Harlow Local Plan - proposed Central Line extension

[DIW]

Ahem, also used extensively in Brazil (including Curitiba which is famed for its BRT with tube style bus stop waiting areas) and Switzerland - where they tend to be trolleybuses. I think that some other South American nations also use them.

Luxembourg, too.

 

[Bald Rick]

Revising my estimates to take account of the increased cost of electric buses, I estimate the scheme would cost £12-15 million (minus whatever grant you get from the Office of Low Emission Vehicles, Arriva North West got 4.9 million off them as I mentioned above).

You appear to have omitted the £20m+ cost of a new, simple junction off the M11. The new junction 7a is costing twice that.

I also think that estimates of 8,700 passengers each way is ‘controversial’. That’s more than 3 times the number of passengers using Harlow station each way per day, and a decent proportion of those aren’t going to London. It would nearly treble the number of people using Epping station too.

Try the sums again with 800 passengers each way a day.

 

[AlastairFraser]

You appear to have omitted the £20m+ cost of a new, simple junction off the M11. The new junction 7a is costing twice that.

I also think that estimates of 8,700 passengers each way is ‘controversial’. That’s more than 3 times the number of passengers using Harlow station each way per day, and a decent proportion of those aren’t going to London. It would nearly treble the number of people using Epping station too.

Try the sums again with 800 passengers each way a day.

20million is way too much. Have a look at this suppliers' estimate of the cost of the new bus only junction on the M32 in Bristol.

2,900 use both Mill/Town a day each way - allow for up to 30 percent not heading to London and you would get a figure of 2,030 a day , so there is potential for more than 800 a day on the bus.
The Epping figures are low because the public transport and parking options in Epping are poor for both and this would radically transform those options.

But, OK, let's model on 800 every rush hour period.
800 people each way over a 3hr rush hour would mean a bus every 10 mins with a fare of £1.50 each way taking 16 mins (20 mins including recovery time).
You would have a capacity of 720 an hour that way to give a load factor of 36.9 percent at best (assuming demand is roughly spread over those 3 hours, 800/3 = 266, 266/720 = 36.9%), perfectly decent for a comfortable travelling experience.
For the off-peak hours in service (5am to 6am, 9am to 3pm and 6pm to midnight), I would envisage running a reduced service level of 4bph, with approximately 100 passengers an hour.
That's 1300 passengers + 800 commuters in the peak hours each way = 2900 a day.
2900 * 1.5 * 365 = £1,587,750 a year.

6 bph with a 20 min journey time would need roughly ten buses - 4 in service for the peak frequency, 4 for maintenance spares and 2 for service expansions/additional service if needed.
Stagecoach Manchester recently purchased 32 electric double decker buses (capacity 120) for their service at a price of £16.5 million, that is approx. £516,000 each, 10 buses works out at £5,160,000 at that price.
The bus only junction , with just entry and exit slips, would cost around £5 million.
Bus lanes along Second Avenue (including widening of the 1.4 mile long road) would cost around £3 million.
Plus another 2 million for the charging infrastructure, there are already bus depots in Harlow, so I don't account for storage.
Comes to £15.16 million, approx. the previous upper limit.
A grant of £815,000 according to this article detailing the formulae used to award the OLEV grant : Info on ULEV methodology.
That is £14.701 million.
Take away 20 percent for charging, admin and staffing, that gives a profit of £1,270,000.
That gives a loan payback time of 11.57 years.
Even on those low passenger numbers, that's not a bad investment for the government.
How long will the favoured HS2 take to repay, even if you postpone the most useful part in phase 2b tp reduce costs?

 

[Bald Rick]

20million is way too much. Have a look at this suppliers' estimate of the cost of the new bus only junction on the M32 in Bristol.

Built 5 years ago, for one sliproad. You’d need 2 sliproads at Epping, and couldn’t get it built for another 4-5 years. Construction inflation at 3%...

 

[AlastairFraser]

Built 5 years ago, for one sliproad. You’d need 2 sliproads at Epping, and couldn’t get it built for another 4-5 years. Construction inflation at 3%...

Given the majority of the cost is the bridge, which would not be needed. Inflation at 3 percent would be a marginal effect on the viability of the scheme.

 

[Bald Rick]

Inflation at 3 percent would be a marginal effect on the viability of the scheme.

A common mistake. 10 years at 3% is 35%. That is not marginal.

Given the majority of the cost is the bridge, which would not be needed.

Are you sure? Think about it carefully.

 

[Ediswan]

20million is way too much. Have a look at this suppliers' estimate of the cost of the new bus only junction on the M32 in Bristol.

10m 'Design and build', not the full project cost. Also 'costs were to be 10m', which rather suggests the actual number was different.

This document suggests the actual design and build cost was 13m.
https://www.graham.co.uk/projects/m32-bus-only-junction-bristol

Also, the new junction would be very close to the M25/M11 junction. That adds its own set of complications.

 

[Wolfie]

Harlow Bus Station to Epping for the tube via Second Avenue (A1025) , the A414 from Second Avenue Roundabouts to Hastingwood Interchange on the M11 (J7), 2 miles on the M11 to a bus only junction at Mount Rd to the east of Epping and 1.4 miles from there to Epping tube on a single carriageway road.
The high density of the buses is unfortunately required to run the service during rush hour - some of the vehicles could be used on local services outside of peak at the Harlow end, given I'd reduce the frequency to one every 15 mins outside of peak.
With a fare of £1.50 (same as London and similar to fuel costs for that distance) and 8700+ passengers each way, that's 9.25 million revenue a year.
Revising my estimates to take account of the increased cost of electric buses, I estimate the scheme would cost £12-15 million (minus whatever grant you get from the Office of Low Emission Vehicles, Arriva North West got 4.9 million off them as I mentioned above).
If the revenue is approximately 6 mil a year after costs, that would pay back on the investment after 3 years and make 6 million a year profit a year after then, a very attractive proposition for a prospective operator.
I'm not intending to submit this proposal to Harlow council or anything, it's just a idea showing that BRT is possible when Harlow's population hits 130k as it will by 2050.

I may be wrong but l thought standing on buses on motorways was prohibited.

A common mistake. 10 years at 3% is 35%. That is not marginal.

Indeed. People really don't understand compound interest.

 

[Ediswan]

I may be wrong but l thought standing on buses on motorways was prohibited.

It seems that whether standing is allowed depends on the vehicle, not the type of road.

Urban buses on motorways

www.gov.uk

Somehow though, I can't see a bus intended for this route getting approval for standees.

 

[Wolfie]

It seems that whether standing is allowed depends on the vehicle, not the type of road.

Somehow though, I can't see a bus intended for this route getting approval for standees.

TY

 

[Busaholic]

I may be wrong but l thought standing on buses on motorways was prohibited.

Actually, no. Whether or not it should be ia a question for another day, which in this country means when a number of standing passengers have died in an 'accident' on a motorway, and then only maybe and after a delay of twenty years. If you had a Traffic Commissioner prepared to stick their neck out, then possibly it might not happen, but more likely only delayed. It's a mad idea. The local T.C.'s office in recent years has tolerated a degree of cowboy operation in the Harlow area hardly seen on such a scale in other parts of the country in recent years.

 

[alex397]

Ahem, also used extensively in Brazil (including Curitiba which is famed for its BRT with tube style bus stop waiting areas) and Switzerland - where they tend to be trolleybuses. I think that some other South American nations also use them.

As well as Aachen and Hamburg in Germany. And even in Kaunas, Lithuania! (some ex-Dutch examples).

 

[AlastairFraser]

A common mistake. 10 years at 3% is 35%. That is not marginal.



Are you sure? Think about it carefully.

That's if you assume inflation will continue. I think our economy is going to go into deflation very quickly as the full effects of Brexit become apparent, savings rates are already rock bottom.
But that's not exactly discussion fit for a rail forum.
As to your second point, of course. The bridge deck is a huge component of that cost.

It seems that whether standing is allowed depends on the vehicle, not the type of road.

Somehow though, I can't see a bus intended for this route getting approval for standees.

I proposed long axle double deckers for this route, which is what the Burnley Bus Company use for their Witchway X43 service, spends a lot of its' journey firstly on the A682/A56 dual carriageways, then the M66 and the M60. I have certainly seen standees on there if it's busy.

 

[Ediswan]

I proposed long axle double deckers for this route, which is what the Burnley Bus Company use for their Witchway X43 service, spends a lot of its' journey firstly on the A682/A56 dual carriageways, then the M66 and the M60. I have certainly seen standees on there if it's busy.

Fair enough. That is an example of running a bus service on a motorway. Since 1978 if Google is correct.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Fair enough. That is an example of running a bus service on a motorway. Since 1978 if Google is correct.

Yep, there used to be a via Bury version of that, presumably to connect with the train/Metrolink, but it got dropped years back.
The only way to get from Bury to Burnley now is the 483, which takes an hour going up the old A56, then up the Rossendale Valley and over the moors or the 481/483 up the A56 to Rawtenstall and the Witchway over the top there.
There is also the Red Express from Accrington now that joins the M66 at the eastern end of Ramsderriere after passing through there, Stubbins, Haslingden, Rising Bridge and Baxenden from Accy.
Plus the Skyline 199 from Stockport (originating from Buxton) to Mcr Airport, it's really common in the North.

 

[Bald Rick]

That's if you assume inflation will continue. I think our economy is going to go into deflation very quickly as the full effects of Brexit become apparent, savings rates are already rock bottom.

Inflation has continued, with one or minor reversal, for 90 years. If anything, inflation is about to rise.

As to your second point, of course. The bridge deck is a huge component of that cost.

I know that. But you will need one. Think it about it carefully.

 

[BayPaul]

That's if you assume inflation will continue. I think our economy is going to go into deflation very quickly as the full effects of Brexit become apparent, savings rates are already rock bottom.
But that's not exactly discussion fit for a rail forum.

In any case you should be taking account of 5 years of inflation, not 10, so more like 17% in your calculations because the ticket price you have quoted is based on today's figures, and presumably would go up with inflation as well, though construction inflation has historically been higher.

 

[AlastairFraser]

In any case you should be taking account of 5 years of inflation, not 10, so more like 17% in your calculations because the ticket price you have quoted is based on today's figures, and presumably would go up with inflation as well, though construction inflation has historically been higher.

17 percent inflation would put it at approx. 15 years pay back time, still not bad for satisfying the Public Works Board awarding criteria.