oxford gets a (mostly) 5 carriage bi mode service that calls at Reading. It’s a shame for Oxford really, and probably won’t be resolved unless the wires arrive.
 

Energy

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If only there was the neat and tidy binary divide in passenger numbers beyond Oxford that you imply.

What does peak even mean these days?

Weekend loadings both days west of Oxford can put pressure on 5-car sets, which partly explains why GWR increased the number of 9-car sets in use on Sundays on the Cotswold Line at last December's timetable change, so that the overwhelming majority of services are worked by 9-car sets.
Good point, Oxford gets a lot of leisure demand so I'd consider the weekends 'peak loadings' throughout the day. By 'off-peak' I mean that a 5 car unit is fine at say 14:00 on a Tuesday.

This is where 5 car units do make some sense, as it would allow most maintanence do be done during work hours when the fewest units are required.
If someone wanted to find the money to move certain signals and points, 2x5 operation should be feasible as far as Worcester Shrub Hill, thanks to the platform extensions provided between there and Oxford in 2018. But Foregate Street is probably impossible to adapt, due to the difficult location.
I presume Foregate Street would need the signals sorting? Otherwise a carriage hanging off the back and SDO wouldn't be too bad.
I can assure you that what GWR (and Network Rail) ideally want is to have 25kv overhead to Oxford (and a bit further up the Cotswold Line at least as far as Hanborough if they can get it),
Yes, its mad that Oxford hasn't been wired. Assuming it isn't then battery is better then separating the service at Didcot.
 

800301

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Yes, its mad that Oxford hasn't been wired. Assuming it isn't then battery is better then separating the service at Didcot.

Battery imo is not the best option, they just need to electrify it, that was the original plan and allows more options for rolling stock
 

Snow1964

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Does the term "DC BEMU" mentioned above mean Dual Voltage BEMUs?
No - for the North Downs line, I suspect. Areas along that route are 3rd rail electrified and the class 769s were previously planned to run this route.
It's rather confusing terminology, because if part of the order is for regional BEMUs (eg Cardiff-Portsmouth) then would probably be dual voltage as the line from Redbridge to Portsmouth is third rail electrified, whereas other end (Patchway-Cardiff is 25kv)

The North Downs and Gatwick services are a bit of an oddity for GWR, and if DC BEMU would need to use batteries to reach their depot. If they are effectively line specific then obviously need a bigger fleet to provide spares because cannot have standard (ac BEMU) units covering from general pool of spares.
 

Stephen42

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It's rather confusing terminology, because if part of the order is for regional BEMUs (eg Cardiff-Portsmouth) then would probably be dual voltage as the line from Redbridge to Portsmouth is third rail electrified, whereas other end (Patchway-Cardiff is 25kv)

The North Downs and Gatwick services are a bit of an oddity for GWR, and if DC BEMU would need to use batteries to reach their depot. If they are effectively line specific then obviously need a bigger fleet to provide spares because cannot have standard (ac BEMU) units covering from general pool of spares.
At this early stage, I wouldn't read too much into the summary of the requirements. It's plausible the summary is heavily simplified and there's several options/variations at play or a subset of a fleet that would need 3rd rail capability with others allowed to be AC BEMUs. Also possible are prepared to accept solutions with higher overall vehicle count as they care about most economically advantageous, which naturally leans towards fewer vehicles but a supplier significantly cheaper with a few more trains might still be cheaper overall.
 

jimm

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Good point, Oxford gets a lot of leisure demand so I'd consider the weekends 'peak loadings' throughout the day. By 'off-peak' I mean that a 5 car unit is fine at say 14:00 on a Tuesday.

This is where 5 car units do make some sense, as it would allow most maintanence do be done during work hours when the fewest units are required.

I presume Foregate Street would need the signals sorting? Otherwise a carriage hanging off the back and SDO wouldn't be too bad.

Yes, its mad that Oxford hasn't been wired. Assuming it isn't then battery is better then separating the service at Didcot.
The IETs that work morning peak trains to London after spending the night at Hereford or Worcester usually go straight to North Pole depot after reaching Paddington.

Foregate Street is just a no-no for anything other than 9-car sets with SDO - you can't put a platform extension out over the road bridge (which is listed) at the western end and the eastern end of the platform is on a curve, which continues on the embankment beyond, and there houses below, so even Brunel might think it a challenge too far.

Re battery trains, I wouldn't want to be the person who had to deal with the consequences if a 25kv emu set, running on batteries, failed between Didcot and Oxford.
 

HamworthyGoods

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Re battery trains, I wouldn't want to be the person who had to deal with the consequences if a 25kv emu set, running on batteries, failed between Didcot and Oxford.

Why would it be worse than dealing with any other failed train on this section? In the same way battery trains can run out of power so can diesel trains run out of fuel and those operate over that section of route without regular failures.
 

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