Harlow Local Plan - proposed Central Line extension

[Busaholic]

In theory, Crossrail 2 might have mitigated the Vauxhall masses - which in turn would free up Victoria too.

The reality is that the Victoria line would basically still be full from Brixton and Stockwell (ie Morden up) alone.

Also, Herne Hill is fetished but it’s not a huge interchange or local demand driver either. Far better to go down Brixton Hill towards Streatham, where many more people live. Attrition somewhat, as many of those bus to Brixton now though - but half of Herne Hill’s catchment is a park! And most would stay on until Victoria - or TL folks would need the City anyway.

Brixton serves just fine, given the patterns today.

An extension of the Northern Line on a new trajectory from Kennington via Brixton to Streatham, with the majority of trains in the peaks running via Bank, would have been a far better way of getting the tube into this area imo, combined with the existing Victoria Line of course. If we weren't talking GB then a modern tram system from West Croydon as far as Kennington at least would be not only feasible, but desirable, but we're utterly incapable apparently of translating this to reality any more.

 

[duncanp]

An extension of the Northern Line on a new trajectory from Kennington via Brixton to Streatham, with the majority of trains in the peaks running via Bank, would have been a far better way of getting the tube into this area imo, combined with the existing Victoria Line of course. If we weren't talking GB then a modern tram system from West Croydon as far as Kennington at least would be not only feasible, but desirable, but we're utterly incapable apparently of translating this to reality any more.

One extension of the Northern Line which would be relatively cheap would be to Morden South, so that there could be interchange with the Thameslink station.

Nearly all of the track is there already, as it goes past the depot.

Ideally the Northern Line should then go on to North Cheam, with perhaps one intermediate station somewhere along the A24.

I know that this will never happen, but it is disappointing when you look at a city like Paris, where the metro is being extended beyond the peripherique, and tram lines are being built in the suburbs to connect communities to nearby metro and RER stations.

 

[AlbertBeale]

An extension of the Northern Line on a new trajectory from Kennington via Brixton to Streatham, with the majority of trains in the peaks running via Bank, would have been a far better way of getting the tube into this area imo, combined with the existing Victoria Line of course. If we weren't talking GB then a modern tram system from West Croydon as far as Kennington at least would be not only feasible, but desirable, but we're utterly incapable apparently of translating this to reality any more.

The reality of Kennington, surely, is that unless the whole lot of tracks and tunnels there were rebuilt (so closing the southern half of the northern Line for goodness knows how long), it was always only feasible to add any new southern extension in a way that linked it exclusively to the Charing Cross branch.

Remember that the anywhere-to-anywhere-without-conflicting-movements set up at Camden Town was built at the time when the second central London route was added to the mix there. And of course people complain that having all combinations operating cuts capacity at busy times compared to if there were through routes with no routine junction movements.

If the aim is to have an extra southern terminus of the line, with most - at least - trains from one terminus using one central London route, then the new route using exclusively Charing Cross and most Mordens going via Bank is the only feasible option. From a passenger perspective, there are of course arguments in favour of an anywhere-to-anywhere set-up like at Camden Town, but it wasn't on the cards for Kennington - having any of the new route going via Bank, let alone most - as suggested above - was a non-starter.

Of course, irrespective of this, if the direction of the new route had been chosen on the basis of the needs of existing Londoners, rather than according to the bribes of property developers, it would certainly have gone on one of the trajectories mentioned in this thread, and not to Battersea.

 

[rebmcr]

The reality of Kennington, surely, is that unless the whole lot of tracks and tunnels there were rebuilt (so closing the southern half of the northern Line for goodness knows how long), it was always only feasible to add any new southern extension in a way that linked it exclusively to the Charing Cross branch.

Remember that the anywhere-to-anywhere-without-conflicting-movements set up at Camden Town was built at the time when the second central London route was added to the mix there. And of course people complain that having all combinations operating cuts capacity at busy times compared to if there were through routes with no routine junction movements.

If the aim is to have an extra southern terminus of the line, with most - at least - trains from one terminus using one central London route, then the new route using exclusively Charing Cross and most Mordens going via Bank is the only feasible option. From a passenger perspective, there are of course arguments in favour of an anywhere-to-anywhere set-up like at Camden Town, but it wasn't on the cards for Kennington - having any of the new route going via Bank, let alone most - as suggested above - was a non-starter.

Of course, irrespective of this, if the direction of the new route had been chosen on the basis of the needs of existing Londoners, rather than according to the bribes of property developers, it would certainly have gone on one of the trajectories mentioned in this thread, and not to Battersea.

It wouldn't require a total rebuild, just a pair of parallel 'bypass' tracks dug to connect the Bank tracks to the Loop.

Of course, that would still have been more expensive and disruptive than the Charing X extension as built.

 

[AlbertBeale]

It wouldn't require a total rebuild, just a pair of parallel 'bypass' tracks dug to connect the Bank tracks to the Loop.

Of course, that would still have been more expensive and disruptive than the Charing X extension as built.

If you had a diverging route off of the Bank branch which then joined the loop [before the fork for the new extension line diverged from the loop of course, if that were geometrically possible], those trains wouldn't be able to call at Kennington... so ex-Bank passengers on that train wanting the Morden branch would be stymied. There's really no way to have everywhere to everywhere movements, without conflicting routes, and have all trains calling at Kennington, without pretty much redesigning the whole set of tunnels from all directions from scratch.

Any attempt to get Bank route access to a new extension running off the loop (without rebuilding existing tunnels and while retaining access to the station) would require the forking off to happen after the Charing Cross to Morden crossover onto the Bank-Morden route (hence introducing conflicting movements because Bank-extension and Charing Cross-Morden would share some track), and would require those ex-Bank services to go in a new tunnel doing a complete circle to pick up the loop (or alternatively going on some lengthy roundabout route to pick up the new extension quite some way from the station).

 

[AndyHA]

Note to MODS…. This seems to have gone wildly off topic !!

 

[AlastairFraser]

There was a plan some time ago to rebuild Epping station and greatly increase car parking provision, apparently because of increased traffic from the Harlow area because of the fares disparity between TfL Zone 6 and Greater Anglia. Isn't there a fares agreement between Essex County Council which has kept out-of-boundary stations on the Central Line within the zone system?
So I'd guess that this is a political move to highlight fares inequality. Harlow itself is not a wealthy town, being a London overspill 'New Town' and the station is not very conveniently sited on the northern edge of town.

This is the point, it is a lot cheaper on the Tube than paying NR fares into London, I know of many Harlow residents who commute into London this way. The Tube is maybe overkill to Harlow, but a frequent and fast bus rapid transit down to Epping cutting through the Stewards area of Harlow seems to make sense. The tube extension would only need to be about 6 miles because it could cut across the circuitous road network in Harlow and join the current line at Coopersale Common.

 

[AlbertBeale]

This is the point, it is a lot cheaper on the Tube than paying NR fares into London, I know of many Harlow residents who commute into London this way. The Tube is maybe overkill to Harlow, but a frequent and fast bus rapid transit down to Epping cutting through the Stewards area of Harlow seems to make sense. The tube extension would only need to be about 6 miles because it could cut across the circuitous road network in Harlow and join the current line at Coopersale Common.

And it could take over a lane or two of the M11 for part of its route, to save on land-take...

 

[AlastairFraser]

And it could take over a lane or two of the M11 for part of its route, to save on land-take...

Not sure how feasible that would be as the M11 is still relatively busy, but bus lanes in both directions on the A1025 from Harlow Town Centre to the A414 jcn, (already there in one direction some of the way and there is a wide grass verge for another lane), A414 from that junction to the M11 ( rural land on both sides for the vast majority of that section, so putting in bus lanes would be no problem), then a short trip down the M11 in regular traffic (not too busy to slow down the bus that much) to a special bus-only junction at the overbridge over Mount Rd in Fiddlers Hamlet, just east of Epping, plus some bus priority measures or overbridges at roundabouts would cut the Harlow Town Centre to Epping bus journey to 10-15 mins, comparable with a car.

It would not cost nearly as much and the improvements all the way up to the M11 junction could be funded by S106/ Community Infrastructure Levy/Local Enterprise Partnership transport fund money, also it could easily serve the existing bus stops along Second Avenue with minimal time penalty.

Integrated with Oyster/contactless, maybe matching the standard £1.55 fare, this would be a huge hit I think.

 

[Mikey C]

This is the point, it is a lot cheaper on the Tube than paying NR fares into London, I know of many Harlow residents who commute into London this way. The Tube is maybe overkill to Harlow, but a frequent and fast bus rapid transit down to Epping cutting through the Stewards area of Harlow seems to make sense. The tube extension would only need to be about 6 miles because it could cut across the circuitous road network in Harlow and join the current line at Coopersale Common.

i.e. an artificially created traffic flow, caused by Epping being in the wrong zone!

 

[duncanp]

This is the point, it is a lot cheaper on the Tube than paying NR fares into London, I know of many Harlow residents who commute into London this way. The Tube is maybe overkill to Harlow, but a frequent and fast bus rapid transit down to Epping cutting through the Stewards area of Harlow seems to make sense. The tube extension would only need to be about 6 miles because it could cut across the circuitous road network in Harlow and join the current line at Coopersale Common.

If the Central Line was extended to Harlow, the fares would be a lot more expensive than those from Epping. (in Zone 6)

Harlow tube station would most likely be in Zone 9 (like Amersham) which would mean an annual season ticket cost of £3860 , which is comparable with the £3936 for an annual season ticket from Harlow Town to Liverpool Street, but cheaper than an annual season ticket from Harlow Town to Zones 1 - 6 (£5072)

 

[Ralph Ayres]

More likely still, based on recent Pay As You Go extensions such as on GWR, is that fares would remain at their current levels. I don't see why TfL (or more accurately, London residents) would agree to subsidise travel outside London.

 

[Bald Rick]

But an absolute certainty is that it will never happen.

 

[MikeWh]

But an absolute certainty is that it will never happen.

Where's that like button!

 

[southern442]

i.e. an artificially created traffic flow, caused by Epping being in the wrong zone!

You keep saying this but I don't understand what your point is. However this traffic flow came about, naturally or artificially, it is still a traffic flow. Firstly, there's no reason why they wouldn't do a similar thing in Harlow, maybe putting it in zone 7 instead of 9 for example. Additionally the BRT idea mentioned would also mitigate that fact too. I will admit this is heading into speculative territory as it's very unlikely to happen, but hypothetically if it did, things like these that have been mentioned would perhaps strengthen the business case and TfL's income.

 

[AlastairFraser]

i.e. an artificially created traffic flow, caused by Epping being in the wrong zone!

It's actually a great boon for the residents of quite badly deprived Harlow, most of them ex-East Londoners, to visit their extended family and commute to the big job centres in the Docklands and the rest of London.
It is more than justified by the amount of money TfL pull in from fares - Epping tube's existence would be a lot more shaky, would it not be for Harlow residents.

If the Central Line was extended to Harlow, the fares would be a lot more expensive than those from Epping. (in Zone 6)

Harlow tube station would most likely be in Zone 9 (like Amersham) which would mean an annual season ticket cost of £3860 , which is comparable with the £3936 for an annual season ticket from Harlow Town to Liverpool Street, but cheaper than an annual season ticket from Harlow Town to Zones 1 - 6 (£5072)

It's unlikely to happen, but, if it did, Harlow Council would subsidise it to be cheaper than the NR route, no question. Zone 7 to 1-6 would cost only £2948.00, according to TfL.

More likely still, based on recent Pay As You Go extensions such as on GWR, is that fares would remain at their current levels. I don't see why TfL (or more accurately, London residents) would agree to subsidise travel outside London.

The huge patronage of Epping station by Harlow residents, vastly in the excess of what the Epping/Ongar areas could supply itself subsidises their Tube services and the rest of the Central line.
The communities served by ex GWR stations on the now Elizabeth line have their own significant patronages from the adjacent communities- Epping is effectively a parkway station in this context.
Part of the problem are the stupid London boundaries in the area - everything up to Theydon Bois should be split between Havering and Redbridge, the M25 would be a decent boundary. GM does this much better I think.

But an absolute certainty is that it will never happen.

Don't count your chickens just yet! Harlow is due for a major expansion from 87k currently to 143k, a BRT system suddenly looks much more viable, especially without XR2. However, the Tube extension is unlikely, yes.

 

[KC1]

Never in a million years will this happen. As if it wasn’t already unlikely, it’s even moreso now as TfL are skint.

Zero chance.

 

[markburland]

I read through this thread with interest. Fact is: 10,000 homes are due to be added to Harlow and the existing infrastructure can't handle that. So some promises have to be made (and no doubt conveniently forgotten). Harlow has always suffered from having the M11 to the south and the rail and A414 to the north. Traffic flow is a nightmare and looks set to get worse. Apparently everything will be fine though, a few extra bus lanes will fix everything.

 

[Bald Rick]

Fact is: 10,000 homes are due to be added to Harlow and the existing infrastructure can't handle that.

Whilst I agree with the road infrastructure, and various other infrastructure for modern life, there will be plenty on space of the railway for those who want to get to London, Stansted or Cambridge. Probably would have been enough even without Covid, given the new GA fleet.

 

[alex397]

I read through this thread with interest. Fact is: 10,000 homes are due to be added to Harlow and the existing infrastructure can't handle that. So some promises have to be made (and no doubt conveniently forgotten). Harlow has always suffered from having the M11 to the south and the rail and A414 to the north. Traffic flow is a nightmare and looks set to get worse. Apparently everything will be fine though, a few extra bus lanes will fix everything.

I agree more needs to be done about the infrastructure, but I still doubt extending the Central Line will ever become a reality.
The first step needs to be making the bus infrastructure and services much more attractive, and the authorities can’t even seem to do that at the moment.

TfL are still displaying ancient out of date bus timetables at Epping Station and that’s just an incredibly basic thing that can be changed.

 

[rebmcr]

At least Harlow will have the M11 to the south and north, once the new junction is complete.

 

[Mikey C]

At least Harlow will have the M11 to the south and north, once the new junction is complete.

At the time Harlow was designed, the M11 was meant to pass it on the west, as it was going to take the Lea Valley route into London. Unfortunately, the M11 was then switched to follow the Roding Valley route instead, and thus ended up on the wrong (east) side...

 

[simple simon]

Don't count your chickens just yet! Harlow is due for a major expansion from 87k currently to 143k, a BRT system suddenly looks much more viable, especially without XR2. However, the Tube extension is unlikely, yes.

A transport system with underground portions to get past traffic hot-spots and reduce journey times from all districts within Harlow to the existing railway station - ideally trams light rail but it could be built as BRT with gradients etc suited for easy conversion to tramway at a later date.

If buses are used then for added safety the tunnelled portions could use kerb guidance. All is possible - even using 1990s technology (this was done in Essen, Germany).

Whether tram or bus I suppose that battery & super-capacitor equipped vehicles* with opportunity charging at stops would be chosen, although I would prefer trams or trolleybuses with in-motion charging as these do not experience battery top-up charging delays.

*China has some cities that use battery & super-capacitor equipped vehicles as when combined these two energy storage systems offer the best in both onboard energy storage and braking energy recovery.

 

[AlastairFraser]

A transport system with underground portions to get past traffic hot-spots and reduce journey times from all districts within Harlow to the existing railway station - ideally trams light rail but it could be built as BRT with gradients etc suited for easy conversion to tramway at a later date.

If buses are used then for added safety the tunnelled portions could use kerb guidance. All is possible - even using 1990s technology (this was done in Essen, Germany).

Whether tram or bus I suppose that battery & super-capacitor equipped vehicles* with opportunity charging at stops would be chosen, although I would prefer trams or trolleybuses with in-motion charging as these do not experience battery top-up charging delays.

*China has some cities that use battery & super-capacitor equipped vehicles as when combined these two energy storage systems offer the best in both onboard energy storage and braking energy recovery.

Getting to the existing rail stations in Harlow is not an issue for most residents, the road network is decent and public transport is usable. It's the price difference between Epping Tube and Harlow Mill/Town to London that is the killer for demand at the latter too. A BRT to Epping Tube would be much cheaper than several BRT lines around Harlow.

 

[BayPaul]

It's unlikely to happen, but, if it did, Harlow Council would subsidise it to be cheaper than the NR route, no question. Zone 7 to 1-6 would cost only £2948.00, according to TfL.

Would it not be cheaper for Harlow council to just subsidise a price reduction on NR tickets from the existing Harlow stations, rather than building a new line for the primary purpose of undercutting the existing one?

 

[Bald Rick]

Would it not be cheaper for Harlow council to just subsidise a price reduction on NR tickets from the existing Harlow stations, rather than building a new line for the primary purpose of undercutting the existing one?

It would be even cheaper for Harlow council to do neither, which is what will happen!

 

[simple simon]

Getting to the existing rail stations in Harlow is not an issue for most residents, the road network is decent and public transport is usable. It's the price difference between Epping Tube and Harlow Mill/Town to London that is the killer for demand at the latter too. A BRT to Epping Tube would be much cheaper than several BRT lines around Harlow.

In many ways the situation is that Epping should be in a higher number (ie: more expensive) zone.

There are examples from suburban London doing what Harlow people do when they travel to Epping ... avoiding mainline / National Rail services just to benefit from cheaper fares. For example people in Croydon take the Tramlink tram to Wimbledon and then catch the District line. The tram is the same fare as London's buses whilst travelling by the District line means that passengers only pay the less expensive Underground fares.

 

[AlastairFraser]

In many ways the situation is that Epping should be in a higher number (ie: more expensive) zone.

There are examples from suburban London doing what Harlow people do when they travel to Epping ... avoiding mainline / National Rail services just to benefit from cheaper fares. For example people in Croydon take the Tramlink tram to Wimbledon and then catch the District line. The tram is the same fare as London's buses whilst travelling by the District line means that passengers only pay the less expensive Underground fares.

It shouldn't because the Harlow passengers subsidise the existence of Epping tube and the entire Central Line, including much poorer areas in Tower Hamlets/Newham/Waltham Forest, which get a few extra trains an hour out of it. There would not be the same level of ridership at Epping if it were in a higher zone.

Would it not be cheaper for Harlow council to just subsidise a price reduction on NR tickets from the existing Harlow stations, rather than building a new line for the primary purpose of undercutting the existing one?

Treasury would expect a large subsidy to make up the lost income, beyond the means of Harlow Council.

 

[BayPaul]

It would be even cheaper for Harlow council to do neither, which is what will happen!

Oh completely. Why would any council want to subsidise some of it's residents going elsewhere... Hmmm, perhaps certain residents, but they probably aren't the ones who would be taking advantage of this!

Treasury would expect a large subsidy to make up the lost income, beyond the means of Harlow Council.

But you expect that they would be able to subsidise a similar discount on an extended Central line? As BaldRick says, what is clearly going to happen is neither.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Oh completely. Why would any council want to subsidise some of it's residents going elsewhere... Hmmm, perhaps certain residents, but they probably aren't the ones who would be taking advantage of this!


But you expect that they would be able to subsidise a similar discount on an extended Central line? As BaldRick says, what is clearly going to happen is neither.

Maybe, because LU is out of the franchise system, but a LU extension would still be cheaper than the mainline, no need for subsidy. Would be too expensive to extend without big government grants anyway. BRT is the only viable way of getting Harlow on a cheaper direct public transport mode to London anyway.